Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Charts

Creative Commons license

Scott Ingram

CPA, CA, MBA

Realtor

Chalmers House

by Blok 70

Jan

2017

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Market Charts

Introduction

You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??

Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number

you’re seeing due to the 416 or the 905? Is it due to houses or condos? The charts that

follow will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My

focus is the 416, so I pull that out of TREB’s numbers.

I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses and condos, because you are probably more interested in one than the other, and lumping them together

hides a lot of information. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to give

you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.

Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”

$260K YoY

+27.1%

$53K MoM

+4.6%

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Market Charts

Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”

- House prices have increased in January over December for 6 years in a row

- Supply shortage continues, with active

listings 42% YoY in Jan, hitting a record

low for the month- Transactions remained at normal levels

so the lower supply let to months of

inventory (MOI) setting a record low for the month

- Houses are selling in an average of 7

days less than last year

January 2017: Tight Supply Reigns

⌂ $63K YoY

+15.0%

$9K MoM

+1.9%

- Condo sale transactions were at an all-time high last year (23.7K), and January

started off 26% over last year

- Listings are way down ( 56% from last

year’s level)

- More people looking with less condos to

look at led to 17 days less on market and months of inventory sitting at about 1/3 of

last year’s level

Detached $1,3376K / Semi $903K / Row $836K

Jan vs. ‘16: $260K (27.1%)

Jan vs. ‘12: $531K (77%)

5 year avg. annual growth: 12.2%

- Clear year-over-year growth is evident each year

- average price has grown $22K a month in last 12 mos.

- #FOMO

416 Average Sold Price(Dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

Condo Apt $471K / Condo Townhouse $595K

Jan vs. '16: $63K (15.0%)

Jan vs. '12: $142K (41%)

5 year avg. annual growth: 7.1%

- average price has grown $5K a month in last 12 mos.

958

1,1101,074

1,156 1,170 1,157

1,104 1,096

1,183 1,1871,222

1,165

1,218

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$000s Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

421

444

428

452 456 459

438

459 462

474483

476485

300

350

400

450

500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$000s Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Residential Sales Volume(number of sold transactions in the month)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

Jan vs. '16: 6.0%

YTD vs. '16: 6.0% (vs. Prior 5 years: 3.3%)

- Only 22 less sales than the 5 year average of 654

- With a more finite supply, House transactions don’t

vary much from year to year (the prior 5 years stayed

within 4% of the average 5 year volume

Jan vs. '16: 26.0%

YTD vs. '16: 26.0% (vs. Prior 5 years: 40.5%)

- 363 more Condo sales than the 5 year average

indicates a hot start

- Resale Condo supply keeps growing as new units are

built; they’re an option for those priced out of houses

672

1,162

1,513

1,889

2,102 2,066

1,320

1,162

1,508 1,534 1,396

716

632

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1,000

1,609

2,066

2,297

2,468 2,472

2,134 2,217

2,039 2,143

1,941

1,352 1260

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Active Listings(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

Jan vs. '16: 42%

YTD vs. '16: 42% (vs. Prior 5 years: 52%)

- Supply remains extremely low

- Dec was the first time (since stats started in Jan ‘96)

with <1000 active listings. Now we’ve had 2 months in

row, and 10 months in a row with fewer than 70% of

the prior year’s listing.

Jan vs. '16: 56%

YTD vs. '16: 56% (vs. Prior 5 years: 58%)

- Condo supply even worse than Houses

- Jan is the second month in a row with less than half of

the prior year’s listings, and there have been 5 months

in a row below 60% of the prior year’s listings.

1,168 1,300 1,392 1,452 1,633

1,456 1,283

1,119

1,629 1,612 1,307

599 6790

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3,491 3,718

4,028 4,177 4,249

4,041

3,608

3,134 3,111

2,791

2,203

1,397 1529

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Months Of Inventory(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)

Jan vs. '16: 0.7 months (38%)

Jan vs. Prior 5 years: 1.0 months (496%)

- A “balanced market” is 5-7 months of inventory

- Toronto has been in a “seller’s market” for at least 20

years and the trend continues to get more extreme

- Jan marks 12th consecutive new monthly record low

Jan vs. '16: 2.3 months (65%)

Jan vs. Prior 5 years: 2.9 months (70%)

- Condo MOI has been below 2.0 months for 11

consecutive months, the longest time it has remained

below 2.0, and first time under since Jan ’09

- Closest Condo and House MOI has been since Sep ‘09

3.5

2.3

1.91.8 1.7 1.6 1.7

1.4 1.51.3

1.1 1.01.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1.7

1.10.9

0.8 0.8 0.71.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8

1.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Average Days On Market(Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

Jan vs. '16: 6.5 days (27%)

Jan vs. Prior 5 years: 7.5 days (29%)

- New record low for January (prior was 23 in 2015)

- With an extreme seller’s market and a low inventory

of listings, houses that are on the market are being

snapped up quickly.

Jan vs. '16: 17.0 days (44%)

Jan vs. Prior 5 years: 18.7 days (46%)

- New record low for January (prior was 26 in 2010)

- More buyers looking at less listings is speeding up the

sales of condos too, with condos selling in only 56% of

the time it took last year

24

15 13

11 12 10

13 15

12 12 14

18 18

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

39

31

24 23 22 22 23

24 23

21 21

23 22

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Annual Price Increases(December vs. prior December average price, and current month compared to December 2016)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

20 year House performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $48K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.0%.

20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $17K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 4.5%.

19 46

(11)

27 36

2

49

10 12

130

(51)

57 40

22 33

117

54

105

210

53

2 19 12 20 12 3

19 7 11

42

(34)

60

20 4

(6)

29 17 22

65

9

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17YTD

$000s $ IncreasesHouses Condos

7%

17%

(3%)

9% 11%

1%

13%

2% 3%

29%

(9%)

11%7%

3% 5%

17%

7%

12%

22%

6%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17YTD

% IncreasesHouses Condos

14.4

21.6

6.8

19.0

10.3

4.15.3

5.3

7.8

3.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

last 24months

last 12months

last 9months

last 6months

last 3months

$000s

Pace of price growth(30 day rate)

⌂Last 3 months $10,000 $3,500

Last 6 months $18,700 $7,700

Last 9 months $10,100 $5,200

Last 12 months $21,300 $5,200

Last 24 months $14,200 $4,000

⌂

Price growth per month:

Houses – average prices are up $260K over 12 months ago.

Prices generally slow down in December and January, but the last 3 months are still above the 10 year average of a

$5.9K/month increase.

Condos – average prices are up $63K over 12 months ago.

The last 24 months have all been ahead of the 5 year ($1,800/month) and 10 year ($2,100/month) average monthly

increases

416 Market Breakdown

1 year ago: Condos 54% / Houses 45%

5 years ago: Condos 52% / Houses 47%

10 years ago: Condos 45% / Houses 53%

As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more

condos are completed, transaction share should keep

shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter

home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.

While houses were only 41% of sales transaction volume,

in 2016, they accounted for 64% of dollar volume.

Detached72%

Semi20%

Row7%

Share of House Transactions - last 12 months

Houses41%

Condos58%

Share of Transactions - last 12 months

Apartment89%

Townhouse11%

Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.

Having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music

communities, Scott combines his analytical skills and business savvy with his hometown

knowledge and passion to help artists and professionals alike find their next

home. Scott works with the venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc.

brokerage on Queen St. West.

@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram

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