jamesmartininstitute for science and civilization steve rayner james martin institute for science...

JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilizati

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Steve RaynerJames Martin Institute for Science and Civilization

WICKED PROBLEMS:CLUMSY SOLUTIONS


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WICKED PROBLEMS

• Identified by Horst Rittel in late 1960s as characterizing social problems

• Contrasted relatively easy challenges of public health engineering in late 19th & early 20th centuries with late 20th century urban planning

• Also compared puzzle-solving in mathematics & natural science with complexities of social policy (hard/soft science)

• Noted challenges of increasing heterogeneity & value conflicts in modern society (fragmentation of identities)


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CHARACTERISTICS OF WICKED PROBLEMS

• Symptoms of deeper problems• Little room for trial & error learning• Lack a clear set of alternative solutions• Characterized by contradictory certitudes• Have redistributive implications for entrenched interests• Persistent & insoluble

– Coping not solving– Feasibility not optimality


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ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY WICKED

• Basic clean air & water legislation was based on public experience– London pea-soupers in 1952 killed 12,000 people

– Cuyahoga river fires 1936-1969 were highly visible

• Contemporary issues involve complex science not directly apprehended by public & politicians (climate, ozone, POPs)

• Not only look like social issues but incorporate them– Environmental justice

– Sustainable development


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WICKED ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS INCLUDE

• Climate change• Water resources management• Energy production & use• Genetically modified agriculture• Urban planning• Waste disposal• Marine ecosystem protection• Biodiversity loss…


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CLIMATE CHANGE AS A WICKED PROBLEM

• UN FCCC objective is to “stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”

• No agreement on meaning of “dangerous” or “interference”• Based on hierarchical model of ozone regime (simple problem)• Seeks agreement among 195 signatories• Potentially explosive growth in emissions from China & India• Kyoto protocol divisive - embraced by Europe but rejected by

USA & Australia


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CLIMATE CHANGE: THE VIEW FROM EUROPE

• 70-90% of UK population sees climate as a significant problem• 70-90% sees the government as primarily responsible for action • 3 decades of the European project (climate as a handy external

threat to all)• Margaret Thatcher as Green Goddess• Prevalence of precautionary principle (avoid disaster)• Faith in behavioural change


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CLIMATE CHANGE: THE US VIEW

• 60% sees climate as a significant problem• Only 40% looks to the Federal government to lead response• 3 decades of decentralization • George Bush Sr & the “Whitehouse effect” – highlighted

(misrepresented) disagreement• Prevalence of “proportional principle” (benefits and costs)• Faith in technological change


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TAMING WICKED PROBLEMS

• 3 strategies along spectrum from reductionist to holistic (Roberts)

– Hierarchical – simplify issues & apply routines– Competitive – use expertise to control resources– Egalitarian – open the problem to more stakeholders

• Each reflects a coherent organizational world view which shapes problem definition


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Wicked - Conflicting

Worldviews

Complex - Clinical Consultancy

Tame – Applied Science

Uncertainty/ignorance

DecisionStakes

High

High

Low

CONTESTED CHARACTERIZATION (RAVETZ)


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SEARCH FOR TRANSCENDENT AUTHORITY

• Sees conflicting values as a problem for policy• Demands “science-based” or “evidence-based” policy • Attachment to idea that science determines policy (nature as a

trump card)• More research is always needed• Problems expand to incorporate more technical disciplines

(IPCC)• But a surfeit of science is indeterminate (US NAPAP)• Alternative is to make a virtue of necessity


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Hierarchical

EgalitarianCompetitive

A DYNAMIC SOLUTION SPACE

Solution space


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PROFLIGACY: AN EGALITARIAN STORY

• Consumption is the underlying problem• Environmental degradation is symptomatic of wider malaise• Loss of harmony with nature & each other in pursuit of profit &

growth • Nature is fragile & the economy is forgiving• Heroes are outspoken climate scientists & activists• Villains are greedy corporations• Problem is urgent – time is compressed• Solution is behavioural, requiring precaution & frugality


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THE CRIES OF THE CORALS (LEFALE)

Who cares about coral reefs?” I often heard in the corridors of the UN buildings…. I care. I listen to the cries of millions of polyps that make up the corals. Why? Because there is more at stake for us all than just the death of polyps and corals.

What is causing corals to die lies at the core of the way we humans live….Dead corals are the victims of injustices…of greed, of selfishness….It is an act of genocide….

The coral polyp’s own world mirrors the human experience – the cries for freedom from foreign debt, poverty, starvation, the cries to change lifestyles, not the climate, the cries to stop burning fossil fuels! To ignore the death of coral reefs is, I believe, to ignore the cries of many of the world’s people.


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PLANNING: A HIERARCHICAL STORY

• Lack of planning & weak global governance is the underlying problem

• Both the global commons & the global economy require monitoring and managing within limits

• Heroes are those scientists, civil servants, NGO representatives, & enlightened politicians building management structures for the global commons

• Villains are complacent governments who won’t sign up (US & Australia)

• Long-term view – Rome wasn’t built in a day• Solution is diplomatic & regulatory


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A NEW INSTITUTIONAL ORDER (UN HDR)

The challenge is to find the rules and institutions for stronger governance …to preserve the advantages of global competition, but also to provide enough space for human, community and environmental resources….

Some of the key elements of an improved international architecture:- A stronger and more coherent UN system…A global central bank…A world

investment trust…A world environment agency….

A Life Observatory should be established to systematically monitor major ecosystems…. Long-term planning should factor-in projected changes in climate and changes to specific ecosystems….

Intergovernmental processes tend to be difficult to organize and slow to execute, but they are the only realistic way to address cross-border pollution and ecosystem degradation.


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PROBLEM WHAT PROBLEM? A COMPETITIVE STORY

• Problem is insufficient scepticism – science is uncertain & technological progress rapid

• The economy is fragile & nature is forgiving • Heroes are technological innovators & venture capitalists• Villains are panic-prone environmentalists & planners trying to

pick winners• Short term focus – other issues are more pressing (Lomborg)• Solution, if there is a climate problem, will be to allow market

forces to work


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HANDS OFF THE MARKET (NEF)

On the whole society’s problems and challenges are best dealt with by people and companies interacting with each other freely and without interference from the state. We do not know whether the world is definitively warming…. If the world is warming, we do not know what is causing the change – man or nature. We do not know whether a warmer world would be a good or a bad thing….Until the science of climate change is better understood, no government action should be undertaken beyond elimination of subsidies and other distortions of the market.


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ALL THREE STORIES

• Are elegant• Are internally consistent and logically argued• Are irreducible to one another• Give plausible but conflicting accounts• Define what sort of evidence is legitimate and credible• Are immune to falsification by appeals to scientific facts• Combine to create a wicked problem


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THE GOOD NEWS

• Individually each story is only a partial vision, but collectively each fills in a perspective on the problem that the others cannot entertain – none is entirely right, all are partially wrong

• Policies based on only one or two of these visions will fail to grapple with its wickedness

• Together, they offer a dynamic plural, argumentative system of policy definition

• Omitting any one voice also leads to loss of legitimacy and public trust


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THE BAD NEWS

• Climate regime is overwhelmingly based in the hierarchical story• Focuses overwhelmingly on emissions reductions over impacts• Assumes policies will be expensive - therefore requiring

monitoring & compliance• Regime represents 14 years of negotiation• Has minimal goals that will not make a difference• Is rejected by major players (USA & Australia)• Kyoto has been represented as “the only game in town” – What

would be a viable alternative?


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CLUMSY SOLUTIONS (SHAPIRO)

• Problem of selecting judges (1988)• Society & individuals are committed to conflicting values (rule-of

law, democracy, effectiveness)• Importance of essential contestation• Need to avoid alienation of significant constituencies• Importance of maintaining “a set of values over time”


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A CLUMSY CLIMATE STRATEGY

• Increase initial focus on adaptation – emissions reduction is somebody else’s problem (Europe) or just too costly (US)

• Deal with issues at lowest possible level of decision making – nations, provinces, cities

• Focus international emissions reduction efforts on smallest number of players – fewer than 10 really matter

• Reverse global collapse of energy R&D funding – 9 countries fund 95% of R&D

• Focus on processes rather than targets & timetables• Consider benefits of international competition as well as

cooperation and coercion (tipping points)


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KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF CLUMSY SOLUTIONS

• Observe law of minimum requisite variety (3 voices)– Clumsiness is not reducible to public participation

• All voices heard & responded to • Are emergent & often informal

– US nuclear power settlement


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CHALLENGES FOR CLUMSY APPROACHES

• Media & voters expect policy makers to fix problems• Policy makers demand scientific bottom lines for decision

making, even though they don’t use them• Scientists are committed to improving knowledge, so hold out

unrealistic expectations to policymakers• The “hammer problem”

– Success of rational choice for solving simple and complex problems exacerbates expectations

– Claims that there are “no alternatives” to rational choice tools


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THE CLUMSY IMPERATIVE

• Democracy is not merely a design problem: It is a challenge to the imagination (VISVANATHAN)

• Embracing clumsiness moves us from techniques for selecting among well-defined alternatives towards new skills for creating imaginative solutions


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Marco Verweij & Michael Thompson (eds)

Palgrave, London, September 2006

jamesmartininstitute for science and civilization steve rayner james martin institute for science...

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