jakob donner-amnell 5.2 - uef
TRANSCRIPT
Recent and future trends in (bio)energy
Jakob Donner-Amnell 5.2.2016
Outline
Why is there a need for foresight in bio (and other) energy developments?
What is foresight and how can it be made?
Tell the future! A short foresight exercise
Factors affecting bio energy developments in the longer term
- and a bunch of open questions
Recent global energy-related trends (main source: IEA)
An energy transition is under way in many parts of the world Renewables stand for 13,5 % of total supply, 21,7 % of electricity generation and
50 % of new power generation (with solar PV and wind in key roles). Grid parity (as cheap as any other forms) has been reached by renewables in a growing number of countries.
Energy use and carbon emissions are still growing Energy efficiency, decarbonising end use sectors (transport etc), securing sufficient investment (in low-carbon capacity) and robust policies remain as big challenges – and the same applies to really cutting emissions. (JDA: The climate pledges (for COP21) are positive, but far from sufficient steps – and not binding. )
Oil prices have been falling sharply and coal´s momentum is gone Low price level (below 100 USD/bl) is predicted to prevail at least until early 2020s or even much longer – possibly holding back the energy transition (especially in transport).
Bio-based energy has been growing only modestly 1990-2014 Solid biofuels are still the biggest area in renewable energy, but liquid biofuels and biogases have long been the only clear growth segments in it. In advanced biofuels, development has been bleak and the future pathway is unclear (despite high hopes attached).
Recent trends challenge many bio energy-related beliefs
EU´s, China´s and some other actors´ targets for renewable energy have long been assumed to be met by massive use and import of bio mass. This trend has lost strength.
Global demand of woody bio mass has been assumed to be on the rise, due to increasing production of pulp, advanced biofuels, bio chemicals, and bioenergy. The evidence is only scattered, it is no strong and general trend.
The amount of industrial plantations (eucalyptus, pine, oil palm) has continued to increase since 1960s, partly replacing natural forest or agricultural use of land. This trend exists, but many factors threaten it.
Since 1990s, a growing part of plantation produce and land use has been used in energy production, as chips/pellets, in production of bio fuels or through use of sidestreams. The trend exists, but has not gained much more pace in recent years.
MANY TRUTHS/BELIEFS RELATED TO BIO ENERGY AND FORESTS HAVE TO BE CHANGED, CHECKED OR UPDATED
Some clear reasons to present trends can be easily found
- Uncertainty concerning policies and subsidies
- Low(er than expected) prices for fossil fuels after 2008 (low demand, new sources, no restrictions of production)
- Carbon trade has not offered any strong incentive since long
- Production costs for bio energy have stayed roughly the same, but decreased for many other forms of renewable energy
- Fear of rising feedstock prices and sustainability issues keeps investments in bio-based energy on a modest level
The role of bio energy in the future is far from clear and can be affected by many factors and unprecedented developments.
Two different bio energy futures – how come?
In recent years, the future of bio energy and forest/land use has been described in two very different ways:
1. ”Maximum use”. Land/forest will be used much more than today for present and new purposes. It is important to establish more plantations and to speed up productivity in land/forest use. Bio energy is a very central product/function.
2. ”Balanced, efficient and sustainable use”. Arable land is a scarce resource and its volume/productivity can be threatened by over-use, drought and floods, lack of fertilizers etc. Therefore, the most important task is to work for a good balance between different uses (food, fuel, fiber etc) and to avoid over-use of land/forests. Bio energy is one product/function among others.
To plan for the future, to imagine or explore it is not a new thing
The human race has always prepared for the future in some way
Planning has been an element in most organised societies,
calculating present and future resources has been one typical part
To know and to take care of the resource base has been seen important (agriculture, forests, minerals…)
In forestry, long time spans are typical (10, 50, 150 years or more)
To imagine what might happen in the future has also been typical
Many methods in use also before, from oracles and art to science
As a distinct activity, future studies started after WW2
Big changes had taken place, ”normal science” had not foreseen them
Therefore, there was a clear need for wide understanding of the future
Different themes, methods and approaches have been in use since then
Future studies is an own academic discipline, but most of its methods come from social sciences
Also states, companies, economic sectors, international organisations etc.
do and use future studies to inform their planning and decision-making (policy)
- usually foresight is the expression for studies/exercises of different kinds
Science and policy need each other, but there is also some tension in this relation
A shift has taken place: from ”knowing/predicting the future”
to ”exploring and preparing for unknown futures”
This is because the world is more complex, interconnected and surprising than before – also exact predictions and experts anyway get some important factors wrong
Nobody really knows the future, but everybody can gain from preparing for it, both for the ”typical future” and for the more surprising alternatives (”Plan B”)
The present world contains many features that nobody imagined 10, 20 or 50 years ago – this implies that also the future will contain features that seem ”impossible” today
The decisions/choices we make influence the future to some extent
– we should remember this
Modelling
Extrapolation
Indicators
Benchmarking
Quantitative
Cross-impact
Bibliometrics
Creativity – Strongly influenced by imagination In
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Evidence – Strongly influenced by facts and data
Science fiction
Scanning
Brainstorming
Essays / Scenario writing
Conferences / Seminars
Wild cards
SWOT analysis
Expert Panels
Genius forecasting
Scenario workshop
Morphological analysis
Interviews
Literature review
Citizen Panels
Relevance trees / Logic charts
Backcasting
Role Play/Acting
Roadmapping
Quantitative Scenarios/SMIC
Delphi
System/Structural analysis
Voting / Polling
Gaming-simulation
Stakeholders Mapping
Key/Critical technologies Multi-criteria
Patent analysis
Qualitative
Semi-quantitative
Some typical methods in future studies and foresight
Forecasting/extrapolating
Backcasting
Scenarios
Delphi inquiries
Literature reviews
Interviews with experts
These methods have been widely used also when focusing on forest, energy etc
EXAMPLE: WORLD FUTURE SCENARIOS In 2005-6, it was possible to find many signs indicating that the fast process of
globalization of the last 15 years might not continue,
at least not in the same way as before
In a study made by Future Forum on Forests a multidisciplinary group of experts
constructed
four different world future scenarios
on the basis of six factors - economy, international politics, energy, environment,
culture, and technology
For every factor, 2 main themes were picked and 2 alternatives for each = 4 outcomes
Then, the separate outcomes were combined into 4 ”possible worlds”,
containing both upsides and questions causing tension
Homestead (isolationism) - might appear as a result of big conflicts - a return to nation-based development - tradeflows might slow down - less concern for global problems - regulation mainly national
World parliament (global consensus) -might appear as a reaction to global problems - global regulation of many issues on the basis of sustainable development - strong public sector - partly even too much control
McWorld (free market) - close to the neoliberal ideology - economy rules, politics and environment have to adjust - regulation is market-based and does not restrict the economy
Zapatista (”stormy weather”) - unpredictable development: trade wars, strange and changing coalitions, big differences - global regulation does not evolve because big conflicts of interest
What might the future look like? Different scenarios might come true at the same time with different
strength in different parts of the world
1
2
M c W o r l d
W o r l d P a r l i a m e n t
Z a p a t i s t a
H o m e s t e a d
11.9.2001 2015 1980 1990
3
DEVELOPMENT CAN TAKE MANY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS IN THE FUTURE
- There are always many alternatives – despite the dominating rhetoric in economy and
politics
- Our interpretation of the future has a strong influence on the decisions and plans
we make: WHAT KIND OF FUTURE ARE WE PREPARING FOR?
-Any one future is unsufficient as a basis for planning or decision-making.
- Also the forest sector/use of natural resources should be studied in a broad perspective
Succesful foresight is… • innovative
• multidisciplinary
• utilises both scientific and tacit knowledge
• client oriented and participatory
• autonomous and independent
• international
• When the criteria are met,
foresight offers a valuable tool for
strategic planning and decision
making.
• Potential pitfall: lack of
independency!
How could foresight be used to study bio energy developments?
Bio energy is often studied as a separate theme, and the (forest) resource base is a typical focus
Some other questions are typically touched upon: other uses of forest/land, technology, demand, policy, prices, costs, attitudes, obstacles etc
Still, bio energy is typically studied from ”inside”. The ”outside world” is considered mostly through separate factors that might either speed up or slow down bio energy development
As a big part of the dynamics is missing, numerous studies and forecasts have ended up in numbers, projections and conclusions far from reality, resulting in weak impact on debate/policy
If studies on bio energy are to have real impact, they have to be broad enough in scope and avoid being trapped in too narrow perspectives and assumptions
Bio energy is one part of renewable energy, which is one part of energy production, which is one part of economy and human life…
All these are affected by a big amount of different economic, political, social, ecological, and cultural factors, developments, and events, which should be taken into account
WORLD DEVELOPMENT CAN TURN INTO MANY DIRECTIONS Examples of different outcomes in certain questions
World economy Indebtness and resource Growth triggered by new economies, prices as hindrances population growth and bioeconomy
World trade Globalisation deepens Trade blocs/regional solutions
Geopolitics Own interests dominate Common interests dominate
Climate policy Rapid development Modest progress
Energy Low price, old forms of High price, renewables dominate production dominate
Land use No scarcity, no price hike Scarcity and conflicts between uses, land price hikes
Food security Guaranteed by effectivity Endangered by many factors
Technology Incremental development Breakthroughs and /or failures
Consumption Direct consequence Active process, surprises possible
The future of bio energy and the key factors affecting it
Your turn to tell the future! What kind of world in 2036?
Discuss 10 minutes in groups of 4-5 people:
1) Which factors might have the strongest impact on the future of bio energy?
- Make first a list of factors with notable impact (think of surprises, too)
- Try then to agree on the 3-4 most important factors, and their impact
2) What is the role of bio energy in the future?
You can give one answer or present two different scenarios
3) Each group describes the future for the audience (time: 2 minutes/group)
Background factors and bio energy futures Summary of foresight exercise during the lecture
Background factors
- Population growth
- Price of oil
- Climate changes
- Technological developments, in bio energy and/or in nuclear energy (fusion energy)
- Food production/competition concerning land use
- Energy and climate policies
Bio energy futures
- Its role gets stronger than at present (at least in some countries)
- Its role stays at the same level as today
- Its role gets less important than now
- Independency of import of fossil energy gains strength
Background factors and bioenergy futures A summary of the group reports during the lecture (in 2015)
Factors affecting bioenergy developments:
- Shortage of fossil fuels
- Competition about land/feedstock prices; wars/conflicts arising partly from resource scarcity
- Climate change
- Financing bio energy
- Technology developments (renewables, fusion, nitrogen etc) and new energy sources
- Population growth; emigration; where the population lives (urban/rural division)
- Shift of power (between Europe, Asia, North America, South America, Africa)
Futures
Decrease of fossil fuels; wind, solar and bioenergy in a stronger position
Technology developments help renewebles to gain strength
Urbanization increases energy demand
”Bad extreme”: Conflicts/competition versus ”Good extreme”: Technology helps to solve many challenges and shortages
Small, concentrated nutrition and bioenergy pills (instead of big piles of food and biomass…)
What might evolve until 2050: Super cycle, Zero sum game - or something different?
The direction of many factors and their impact are loaded with unsecurity
Predictions and views about the future get often some numerical things right
– but often they do not catch political and cultural change/dynamics
Futurists can at present be divided into two very different ”camps”
- The optimistic ”Super cycle” leans strongly on bio economy and mankind´s ability to learn/change
- The pessimistic ”Zero sum game” stresses conflicts of interests and the absence of functioning international mechanisms for steering development
But some factors having a great impact in 2050 can be stated:
population growth, the growing importance of renewable resources
– and surprises (in technology, economy, culture, politics, climate etc)
The resource prices have been on the rise since 2002 (Source: Jeremy Grantham/GMO 2011)
What can be said about the future with some certainty?
Mankind is facing very big challenges this century World population is growing, more energy and food is needed, also other human needs
exist – demand is growing Oil will get expensive at some point and the use of fossil fuels should be decreased To increase energy and food production a lot can prove to be difficult, because important
resources such as oil, phosphate, water and arable land are scarce Industry, agriculture, traffic/transport, construction/housing should be transformed into a
low carbon, energy efficient direction - this is a huge task! Renewable resources are essential in the future and products based on them have very
good prospects in the long run The biocapacity of the globe does not suffice to meet all present or future needs The ”coping capacity” of world´s ecosystems might be endangered, if use is too big and
harsh This poses big challenges for economic, political and cultural institutions: how govern such
a development? How strike a balance between different interests and needs? How secure well-being and trust of citizens?
Future of bio energy?
Investment in bio energy depends strongly on:
1. Price level of other forms of energy production (fossil, nuclear, solar, wind etc)
2. Price level of feedstock
3. The efficiency of the production technology
4. The volume of public/state support and the political incentive structures
These factors depend in turn on other factors, such as:
- energy supply and demand
- other forms of land use (especially food production)
- the need for climate policy measures (especially cutting carbon emissions)
- political/ideological goals: energy security, food security, economic interests
Some tentative conclusions:
In land use, food might be a more central function than fiber or energy
If land prices rise a lot, bio energy based on land gets expensive
Renewable energy in other forms can more easily keep its costs down
Scenarios and plans built on large use of biomass for energy contain a big price risk
What will the next long wave be based upon?
Never be too sure: what if these or some other signals grow strong or stay weak?
If quick growth of renewable energy production continues, it might cause big effects:
- energy prices will decrease a lot all over the place
- many present energy assets (oil, coal, and other) might lose much of their value and turn into ”stranded assets” affecting actors with big stakes in them
Food production might be a potential cause for concern and conflict.
What if population growth is not continuing as predicted lately?
What if legitimacy of states, politics, authorities, market actors etc
decreases substantially?
The biggest open question might e whether mankind has sufficient skill and trust to agree on and implement solutions for the common good.