isu-isu strategik pebangunan ekonomi nasional · economic institutions: indonesia “in making”...

1

ISU-ISU STRATEGIK PEBANGUNAN EKONOMI NASIONAL

Faisal Basri20 April 2015

Bagian IPerkembangan Politik

2

From extractive to inclusive political and economic institutions: Indonesia “in making”

Politicalcompetition

InstitutionalCapacity

Low High

Low

Orde Baru (Soeharto):• High concentration of

political power• Double functions of

military• Governance effectiveness• Systemic and organized

corruption

Current government: • High dispersion of political

power• Government

ineffectiveness• High corruption• High degree of local

autonomy

High???

(Can not step back)

Future government: • Government effectiveness• Low corruption• High degree of local

autonomy & competition• Rules of law and rules of

the game

Penegak hukum bergantung selera “penguasa”

Senin, 05/10/2009 18:09 WIB Chandra & Bibit Tersangka

Mabes Polri: Penetapan Tersangka Tak Bisa Dipraperadilankan Irwan Nugroho – detikNews

Jakarta - Mabes Polri meminta hakim

menolak gugatan praperadilan Masyarakat Anti Korupsi Indonesia (MAKI) atas penetapan tersangka wakil ketua KPK nonaktif, Chandra M Hamzah dan Bibit Samad Rianto. Alasannya, penetapan status tersangka tak bisa dipraperadilankan. …..

Sumber:http://news.detik.com/read/2009/10/05/1

80901/1215782/10

17 Februari 2015

Kepala Bareskrim: Status Tersangka BisaDipraperadilankan

Sumber: http://www.konfrontasi.com/content/politik/kepala-bareskrim-status-tersangka-bisa-dipraperadilankan

3

Presiden ibarat CEO menghadapi pemegang saham pengendali

Presiden bukan dari elit partai dan bukan pengendali partai politik baru pertama kali terjadi

Presiden tidak terkait dengan struktur kekuasaan Orde baru tak memikul beban masa lalu.

Rakyat sebagai pemegang saham mayoritas kalah pengaruh ketimbang pemegang saham pengendali (KIH)

Ada pula “KMP” (Kalla-Megawati-Paloh) yang masih mencengkeram.

Presiden butuh penopang dari luar agar tidak terkerangkeng (civil society: Tim Independen /Tim-9, media massa, media sosial, relawan)

Perlu waktu untuk konsolidasi kekuasaan.

Younger figures emerge, offering fresher

perspectives with vision, starting as local

change leaders: Tri Rismaharini (Surabaya Mayor), Ridwan Kamil (Bandung Mayor), Jokowi-Ahok (Jakarta Governor and Deputy), Abdullah Azwar Anas (Banyuwangi Regent), Nurdin Abdullah (Bantaeng Regent), Bima Arya (Bogor Mayor), Hugua (Wakatobi Regent), Suyoto (Bojonegoro Regent), Muda Mahendra (Kuburaya former Regent), Ganjar Pranowo (Central Java Governor)

Chain effect: rising to the occasion

Jokowi as an alternative figure for

leading the nation?

“We must accept finite disappointment, but we must never lose infinite hope.”

~ Martin Luther King Jr.

Sumber energi baru: the rise of local leaders

4

Bagian IIPerkembangan Ekonomi dan Ancaman

Middle Income Trap

The rise and decline of Indonesian economy: GDP growth 1961-2014 (%)

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, and BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

6.1

-2.3

1.1

12.0

9.8

6.2 6.0

9.2

1.1

8.5

3.5

9.18.4

-13.1

5.76.3

4.6

6.2

6.0

5.6

5.0

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

The fall ofOld Order

Pertamina crisis

Oil price collapse

Economic crisis and the end of New Order/Soeharto era

Global financial crisis

Trendline-polynomial

5

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia..

Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %

Penurunan pertumbuhan tampaknya telah mencapai titik terendah pada Q4-2014

4.5

4.14.3

5.6

5.9

6.3

5.8

6.8

6.4 6.5 6.5 6.56.3 6.4

6.2 6.1 6.0

5.85.6

5.7

5.25.1

4.95.0

3

4

5

6

7

8

•

Sector 2012 2013 2014 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14

1. Agriculture 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.7

2. Mining 1.5 1.3 -0.2 -0.2 -1.2 2.0 3.9 -0.3 -0.2 0.3

3. Manufacturing 5.7 5.6 4.9 5.9 5.8 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.6

4. Utilities 6.4 5.6 5.5 6.6 6.6 3.8 6.6 6.3 5.8 6.2

5. Construction 7.5 6.6 6.6 7.0 6.9 6.2 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.3

6. Trade & hospitality 8.1 5.9 4.6 6.5 6.5 6.1 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.2

7. Transport & Comm 10.0 10.2 9.3 10.0 11.5 9.9 10.3 10.2 9.5 9.0

8. Finance 7.2 7.6 6.0 8.4 8.1 7.6 6.8 6.2 6.2 6.0

9. Other Services 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.5 4.5 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.7 6.5

GDP/Total 6.2 5.8 5.0 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.2 5.1 5.0

Sources: BPS.

GDP growth by sector

6

GDP growth by sector (2010 series)

Sectors 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Share 2014

Agriculture, forestry & fishery 3.53 3.96 4.59 4.20 4.18 13.38

Mining and Quarrying 4.10 4.29 3.02 1.74 0.55 9.82

Manufacturing industry 3.79 6.26 5.62 4.49 4.63 21.02

Electricity and gas 8.09 5.69 10.06 5.23 5.57 1.08

Water, waste management, cesspit and recycling 6.74 4.73 3.34 4.06 3.05 0.07

Construction 6.84 9.02 6.56 6.11 6.97 9.88

Wholesale & retail trade, cars & motorcycles reparations 9.08 9.66 5.40 4.71 4.84 13.38

Transportation and warehousing 7.14 8.31 7.11 8.38 8.00 4.27

Accommodation, food and beverages 6.31 6.86 6.64 6.80 5.91 3.14

Information and communication 14.86 10.02 12.28 10.39 10.02 3.50

Finance and insurance 5.68 6.97 9.54 9.09 4.93 3.88

Real estate 8.72 7.68 7.41 6.54 5.00 2.79

Business services 8.37 9.24 7.44 7.91 9.81 1.57

Public adm., defense, and compulsory social security 7.89 6.43 2.13 2.38 2.49 3.84

Education 11.79 6.68 8.22 8.20 6.29 3.29

Health and social activities 5.90 9.00 7.97 7.83 8.01 1.03

Other services 7.94 8.22 5.76 6.41 8.92 1.56

Gross domestic product 6.38 6.17 6.03 5.58 5.02 100.00Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

4.6

2.6

3.93.5 3.4 3.5

3.7 3.9

3.4

2.2

3.8

5.14.7

3.7 3.6

5.34.9

5.3

6.3

7.0

8.0

7.4

8.8 8.7

7.1

8.6

7.1 7.2 7.1

6.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Non-tradable

GDP

Tradable

Low quality of growth, 2000-2014

Perc

ent

7

Source: BPS.

Peranan industri manufaktur terus merosot

Perc

ent

of

GD

P

GDP growth by expenditure (2010 series)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Share 2014

Private consumption 4.26 5.05 5.49 5.38 5.14 56.07

Non-profit private consumption -3.7 5.54 6.68 8.18 12.43 1.18

General government consumption 3.99 5.52 4.53 6.93 1.98 9.54

Gross domestic fixed capital formation 6.69 8.86 9.13 5.28 4.12 32.57

Exports of goods and services 15.28 14.77 1.61 4.17 1.02 23.72

Less imports of goods and services 16.58 15.03 8 1.86 2.19 24.48

Gross domestic product 6.38 6.17 6.03 5.58 5.02 100.00Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

8

Indonesia is the world’s 10 largest producer of goods and services

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

16.800

16.158

6.774

4.624

3.493

3.461

3.012

2.437

2.388

2.320

United States

China

India

Japan

Germany

Russian Federation

Brazil

France

Indonesia

United Kingdom

(Purchasing power parity (PPP), billions of international dollars, 2013)

Asean GDP, PPP

Note: Data for Myanmar is not availableSource: World Bank, World Development Indicators

2.388

964

692

643

475

425

46

33

30

Indonesia

Thailand

Malaysia

Philippines

Vietnam

Singapore

Cambodia

Lao PDR

Brunei Darussalam

Billions of international dollars, 2013

9

Berawal dari titik yang hampir sama dengan negara tetangga

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,00019

69

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Indonesia Korea China Thailand Malaysia

Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, Atlas method (current US$)

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators online, downloaded on 5 March 2014.

Indonesia sempat lebih tinggi ketimbang China

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

Indonesia China

GDP per capita (current US$)


10

Baru memasuki lower-middle income

880

1,270

1,550

1,580

2,500

3,420

3,620

5,210

7,610

9,640

9,820

11,630

12,700

22,670

36,560

47,210

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Cambodia (180)

Lao PDR (171)

Vietnam (163)

India (162)

Philippines (153)

Indonesia (137)

Timor-Leste (133)

Thailand (117)

South Africa (96)

Mexico (88)

Malaysia (86)

Brazil (79)

Russia (72)

Korea (49)

Hong Kong (35)

Singapore (23)

(x) Rank


High income

GNI per capita, Atlas method, current US$, 2012

≥ US$ 12,616

Income group: Economies are divided according to 2012 GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. The groups are: low income, $1,035 or less; lower middle income, $1,036 - $4,085; upper middle income, $4,086 -$12,615; and high income,$12,616 or more.

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, and East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2013.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Timor-Leste & Indonesia

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Timor-Leste Indonesia

http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/world-bank-atlas-method

11

Indonesia sangat lama bertengger di low-income group

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Gross National Income per capita, Atlas method (current US$)

Lowincome

Lower-middle income


Indonesia: avoiding the trap

Source: Adopted from world Bank, Indonesia: Avoiding The Trap, Development Policy Review, May 2014.

Wel

fare

RISING?

Nusantara melaju

FLOATING?

alon-alon asal kelakon

20302014

12

Income per capita reached by countries when their demographic dividend ended, vs. Indonesia (2030)

1982 20302030

Assuming10 percentReal GDP growth 2013-2030

Assuming6 percentReal GDP growth 2013-2030

199120001970

Source: World Bank, “Indonesia: Avoiding The Trap,” Jakarta, May 2014, p.19.

Pengertian middle-income trap

Suatu negara mengalami perangkap pendapatan menengah (middle-income trap) jika sudah berada di kelompok pendapatan menengah berdasarkan ukuran pendapatan per kapita, tetapi tak kunjung menembus ke kelompok pendapatan tinggi.

Bank Dunia membagi perekonomian menurut kelompok pendapatan dengan menggunakan Gross National Income (GNI) per kapita tahun 2012 yang dihitung berdasarkan World Bank Atlas method sebagai berikut:

• berpendapatan rendah, $1,035 atau kurang;

• berpendapatan menengah bawah, $1,036 - $4,085;

• berpendapatan menengah atas, $4,086 - $12,615; dan

• berpendapatan tinggi, $12,616 atau lebih.

13

Ciri negara yang alami middle-income trap

Menurut Asian Development Bank (ADB), ciri-ciri negara yang masuk perangkap middle-income trap adalah:

1) nisbah investasi (investment to GDP ratio) rendah,

2) pertumbuhan industri manufaktur rendah;

3) diversifikasi industri terbatas; dan

4) kondisi pasar kerja buruk.

Negara Amerika Latin tak berhasil mengatasi ciri pertama, sebaliknya negara Asia Timur yang tak mengalami middle-income trap memenuhinya. Berdasarkan ciri pertama ini, tampaknya China juga akan memenuhinya.

Perekonomian Asia Timur yang telah berhasil masuk ke kelompok negara berpendapatan tinggi adalah Singapura, Hong Kong, Korea, dan Taiwan. Sementara itu, negara di Amerika Latin masih mengalami middle-income trap.

Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines China

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

14

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Electric power consumption (kWh per capita)

66

36

521

416

392

335

1,516

1,750

1,077

2,733

5,209

7,516

6,311

110

164

647

680

684

1,073

2,316

2,438

3,298

4,246

6,486

8,404

10,162

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Myanmar

Cambodia

Philippines

Indonesia

India

Vietnam

Thailand

Brazil

China

Malaysia

Russia

Singapore

Korea

2011 2001

Bagian IIISumber Daya Manusia,

Perlindungan Sosial, dan Teknologi

15

Human development index (HDI): rank & valueRank2013 (2012) Country 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 (1) Norway 0.793 0.841 0.910 0.935 0.939 0.941 0.943 0.944

5 (5) United States 0.825 0.858 0.883 0.897 0.908 0.911 0.912 0.914

9 (12) Singapore .. 0.744 0.800 0.840 0.894 0.896 0.899 0.901

15 (15) Hong Kong 0.698 0.775 0.810 0.839 0.882 0.886 0.889 0.891

15 (16) Korea 0.628 0.731 0.819 0.856 0.882 0.886 0.888 0.891

17 (16) Japan 0.772 0.817 0.858 0.873 0.884 0.887 0.888 0.890

30 (30) Brunei Darussalam 0.740 0.786 0.822 0.838 0.844 0.846 0.852 0.852

57 (57) Russian Federation .. 0.729 0.717 0.750 0.773 0.775 0.777 0.778

62 (62) Malaysia 0.577 0.641 0.717 0.747 0.766 0.768 0.770 0.773

79 (80) Brazil 0.545 0.612 0.682 0.705 0.739 0.740 0.742 0.744

89 (89) Thailand 0.503 0.572 0.649 0.685 0.715 0.716 0.720 0.722

91 (93) China 0.423 0.502 0.591 0.645 0.701 0.710 0.715 0.719

108 (108) Indonesia 0.471 0.528 0.609 0.640 0.671 0.678 0.681 0.684

117 (118) Philippines 0.566 0.591 0.619 0.638 0.651 0.652 0.656 0.660

118 (119) South Africa 0.569 0.619 0.628 0.608 0.638 0.646 0.654 0.658

121 (121) Viet Nam 0.463 0.476 0.563 0.598 0.629 0.632 0.635 0.638

128 (129) Timor-Leste .. .. 0.465 0.505 0.606 0.606 0.616 0.620

135 (135) India 0.639 0.431 0.483 0.527 0.570 0.581 0.583 0.586

136 (137) Cambodia 0.251 0.403 0.466 0.536 0.571 0.575 0.579 0.584

139 (139) Lao, PDR 0.340 0.395 0.473 0.511 0.549 0.560 0.565 0.569

150 (150) Myanmar 0.328 0.347 0.421 0.472 0.514 0.517 0.520 0.524

187 (186) Niger 0.191 0.218 0.262 0.293 0.323 0.328 0.335 0.337Source: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Human Development Report 2014.

Sesat pikir luar biasa

Nyata-nyata bertentangan dengan Undang-Undang No.20/2003 Pasal 4 ayat 1: Perlakuan diskriminatif antara sekolah/guru negeri. Harusnya pendekatan fungsi, bukan status.

Dikerangkeng oleh birokrasi pendidikan dan pengkotak-kotakan: guru matematika di madrasah dibina oleh Kemenag, di pendidikan umum oleh Kemendikbud.

Kurang guru tapi IKIP dikerdilkan

Pendekatan input, bukannya output

Kerap jalan pintas

Menyamakan guru dan dosen: kementerian Pendidikan Dasar-Menengah dan Kementerian Pendidikan Tinggi dan Ristek

16

Pendekatan output ketimbang input

Pemerintah tidak pernah berani menetapkan output yang terukur. UU hanya mencantumkan tujuan yang bersifat normatif.

Output = f (Family, Teachers, School inputs, Peers, Innate ability)

Output: Math, Science, Reading, Problem solving

Knowledge & skills performance of the world’s 15-year-olds students based on PISA surveys

2012Rank

(n=65) Country/Economy 2009 2012 2009 2012 2009 2012

1 Shanghai-China 600 613 556 570 575 580

2 Singapore 562 573 526 542 542 551

3 Hong Kong-China 555 561 533 545 549 555

4 Chinese Taipei 543 560 495 523 520 523

5 Korea 546 554 539 536 538 538

7 Japan 529 536 520 538 539 547

17 Viet Nam n.a. 511 n.a. 508 n.a. 528

50 Thailand 419 427 421 441 425 444

52 Malaysia n.a. 421 n.a. 441 n.a. 420

64 Indonesia 371 375 402 396 383 382

65 Peru 365 368 370 384 369 373

Mathematics Reading Science

Source: OECD, PISA (The Programme for International Student Assessment) database.

17

Indonesia: deceleration in mathematicsperformance

Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - © OECD 2013

Coef. S.E.Hong Kong-China 0,3 (0,21)Indonesia -0,7 (0,26)Jordan -0,2 (0,51)Kazakhstan m mLatvia 0,1 (0,20)Liechtenstein 0,3 (0,25)Lithuania 0,7 (0,37)Macao-China 0,4 (0,14)Malaysia m mMontenegro 0,2 (0,31)Peru m mQatar -2,3 (0,21)Romania 0,3 (0,54)Russian Federation 0,1 (0,23)Serbia 0,0 (0,45)Shanghai-China m mSingapore m mChinese Taipei 1,3 (0,52)Thailand 0,2 (0,17)Tunisia 0,3 (0,20)United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m mUruguay -0,6 (0,18)

Rate of acceleration or deceleration in performance (quadratic term) on meanmathematics performance in PISA 2003 through 2012

Coef. S.E.Hong Kong-China 0,1 (0,19)Indonesia -0,4 (0,25)Jordan -0,6 (0,65)Kazakhstan m mLatvia -0,4 (0,18)Liechtenstein -0,4 (0,18)Lithuania 0,6 (0,55)Macao-China 0,8 (0,23)Malaysia m mMontenegro -0,1 (0,51)Peru 0,0 (0,31)Qatar -2,4 (0,47)Romania 1,2 (0,28)Russian Federation 0,8 (0,19)Serbia -2,0 (0,59)Shanghai-China m mSingapore m mChinese Taipei 1,6 (0,60)Thailand 0,7 (0,20)Tunisia -0,1 (0,30)United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m mUruguay 0,2 (0,28)

Indonesia: deceleration in readingperformance

Rate of acceleration or deceleration in performance (quadratic term) on meanreading performance in PISA 2003 through 2012


18

Indonesia: juga kemunduran dalam science

Change between2006 and 2012

(PISA 2012 - PISA 2006)

Change between2009 and 2012

(PISA 2012 - PISA 2009)

Annualised change in science across PISA assessments

Score dif. S.E. Score dif. S.E.Annualchange S.E.

Hong Kong-China 13 (5,0) 6 (4,3) 2,1 (0,85)Indonesia -12 (7,7) -1 (5,7) -1,9 (1,33)Jordan -13 (5,5) -6 (5,1) -2,1 (0,91)Kazakhstan m m 24 (4,8) 8,1 (1,56)Latvia 13 (5,4) 8 (4,6) 2,0 (0,90)Liechtenstein 3 (6,5) 5 (5,3) 0,4 (1,03)Lithuania 8 (5,1) 4 (4,4) 1,3 (0,94)Macao-China 10 (3,8) 10 (2,4) 1,6 (0,64)Malaysia m m -3 (4,5) -1,4 (1,96)Montenegro -2 (3,8) 9 (3,0) -0,3 (0,64)Peru m m 4 (5,4) 1,3 (1,94)Qatar 34 (3,7) 4 (2,3) 5,4 (0,61)Romania 20 (6,4) 11 (5,1) 3,4 (1,08)Russian Federation 7 (5,8) 8 (4,8) 1,0 (1,00)Serbia 9 (5,8) 2 (4,6) 1,5 (1,03)Shanghai-China m m 6 (4,3) 1,8 (1,50)Singapore m m 10 (2,9) 3,3 (0,93)Chinese Taipei -9 (5,5) 3 (4,0) -1,5 (0,92)Thailand 23 (5,1) 19 (4,6) 3,9 (0,82)Tunisia 13 (5,7) -3 (4,8) 2,2 (1,03)United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m m 10 (5,4) 5,1 (2,75)Uruguay -12 (5,2) -11 (4,3) -2,1 (0,91)

Mean science performance in PISA 2006 through 2012


Indonesia: juga mengalami kemunduran dalam science


Mean science performance in PISA 2006 through 2012PISA 2006 PISA 2009 PISA 2012

Meanscore S.E.

Meanscore S.E.

Meanscore S.E.

OECD average 2006 498 (0,5) 501 (0,5) 501 (0,5)OECD average 2009 m m 501 (0,5) 501 (0,5)Hong Kong-China 542 (2,5) 549 (2,8) 555 (2,6)Indonesia 393 (5,7) 383 (3,8) 382 (3,8)Jordan 422 (2,8) 415 (3,5) 409 (3,1)Kazakhstan m m 400 (3,1) 425 (3,0)Latvia 490 (3,0) 494 (3,1) 502 (2,8)Liechtenstein 522 (4,1) 520 (3,4) 525 (3,5)Lithuania 488 (2,8) 491 (2,9) 496 (2,6)Macao-China 511 (1,1) 511 (1,0) 521 (0,8)Malaysia m m 422 (2,7) 420 (3,0)Montenegro 412 (1,1) 401 (2,0) 410 (1,1)Peru m m 369 (3,5) 373 (3,6)Qatar 349 (0,9) 379 (0,9) 384 (0,7)Romania 418 (4,2) 428 (3,4) 439 (3,3)Russian Federation 479 (3,7) 478 (3,3) 486 (2,9)Shanghai-China m m 575 (2,3) 580 (3,0)Singapore m m 542 (1,4) 551 (1,5)Chinese Taipei 532 (3,6) 520 (2,6) 523 (2,3)Thailand 421 (2,1) 425 (3,0) 444 (2,9)Tunisia 386 (3,0) 401 (2,7) 398 (3,5)

United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m m 429 (3,3) 439 (3,8)Uruguay 428 (2,7) 427 (2,6) 416 (2,8)

19

Teachers’ salaries and mathematicsperformance

Source: OECD, PISA Results in Focus: What 15-year-olds know and what they can do with what they know, Paris, 2013: 27.

( ) Rank.Sources: Asian Development Bank, The Social Protection Index: Assessing Results for Asia and the Pacific, 2013.

Social protection index (n=35) and SP expenditure as % of GDP

0.005

0.043

0.044

0.047

0.051

0.085

0.119

0.121

0.137

0.139

0.140

0.155

0.169

0.200

0.416

Papua New Guinea (35)

Bangladesh (28)

Indonesia (27)

Pakistan (24)

India (23)

Philippines (17)

Thailand (16)

Sri Lanka (15)

Vietnam (13)

China (12)

Timor-Leste (11)

Malaysia (8)

Singapore (6)

Korea (4)

Japan (1)

0.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.7

2.5

3.2

3.5

3.6

3.7

4.7

5.4

5.9

7.9

19.2

Papua New Guinea (35)

Indonesia (28)

Pakistan (27)

Bangladesh (25)

India (24)

Philippines (18)

Sri Lanka (16)

Singapore (15)

Thailand (14)

Malaysia (13)

Vietnam (11)

China (9)

Timor-Leste (8)

Korea (5)

Japan (1)

Social Protection Index SP expenditure as % of GDP

20

Masa depan makin suram

Masa depan kemajuan bangsa ditentukan oleh kemajuan teknologi

Bukan sekedar teknologi, melainkan teknologi masa depan

Teknologi masa depan:

• Nanotechnology

• Biotechnology

• ICT

• Green technology

(% of GDP)

Source: World Bank

R&D expenditure

21

R&D as a percentage of gross domestic product

Source: Battelle, 2014 Global R&D Funding Forecast, December 2013: 6.

Source: INSEAD, The Global Innovation Index 2012.

68

.2

64

.8

63

.5

61

.8

61

.2

60

.5

59

.9

58

.7

58

.7

57

.7

56

.4

56

.2

56

.0

53

.9

51

.7

45

.9

45

.4

44

.4

41

.1

39

.5

39

.3

37

.9

37

.7

37

.4

36

.9

36

.6

35

.7

33

.9

29

.0

28

.1

16

.8

Swit

zerl

and

(1)

Swed

en

(2

)

Sin

gap

ore

(3)

Fin

lan

d (

4)

UK

(5

)

Net

he

rlan

ds

(6)

Den

ma

rk (

7)

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

(8)

Irel

and

(9

)

USA

(1

0)

No

rway

(14

)

Ger

man

y (1

5)

Isra

el (

17

)

Ko

rea

(21

)

Jap

an (

25

)

Mal

aysi

a (3

2)

Ch

ina

(34

)

UA

E (3

7)

Bah

rain

(4

1)

Om

an (

47

)

Sau

di A

rab

ia (

48

)

Ru

ssia

n F

ede

rati

on

…

Bru

nei

Dar

uss

alam

…

Sou

th A

fric

a (5

4)

Tha

ilan

d (

57

)

Bra

zil (

58

)

Ind

ia (6

4)

Vie

t N

am (

76

)

Ph

ilip

pin

es (

95

)

Ind

on

esi

a (1

00

)

Sud

an (

14

1)

Global innovation index 2012 (n=141)

22

Patent applications as % of China’s owned(2012 = 535,313), Indonesia (2011) = 541 (0.13)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

India Malaysia Singapore Thailand Indonesia

Patent applications, residents Patent applications are worldwide patent applications filed through the Patent Cooperation Treaty procedure or with a national patent office for exclusive rights for an invention--a product or process that provides a new way of doing something or offers a new technical solution to a problem. A patent provides protection for the invention to the owner of the patent for a limited period, generally 20 years.


H index, 1996-2012

( ) Rank

Source: http://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php?area=0&category=0&region=all&year=all&order=it&min=0&min_type=it

The h-index is an index that attempts to both the productivity and impact of

the published work of a scientist or scholar. The index is based on the set of the scientist's most cited papers and the number of citations that they have received in other publications.Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-index#Definition_and_purpose

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_factor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_publication

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientist

23

Indonesia tidak pernah mengalami default

Bagian IIIPerkuat Jantung dan Peredaran Darah

24

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

8-A

pr

26-A

ug

29-D

ec

2-M

ay

29-A

ug

29-D

ec

1-M

ay

30-A

ug

4-Ja

n

2-M

ay

30-A

ug

14-J

an

14-M

ay

10-S

ep

Jan

-19

May

-20

17-S

ep

22-J

an

24-M

ay

22-S

ep

19-J

an

19-M

ay

22-S

ep

17-J

an

16-M

ay

17-S

ep

18-J

an

20-M

ay

18-S

ep

21-J

an

23-M

ay

Sep

-24

21-J

an

Source: Bank Indonesia

(Rupiah per US$)

24-26 Nov 2008 = 12,400

Highest 2/8/11 = Rp 8.460

The longest deteriorating period of exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah since 9/2011

16 March 2015 = 13,237

•

13 April 2015 = 12,945

Rupiah menguat terhadap mata uang ini ….

25

Forex reserves dipped by US$32 billions in 2 years, but in last 19 months have shown increasing trend

Source: Bank Indonesia.

60.6(Jul'08)

50.2(Nov'08)

124.6(Aug'11)

92.7(Jul'13)

115.5(Feb'15)

111.6(Mar'15)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan

'04

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'5

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'06

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'07

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'08

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'09

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'10

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'11

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'12

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'13

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'14

Apr Ju

l

Oct

Jan

'15

US$

bill

ion

s

Modal asing tetap deras masuk ke Indonesia, bahkan mencetak rekor baru


3.4 2.6

11.1 11.513.7

12.2

15.2

1.8

10.3

13.2

3.8

9.210.9

25.8

5.2

13.0

24.3

15.3

22.9 23.1

41.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

US

$ b

illi

on

s

Direct investment (net) Portfolio investment (net) Total

26

Indonesia sudah 2 tahun berturut-turutmasuk Top 20 host economies untuk FDI

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2014, page xv.

17

17

18

20

24

27

28

30

36

37

38

39

50

62

64

64

77

79

124

188

20. Italy

19. Colombia

18. Indonesia

17. Chile

16. Netherlands

15. Germany

14. India

13. Luxerbourg

12. Ireland

11. United Kingdom

10. Mexico

9. Spain

8. Australia

7. Canada

6.Singapore

5.Brazil

4. Hong Kong, China

3. Russian Federation

2. China

1. United States

Developing economies

Developed economies

2013, Billions of US dollars

Untuk jangka menengah makin atraktif: TNC’s top prospective host economies for 2014-16

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2014, page 28.

Developing economies

Developed economies

27

The Economist: Indonesia is the third investment destination in Asia (2013)

Source: The Economist, Asia Economic Outlook Survey 2013.

37.7

38.6

43.0

53.5

54.1

73.8

32.8

33.9

38.5

27.1

32.0

20.6

26.2

25.2

16.3

18.6

13.9

5.0

3.3

2.4

2.2

0.8

0.7

Vietnam

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

India

China

Increase investment Still in the market, but will not invest more

Have no plan to invest Reduce investment

First time climbing to the top in 2013, Indonesia beats China in Japanese FDI

Rank 1997 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

India1st China China China China China China China China China Indonesia India

2nd USA Thailand Thailand India India India India India India India Indonesia

3rd Indonesia USA India Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Thailand China

4th Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Viet nam Thailand Thailand Thailand Vietnam Thailand China Thailand

5th India India USA USA USA Russia Brazil Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam

6th Vetnam Indonesia Russia Russia Russia USA Indonesia Brazil Brazil Brazil Mexico

7th Philippines Korea Indonesia Korea Brazil Brazil Russia Russia Mexico Mexico Brazil

8th Malaysia Taiwan Korea Indonesia Korea Indonesia USA USA Russia Myanmar USA

9th Brazil Malaysia Taiwan Brazil Indonesia Korea Korea Malaysia Myanmar Russia Russia

10th Taiwan Russia Malaysia Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Malaysia Taiwan USA USA Myanmar

Promising countries for overseas business operation by Japanese Manufacturing Companies over the medium term (next 3 years or so)

Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), “Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese ManufacturingCompanies,” various issues.

28

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,40022

-Oct

15-F

eb

3-Ju

n

16-S

ep

5-Ja

n

26-A

pr

9-A

ug

30-N

ov

16-M

ar

4-Ju

l

19-O

ct

13-F

eb

2-Ju

n

15-S

ep

Jan-

12

Apr

-30

Aug

-14

3-D

ec

25-M

ar

9-Ju

l

28-O

ct

16-F

eb

1-Ju

n

22-S

ep

4-Ja

n

19-A

pr

2-A

ug

22-N

ov

13-M

ar

27-J

un

17-O

ct

6-F

eb

28-M

ay

Sep

-17

(Jakarta composite index)

On December 30, 2014 (5,226.947):year to date 22.29%year on year 22.29%

New record = 5,246.483 (September 8, 2014)Previous highest = 5,214.976 (May 20, 2013)

IHSG 2014 ditutup dgn pertumbuhan tertinggi keempat di Asia, nyaris dengan rekor baru

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

22-O

ct

17-F

eb

9-Ju

n

26-S

ep

18-J

an

10-M

ay

30-A

ug

20-D

ec

11-A

pr

30-J

ul

16-N

ov

17-M

ar

4-Ju

l

29-O

ct

Feb

-20

Jun-

12

Oct

-06

27-J

an

18-M

ay

2-S

ep

28-D

ec

15-A

pr

4-A

ug

25-N

ov

13-M

ar

2-Ju

l

19-O

ct

13-F

eb

3-Ju

n

24-S

ep

17-J

an

9-M

ay

Sep

-04

18-D

ec

10-A

pr

(Jakarta composite index)

On April 13, 2015 (5,447.409):year to date 4.22%year on year 13.10%

New record = 5,514.787 (March 6, 2015)Previous highest = 5,477.831 (March 2, 2015)

IHSG 2014 ditutup dgn pertumbuhan tertinggi ke-4 di Asia, sudah cetak rekor baru 12X tahun ini

29

Global stock markets: Indonesia mencuat lagi

Sources: The Economist.

-15.3-7.0

-6.3-5.0

-4.2-3.4

-2.6-2.5

-0.8-0.6

0.00.2

0.94.4

5.19.1

10.214.314.3

14.316.5

18.522.8

Russia (RTS, $ terms)Japan (Nikkei 225)Hungary (BUX)China (SSEA)Mexico (IPC)Hong Kong (Hang Seng)Argentina (MERV)Chile (IGPA)South Korea (KOSPI)MalaysiaUnited States (DJIA)Emerging Markets (MSCI)SingaporeBrazil (BVSP)Turkey (BIST)Thailand (SET)India (BSE)Italy (FTSE/MIB)Denmark (OMXCB)Greece (Athex Comp)Egypt (Case 30)Pakistan (KSE)Indonesia (IDX)

As of April 2nd 2014 (year to date), in $ terms

Global stock markets: Indonesia emerging again


-44.9-37.7

-25.8-13.8

-11.3-10.8-10.2

-9.9-9.2

-7.9-7.8

-5.1-4.4

-2.01.51.9

6.58.8

15.015.1

18.519.4

25.628.3

31.445.9

Russia (RTS, $ terms)Greece (Athex Comp)Hungary (BUX)Brazil (BVSP)Malaysia (KLSE)Italy (FTSE/MIB)Chile (IGPA)Mexico (IPC)Euro area (FTSE Euro 100)South Korea (KOSPI)Britain (FTSE 100)Japan (Nikkei 225)Emerging markets (MSCI)South Africa (JSE AS)Singapore (STI)Hong Kong (Hang Seng)Denmark (OMXCB)United States (DJIA)Thailand (SET)Turkey (BIST)Indonesia (IDX)Argentina (MERV)India (BSE)Egypt (Case 30)Pakistan (KSE)China (SSEA)

As of December 29th 2014 (year to date), in $ terms

30

Global stock markets: Indonesia emerging again


25.925.0

23.615.1

13.311.2

10.69.5

8.37.2

6.65.95.8

4.33.63.5

3.01.21.1

0.50.40.3

-7.7-12.9

-17.1

Argentina (MERV)Russia (RTS, $ terms)China (SSEA)Denmark (OMXCB)Japan (Nikkei 225)Hong Kong (Hang Seng)Italy (FTSE/MIB)Germany (DAX)South Korea (KOSPI)France (CAC 40)Euro area (FTSEEuro 100)Switzerland (SMI)India (BSE)Thailand (SET)South Africa (JSE AS)Australia (All Ord.)Mexico (IPC)Malaysia (KLSE)Britain (FTSE 100)Singapore (STI)United States (DJIA)Indonesia (JSX)Brazil (BVSP)Turkey (BIST)Greece (Athex Comp)

As of April 8th 2015 (% change on December 31st 2014, in $ terms)

Utang pemerintah terkendali, nisbah utang turunterus, naik sedikit tahun 2013

* June 30.


68 6473 77

71 7182 85

83

104

118

131141 136

151

6159

6469 69

6362 62 67

65

6969

6458

58

97.9

24.0

26.2 26.5

0

50

100

150

200

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Securities (RHS) Loan (RHS) Debt to GDP Ratio (LHS)% of GDP US$ billion

31

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators, downloaded on June 3, 2014.

Debt to GDP ratio, 2012

Central government debt, total (% of

GDP). Debt is the entire stock of direct

government fixed-term contractual

obligations to others outstanding on a

particular date. It includes domestic and

foreign liabilities such as currency and

money deposits, securities other than

shares, and loans. It is the gross amount

of government liabilities reduced by the

amount of equity and financial

derivatives held by the government.

Because debt is a stock rather than a

flow, it is measured as of a given date,

usually the last day of the fiscal year.

Holders of tradable domestic government securities (percent)

Asing percaya prospek Indonesia cerah, lebih banyak pegang SUN jangka panjang

19

31 31 33 33 36

38

36 33 30 3433

4434 37 37 34 31

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Foreign Domestic Non-Banks Domestic Banks

49 4638

45 44 41

2221

25

28 32 33

2523

25

19 18 18

410 12 8 5 7

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

>10 years >5-10 years >1-5 years 0-1 year

Foreign ownership of domestic government securities by maturity (percent)

* June 30. Source: Bank Indonesia and Ministry of Finance.

32

Global bond issuance

On January 8th, 2014 (January 7th, New York Time), The Government of the Republic of Indonesia issued USD denominated bonds:• Series: RI0124 (Tenor: 10 years; Pricing Date: 7 Januari 2014; Nominal

Received: US$2.00 Billion; Coupon Rate: 5.875%; Yield: 5.950%; Price: 99.441%; Maturity date: 15 Januari 2024; Settlement date/issuance: 15 Januari 2014)

• Series: RI0144 (Tenor: 30 years; Pricing Date: 7 Januari 2014; Nominal Received: US$2.00 Billion; Coupon Rate: 6.750%; Yield: 6.850%; Price: 98.734%; Maturity date: 15 Januari 2044; Settlement date/issuance: 15 Januari 2014)

The total order book for RI0124 and RI0144 is amounted to US$17,5 billion. This transaction resulted in oversubscription as much as 4,4 times.


Indonesia tidak pernah mengalami default

33

Penetrasi kredit di Indonesia masih sangat rendah


Financial inclusion index

* Developing only.

Source: World Bank, Global Findex Database (http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Views/reports/tableview.aspx)

Financial Inclusion Index: The percentage of respondents who report having an account (by themselves or together with someone else). For 2011, this can be an account at a bank or another type of financial institution, and for 2014 this can be a mobile account as well (see year-specific definitions for details) (% age 15+). [ts: data are available for multiple waves].

34

* 2003Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Stock market capitalization

Source: Asian Development Bank, Asian Bond Monitor, March 2015.

Size of local currency bonds market: Indonesia is still lagging behind in the long-term financing

203

50 61 50 5739 35 33 31 22 13

17

72 4332 19

3023 18 6

0 2

0

50

100

150

200

250 Government bonds Corporate bonds

(% of GDP, December 2014)

35

Source: Asian Development Bank.

Size of total local currency bonds market: Indonesia experienced a setback

(% of GDP)

102

74 73

48

2735

17

31

0

37

220

122

104

8276

69

5137

2215

0

50

100

150

200

250 December 2000 December 2014

Bagian IVKetimpangan

36

Buku yang menyita banyak perhatian

Kuznets curve

The Kuznets ratio is a

measurement of the ratio of

income going to the highest-

earning households (usually

defined by the upper 20%) and

the income going to the lowest-

earning households,[6] which is

commonly measured by either

the lowest 20% or lowest 40% of

income. Comparing 20% to 20%,

perfect equality is expressed as

1; 20% to 40% changes this

value to 0.5.

http://www.nybooks.com/media/photo/2014/04/09/krugman_1-050814.jpg

http://www.nybooks.com/media/photo/2014/04/09/krugman_1-050814.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuznets_curvecite_note-Kuznets.2C_Simon_1955-6

37

The fall and rise of extreme inequality over the course of the past century

Source: Piketty, 2014

Piketty’s estimates of global r and g over the long haul

http://www.nybooks.com/media/graphics/chart/image/krugman_2-050814.png




38

Perkembangan perolehan top 10 percent berbentuk huruf U (U shape)Data terbaru tahun 2012, berdasarkan perhitungan Emmanuel Saez (September 2013), perolehan kelompok pendapatan 10 persen tertinggi telah melampaui 50 persen (50.4%).

Sumber: Diadaptasi dari Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-first Century, oleh John Cassidy (2014) http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2014/03/piketty-looks-at-inequality-in-six-charts.html

In August 15, 1971, Nixon announces the end of goldto dollar convertibility

Selisih antara total income dan wage income berupa pendapatan dari modal

Data terbaru tahun 2012, berdasarkan perhitungan Emmanuel Saez (September 2013), perolehan kelompok pendapatan 1 persen tertinggi telah mencapai 23,5 persen.


39

Ketimpangan di Amerika Serikat memang tak ada duanya di dunia


Indonesia masuk dalam kajian Piketty. Ternyata lebih buruk dari China dan India


40

Tahapan kapitalisme

Kapitalisme pertanian tatkala surplus pertanian kian membesar sehingga barter tak lagi mampu menyerap exchange yang semakin meluas transaction through the market.

Kapitalisme perdagangan (merchantilism) di masa kolonisasi.

Kapitalisme indutri I: pemerasan buruh oleh industriawan pasca revolusi industri

Kapitalisme industri II: pemerasan buruh lintas-Negara oleh TNCs

Financially-driven capitalism: globalisasi segalanya dengan mobilitas modal amat deras

We are the 99 percent vs the Tea Party

Source: http://sandiegofreepress.org/2014/05/capitalism-a-comparison-of-marx-and-piketty/we-are-the-99-percent-2/#.U3jv92r-Kpo

“We are the 99 percent” movement has changed the political landscape: “A huge

march in support of the “Occupy Wall Street/We are the 99 percent” movement, called by unions and MoveOn, filled Manhattan streets today (October 5, 2011). According to the Guardian: “Thousands of protesters – with conservative estimates putting the number at around 15,000 – marched through Lower Manhattan, ….”

photo by Twitpic.com

.Source: http://coloneldespard.wordpress.com/2011/10/05/%E2%80%9Cwe-are-the-99-percent%E2%80%9D-movement-has-changed-the-political-landscape

http://sandiegofreepress.org/2014/05/capitalism-a-comparison-of-marx-and-piketty/we-are-the-99-percent-2/.U3jv92r-Kpo

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/oct/05/occupy-wall-street-protests-live

41

Russell Brand about inequality

http://www.upworthy.com/russell-brands-brilliant-quote-about-inequality-in-one-easily-shareable-image

We used to grow together, now we’re growing apart

Real Family Income Growth Adjusted for Inflation

Poorest

20%

Richest

20%

Top

5%

Poorest

20%

Richest

20%

Top

5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Based on mean family income.

42

US: Real income growth by groups, 1993-2012

Source: Emmanuel Saez, “Striking it Richer: The Evaluation of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2012 preliminary

estimates),” UC Berkeley, September 3, 2013.

America’s great divide

Who own what in the USA

Assets

Bottom 90% Top 10% Top 1%

Stocks (%) 15 84 42

Bonds (%) 9 90 55

Business

Assets (%)

7 92 71

43

Source: http://swampland.time.com/2013/02/04/the-most-important-chart-in-american-politics/#ixzz2K8Y0orA0

US economy: “the North Star”

The economy hummed along, but many Americans, the ones politicians typically refer to as the middle class, stopped feeling the benefits.

Ketimpangan “pendapatan” memburuk

0.35 0.35

0.38

0.34

0.33

0.32 0.32

0.34

0.355

0.308

0.30

0.329

0.32

0.32

0.363

0.35

0.363

0.35

0.37

0.38

0.41

0.41

0.41

0.41

0.28

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

0.42

196

4

196

9

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

4

198

7

199

0

199

3

199

6

199

9

200

0

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

gini index

Sources: (1) BPS for 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005,2007-2013 see http://www.bps.go.id/tab_sub/view.php?kat=1&tabel=1&daftar=1&id_subyek=23&notab=6; for 2004 and 2006 see

BPS, Key Indicators of Indonesia, Special Edition 2007. (2) Satish Chandra Mishra, “ Economic Inequality in Indonesia: Trends, Causes and Policy Response, Strategic Asia,

March 2009: 17 for 1976, 1984, 1987, 1990, and 1993.


http://swampland.time.com/2013/02/04/the-most-important-chart-in-american-politics/

http://www.bps.go.id/tab_sub/view.php?kat=1&tabel=1&daftar=1&id_subyek=23&notab=6

44

Income distribution (%)

Source: BPS, and Satish Chandra Mishra, “Economic Inequality in Indonesia: Trends, Causes, and Policy Response,” Strategic Asia, 2009: 14.

4042

49

40

34

1922 21

17

10

20

30

40

50

19

63

19

64

19

67

19

70

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

99

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20% top 40% Middle 40% Bottom

Penguasaan top-20 naik terus

Source: BPS, and Satish Chandra Mishra, “Economic Inequality in Indonesia: Trends, Causes, and Policy Response,” Strategic Asia, 2009: 14.

35

40

45

50

19

63

19

64

19

67

19

70

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

99

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13


Perc

ent

45

Poorer households had lower than average growth in their real consumption over 2002-12

Source: Badan Pusat Statistik, Susenas 2008-2012.

4.87

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99

An

nu

al

gro

wth

ra

te %

Percentiles

2008-2012 growth Growth in mean

= Average growth for all households

Koefisien Gini pemilikan tanah lebih buruk lagi

46

Poverty, unemployment, and growth

19,118,4 18,2

17,416,7

16,0

17,816,6

15,414,2

13,312,4

11,8 11,4 11,3

6,1

8,19,1

11,5

9,911,2

10,39,3

8,5 8,17,4

6,8 6,3 6,0 5,8

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

0

5

10

15

20

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Poverty (LHS) Unemployment (LHS) GDP growth (RHS)

Source: BPS.

Perc

ent

Perc

ent

Jumlah penduduk miskin Sep. 2013 = 28,55 juta

60.0

11.3

24.2

17.8

11.4 11.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

70

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

*

20

12

*

20

13

*

20

14

**

* March and September average

** MarchSource: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Perc

ent

of

popula

tion


47

Hampir dua pertiga penduduk usia 15 tahun ke atas yang bekerja berpendidikan SMP ke bawah

* March and September average

** MarchSource: BPS-Statistics Indonesia..

Pendidikan tertinggi yang ditamatkan 2012 2013 2014

2014 kumulatif

SD ke bawah 49.8 48.5 46.8 46.8

Sekolah Menengah Pertama 17.7 17.5 17.8 64.6

Sekolah Menengah Atas 15.1 15.4 16.0 80.6

Sekolah Menengah Kejuruan 8.3 8.9 9.2 89.9

Diploma I/II/III 2.7 2.8 2.6 92.5

Universitas 6.4 6.9 7.5 100.0

Working population by sector

Sector 2012 2013 2014

Agriculture 36.8 35.3 34.6

Manufacturing industry 12.5 12.9 13.0

Construction 5.4 6.0 6.1

Trade 21.3 21.8 21.8

Transportation, storage, and communication 4.6 4.5 4.5

Finance 2.4 2.6 2.7

Community, social, and personal services 15.4 15.3 15.6

Others* 1.7 1.6 1.6

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.

48

Contribution to GDP and labor absorption and GDP growth by sector, 2013*

* Simple average of February and August for labor absorption.


SectorShare of

GDPShare of

laborGDP

growth

Agriculture 14.43 34.70 3.54

Mining and quarrying 11.24 1.32 1.34


Electricity, gas, and water supply 0.77 0.22 5.58


Trade, hotel, and restaurant 14.33 21.59 5.93

Transport and communication 7.01 4.57 10.19

Financial, ownership and business services 7.52 2.64 7.56

Services 11.02 15.91 5.46

Total 100.00 100.00 5.78

Distribution of workers by sector (%)

* Simple average of February and August ** February.


Sector 2004 2009* 2014**




Electricity, gas, and water supply 0.2 0.2 0.3


Trade, hotel, and restaurant 20.2 20.7 21.8

Transport and communication 5.7 5.7 4.5

Financial, ownership and business services 1.2 1.4 2.7

Social services 11.1 13.2 15.6Total(million)Memo:Informal workersFormal workers

100.097.0

70.629.4

100.0106.6

69.930.1

100.0118.2

59.840.2

49

Source: World Bank, Indonesia: Avoiding The Trap, Development Policy Review 2014, p. 6.

Labor productivity differences across sectors remain significant

Sector 2000-03 2005-08 2009-12


Low-end services 2.4 2.5 2.2

Manufacturing industries 5.7 5.8 5.0

Transport & communication 2.8 3.5 5.5

Financial services 21.5 20.5 14.6


(Sector labor productivity (real terms) compared with labor productivity in agriculture)

Profile of workforce by job status

Source: World Bank, presented by Shubham Chaudhuri at Kompas Economic Panel Discussion, June 21, 2012.

50

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: BPS.

Non-tradable

GDP

Tradable

Low quality of growth, 2000-2013

Percent

* First quarterSource: BPS.

Peranan industri manufaktur terus merosot

29.0

27.8

23.7

23.6

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Percent of GDP

51

Source: BPS.

Peranan wilayah dalam pembentukan PDB

60.6 59.9 58.9

22.4 22.7 23.8

9.5 9.2 9.3

4.2 4.5 4.73.3 3.8 3.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

2004 2009 2012

Jawa+Bali Sumatera Kalimantan Sulawesi Others

Perc

ent

Belakangan, Jawa-Sumatera kian mendominasidalam PDB Nasional

57.6 57.7 58.0 58.5

23.6 23.7 23.8 23.9

18.9 18.6 18.2 17.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

2011 2012 2013 2014*

Jawa Sumatera Others

* First quarterSource: BPS.

Komposisi pembentukan PDB nasional berdasarkan pulau (persen)

52

Manufaktur terkonsentrasi di Jawa+Bali

Source: BPS.

Distribusi jumlah rekening simpananberdasarkan nilai nominal

Source: LPS – Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation

Nominal Simpanan % Rekening

≤ 100 juta 97.78

100 Juta - ≤ 200 juta 1.01

200 juta - ≤ 500 juta 0.67

500 juta - ≤ 1 miliar 0.28

1 miliar - ≤ 2 miliar 0.14

2 miliar - ≤ 5 miliar 0.08

> 5 miliar 0.04

(Rupiah, May 2014)

53

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