ISU Climate Science InitiativeISU Climate Science Initiative

Meeting objectives:

* To assess the level of faculty interest in research relating to climate science at ISU

* To identify opportunities to build partnerships at ISU between climate science and programs in bioeconomy, plant sciences, cyberinfrastructure, and climate-sensitive areas of research in agriculture, water resources, natural systems, and engineering for establishing ISU as a regional/national leader in climate science and impacts of climate change.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC)(IPCC)

Established in 1988 byEstablished in 1988 by

• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)Supports the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)Supports the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

First Assessment Report - 1990First Assessment Report - 1990Second Assessment Report - 1995Second Assessment Report - 1995Third Assessment Report (TAR) - 2001Third Assessment Report (TAR) - 2001Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 2007Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 2007Plus: special reports, technical papers, methodology reports and Plus: special reports, technical papers, methodology reports and supporting material. supporting material.

(source: www.ipcc.ch)(source: www.ipcc.ch)

Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

Continental warming

likely shows a significant anthropogenic contribution over the past 50 years

U.S. Climate Change Science Program

MissionMission: : Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and communication.

Primary Products: 21 Synthesis & Assessment Reports

Integrates climate research of 13 federal agenciesIntegrates climate research of 13 federal agencies

• Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment and environment

• Improve quantification of the forces bringing about climate Improve quantification of the forces bringing about climate changeschanges

• Reduce uncertainty in projections of future climate changeReduce uncertainty in projections of future climate change

• Understand the sensitivity and adaptability to climate Understand the sensitivity and adaptability to climate changechange

• Explore the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks Explore the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunitiesand opportunities

(source: (source: www.climatescience.gov/))

(IPCC TAR, Ch. 1)

What is a climate model?What is a climate model?

Options:Options:

• Global modelGlobal model

resolve resolve continental scalescontinental scales

simulate 10s-simulate 10s-100s yr100s yr

• Regional modelRegional model

resolve broad resolve broad human scales human scales (river basins, (river basins, agricultural agricultural zones, etc.)zones, etc.)

simulate 10s-simulate 10s-100s yr100s yr

How can a numerical model represent all of this?How can a numerical model represent all of this?

Example Regional Model DomainExample Regional Model Domain

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

• An international project to evaluate regional climate change for North America.

• Uses nested regional climate models: fine-scale models that use results of coarse global models as input.– How does uncertainty propagate from global

models through regional models?

• Develop multiple realizations of regional climate change for use in climate change impact assessment (patterned on global model data for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report).

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Participants

• Raymond Arritt, David Flory, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University, USA

• Richard Jones, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre, UK• Daniel Caya, Sébastien Biner, OURANOS, Canada• David Bader, Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA• Filippo Giorgi, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy• Isaac Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA• René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada• Ruby Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA• Linda Mearns, Don Middleton, Doug Nychka National Center for

Atmospheric Research, USA• Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA• Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA• Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA

Current climate or Scenario

1971-2000 current 2041-2070 future

NARCCAP PLAN

GFDL CCSM HADCM3 CGCM3

Provide boundary conditions

MM5Iowa State

RegCM3UC Santa Cruz

ICTP

MRCCQuebec,Ouranos

HADRM3Hadley Centre

RSMScripps

WRFNCAR/PNNL

global climate models

regional climate models

Seasonal Forecasting (MRED project)

• Weather forecasting is short-term (few days to 2 weeks)

• Climate projection is for decades

• Seasonal forecasting has had less attention, despite practical needs:– agriculture, construction and repair, transportation,

etc.

Seasonal Forecasting (MRED project)

• MRED project is patterned after NARCCAP:– uses output from the National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model as input to fine-scale regional models

– many of the same participants as NARCCAP

• ISU has done some exploratory work using a similar approach.

• Project has been proposed to NOAA.

Examples of Studying Impacts of Climate Change

Global climate models have demonstrated skill in simulation of future climates (1980s GCMs projected accelerated warming in the Arctic that now is being observed)

Regional model output is being used for studying• Impact on land-use and climate change on landscape change

(C. Kling, CARD)• Impact of climate change on streamflow in UMRB (C. Kling, P.

Gassman, M. Jha, CARD)• Impact of climate change on tile drainage flow (A. Kalieta, M. Helmers, A&BE)• Changes in wind speed (wind power) under climate change (S.

Pryor, Indiana U)• Pavement performance under climate change (C. Williams, CCEE)

http://www.rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

Examples of Studying Impacts of Climate Change

Regional model output is being used for studying• Seasonal climate forecasts (MRED: J Roads, R. Leung, C.

Anderson, H. Juang)• Impact of climate change on crop yields (Z. Pan, SLU)• Impact of climate change on plant disease (X. B. Yang, Plant

Pathology, and Z. Pan)• Others?

Discussions on climate change impacts• Montane plant and butterfly changes (D. Debinski, EEOB)• Soil erosion (R. Cruse, Agron)• Buffer strips, cloud forests (H. Asbjornsen, NREM)• Turtle populations (F. Janzen, EEOB)• Carbon sequestration (P. Schnable, Agron)• Bioeconomy (R. Brown, S. Fales, J. Miranowski)

http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

MiCCA’s mission is to translate and enhance the latest NOAA climate forecast products to maximize economic gains for agricultural producers and their agribusiness service providers in the U.S. Midwest through use of advanced regional models, interactive web-based decision-making tools, and high-volume customized delivery and feedback through the existing integrated regional, state, and county level extension service network throughout the 9-state region (MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, MI, IN, OH, KY).

http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

Iowa Environmental Mesonet• Goal: Build a centralized clearing house for environmental data in Iowa

– "Network of networks": Collect, process and archive data from pre-existing networks

– Build two-way partnerships with data providers and data users; foster interdisciplinary collaboration and research

• Daily data processing:– IEM ingests over 300,000 obs/day (~111 million in 1996)– 20 GB of compressed Level2 NEXRAD data is processed, 10,000+

Level3 NEXRAD radar attribute files are ingested into the spatial database

– Thousands of NWS issued text products are processed to extract data and information.

– 99% of processing done in real-time.

Observation Archive (as of 10/2006)

Begins Current Stations

Obs Stored

ASOS 1945 17 1,323,570

IA AWOS 1995 37 191,017,657

IA RWIS 1994 53 15,015,105

SchoolNet 2002 131 166,626,011

NWS COOP 1893 185 3,107,343

Ag Climate 1998 14 1,003,436

Other Lots ~20,000,000

Total ~400 million

Virtual Environmental Observatories

Assemble comprehensive historical databases on • environment measurements (meteorological, soil moisture, soil carbon, crop status, ground water, streamflow, water quality, air quality, etc.)• landscape information (elevations, soil types, land-use, land cover, animal/bird populations, drainage, tillage, cropping patterns, chemical application, conservation practices, ownership, etc.)• human demographics (population, built environment, pollutant sources, etc.)

Assemble dynamical models for imposing constraints and consistencies•Physical laws, balances, plausibility

Forecast future conditions with applications to* extreme weather events,flood/drought impacts forecasting, emergency management, advanced preparedness, toxic releases, crop development, chemical/seed purchase, chemical application, planting/marketing planning, recreational opportunities, etc.

http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

Total cost of large-scale carbon capture and storage: $76 - $450/tC

Example: Added cost to drive your car.$(0.076-0.450)/kg C x (12 kg C/44 kg CO2) x 10.4 kg CO2/gal x (1 gal/25 mi) x 12,000 mi/yr

= $103 - $613/yr ($0.22 - $1.28/gal)

What’s it going to cost us?

Total cost of large-scale carbon capture and storage: $76 - $450/tC

An Investment Opportunity?

Current price of sequestered carbon on Chicago Climate Exchange: ~$10/tC

• Sequester carbon in soil

• Increase organic matter

• Increase farm income

Center for Carbon-Capturing Crops Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations/global climate changeProduce crops with cell walls that are “resistant” to microbial degradation

Genetic Approaches

Cell wall composition

varies among

genotypes*

Use genetic variation to identify genes that regulate resistance of roots to microbial degradation

(“guilt by association”)*Hazen et al., 2003 Plant Physiol.

Sampling Nested Association Mapping Lines *

*6,000 recombinant inbred lines generated to sample the genetic diversity of maize

Root Samples from the NAM Lines

N=2 x 6,000 Samples

Sarah Hargreaves

Genetic Variation in Distribution of Vascular Bundles and

Lignification among 25 NAM Parents

NC358

CML277

Next Steps - Near Term

• Website

• Directory of ISU climate related research and interests (short CV, pubs, grants, ideas)

• Seminar series

• Office of climate-change and climate-impacts research

• One full-time position

• Educational initiatives and support

• Proposal collaboration

• Long-term vision statement

Next Steps - Long-Term

• Center or institute

• Faculty positions

• Graduate assistantships

• Named chair