ispc - inai - ii conferencia inai - mason-d croz… · title: ispc author: wiebe, keith (ifpri)...
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IMPACT v3.2 ProjectionsA selection of scenario results based on the IPCC’s 5th Assessment report
Daniel Mason-D’Croz
IFPRI
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The IMPACT system of models
• Complete recoding of IMPACT
• Disaggregation geographically and by commodity
• Improved water & crop models
• New data management system
• Modular framework
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Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:biophysical and economic effects
General circulation models (GCMs)
Global gridded crop models
(GGCMs)
Global economic modelsΔ Temp
Δ Precip…
Δ Yield(biophys)
Δ AreaΔ YieldΔ Cons.Δ Trade
Climate Biophysical Economic
Source: HadGem RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI DSSAT Maize simulation
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Socioeconomic and climate drivers
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs)
Representative
Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.
CO2 eq. (ppm)Radiative forcing(W/m2)
Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)
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IMPACT model results
• Yields – sources of growth, climate effects by commodity and region
• Prices – comparing socioeconomic and climate effects
• Total demand – comparing commodities
• Per-capita food demand – by commodity and region
• Composition of demand – by commodity and region
• Net trade – by commodity and region
• Food security – by region
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Changing diets, by region (SSP2, kcal/person/day)
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WLD EAP EUR FSU LAC MEN NAM SAS SSA
Total Animal Products Cereals Fruits & Vegetables Oils & Sugar
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Decomposition of global supply growth of animal products (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
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Decomposition of changing demand for cereals and oilmeals (SSP2, NoCC)
Cereals Oilmeals
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
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Decomposition of global supply growth in cereal and oilseeds (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
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Climate impacts on yield effect, by region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Roots & tubers
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
Cereals Fruits & Vegetables
Oilseeds Pulses Sugar
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Comparing maize and wheat climate yield impacts, by region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
CerealsMaize
Wheat
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Price effects of socioeconomic and climate drivers
Cereals Fruits & vegetables Meat
RC
PsSS
Ps
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
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Net trade in Cereals (mmt, SSP2)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and CaribbeanMEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
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Net trade in select cereals(mmt, SSP2)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and CaribbeanMEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Rice Wheat Maize
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Comparing trade in vegetable oils and oil meals (mmt, NoCC)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and CaribbeanMEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
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Prevalence of hunger in 2050, by region
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union;MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
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Total number of climate-related deaths in 2050 by risk factor and region (SSP2 RCP 8.5)
Source: Springmann et al (2015)
HIC = High Income Country; AFR = Africa; AMR = Americas; EMR = Eastern Mediterranean;EUR = Europe; SEA = South-East Asia; WPR = Western Pacific
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Thank you
For more information:
http://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model
http://globalfutures.cigar.org
http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/129825