isabel vogel - introduction to theory of change for agricultural development

Introduction to Theory of Change for agricultural

developmentIsabelVogel,

SLUTuesday26April2016

AcknowledgementsThispresenta>onisadaptedfrommaterialproducedincollabora>onbyIsabelVogel,IreneGuijt(LearningbyDesign),MarjanVanEs(Hivo)andMaureenO’Flynn.PleasecontactIsabelVogelinfo@isabelvogel.co.ukifyouwishtoreproduceanyofit.

WELCOME

Aims and programme•  Introduce‘ToCthinking’•  Step-wiseapproachtoToC•  Demonstra>onofdifferent‘thinkingtools’•  Workwithaprac>calexample

•  BasicunderstandingofToCapproach•  Interestandenthusiasm!

Where are you on Theory of Change?

Drawingonfiveyearsofcollabora>veprac>cewithIreneGuijt,MarjanVanEs,MaureenO’Flynn,InigoRetolazaandothers

Introductions•  Onyourtable,introduceyourselftothepeoplearoundyou

•  Writeyourfirstnameonas>ckylabelandchooseanadjec>vethatdescribeshowyoufeelorwhatyouare,e.g.InspiringIsabel

•  Standinacircle

Expectations?Discuss:•  Whyareyouheretoday?•  Whatareyourtop3priori>esfortheworkshop

•  Share

IsabelVogelandMaureenO'Flynn

WHAT IS TOC?

Abriefoverview

System Change

the

farmer

green – local

pink - national

blue – international

Nature of Systemic Change•  long>mehorizon

•  unpredictable,emergent,non-linear,feedbackloops,ongoing,dynamic

•  mul>pleactorsandperspec>ves

•  contested:differentinterests,powerrela>ons

•  manystrategicop>ons

Why ToC in development?•  Developmentprogrammesobenhavelimitedimpact

•  Nothingworksthesameineverycontext•  Needtounderstandthespecificdynamicsinthecontext,thechangewedesire,anddesignaccordingly

•  Needtolearnasweimplement,because…

See Only Part of the System

13

What are Theories of Change?Theoriesofchangearethepercep%ons,ideasandhypothesespeopleandorganisa>onshaveabouthowchangehappens.These‘theories’canbeconsciousorunconsciousandarebasedonpersonalbeliefsandvalues,assump>onsandanecessarilylimited,personalpercep>onofreality.Weneedtobringthesetothesurfaceandcri>callyexaminethemtofocusonchange(notac%ons).

14

Essence of ToC

Over and over again…

ToC three aspects•  Wayofthinking(overallapproach)•  Process(doingagroup-basedToCanalysis)•  Asetofproducts(narra>ves,changepathwaydiagrams)

What will really change for real people?

ToC as an approach•  Theory-basedevalua>on•  Intendedtomakeexplicithowandwhychangehappens,forwhom,inwhatcontext

InterventionA

OutcomeB????

THEORY PhilosophyFormaltheory(academic)Programmetheory(ToC)Personalbeliefs,values,perspec;vesandassump;ons

Specificcontexts

Theory of Change as a processSocial change practice – Paolo Freire, participatory approaches An ongoing process of critical reflection to explore change and how it happens – and what that means for the role our organisation can play in a specific change process

ToC as a living product

•  TheoriesofChangecomeinallshapes,no‘right’version

•  Narra>vesandchangepathwaydiagrams

•  Currentassump>ons

•  Ownershipandbuyinfromallkeystakeholdersisessen;al

Mustbereviewedandrevisedbasedoncri;calreflec;on,learningandadapta>onofourprogramme

Step1.Clarifypurposeforusing

ToC

Step2.Describedesiredchange

Step3.Researchand

describecurrentsitua;on

Step4.Iden;fywho/what/whereneedstochangetorealisedesiredchange

Step5.Priori;sefocusandmap

changepathways

Step6.Developstrategiesandinterven;ons

Step7.DefineMELpriori;esandprocess

Step8.UseToCforcri;calreflec;ontoimplementandadapt

Theory of

Change

AdaptedfromVanesetal2015)

Assumptions

InterventionA

OutcomeB????

THEORY PhilosophyFormaltheory(academic)Programmetheory(ToC)Personalbeliefs,values,perspec;vesandassump;ons

All swans are white

… until you see a black one

An assumption is …aconvic>onaboutwhatistrueoracceptedastrue

– shapedbyvalues,experiences,knowledge,beliefs– obenimplicit–  trueforsomepeopleforaperiodof>meinacertainplace

– aboutdifferentthings–context,actors,factors;relatedtopathwaysforchange;opera>onalassump>ons

Assumptions matter

1.  Surfacevalues,buildteams2.  Improvingdesignandinnova>on3.  Coordinatedandfocusedac>on4.  Adap>vemanagementandrisk

management5.  Focusforevalua>onandlearning6.  Increasedtrustandcredibility

Adaptedfrom“WorkingwithAssump>ons”,IreneGuijt2013

WhatmakesagoodqualityToCapproach?

Programmedesign

Strategyrevision

Qualitycheck

Evalua>on/strategiclearning

design

Situa>on-specificprocessofsteps,usingdiverse‘toolsforthought’withrelevantpeople

ComprehensiveanalysisPower,genderlensesAssump>onscentral

Par>cipa>onindevelopmentUseddynamically

Principles

Purposes

Process

Narra>veVisualMEL

frameworks

PlantoimproveToC

Products

ToC and research for development•  Complexrole–research,capacitydevelopmentandimplementa>on?

•  Complexchangeprocess-mul>pleactors,significant>me-lagsbetweenresearchandchange

•  Scopeandscaleofresearch–fromsinglestudiestomul>-component,mul>-siteandmul>-sectorprogrammes

•  Whatisyourcontribu>on:researchoutcomeordevelopmentoutcome?

Source,June2014:hpp://www.idrc.ca/EN/Documents/Research-Quality-Plus-Assessment-Instrument.pdf

IDRC’s approach: Research Quality +

Researchoutcomes

Developmentoutcomes

Implementa>on

Research

Benefits of ToC thinking

•  Buildscommonunderstandingofhowandwhyyoudowhatyoudo

•  Strengthenstheclarity,direc;on,effec;venessandfocusofprogrammes

•  Providesaframeworkforreview,learningandre-design.•  Improvespartnership•  Supportsorganisa;onaldevelopment•  Helpspeoplecommunicatewhattheydosoitcanbemoreeasily

understoodbyothers•  Empowerspeopletobecomemoreac;veandinvolvedin

programmedesign,implementa>onandlearning

Challenges with ToC•  ToCexcessivelydetailed•  Rigiduseforaccountabilityinsteadoflearning

•  Discouraging…overwhelming,impossible•  Drowninanalysisvs.gettoac>ontoosoon•  Notenoughconsulta>on•  Neverusingtheproductsagain–nolearning

ToC Thinking @ Different Levels

ProjectObjec>ve

Step2.Desiredchange

Step3.Currentsitua%on

Step4.Specificchangesneeded

SphereofInfluence

Step5.Priori%sefocusand&changepathways

LongertermConcern

Step6.Strategies

? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Control Step7.MEL

Source:Vanesetal,2015

The relationship between ToC and donor reporting


ToC


Step3.Researchanddescribe

currentsitua;on

Step4.Iden;fywho/what/whereneedsto

changetorealisedesiredchange


changepathways


Step7.DefineMELpriori;esand

process


What? How?

Why?

Sowhat?

ToCisforanalysisandcri>cal

reflec>onandaccountabilitytostakeholders


ToC


Step3.Researchand




changepathways




Theory of

Change

COFFEE

STEP 1: CLARIFY PURPOSE FOR USING TOC

General Purposes for TocPurpose Examples

Programmedesign Analysis,strategicchoices,stakeholderinvolvement,communica>on

Strategyrevision RegularrevisitToC,reviewstrategiesinresponsetochangesandnewinsights

Qualityreviewofexis>ngprogramme

Improvequality,makeassump>onsexplicit,sharpenstrategies

Evalua>on Mid-term,end-term,reconstruc>onofToC,validateassump>ons

Strategiclearningdesign

Learningques>ons,buildingevidencebase,whatworksornotandunderwhichcondi>ons

36

Case Study: Cambodia and pig farming

PURPOSE:TouseToCthinkingtodevelopafiveyearresearchprojectintheCambodiandomes>cpigproduc>onsector.CambodiaOverviewCambodiaisacountryemergingfromconflict.Itcon>nuestostruggleandfacesnumerouschallengesandsociopoli>calissues,includingwidespreadpoverty,pervasivecorrup>on,lackofpoli>calfreedoms,lowhumandevelopment,andahighrateofhunger.Cambodiahasapopula>onof16M,andGDP/PPPisaround3500USD.Whilepercapitaincomeremainslowcomparedtomostneighbouringcountries,CambodiahasoneofthefastestgrowingeconomiesinAsia,withstrongannualgrowthinGDPthelastdecadesof7-8%annually.Agricultureremainsthedominanteconomicsector,withstronggrowthintex>les,construc>on,garments,andtourismleadingtoincreasedforeigninvestmentandinterna>onaltrade.SeeCaseStudyhand-out.

PhotoGStröm

STEP 2, 3 AND 4: DESCRIBING AND UNDERSTANDING CHANGE


ToC


Step3.Researchand




changepathways




Theory of

Change

Step 2: Desired Long Term ChangeEssence•  Definealong-term

transforma>on•  “Headinthe

clouds,feetontheground”

•  Challengingandhard,stretchingbutjustaboutreachablein10-20years’>me

Step 2: Desired Long Term ChangeCoreQues>on

Howoughtthingstobeforthepeoplewewanttobenefit,inthesitua>onwearetryingtoresolve?

TaskWriteapeople-orientedstatementofchange(notanabstractconcept)20mins

Thinkabout…•  Whoisthemostimportantfocusofthechange?Howwouldyouliketheir

livestobeinaposi>vefuturesitua>on?•  Statementshoulddescribethedesiredtransforma>on,withassump>ons•  Tangible,specific,>me-bound

Useful questions are…•  The‘transforma>on’isnotalwaysobvious..•  Heavier,healthierpigs…

– >Sowhat…?->Sothat...?

Developmentisaboutwell-being,environmentallysustainable,qualityoflife,equitableandinclusivetransforma>ons[arethesepar>cularvalues??]

Desired changeBy2026,smallscalepigfarmersareabletoproducegoodqualityporktohighvolumesforsale,andhaveaccesstotheanimalhealthservices,produc>oninputsandcreditservicestheyneedtogrowtheirbusiness.Small-scalefarmershaveformedeffec>veandefficientproducerassocia>onstosupporthigher-volumeproduc>ontomeetthedomes>cmarket.Theyareabletoshareknowledgeoftechnologiesandprac>ces.Theyhavegoodbusinessoutletsinotherregions.Womenfarmersareabletotakechargeofpigproduc>on,maketheirownchoicesabouthowtheyspendtheirprofits,andareinvitedtopar>cipateincommunitybusinessassocia>ons.

Desired Change: Assumptions•  Whyisthischangedesirable?

•  Whydoesthischangemaper(worldview)?

•  Whatconvic>onsaboutchangeisthisbasedon?

•  Whatsocialbeliefsdoesthischangebuildonand/orchallenge?

•  Thischangeisdesirableformarginalisedpeoplebecause….

•  ThischangemaMerstousbecause…

•  Thistransforma%onisbased

ontheconvic%onthatchangehappensthrough…

•  Thischangebuildson/challengesthefollowingcommonbeliefs…

STEP 3: RESEARCH AND DESCRIBE CURRENT SITUATION


ToC


Step3.Researchand




changepathways




Theory of

Change

Step 3. Describe Current Situation

Generatebroadunderstandingofsysteminwhichthedesiredchangeisneeded.

CoreQues)onWhatdoesthecurrentsitua>onlooklikeforwhichthedesiredchangehasbeeniden>fied?

Different ways of exploring the current

situation

Essen%al:Ensurewideconsulta%onand

ownership

Academicresearch

Context,situa>on,powergenderanalyses

Workshopexercisese.g.•  Visionofsuccessexercise•  RichPictureanalysis

Consultthecommuni>es•  Successstories•  Focusgroupdiscussions•  PRAexercises

Moreacademicapproach

MorePRAapproach

Rich Pictures

Describe,don’tjudgeorpriori)se

How to develop a rich picture•  Placeseveralflipchartssoeveryonecaneasilyreachit.•  Eachpersonhasamarker.•  Drawthepeopleandkeychallengesinthecentre,usethe

casestudy•  Startdrawingcurrentsitua>on.

–  Whoarestake-holdersandhowdotheyinfluence,areaffectedbytheissue?

–  Drawaspectsofcontext,causesandeffects,otherrelevantsocial,economic,poli>cal,environmentalfeaturesorissues

–  Ins>tu>ons,structures,processes,inter-rela>onships,issues,conflicts,agreements,resources

–  Drawlinkages.•  Don’tdiscuss,justexplainasyougo.•  Avoidwordswherepossible.

Include ….•  stakeholders&theirstakes(interestin,influenceover,affectedby)•  processesbetweenelementsofthatstructure•  natureofinterrela>onships(e.g.,strong,weak,fast,slow,

conflicted,collabora>ve,direct,indirect)•  importantaspectsofsitua>onthataffecthowstakeholders,stakes,

structuresandprocessesinteract–  purposes,aspira>ons,goals–  mo>va>ons–  valuesandnorms–  environmentalaspects,e.g.,aclimateofopinion–  issues,conflicts,andagreements–  resources(e.g.,people,money,tools,skills)–  geography

Step 3. Tasks & Outputs a.  Drawarichpictureaboutthesitua>onforwhichthechangeis

desired–  namekeystakeholders&theirstakes(interestinandinfluenceover)–  Ins>tu>ons,structures,processes,inter-rela>onships,issues,

conflicts,agreements,resources

b.  Divedeeperby:–  analysingpowerrela>ons–  iden>fyinggenderdynamics

c.  Discussandwritedownassump>onsmade

Wehave40mins

Dive Deeper with Power•  Isdiverse•  Itcanbevisible,hidden,invisible•  Onecanhavepowerover,to,with,within

Reflect:Whichformsofpowerandpowerdynamicsareinfluencingthesitua%on?

Dive deeper with Gender•  Whatgenderdynamicsareatplayhere?•  Whatgenderinequali>esareinfluencingthesystem?

•  Whatgender-differen>atedorgender-relatedopportuni>esarepresent?

GENDER is created … and so is its (in)equality

•  Gender(in)equalityinproblemanalysisinfluenceshowweseewhatmapers

•  Gender-differen>atedneeds,capaci>es,benefits,risks,burden…

•  Notjustaboutcoun>ngwomenandmen…

Current Situation: Assumptions•  Whyhaveweassessedthesitua>onaswedid?

•  Whyarethesethestakeholdersandactorsthatmaper?

•  Whatdowejudgespecificinfluencesashelpingorhindering,par>cularlypowerandgenderdynamics?

1. Wehaveincludedthesestakeholdersbecause….

2. Wehaveiden%fiedfactorsashelpingorhinderingbecause…

3. Wedifferinthefollowingassump%onsbecause….

4. Whererelevant,dowehaveevidencethatourassump%onsaretrue?

STEP 4: IDENTIFY WHO/WHAT/WHERE NEEDS TO CHANGE AND HOW


ToC


Step3.Researchand




changepathways




Theory of

Change


ProjectObjec>ve

Step2.Desiredchange



SphereofInfluence


LongertermConcern

Step6.Strategies

? ? ? ? ? ? ?Control

Step7.MEL

Step 4. Identify Specific Changes Needed

Zoominonandnamewhatpartsofthecurrentsitua%onneedchanging.

CoreQues)onWhoandwhatneedstochangeinwhichwayforthedesiredchangetobecomepossible?

Rich Pictures

What needs to change to support your desired change?

Unstructuredcurrentsitua%on

Isnow….

Isnow….

Isnow….

Isnow….

Who/whatneedstochangeandhow

Setofimprovedbehaviours

Willing, Able, Allowed… … to change behaviour?

•  Awareness •  Knowledge •  Attitude •  Motivation •  Skills •  Opportunity

Hivos | 2014 63

Step 4. Tasks & Outputs a.  Iden>fykeyactors,ins>tu>onsandsystems,

(e.g.marketsystems)b.  Iden>fywhoneedstochangeinwhatway

–  Developalistofstakeholders/actorsinsystems–  Formulateinwhatwayyouwouldliketothemto

act,think,relate–  Choose3-5

c.  Discussandwritedownassump>onsmade40mins

Behaviour statements•  Essen>alforthedesiredchange•  AnactualbehaviourofaspecificplayerorstakeholderExamples•  MinofJus>cera>fiesConven>ononViolenceAgainstWomenandGirls

•  LocalagenciesoftheMinistryforAgriculture,FisheriesandFoodproac>velyconsultfarmers’groupsondistrict-specifictargetsforagriculturalextension

•  Womenproducersandtheirhusbandspar>cipateingenderawarenessandtraining

Step 4. Assumptions about Specific Changes

•  Whyisitthesestakeholders,actors,groups,en>>eswhoneedtochange?

•  Whatareweassumingabouttheirneeds,capaci>es,behaviours,rela>onships,recep>vityandmo>va>ontochange?

Weassumethefollowingabouttheir:•  needs•  currentcapaci%es•  currentbehaviours•  rela%onships•  mo%va%ontochange•  opportunitytochange?

Present like this ....

Desired Change

Stakeholderandbehaviourchangetosupportthe

desiredchange


desiredchange


desiredchange


desiredchange


desiredchange

Assump>on?

Assump>on?

Assump>on?Assump>on?

Assump>on?

STEP 5: PRIORITISE FOCUS AND MAP CHANGE PATHWAYS


ToC


Step3.Researchand




changepathways




Theory of

Change

Step 5: Prioritise your focus and map pathwaysDecidingonandmappingoutyourcontribu%oninthenext5yearsCoreques)onWhatchangeswillyouinfluence,whyandhowinthenext5years?

Step 5: Priorities and Pathways

Tasksa.  Priori>sechangesandstakeholders

tofocuson–3-5pergroupb.  Documentwhyc.  (Mapyourchangepathway)

ASSUMPTIONS

Source,June2014:hpp://www.idrc.ca/EN/Documents/Research-Quality-Plus-Assessment-Instrument.pdf

Use spheres of influence

Actorbehaviour

Partner

Desiredchange

Actorbehaviour

Actorbehaviour

PartnerStakeholders

Stakeholders

Yourproject

Time-line?

Use criteriaOpportunitiesWherearetheopportuni%es/challengesandleveragepointsinthenext5years?Mandate and roleWhatisyourlegi%materoleinthissystem?Collaboration and influenceWhohasinfluenceonthekeyactors?Whoelseisworkingonrelatedagendas,similar/differenttoyou?Whocouldyoucollaboratewithandwhy?Your unique contributionWhatdoyoubringtothechangeprocess?E.g.convening,capacitydevelopment,researchproductsFeasiblilityWhatisyourrealis%cpoten%altoinfluencethesitua%on?

Step 5: Priorities and Pathways

Tasksa.  Priori>sechangesandstakeholders

tofocuson–3-5pergroupb.  Documentwhyc.  (Mapyourchangepathway)

ASSUMPTIONS

Output

a)  andb)Priori>sedselec>onofchangestoinfluence,witharobustjus>fica>onandassump>ons3-5changespergroup

COFFEE

Step 5: Priorities and Pathwaysc. Map your change pathway Tools and Task Map change pathway of specific changes Assumptions


ProjectObjec>ve

Step2.Desiredchange



SphereofInfluence


LongertermConcern

Step6.Strategies

? ? ? ? ? ? ?Control

Step7.MEL

Prioritychange

Change

Change

ChangeChange

Change

Assump)ons Assump;ons

Assump;ons

Assump)onsAssump)ons

Strategies

DesiredChange

Mapping task•  Bringyourprioritychangesandassump>ons•  Volunteers

– Changesonpost-its–1changeperpost-it,samecolour

– Assump>onsonpost-its–1assump>onsperpost-it,samecolour

•  Backwardsmappingfromprioritychange

AssumptionsIfxandyhappens,willzreallybetheresult?Why?Whatarewetakingforgranted?Arethestepstogetherenough,ifnotwhatothersuppor>ngfactorsareneeded?Whatelsemighteachstepleadto-unintendedconsequences,posi>veornega>ve?

STEP 6: DEVELOP STRATEGIES AND INTERVENTIONS


ToC


Step3.Researchand




changepathways




Theory of

Change

Prioritychange

Change

Change

ChangeChange

Change

Assump)ons Assump;ons

Assump;ons

Assump)onsAssump)ons

Strategies

DesiredChange

Step 6: StrategiesTask:Brainstorm:-  Whattypeofresearchprojectdesigndoweneed?E.g.programmevssinglestudy

-  Whatisthedemandforresearchintherelevanttargetgroups(current/poten>al)?

-  Whatcommunica>on/engagementisneededtoinfluencebehaviourchange?

-  Whatcapacitybuildingisneeded?Forwhom?

20mins

STEP 7: DEFINING PMEL PRIORITIES AND PROCESS

Generic areas for research MEL1.Strategyanddirec;on:‘Arewedoingtherightthing?’

2.Managementandgovernance:‘Areweimplemen>ngthe

planaseffec>velyaspossible?’

3.Researchproducts:‘Areoutputsaudience-appropriateanddothey

meettherequiredstandards?’

4.Uptake:‘Arepeopleaccessingandsharingourwork?’

5.Behaviourchange,networkchange,otheroutcomesinToC:‘Whatkindsofeffectsorchangeshavetheworkcontributedto?’

6.Context:‘Howdoesthechangingpoli>cal,economic,socialandorganisa>onalclimateaffectourplansandintendedoutcomes?

Howshouldweadaptourprogramme?’(TinaPasanenandLouiseShaxson,ODIhpps://www.odi.org/publica>ons/10284-design-monitoring-evalua>on-framework-policy-research-project)

ToC Quality AuditPrinciples Weak Haspoten;al Reasonable Robust

Comprehensiveanalysis

Superficial,uncri>cal,business-as-usual

Somenewthinking,withbiggapsincri>calthinking

Cri>calthoughtonmostareas,unclearinsomeareas,mainlybasedonknownstrategies

Cri>cal,clear,focused,considerswiderangeofperspec>ves,informa>onandstrategies

Powerandgenderaware

Nothoughtonpowerorgenderdynamics

Weakand/orpar>alpowerorgenderanalysis

Powerandgenderlensusedbutsomeareasorimplica>onss>llunderdeveloped

Powerandgenderlensesclearlyinformanalysisandstrategies

Ar%culatedassump%ons

Noneexceptmostbasic/obvious

Somebutnotsystema>c,clearorcri>cal

Fairlycompletebutnotallwellformulated

Clear,comprehensive,cri>calonesiden>fied

Par%cipa%on Veryfewpeopleinvolvedadhocinformula>onorreview

Inten>onalinclusionofsomeplayersinformula>onorreview

Clearprocessfordiverseinputplannedwithwidepar>cipa>oninsomeaspectsbutnotfullyrealised

Clearprocessimplementedwithcri>calinputfromdiverserelevantplayers

Ac%veuse Collec>ngdust Usedinfrequently,onrequest

Someproac>veusebutnotupdated

Frequentuseandupda>ng

Vanesetal,2015

CloseAims:•  BasicunderstandingofToCapproach•  Interestandenthusiasm!

•  Reflec>ons•  Feedbackforms

Additional resources •  ‘HivosGuidetoToC:AStepwiseapproach’,MarjanVanEs,IreneGuijtand

IsabelVogel,2015hpp://www.theoryofchange.nl/resource/theory-change-thinking-prac>ce-stepwise-approach•  ‘TheoriesofChange:>meforaradicalapproachtolearningin

development’,CraigValters,2015hpps://www.odi.org/publica>ons/9883-theories-change->me-radical-approach-learning-development•  ‘Howtodesignamonitoringandevalua>onframeworkforapolicyresearch

project’,TinaPasanenandLouiseShaxson,2016hpps://www.odi.org/publica>ons/10284-design-monitoring-evalua>on-framework-policy-research-project•  ‘AreviewoftheuseofToCininterna>onaldevelopment’,IsabelVogel2012hpps://www.gov.uk/government/news/dfid-research-review-of-the-use-of-theory-of-change-in-interna>onal-development

THANK YOU!

isabel vogel - introduction to theory of change for agricultural development

Leadership & Management