Global Strategy

to Improve

Agricultural Statistics

ISI Satellite Conference on Agricultural StatisticsFred Vogel August 13, 2009

Purpose of the Strategy

• Provide the vision for a statistical system to support decision making requirements in the 21st century

• Reflect data/information requirements – Policy –markets--investment

• Establish methodological framework for statistical capacity building

Purpose of the Presentation

• Provide an overview of the draft strategy– Key point is that the strategy is still under

development—main purpose of this meeting is for more input

• Set the stage for the discussions to follow

• Provide the framework to reach agreement on the basic principles

Overview of the presentation

• Why need a global strategy?– Basic and emerging data requirements– Conceptual framework for agriculture– Assessment of current agricultural

statistics• Steps to develop the strategy• Governance to meet strategic goals• Data quality, capacity building, and the

way forward

Crop productionForecasts

And estimates

LivestockInventories

And production

Prices Stocks

Aquaculture & Fishery

Production

ForestryInventory

& Production

Basic Data Requirements

Declining quantity andQuality of data,

Or simplyNot available

Food price Crises

GlobalEconomy

Energy CostsBio Fuels

Agriculture’sAffect on TheEnvironment

Land and

Wateruse

Global warmingClimate change

MillenniumDevelopment

Goals

Emerging Data Requirements

Happening atSame time,

Are inter-related,Much data not available

Conceptual Framework—Agricultural production

Natural Environment,

(climate, soil, water)

Output andUtilization

Food, feed, seed,Fiber, Etc.

Inputs to Production

(labor, capital, land,

Feed, seed, Etc.)

Socio-economic,Political

(Households, holdings’enterprises

InstitutionalFramework

(Markets, governmentGlobal economy)

Outcomes andResults

(National income,Food security)

The production process(growing crops, raising livestock,

Fish capture, timber removals)

Conceptual Framework

• Broaden scope to include forestry, fisheries

• Statistical units: Agriculture holding, household, and establishments

• Inclusion of rural and rural communities

• Scope includes production by households

• Land cover and use, Water use

Statistics—Current StatusDeclining response

--Percentage Response to FAO by region-- Region

Production Land use Machinery

Europe 66 71 64 Asia & Pacific 63 32 33 Americas 38 17 28

Africa 34 13 13 Near East 37 37

Statistics—current status

• Declining number of countries reporting basic production

• Loss of statistical capacity• Agriculture left out of National

Strategies for Development of Statistics• Duplicative efforts-conflicting numbers• Forestry, fisheries outside national and

agricultural systems

Statistics current status -The Dilemma – who does what

• National Statistics Offices

• Ministry – Departments of Agriculture

• Land Management/Natural Resources Agencies

• Marketing Boards/ Commissions

• Health, education agencies

• Development efforts by donors, WB

Each Collects

data for own use

with results that

do not always

agree – and limited

ability to

share data

Assessment of Agricultural Statistics

• The assessment remains to be completed

• The scope of capacity building will depend on the assessment of the statistical system to meet the requirements of the global strategy

Steps to determine the strategy

• Develop a menu of indicators– FAO evaluations– World Bank/FAO Source Book of Indicators– FAO World Programme for Ag Census

• Identify a minimum sub set of core data items that meets most urgent data needs

• Determine additional national data needed• Determine methodology, governance,

capacity building needed

Menu of Indicators

• Meets basic and emerging requirements– Data to estimate each indicator, sources,– Technical notes/ classifications, etc– More than any one country can do annually

• Shows where indicators require overlapping data (crop production/ land/water use/ input use, etc.)

• Determine a minimum subset of core all countries agree to provide annually

• Evaluate national needs to select additional items, determine frequency

Choice of Core

• About 15 major commodities account for over 95 percent of world production– Production, prices, trade,--balances– Value added, food security, productivity– Land, water use– Plus Forestry, aquaculture & fishery

• Major economic variables– Labor, household income, agricultural income

inputs, demographics, consumption

What add to national system?

• Provide ranking of items– Percent of land/water use– Percent value of production– Percent of HH/enterprises producing– Distributions by size– Scale—affect on environment, climate – Permanent or temporary

Table D. Frequency of coverage by geographic and structural detail. Level of geographic and structural detail Data Item National Major

Production Areas

Within country administrative areas

Size and/or type of household and or holding

Crop A Annual Annual Decennial Decennial livestock B Bi annual Bi annual Decennial Decennial

Lesson for international organizations requesting data.

Base requests on country capability to meet annual vs less frequent data requirements.

How meet core and national requirements?

• Points to need to integrate agriculture into national statistical system

• Agreed upon set of methodology• Governance to coordinate if have

decentralized system

Global Strategy to ImproveAgricultural Statistics

Data requirements andConceptual Framework

Menu of indicatorsMinimum set of“core-national”

Data items

Integrate Agriculture into

National statistics System

Methodology to Integrate

Agriculture

MasterSampleFrame

IntegratedData Base

Integrated SurveyFramework

Governance and Statistical Capacity Building

Census of Population

And Housing

AreaFrame/ classifiedBy land use viaRemote sensing

Rural HH

Farm HH

AgCensus

Master Sampling Frame

Developing the Master Sampling Frame

Primary SamplingUnits

Villages/clusters

SampleGridspoints

Geo reference

NonHouseholdEnterprises

CensusEnumeration

areas

Integrated Survey Framework

Master Sampling Frame(Population/agricultural census data

Geo referenced to land use)

Annual Survey(s) core & NationalHousehold holdings & enterprises

Periodic surveys,(2-5 year cycles)

QuarterlySemi-

AnnualMonthly

Supply and utilization, income, &Environmental accounts,

Food Balances, etc.

CommunitySurveys

WindshieldSurveys

AdministrativeData

RemoteSensing

Agribusinesses

IntegratedData Bases

Integrated data bases

• Official statistics– Harmonized definitions and classifications– Each item appear one time; i.e. one official

number for everything from population, GDP, to maize forecast or production.

• Micro data—long term view– Connect across surveys over time– Increase analytical capabilities

The governance challenge

• How coordinate efforts of Ministries of Agriculture, National Statistical Offices, and others?

• Who does what—Master sample frame, Integrated Survey Frame work, Integrated data base?

• Starting point—form a Statistical Council• Build off strengths of each stakeholder

– Technical expertise– Subject matter knowledge

The governance challenge

• Role of national organizations– Add agriculture (forestry and fisheries) to

National Strategies for Development of Statistics– Focus fund raising on national statistical system

• Role of international organizations– Focus capacity building and support for statistics

on overall national statistical system– Centers of excellence-statistics, remote sensing?

• Role of Donors– Work with Statistical Council instead of separate

sectors

Challenges needing research

• Crop yield forecasts and estimates– Mult-cropping– Root crops– Use of remote sensing with ground truth

• Sampling and survey methodology for integrated survey framework

• Use of remote sensing to monitor land use-early warning capabilities

• Geo referencing survey data with satellite digitized frame

The global strategy and data quality for agriculture

• Data quality dimensions for agriculture– Accuracy—trade-off with timeliness– Timeliness-related to production cycle – Comparability across time and countries– Availability—Official data/ micro data

• Driven by needs of data users and customers

Capacity Building Challenge

• Building infrastructure—statisticians-data collectors, etc

• Education on statistical methodology, technology (GPS), remote sensing

• Date analysis—how to use the data to answer questions

• Build sustainable system

The way forward

• National input—Min of AG, National Statistical Offices & other stakeholders– Review and update National Strategies for

Development of Statistics• International input from stakeholders

– ISI Satellite meeting on agricultural statistics

• Develop final strategy for 2010 UNSC• Develop Implementation Plan

Thank you

Table C Factors to determine inclusion and the frequency of additional crop and livestock items in a country’s national statistical system.

Examples of products, inputs, or services

Utilizes % of total land/water

% of total value of production from agriculture

Year to year change in value

% of Households or enterprises

producing

% of production by commercial enterprises

Impact on environment and climate change

Scale 1 to 10

Permanent or temporary crop

Wheat Maize

Rice Cassava Nuts potatoes Olives Grapes Cattle Ducks Captured fish Cultured fish Timber

The purpose of this exercise is to provide measures of the relative importance of all components of a nation’s agriculture, land/water use, economy, environment, and impact on climate change. These measures can be input to the decision on the frequency for which data are provided; for example annually, periodic, or during the population and/or agricultural census.

Table D. Frequency of coverage by geographic and structural detail. Level of geographic and structural detail Data Item

National Major Production Areas

Within country administrative areas

Size and/or type of household and or holding

Crop A Annual Annual Decennial Decennial Crop B Bi annual Bi annual Decennial Decennial

Census of Population

And Housing

AreaFrame/ classifiedBy land use viaRemote sensing

Rural HH

Farm HH

AgCensus

Master Sampling Frame

Developing the Master Sampling Frame

Primary SamplingUnits

Villages/clusters

SampleGridspoints

Geo reference

NonHouseholdEnterprises

CensusEnumeration

areas

Census of Population

And Housing

AreaFrame/ classifiedBy land use viaRemote sensing

Rural HH

Farm HH

AgCensus

Master Sampling Frame

Developing the Master Sampling Frame

Primary SamplingUnits

Villages/clusters

SampleGridspoints

Geo reference

NonHouseholdEnterprises

CensusEnumeration

areas

Census of Population

And Housing

AreaFrame/ classifiedBy land use viaRemote sensing

Rural HH

Farm HH

AgCensus

Master Sampling Frame

Developing the Master Sampling Frame

Primary SamplingUnits

Villages/clusters

SampleGridspoints

Geo reference

NonHouseholdEnterprises

CensusEnumeration

areas

The Policy Challenge

• Agriculture primary source to feed and clothe a growing global population

• While doing so, must:– Raise millions out of poverty– Reduce agriculture’s affect on the

environment and global warming– Sustain water and land resources

• Determine information needed to make policy decisions, monitor their effect