is outcome the new alpha? - s&p dow jones indices · he is a chartered alternative investment...
TRANSCRIPT
Is Outcome the New Alpha?
Thursday, October 24, 2013, at 10:00 a.m. (EST) – 3:00pm (BST)
For Financial Professionals/Not for Public Distribution
Analytic services and products by S&P Dow Jones Indices are the result of separate activities designed to preserve
the independence and objectivity of each analytic process. S&P Dow Jones Indices has established policies and
procedures to maintain the confidentiality of non-public information received during each analytic process.
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
CE Credits
This webinar is approved for 1-hour CFA
Email [email protected] if you have not already indicated that you would like to receive credit for this webinar. For CFA credit, please provide your CFA ID number. Credit is not available for replays of this webinar.
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Disclaimer
S&P Dow Jones Indices emphasizes to participants that Walter Cegarra and Mebane Faber are guest speakers and are not affiliated with S&P Dow Jones Indices and that S&P Dow Jones Indices is not providing endorsements as to the opinions expressed which are those of the guest speakers for this webinar. S&P Dow Jones Indices offers no guarantees or warranties as to the accuracy and reliability of opinions expressed.
Guest speakers are not affiliated with S&P Dow Jones Indices and S&P Dow Jones Indices does not sponsor, endorse, sell, or promote any product based on an S&P Dow Jones index nor does it make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in the products. S&P Dow Jones Indices and S&P Capital IQ are analytically separate and independent businesses.
3
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Tim Edwards
4
Moderator
Director, Index Strategy
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Tim Edwards is director of Index Investment Strategy for S&P Dow Jones Indices. The group provides research and commentary on the entire S&P Dow Jones Indices product set, including U.S. and global equities, commodities, fixed income, and economic indices.
Prior to joining S&P Dow Jones Indices, Tim worked at Barclays Capital, where he had global responsibility for product development of exchange-traded notes across all asset classes, covering commodities, volatility, foreign exchange, fixed income and emerging markets.
Tim holds a PhD in mathematics from University College London.
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Walter Cegarra
5
Managing Director
Credit Suisse
Walter Cegarra is a Managing Director in the Investment Banking division of Credit Suisse, based in London. He is Head of Product Management Origination for EMEA, within Fund Linked Products and Equity Derivatives. In particular, Walter heads the Business Development for the Systematic Strategies offering.
Mr. Cegarra joined Credit Suisse in June 2009 from Lehman Brothers where he was Co-Head of Structuring for Structured Asset Management, based in London. Prior to that position, he worked at Credit Agricole CIB (f.k.a. Credit Lyonnais) for nine years in New York and London, in different structuring and marketing roles across equities and fixed income, more recently as Head of Alternative Managers Structuring for Equity & Fund Derivatives. Mr. Cegarra holds a master's degree in economics and finance from ESCP Europe, France.
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Xiaowei Kang
6
Senior Director, Research
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Xiaowei Kang is senior director, index research and design at S&P Indices, leading the quantitative index research and design and thought leadership efforts in the EMEA region. Xiaowei is also responsible for the development of index products and strategies across asset classes. Prior to joining S&P Dow Jones Indices, Xiaowei worked for MSCI Barra in the equity and applied research group. Before MSCI Barra, Xiaowei was vice president of credit indices at Markit.
Xiaowei is a CFA charter holder and holds a masters degree in economics and management science from the Humboldt University of Berlin. He has published several papers in leading industry journals, and has been frequently quoted in the financial media.
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Mebane Faber
7
Chief Investment Officer
Cambria Investment Management
Mr. Faber is a co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management. Faber is the manager of Cambria’s ETFs, separate accounts and private investment funds for accredited investors. Mr. Faber has authored numerous white papers and two books: Shareholder Yield and The Ivy Portfolio.
He is a frequent speaker and writer on investment strategies and has been featured in Barron’s, The New York Times, and The New Yorker.
Mr. Faber graduated from the University of Virginia with a double major in Engineering Science and Biology. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA), and Chartered Market Technician (CMT).
Constructing Outcome Driven Investment
Strategies - Systematically
Walter Cegarra, Managing Director
For discussion purposes only – Not for onward distribution
S&P Dow Jones Indices Webinar – Is Outcome the New Alpha ?
9
Outcome Driven Investment
1. Historically
Investment decisions driven by… Asset classes
Market opportunities
2. Now
Investment decisions also targeting a specific impact on the investors’ portfolio – so as to,
more precisely, ensure that such decision will deliver an identified outcome
What do we mean ?
Examples
Outcome Objective
Capital preservation • Minimize potential loss of capital
Regular income distribution • Insure regular and/or minimum level of income distribution
Portfolio risk management • Reduce volatility and/or potential drawdown of an existing portfolio
10
Outcome Driven Investment - Implementation
Outcome driven overlays
Outcome driven strategies
Outcome as a layer “on top” of the investment strategy:
Through a structured solution, possible to construct an outcome driven investment linked to any
existing underlying investment strategy
For example:
100% principal protected note linked to a DJ Index
Coupon paying note linked to a Cambria managed Fund
Outcome embedded into the investment strategy:
Investment strategies can be designed embedding the requirement for a particular identified
outcome
For example:
High income generating investment strategy
Equity like return without equity like volatility
11
Measuring Market Sentiment
Euphoria
Panic
Confidence
Greed
Anxiety
Fear
Confidence
Jonathan Wilmot (CS Chief Global Strategist) and his team have spent over 16 years developing a method of
measuring market sentiment globally
12
Being Contrarian - Systematically
Source: Credit Suisse. Further information is available on the construction of GRAI
"I always say you should get greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy”
Warren Buffett, Fortune Magazine April 2008
EUPHORIA
PANIC
13
Simple Investment Process
Equities 2. Bottom Up
Equity portfolio selected by CS
HOLT)
Fixed Income portfolio based
on global government bonds
1. Top Down
Portfolio allocation driven by a
proprietary measure of market
sentiment (GRAI)
3. Risk Management
Equity allocation ranges from 100% to
0% according to the investment
process
Combining Top Down Macro Asset Allocation and Bottom Up Portfolio Selection
Fixed
Income
Source: Credit Suisse. Further information is available on the construction of GRAI and the Investment Process
14
Top Down Macro Asset Allocation driven by GRAI
Panic
Top Down Asset Allocation
GRAI
Euphoria Neutral
Source: Credit Suisse. Further information is available on the construction of GRAI and the Investment Process
RISK CONTROL
Equities
Fixed Income
Equities
Fixed Income
Equities
Fixed Income
TREND
FOLLOWING
15
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13
Credit Suisse Risk Appetite Investable Index Total Return (RAII HOLT)
Citigroup World Government Bond Index
MSCI World Equity Index
Balanced Portfolio
What Outcome ?
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse. Live performance shown since 6th April 2010. Data as of 30th September 2013
Past performance is not an indication of future returns
Live performance shown for Apr 2010 – Sep 2013
To
tal
Re
turn
(U
SD
)
Annualized
Return
+10.1%
+11.3%
+7.0%
+3.5%
Eq
uit
y W
eig
ht
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13
16
15.2%
17.8%
6.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Credit Suisse Risk
Appetite Investable
Index Total Return
MSCI World
(Equities)
Citi World Govt Bonds
Index
Outcome…
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse. Live performance from 6th April 2010. Data as of 30th September 2013
Past performance is not an indication of future returns
… Equity like return with lower downside
11.3%10.1%
3.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Credit Suisse Risk
Appetite Investable
Index Total Return
MSCI World
(Equities)
Citi World Govt Bonds
Index
0.72
0.550.50
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Credit Suisse Risk
Appetite Investable
Index Total Return
MSCI World
(Equities)
Citi World Govt Bonds
Index
Annualized Return (USD) Annualized Volatility (USD)
Sharpe Ratio (USD) Maximum Drawdown (USD)
-15.1%
-33.4%
-8.9%
-40%
-20%
0%
Credit Suisse Risk
Appetite Investable Index
Total Return
MSCI World
(Equities)
Citi World Govt Bonds
Index
17
Outcome Driven Investment
Today’s investor requires a greater degree of certainty in their investment strategies – generally
looking for guarantees that a certain amount of capital/income will be available at a certain point
in time.
At Credit Suisse, we approach outcome driven investments in two ways:
- using structured solutions to offer a particular outcome on top of another investment
strategy;
- embedding certain outcome requirements into the strategy itself.
We believe the key to success often lies in Systematic Investment Strategies which optimise
intellectual capital during the development process but ensure rules-based efficiency in the
execution phase.
The New Alpha
18
Important Information This information has been issued and approved by Credit Suisse International (“CS”), which is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom. This material is provided to you by CS or any of its affiliates solely for informational purposes, is intended for your use only and does not constitute an offer or commitment, a solicitation of an offer or commitment, or any advice or personal recommendation, to enter into or conclude any transaction (whether on the indicative terms shown or otherwise). This material is solely directed at Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by the Prudential Regulation Authority. This material is not directed at, and should not be relied upon by, Retail Clients.
This material has been prepared by CS based on assumptions and parameters determined by it in good faith. The assumptions and parameters used are not the only ones that might reasonably have been selected and therefore no guarantee is given as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any such quotations, disclosure or analyses. A variety of other or additional assumptions or parameters, or other market factors and other considerations, could result in different contemporaneous good faith analyses or assessment of the transaction described above. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Opinions and estimates may be changed without notice. The information set forth above has been obtained from or based upon sources believed by CS to be reliable, but CS does not represent or warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire. In all cases, interested parties should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the transaction(s) described in these materials and of the data set forth in them. Neither CS, nor its Directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable in any circumstances for any direct, indirect loss arising from the use of the information provided in the marketing material. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. Each person receiving these materials should make an independent assessment of the merits of pursuing a transaction described in these materials and should consult their own professional advisors.
CS may, from time to time, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the issuers of the securities referred to herein, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or derivatives thereof.
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own investigation and analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. Hypothetical, back-tested or simulated performance may not reflect the impact that material economic or market factors might have on an adviser’s decision making process if the adviser were actually managing a client’s portfolio. The back-testing of performance differs from actual account performance because the investment strategy may be adjusted at any time, for any reason and can continue to be changed until desired or better performance results are achieved. The back-tested performance includes hypothetical results that do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage or other commissions, and any other expenses that a client would have paid or actually paid. No representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Alternative modelling techniques or assumptions might produce significantly different results and prove to be more appropriate. Past hypothetical, back- test or simulated results are neither indicators nor guarantees for future returns. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical, back-tested and simulated performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved. As an investor, you accept and agree to use such information only for the purpose of discussion with CS your preliminary interest in investing in the strategy described herein. The information set forth above has been obtained from or based upon sources believed by CS to be reliable, but CS does not represent or warrant its accuracy or completeness. Neither CS, nor its Directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable in any circumstances for any direct, indirect loss arising from the use of the information provided in the marketing material. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire. In all cases, interested parties should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the transaction(s) described in these materials and of the data set forth in them. Each person receiving these materials should make an independent assessment of the merits of pursuing a transaction described in these materials and should consult their own professional advisors. CS may, from time to time, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the issuers of the securities referred to herein, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or derivatives thereof. Nothing in this marketing material constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice and those clients/investors should obtain specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Date Completed: 21st October 2013
Indexing Multi-Asset Solutions & Strategies
Xiaowei Kang
24 October 2013
For Financial Professionals. Not for Public Distribution PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of S&P Dow Jones Indices
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Introduction
• “There is no way to predict the price of stocks and bonds over the next few days or weeks. But it is quite possible to foresee the broad course of these prices over longer periods, such as the next three to five years. These findings, which might seem both surprising and contradictory, were made and analyzed by this year’s Laureates, Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller.” ― 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics Press Release
• Efficient Markets vs. Behavioral Finance
20
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Evolution in the Asset Management Industry and Indexation
21 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
The Rise of Multi-Asset Solutions
• As investors increasingly demand outcome oriented solutions that address their specific needs, multi-asset solutions and strategies are becoming more mainstream in the asset management industry
22
Source: Boston Consulting Group. Solutions include target date, absolute return, global asset allocation, income, volatility, LDI, etc.
Alternatives include hedge funds, PE, real estate, infrastructure, and commodities. Active specialties include equity specialties (global,
international, emerging markets, small cap, sectors, etc) and fixed income specialties (credit, emerging markets, global, high yield, and
convertibles). Active core includes active domestic large cap equity, active government fixed income, money markets, and traditional balanced
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Examples of Multi-Asset Index Solutions
23
Target Date Dow Jones
Target Date Indices
Target Volatility S&P Risk Control Indices
Diversification/
Risk Parity Salient Risk Parity Index
Income Zacks Multi-Asset
Income Index
Real Assets PIMCO Inflation
Response Index
Absolute Return Barclays Cross-Asset
Risk Premia Index
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
• Case Study: Multi-Asset Risk Parity Strategy
24
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Traditional Approach to Asset Allocation
• The traditional approach to asset allocation focuses on dollar allocation across asset classes to achieve portfolio diversification
• As equities contribute a disproportionately higher amount of risk than its dollar allocation, traditional balanced portfolios are typically poorly diversified in terms of risk allocation
• Risk parity strategy aims to address the over-concentration of portfolio risks in equities by balancing the risk contributions from individual asset classes or risk factors
25
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, Barclays. Data from December 31, 1978 to December 31, 2012. The traditional 60/40
portfolio is represented by 60% S&P 500 Index / 40% Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. Charts are provided for
illustrative purposes. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Some data reflected in this chart may reflect
hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosure at the end of this document for more
information on some of the inherent limitations associated with back-tested index data and performance information.
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
A Stylized Multi-Asset Risk Parity Portfolio
• We demonstrate a stylized risk parity strategy, using the following asset classes to proxy key risk factors: US equities, emerging markets equities, treasury bonds, high yield bonds, commodities, ad REITs
26 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, Barclays. Data from June 30, 1993 to June 30, 2013. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Performance of Risk Parity vs. other Simple Asset Allocation Strategies
27
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, Barclays, MSCI. Data from June 30, 1993 to June 30, 2013. The traditional 60/40 portfolio is represented by 60% S&P 500 Index / 40% Barclays US
Aggregate Bond Index. The asset classes underlying the multi-asset portfolio are represented by the S&P 500, MSCI Emerging Markets, Barclays US Long Treasury, Barclays US
Corporate High Yield, S&P GSCI, and Dow Jones US Select REITs. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Some data
reflected in this chart may reflect hypothetical historical performance. Please see the Performance Disclosure at the end of this document for more information on some of the inherent
limitations associated with back-tested index data and performance information.
Historical Performance: June 1993 – June 2013
Traditional 60/40 Equal Weight Volatility Weighted Risk Parity Minimum Variance
20-Year
Annual Return 8.0% 9.1% 9.3% 9.3% 8.4%
Annual Risk 9.2% 11.1% 8.9% 7.8% 7.2%
Sharpe Ratio 0.54 0.56 0.71 0.80 0.75
Max Drawdown -32.0% -40.7% -28.7% -17.8% -12.4%
10-Year
Annual Return 6.6% 10.2% 10.4% 10.7% 9.3%
Annual Risk 8.8% 12.8% 10.3% 8.5% 7.9%
Sharpe Ratio 0.56 0.67 0.85 1.07 0.97
Max Drawdown -32.0% -40.7% -28.7% -17.8% -12.4%
5-Year
Annual Return 7.0% 5.5% 8.2% 9.1% 9.0%
Annual Risk 11.2% 16.4% 13.2% 10.6% 9.8%
Sharpe Ratio 0.59 0.31 0.59 0.82 0.88
Max Drawdown -26.1% -38.8% -26.6% -16.3% -12.0%
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Implementation Challenges of Risk Parity Strategy
• The risk parity strategy illustrated here is just a highly stylized example. The actual implementation of risk parity may need to factor in many other considerations
• Challenge I: Asset class based risk parity may not achieve true parity in terms of underlying risk factors
– Many risky asset classes such as DM equities, EM equities, REITs, commodities and high yield bonds are all exposed to the same underlying risk of economic growth
• Challenge II: Risk parity portfolios tend to overweight bonds, which may have low expected return in the current low interest rate environment
– Some critics of risk parity attribute its recent outperformance to the two-decade long bond bull market
• Challenge III: The performance of (passive) risk parity strategies can be highly dependent on the chosen asset classes or risk factors
• Challenge IV: The dilemma of using leverage in risk parity strategies
28
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
• Case Study: A Multi-Asset Approach to Inflation Protection
29
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Diversified Real Asset Portfolio
30
Core Equities
Commodities
Natural Resources Stocks
REITs
Core Fixed IncomeTIPS
Gold
Low Inflation High
Hig
h G
row
th L
ow
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, Barclays, Bloomberg. Data from December 31, 1997 to December 31, 2012. The Static Allocation contains 30% TIPS,
20% commodities, 20% natural resources stocks, 20% REITs and 10% gold; the Risk Parity Allocation determines the asset class weights by equalizing
their risk contribution; the Tactical Allocation tactically overweight and underweight assets based on a widely followed economic indicator, the Economic
Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Leading Economic Indicator Index.
• There is no single real asset that can protect a portfolio in all economic environments
• Individual inflation sensitive assets also vary significantly in their sensitivity to inflation, and consistency of hedging protection
Commodities
Natural
Resources
Stocks
REITs Gold TIPSStatic
Allocation
Risk Parity
Allocation
Tactical
Allocation
Inflation Beta 14.4 9.8 5.2 3.1 1.1 6.5 5.5 4.3
Frequency of
Beating Inflation61% 65% 74% 77% 82% 81% 88% 82%
Individual Real Assets Diversified Real Asset Portfolios
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Diversified Real Asset Portfolio: Historical Performance
31
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, Barclays, Bloomberg. Data from June 30, 1998 to June 30, 2013.
• The multi-asset portfolios also delivered more balanced risk and return characteristics, confirming the diversification benefits of blending multiple inflation sensitive assets
– The risk parity allocation achieved significantly lower volatility than the static allocation
– The tactical allocation improved returns over the static allocation
Commodities
Natural
Resources
Stocks
REITs Gold TIPSStatic
Allocation
Risk Parity
Allocation
Tactical
Allocation
Annual Return 7.0% 8.2% 9.8% 9.7% 6.7% 9.1% 9.2% 11.0%
Annual Risk 21.8% 23.9% 23.3% 17.7% 6.2% 12.1% 10.4% 11.2%
Sharpe Ratio 0.21 0.25 0.32 0.42 0.71 0.56 0.67 0.78
Individual Assets Multi-Asset Portfolios
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Performance Disclosure
32
In the Risk Parity case study, the traditional 60/40 portfolio is represented by 60% S&P 500 Index / 40% Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. U.S. Equities are represented by the S&P 500 Index; Emerging Markets Equities are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index; Long-term Treasuries are represented by the Barclays US Long Treasury Index; High Yield Bonds are represented by the Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index; Commodities are represented by the S&P GSCI, and REITs are represented by the Dow Jones US Select REITs Index. In the Real Asset case study, Commodities, Natural Resources Stocks, REITs, Gold, and TIPS are respectively represented by the S&P GSCI, S&P North America Natural Resources Sector Index, Dow Jones US Select REITs Index, gold bullion price, and Barclays US TIPS Index. The S&P GSCI was launched on May 1, 1991. All information provided prior to the Launch Date are back-tested. Back-tested performance is not actual performance, but is hypothetical. The back-tested calculations are based on the same methodology that was in effect on the Launch Date. Complete index methodology details are available at www.spindices.com. The S&P North America Natural Resources Sector Index was launched on Feb. 1, 2007. All information provided prior to the Launch Date are back-tested. Back-tested performance is not actual performance, but is hypothetical. The back-tested calculations are based on the same methodology that was in effect on the Launch Date. Complete index methodology details are available at www.spindices.com. Dow Jones US Select REITs was launched on Dec. 31, 1998. All information provided prior to the Launch Date are back-tested. Back-tested performance is not actual performance, but is hypothetical. The back-tested calculations are based on the same methodology that was in effect on the Launch Date. Complete index methodology details are available at www.spindices.com. Past performance of the Index is not an indication of future results. Prospective application of the methodology used to construct the Index may not result in performance commensurate with the back-test returns shown. The back-test period does not necessarily correspond to the entire available history of the Index. Please refer to the methodology paper for the Index, available at www.spdji.com or www.spindices.com for more details about the index, including the manner in which it is rebalanced, the timing of such rebalancing, criteria for additions and deletions, as well as all index calculations. It is not possible to invest directly in an Index.
Another limitation of back-tested hypothetical information is that generally the back-tested calculation is prepared with the benefit of hindsight. Back-tested data reflect the application of the index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No hypothetical record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, there are numerous factors related to the equities (or fixed income, or commodities) markets in general which cannot be, and have not been accounted for in the preparation of the index information set forth, all of which can affect actual performance. The Index returns shown do not represent the results of actual trading of investible assets/securities. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC maintains the Index and calculates the Index levels and performance shown or discussed, but does not manage actual assets. Index returns do not reflect payment of any sales charges or fees an investor may pay to purchase the securities underlying the Index or investment funds that are intended to track the performance of the Index. The imposition of these fees and charges would cause actual and back-tested performance of the securities/fund to be lower than the Index performance shown. As a simple example, if an index returned 10% on a US $100,000 investment for a 12-month period (or US$ 10,000) and an actual asset-based fee of 1.5% was imposed at the end of the period on the investment plus accrued interest (or US$ 1,650), the net return would be 8.35% (or US$ 8,350) for the year. Over 3 years, an annual 1.5% fee taken at year end with an assumed 10% return per year would result in a cumulative gross return of 33.10%, a total fee of US$ 5,375, and a cumulative net return of 27.2% (or US$ 27,200).
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
General Disclaimer
Copyright © 2013 by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Standard & Poor’s, S&P, S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”), a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”). Trademarks have been licensed to S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Redistribution, reproduction and/or photocopying in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission. This document does not constitute an offer of services in jurisdictions where S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, S&P or their respective affiliates (collectively “S&P Dow Jones Indices”) do not have the necessary licenses. All information provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. S&P Dow Jones Indices receives compensation in connection with licensing its indices to third parties. Past performance of an index is not a guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments based on that index. S&P Dow Jones Indices does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that is offered by third parties and that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any index. S&P Dow Jones Indices makes no assurance that investment products based on the index will accurately track index performance or provide positive investment returns. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC is not an investment advisor, and S&P Dow Jones Indices makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle. A decision to invest in any such investment fund or other investment vehicle should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth in this document. Prospective investors are advised to make an investment in any such fund or other vehicle only after carefully considering the risks associated with investing in such funds, as detailed in an offering memorandum or similar document that is prepared by or on behalf of the issuer of the investment fund or other vehicle. Inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by S&P Dow Jones Indices to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice. Closing prices for S&P US benchmark indices and Dow Jones US benchmark indices are calculated by S&P Dow Jones Indices based on the closing price of the individual constituents of the index as set by their primary exchange (i.e., NYSE, NASDAQ, NYSE MKT, NYSE Arca). Closing prices are received by S&P Dow Jones Indices from one of its third party vendors and verified by comparing them with prices from an alternative vendor. The vendors receive the closing price from the primary exchanges. Real-time intraday prices are calculated similarly without a second verification.]
These materials have been prepared solely for informational purposes based upon information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No content contained in these materials (including index data, ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse-engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P Dow Jones Indices and its third-party data providers and licensors (collectively “S&P Dow Jones Indices Parties”) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Dow Jones Indices Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content. THE CONTENT IS PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS. S&P DOW JONES INDICES PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Dow Jones Indices Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. S&P Dow Jones Indices keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P Dow Jones Indices may have information that is not available to other business units. S&P Dow Jones Indices has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. In addition, S&P Dow Jones Indices provides a wide range of services to, or relating to, many organizations, including issuers of securities, investment advisers, broker-dealers, investment banks, other financial institutions and financial intermediaries, and accordingly may receive fees or other economic benefits from those organizations, including organizations whose securities or services they may recommend, rate, include in model portfolios, evaluate or otherwise address.
33
Click to edit Master title
style
Click to edit Master subtitle style Investment Management
for High Net Worth
Individuals and Institutions
• Multi Asset Allocation
• October, 2013
Click to edit Master title
style
Click to edit Master subtitle style
Disclaimer
This presentation is for informational purposes and is not an offer to sell. Any investment involves significant risks, and
past market conditions may not resemble future market conditions.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE
DESCRIBED BELOW. THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT, DO NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK OR REFLECT ACTUAL TRADING BY ANY ACCOUNT UNDER ACTUAL MARKET
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE DO NOT REFLECT THE IMPACT THAT ECONOMIC AND MARKET FACTORS
MAY HAVE HAD ON THE ADVISOR’S INVESTMENT DECISIONS FOR THAT ACCOUNT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS MADE THAT CIMI'S PERFORMANCE WOULD HAVE BEEN THE SAME AS SUCH
SIMULATED HAD CIMI BEEN IN EXISTENCE DURING SUCH TIME. ANOTHER LIMITATION IS THAT
INVESTMENT DECISIONS REFLECTED IN THE SIMULATED RESULTS CANNOT COMPLETELY ACCOUNT
FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK ON THE MANNER IN WHICH AN ACCOUNT WOULD HAVE BEEN
MANAGED. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR
TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RECORD SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED. THE SIMULATED
RESULTS DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ENHANCEMENTS THAT MAY BE MADE TO THE PROPRIETARY
COMPUTER MODELS OVER TIME. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET
IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE
FULLY BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATED PERFORMANCE
RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. ALL RESULTS ARE
GROSS OF ALL TRADING AND MANAGEMENT FEES
Click to edit Master title
style
Click to edit Master subtitle style
About Cambria
SEC Registered RIA, $225m in AUM
CambriaFunds.com, MebaneFaber.com
Click to edit Master title
style
Click to edit Master subtitle style
About Cambria
• First ETF to combine dividends and buybacks
• Ticker NYSE: SYLD
• Launched 5/14/2013, $125 million in assets
• Owns 100 stocks based on shareholder yield
• Additional value, quality, liquidity, and
momentum
Click to edit Master title
style
Click to edit Master subtitle style
Generic Allocations
•Risk Parity
• 15% Stocks
• 70% Bonds
• 15% Real Assets
Click to edit Master title
style
Click to edit Master subtitle style
Performance Race
“Thus timing – and in particular the selection
of the beginning point and end point for
studying a performance record – plays an
incredibly important role in perceptions of
success or failure”
– Howard Marks
Click to edit Master title
style
Click to edit Master subtitle style
Generic Allocations
•Risk Parity
• 15% Stocks, 70% Bonds, 15% Real Assets
• Endowment
• 20% each Stocks, Foreign Stocks, Bonds,
Real Estate, Commodities
•Permanent Portfolio
• 25% each Stocks, Bonds, Cash, Gold
Click to edit Master title
style
Click to edit Master subtitle style
THE END
WEBSITE
www.cambriafunds.com
PHONE
(310) 606-5555
BLOG
www.mebanefaber.com
PROPRIETARY. PERMISSION TO REPRINT OR DISTRIBUTE ANY CONTENT FROM THIS PRESENTATION REQUIRES THE WRITTEN APPROVAL OF S&P DOW JONES INDICES.
Thank you for joining us…
50
Contact Us Want More?
Tim Edwards
Director, Index Strategy
Please click on the widget at the bottom of your screen to
complete the survey. Your feedback is important to us.
Featured Content:
• The Role of Multi-Asset Solutions in Indexing
• Evaluating Alternative Beta Strategies
Please click on the resources widget to visit our site for
financial advisors.
Walter Cegarra
Managing Director
Xiaowei Kang
Senior Director, Research
Mebane Faber
Chief Investment Officer
Save the Date for our Upcoming Webinar:
New Benchmarking Directions for Factor-Based Index Investing Models, December 5, 2pm GMT
Please visit www.spindices.com/events/sp-webinar/ to find out more about upcoming events.