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Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap

OECD Steel Committee, 23rd March 2021

Peter Levi, Industry Sector Lead, Energy Technology Policy Division

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-40

-30

-20

-10

0

2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

GtC

O2/y

r

Focusing on the power sector is not enough to reach climate goals

Clean energy technology progress in the power sector is encouraging, but alone not sufficient to reach energy and

climate goals. About half of all CO2 emissions today are from industry, transport and buildings.

Net-zero emissions

Power generation

Transport

Other industry

Buildings & other

Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends

Heavy industry

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Emissions from heavy industry sectors are ‘hard to abate’

Fossil fuels account for around 85% of the final energy used in heavy industries, which, combined, account for just

under a fifth of total energy system CO2 emissions.

Heavy industry final energy demand and direct CO2 emissions, 2019

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

Mto

e/y

r

Chemicals Steel Cement

Coal

Oil

Gas

Electricity

Imported heat

Bioenergy

Other renewables

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0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

Emissions from heavy industry sectors are ‘hard to abate’

Fossil fuels account for around 85% of the final energy used in heavy industries, which, combined, account for just

under a fifth of total energy system CO2 emissions.

Heavy industry final energy demand and direct CO2 emissions, 2019

GtC

O2/y

r

Mto

e/y

r

Chemicals Steel Cement

Energy-related emissions

Process emissions

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0

10

20

30

40

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400

Capacity (Mt hot metal)

Asia Pacific Eurasia Middle East Africa Europe Central and South America North America

Existing capacity is the starting point for the transition

Around 50% of the existing stock of ironmaking equipment is based in China, with India contributing a further 5%.

The current stock is quite young, with a global average age of 13 to 14 years for blast furnaces and DRI furnaces.

Geographic distribution and average age of key ironmaking assets

China coal blast furnace

Middle East

DRI gas

Japan coal blast furnaceUkraine coal blast furnace

Brazil coal blast furnace

Mexico gas DRIRecently refurbished

European blast furnace

Ye

ars

Typical lifetime

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0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

Baseline SDS

2000 2019 2050

Gt/

yr

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

Sto

ck p

er

ca

pita

(t/

ca

pita

)

Steel continues to play a pivotal role across multiple end-use sectors

Global demand for steel is projected to increase by more than a third through to 2050 in our baseline projection.

In the Sustainable Development Scenario, demand is reduced through material efficiency strategies.

Global end-use steel demand and in-use steel stock by scenario

Buildings

Infrastructure

Vehicles

Mechanical and

electrical equipment

Consumer goods

Pre-consumer scrap

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1 900

2 100

2 300

2 500

2 700

Mt/

yr

There is great potential for a more efficient use of steel

Material efficiency strategies pursued across the supply chain deliver savings of around 20% in global steel

production in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to our baseline projection.

Contributions to changes in global steel demand, 2050

Vehicles Direct useInfrastructure

requirements

Yield

improvementsBuildings

Transport

Power

Improved design and construction

Extended lifetime

Light-weightingReduced use

Product manufacturing

Semi-manufacturing

Direct re-use (without re-melting)

BaselineSustainable

Development

Scenario

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A portfolio of mitigation strategies is required

Technology performance improvements and material efficiency deliver 90% of annual emission reductions in 2030. In

the longer term, innovative technologies such as CCUS-equipped and hydrogen-based production are required.

Cumulative direct CO2 emission reductions in iron and steel,

Sustainable Development Scenario relative to baseline

Material efficiency

Technology performance

Electrification

Hydrogen

Bioenergy

Other fuel shifts

CCUS

2020 - 2030 2020 - 2050

40%

21%

16%

4%

8%

6%5%

22 Gt

43%

51%

2 Gt

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A diverse portfolio of energy carriers and processes

Unabated use of coal drops by more than 50% in the Sustainable Development Scenario by 2050, facilitated by

widespread deployment of innovative technologies.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2019 2050

SDS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2019 2050

SDS

Shares of process technology (left) and final energy carriers (right) in the Sustainable Development Scenario

Innovative BF-BOF w/ CCUS

Commercial SR-BOF

Innovative SR-BOF w/ CCUS

Commercial DRI-EAF

Commercial DRI-EAF w/ CCUS

100% H2 DRI-EAF

Scrap-based EAF

Commercial BF-BOF

Oil

Gas

Gas w/CCUS

Bioenergy

Electricity

Electricity for H2

Imported heat

Coal w/CCUS

Coal2019 2050

SDS

2019 2050

SDS

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0

5

10

15

20

25

Mt/

yr

0

100

200

300

400

MtC

O2/y

r

0

200

400

600

800

TW

h/y

r

Sustainable steel requires a major push for clean energy infrastructure

The transformation for primary steel production in the Sustainable Development Scenario requires infrastructure

developments for CO2 transport and storage, hydrogen production, and renewable electricity generation.

2019 2019 2019

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

Mt/

yr

2019

CO2 captured Hydrogen useElectricity for H2

productionIron production

Fossil DRI H2

with CCUS

Fossil DRI H2

without CCUS

CCUS-

equipped

Traditional

ironmaking

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0

400

800

1 200

1 600

Mt/

yr

0

5

10

15

20

25

Mt/

yr

0

100

200

300

400

MtC

O2/y

r

0

200

400

600

800

TW

h/y

r

Sustainable steel requires a major push for clean energy infrastructure

The transformation for primary steel production in the Sustainable Development Scenario requires infrastructure

developments for CO2 transport and storage, hydrogen production, and renewable electricity generation.

2050 2050 20502050

CO2 captured Hydrogen useElectricity for H2

productionIron production

Electrolytic

H2 primary

reducing

agent

Electrolytic

H2 injected

Fossil DRI H2

with CCUS

Fossil DRI H2

without CCUS

CCUS-

equipped

Traditional

ironmaking

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Governments have a critical role to play in accelerating the transition

Targeted actions for specific technologies and strategies

Steelmaking technologies

Framework fundamentals

Accelerating material

efficiency

Creating a market for near-

zero emission steel

Developing earlier-stage

technologies

Managing existing assets &

near-term investment

Planning and policy for long-term CO2 emission reductions

Driving force: stakeholder collaboration

Governments, steel producers & other actors

Scrap use & steel demand

Necessary enabling conditions

Infrastructure planning &

development

Tracking progress &

improved data

International co-operation &

a level playing field

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