ipsos mori general election briefing: the final week
TRANSCRIPT
Ipsos MORI’s
General Election
Briefing 2015:
The Final Week
BEN PAGE, CEO IPSOS MORI (CHAIR) GIDEON SKINNER, HEAD OF POLITICAL RESEARCH AT IPSOS MORI CLAIRE EMES, CHIEF INNOVATION OFFICER, IPSOS MORI PAUL JOHNSON, DIRECTOR AT THE INSTITUTE FOR FISCAL STUDIES PROFESSOR PHILIP COWLEY, CO-EDITOR OF SEX, LIES & THE BALLOT BOX Q&A
NO CHANGE, SLOW CHANGE, OR REAL CHANGE?
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Watch the share, not the lead!
In almost 200 polls since the start of the year:
• 65% have Cons at 33%+1 (86% at 33%+2)
• 72% have Lab at 34%+1 (89% at 34%+2)
• 80% have LibDems at 8%+1 (96% at 8%+2)
• 70% have Greens at 6%+1 (94% at 6%+2)
• 62%% have UKIP at 14%+1 (79% at 14%+2)
7
Watch the share, not the lead!
What about the c60 since the start of the campaign?
• 68% have Cons at 33%+1 (95% at 33%+2)
• 77% have Lab at 34%+1 (92% at 34%+2)
• 90% have LibDems at 8%+1
• 90% have Greens at 5%+1
• 63%% have UKIP at 14%+1 (78% at 14%+2)
8
Watch the share, not the lead!
What about the 11 different polling series?
• 7 out of 11 average Cons at 33% +1
• 9 out of 11 average Labour at 33% +1
• 11 out of 11 average LibDems at 8% +1
• 10 out of 11 average Greens at 6% +1
• 4 out of 11 average UKIP at 14% +1
9
Although signs of some change?
Wait and see….
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th -28th April 2015, all certain to vote and registered = 781
10 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
All certain to vote: 74%
Conservative lead = +5
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
35%
30%
10%
8%
8%
9%
SLOW CHANGE IN OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH POLITICS
A generational shift in party loyalty…
All data points represent > 200 responses
13 DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY?
Source: British Social Attitudes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pre war
Baby
boomers
Gen X
Gen Y
Fewer voters have decided…
Base: 879 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 10-12 April 2015
14 HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR … PARTY, OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
April
2015
81%
64%
54%
60%
18%
32%
45%
38%
April
2010
April
2005
March
1992
Definitely
decided
May change
mind
Don’t
know
It’s not about Conservative-Labour swing any more
Data shows 2010 recalled past vote and current voting intentions of 3,045 British adults aged 18+ interviewed January-March 2015. Current voting intentions are based only on those who say they are absolutely certain to vote, while those who were unable or refused to say how they voted in 2010 are not shown.
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
And big divisions in attitudes to challenger parties –
someone will be disappointed…
17 AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER HUNG PARLIAMENT AFTER THIS ELECTION. THIS MEANS THAT MORE THAN ONE PARTY COULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE GOVERNMENT, EITHER BECAUSE THEY JOIN A COALITION OR BECAUSE A MINORITY GOVERNMENT RELIES ON THEIR SUPPORT.
THINKING OF PARTIES OTHER THAN THE LABOUR AND THE CONSERVATIVES, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING WOULD YOU LEAST LIKE TO SEE HAVING INFLUENCE OVER THE GOVERNMENT?
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015. 280 Conservative, 296 Labour supporters Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
4%
63%
3%
1%
9%
11%
2%
21%
7%
1%
60%
5%
CONSERVATIVE
SUPPORTERS
LABOUR
SUPPORTERS
The issues distribution is closer to 2005 than 2010 –
range of issues important to many
18 THE IPSOS MORI/ECONOMIST ISSUES INDEX
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Ipsos MORI Issues Index
44
33
30
29
24
13
12
9
8
8
NHS
Education
Defence/Foreign
affairs/Terrorism
Crime/Law and
Order
Race relations/
Immigration
Economy
Housing
Pensions/social
security/benefits
Poverty
Unemployment
55
29
25
24
24
21
11
11
8
7
Economy
Crime/Law and Order
NHS
Unemployment
Race relations/
Immigration
Defence/Foreign
affairs/Terrorism
Inflation/Prices
Education/schools
Morality/individual behaviour
Drug abuse
47
36
36
22
18
15
13
13
12
11
NHS
Immigration/
Immigrants
Unemployment
Education/Schools
Economy
Low pay/minimum
wages/fair pay
Defence/Foreign
affairs/Terrorism
Housing
Poverty/inequality
Pensions/Social
security/Benefits
FIVE CHALLENGES
1) The ‘biased’ system
• In 2005, Tony Blair won 36% of the vote and an overall majority of 64 seats
• In 2010, David Cameron won 37% of the vote and was 20 seats short of a
majority
• Labour can win an overall majority with a lead of c3.5 to 5.5 percentage
points, the Conservatives need a c8.5- to 10 point lead
AND
• Only two governments since 1900 have increased their vote share after
more than two years in office (1951 and 1955)
21
2) Record levels of macro-optimism – but not felt in
people’s pockets
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015
23 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
IN 2015, DO YOU THINK THAT EACH OF THE FOLLOWING WILL RISE, FALL, OR STAY ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL? YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Economic optimism - April 2015
IMPROVE 42%
STAY THE SAME 27%
GET WORSE 21%
DON’T KNOW 11%
EOI = +21
RISE 21%
STAY THE SAME 61%
FALL 17%
DON’T KNOW 2%
NET = +4
Standard of living over next 12
months – December 2014
41%
12% 7% 1%
22%
9%
8%
3) The rise (if slight fall) of UKIP
24 SOURCE OF UKIP’S VOTE
Base: 251 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – April 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2010 VOTING BEHAVIOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIBERAL DEMOCRAT
GREEN
UKIP
DID NOT VOTE/TOO YOUNG
DON’T KNOW
5) And still much more disliked than Labour
Base: 1,025 British adults aged 18+, 8-11 March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF … LEADER AND … PARTY? 25
% dislike the party
Party image as a perceptual map
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12-15 April 2015
Split sample for LibDems (507) and UKIP (493)
29 I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Different to the other parties
Divided
Extreme
Fit to govern
Has a good team of leaders
Keeps its promises
Looks after the interests of people
like me
Out of date
Understands the problems facing
Britain Will promise
anything to win votes
CON
LAB
LIB DEM
UKIP
36%
23%
6% 3%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan
00
Ap
r 00
Jul 00
Oct
00
Jan
01
Ap
r 01
Jul 01
Oct
01
Jan
02
Ap
r 02
Jul 02
Oct
02
Jan
03
Ap
r 03
Jul 03
Oct
03
Jan
04
Ap
r 04
Jul 04
Oct
04
Jan
05
Ap
r 05
Jul 05
Oct
05
Jan
06
Ap
r 06
Jul 06
Oct
06
Jan
07
Ap
r 07
Jul 07
Oct
07
Jan
08
Ap
r 08
Jul 08
Oct
08
Jan
09
Ap
r 09
Jul 09
Oct
09
Jan
10
Ap
r 10
Jul 10
Oct
10
Jan
11
Ap
r 11
Jul 11
Oct
11
Jan
12
Ap
r 12
Jul 12
Oct
12
Jan
13
Ap
r 13
Jul 13
Oct
13
Jan
14
Ap
r 14
Jul 14
Oct
14
Jan
15
Ap
r 15
5) Still behind on public services – notably the NHS
30 WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON HEALTHCARE THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
FOUR CHALLENGES
1) Incumbency for new governments
Opposition parties rarely elected with an overall
majority after single parliament out of office
Only 1895,1924, 1931
In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party
had a narrow poll lead one year out, THE OTHER
PARTY WON
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jun
10
Dec 1
0
Jun
11
Dec 1
1
Jun
12
Dec 1
2
Jun
13
Dec 1
3
Jun
14
Dec 1
4
Already seeing a slow change?
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through February 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
36 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2013
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
38
34 34
2015
31
2) Ed trails on leader ratings
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
37 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01)
Ne
t sa
tisfa
ctio
n
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Cameron has owned key ‘PM’ qualities for some time
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12-15 April 2015
Split sample for Nick Clegg (507) and Nigel Farage (493)
38 I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Capable leader
Good in a crisis
Has a clear vision for Britain
Has got a lot of personality
Has sound judgement
Looks after some sections of society more than others
More style than substance
Out of touch with ordinary people
Understands the problems facing
Britain
CAMERON
MILIBAND
FARAGE
CLEGG
23%
41%
4% 3%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan
00
Ap
r 00
Jul 00
Oct
00
Jan
01
Ap
r 01
Jul 01
Oct
01
Jan
02
Ap
r 02
Jul 02
Oct
02
Jan
03
Ap
r 03
Jul 03
Oct
03
Jan
04
Ap
r 04
Jul 04
Oct
04
Jan
05
Ap
r 05
Jul 05
Oct
05
Jan
06
Ap
r 06
Jul 06
Oct
06
Jan
07
Ap
r 07
Jul 07
Oct
07
Jan
08
Ap
r 08
Jul 08
Oct
08
Jan
09
Ap
r 09
Jul 09
Oct
09
Jan
10
Ap
r 10
Jul 10
Oct
10
Jan
11
Ap
r 11
Jul 11
Oct
11
Jan
12
Ap
r 12
Jul 12
Oct
12
Jan
13
Ap
r 13
Jul 13
Oct
13
Jan
14
Ap
r 14
Jul 14
Oct
14
Jan
15
Ap
r 15
3) Conservatives’ lead on the “economy stupid”…
40 WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON MANAGING THE ECONOMY THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
4) Scotland!
Base: All giving a voting intention = 948; all certain to vote = 785. Data collected among 1,071 Scottish
adults 18+, 22nd - 27th April 2015
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
54%
20%
17%
6% 1%
3%
All giving a voting intention Certain to vote
SNP lead +34 SNP lead +34
SNP
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LIB DEM
GREEN
OTHER
54%
20%
17%
5% 1% 2%
Although the signs were there before indyref….
46%
43%
40% 42% 39%
34%
32%
29%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2010 2011
La
bo
ur
sh
are
of
Vo
te
Date of Election
UK GENERAL ELECTION HOLYROOD ELECTION
SNP SCOTTISH LABOUR SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE SCOTTISH LIB DEMS
THEY ARE MY PREFERRED
PARTY 45%
THEY ARE MY PREFERRED
PARTY
14% THEY ARE MY PREFERRED
PARTY 14%
THEY ARE MY
PREFERRED PARTY 5%
NOT PREFERRED PARTY
BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY
HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING
IN MY CONSTITUENCY
17%
NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT
MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A
CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY
CONSTITUENCY
30%
NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT
MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A
CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY
CONSTITUENCY
15%
NOT PREFERRED PARTY
BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY
HAD A CHANCE OF
WINNING IN MY
CONSTITUENCY
25%
I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER
VOTING FOR THEM 35%
I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER
VOTING FOR THEM 52%
I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER
VOTING FOR THEM 67%
I WOULD NEVER
CONSIDER VOTING FOR
THEM
67%
DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4%
Although still time to change – and tactical voting
could help Labour
Base: 1,071 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd – 27th April 2015.
THINKING ABOUT EACH OF THE MAIN PARTIES STANDING AT THE FORTHCOMING GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH OF THE
FOLLOWING STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
1. KEY THEMES OF THIS ELECTION SET SOME
TIME AGO
2. POLARISATION ON ISSUES, LEADER AND
PARTY IMAGE MAKE IT HARDER FOR LABOUR
OR CONSERVATIVES TO BREAK AWAY
3. VOTE SHARE HAS BARELY CHANGED OVER
THE CAMPAIGN
4. BUT WITH ONE WEEK TO GO WILL THAT LAST?
Thank you [email protected] @GIDEONSKINNER
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS.?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/King’s College London Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 8th -10th February 2015
49
Social media platforms
such as Facebook and
Twitter…
23%
40%
27%
31%
23%
14%
17%
7%
10%
7%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree
…are giving a voice to
people who would not
normally take part in
political debate
…are making political
debate more superficial
than it used to be
Social Media is increasing access but reducing quality
of political debate
Social Media expected to play a part in voters’
decision making – especially the young
WHICH OF THESE ITEMS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK WILL INFLUENCE YOUR VOTE?
Base: 1,142, GB adults 18+, 6th – 16th February 2015
50
40
20
16
13
12
8
4
3
7
30
The TV debates
Newspapers
Party election broadcasts
Something you read on social media
Political leaflets
Opinion polls
Posters
Telephone calls from parties
Other
None of these
Second most
important among
under 35s
Source: Ipsos MORI/King’s College London
THE EVOLVED ‘WORM’
52
The return of the leader debate ‘worm’
Twitter reaction to the ‘mass debate’- the rise of
Sturgeon
TWITTER ‘WORM’ – REAL TIME ANALYSIS OF REACTION TO FIRST LEADER DEBATE 53
Analysis conducted through the Wisdom of the Crowd project., in partnership with Demos, University of Sussex and CASM LLP and sponsored by Innovate UK
Twittersphere empty chaired Cameron in challenger
debate
TWITTER ‘WORM’ – REAL TIME ANALYSIS OF REACTION TO SECOND LEADER DEBATE 54
Analysis conducted through the Wisdom of the Crowd project., in partnership with Demos, University of Sussex and CASM LLP and sponsored by Innovate UK
ELECTION UNCUT
Election Uncut…
7426 posts
across 239 forum topics
LONGITUDINAL ELECTION COMMUNITY 56
c.2000
members from
across the UK
Over 6500 survey
responses to date
DON’T KNOW MAY CHANGE MIND DEFINITELY DECIDED
Tracking metrics such as when people make up their
minds
58
53
32
43 66
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
We
ek 1
We
ek 2
We
ek 3
We
ek 4
We
ek 5
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR YOUR PARTY, OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU
MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut community Base of British online community members18-75 surveyed online naming a party: Week 1 – 1405, Week 2 – 1172, Week 3 – 1044,
Week 4 – 1019, Week 5 – 1077
We also gain detailed qualitative feedback… PLEASE THINK OF THE THREE WORDS OR PHRASES THAT BEST DESCRIBE HOW YOU FEEL ABOUT THE UPCOMING ELECTION CAMPAIGN? 59
768 adults aged 18-75, from BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut Community
Interim survey data, launched 27/03/15, based on initial completes up to 12 noon 29/03/15
Removed common English words, otherwise image shows unedited verbatims. Data is qualitative and unweighted.
And can delve into particular issues…
Base: 1077 online community members aged 18-75, 24th – 28th April 2015
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?
Source: BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut community
53%
23%
3% 10%
56%
4%
AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW
9%
72%
3%
I trust politicians to follow through
on the promises they have made
so far in this campaign if they are
in Government after the Election
The promises being made by
politicians are unrealistic
Politicians are explaining their
policies clearly enough to allow
voters to make up their minds
60
…to unpick the issues beneath the headline stats
5 THINGS WE LEARNT ABOUT TRUST IN POLITICIANS… 61
1 Levels of trust in politicians is generally low.
Communication is key to appearing trustworthy…
4
5
…however, members said there is a difference between
appearing trustworthy and actually being trustworthy.
Past actions are not easily forgotten.
Trustworthy politicians make only realistic promises, and
stick to them.
2
3
And even generate some ‘deep’ quotes…
A trustworthy politician is…
…a Loch Ness monster: a few
people claim to have seen one, but
no one can prove it.
...a dead politician (and some of
those may be faking it to claim
funeral expenses)
COMPLETE THE SENTENCE… 62
Professor Philip Cowley,
Professor of Parliamentary Government
at Nottingham University @philipjcowley
Thank you Q&A