simon atkinson, ipsos mori: one year from the election

Version 1 | Internal Use© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public

Paste co-brand logo

here

One Year from the Election….

Simon Atkinson, Assistant Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI 27/05/2014

@SimonMAtkinson

2The most unpredictable election in living memory?

What are the precedents?

– The last time a government increased its vote share after more than two years in office - 1955

– (It has only happened twice since 1900)

– The last time an opposition party was elected with an overall majority after just a single parliament out of office – 1931

– Successive hung parliaments – only once (1910) since 1832

Marginal seats

General election 2010 Overall majority 326 seats

Marginal seats

General election 2010

Series1 306

258

57

Marginal seats

General election 2010

Series1 306

258

0

57

Marginal seats

To win in 2015

Series1 306

258

57

Conservatives need 20 gains

Labour need 68 gains

Marginal seats

To win in 2015

Series1 306

258

57

Conservatives need 1.9%

swing

Labour need 5.0% swing

8“The war of the weak”

Joe Murphy, May 2014


In 1993 83% said they identified with one of the three main parties, in 2014 it is 67%


Jun-

97

Dec

-97

Jun-

98

Dec

-98

Jun-

99

Dec

-99

Jun-

00

Dec

-00

Jun-

01

Dec

-01

Jun-

02

Dec

-02

Jun-

03

Dec

-03

Jun-

04

Dec

-04

Jun-

05

Dec

-05

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46-56

-48

+23

Economic Optimism reaches record levelsIn

dex

(g

et b

ette

r m

inu

s g

et w

ors

e)

-64

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

+35


But few think it has benefited them

As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy has grown by about 1.5% compared to the same time last year. What impact, if any, do you feel this growth in the economy has had on you and your family’s standard of living so far?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th- 11th November 2013

Don’t know

3%

11%

36%

48%

1% A fair amount

Not very much

A great deal

None at all

14%

84%


No

v-03

Fe

b-0

4M

ay-0

4A

ug

-04

No

v-04

Fe

b-0

5M

ay-0

5A

ug

-05

No

v-05

Fe

b-0

6M

ay-0

6A

ug

-06

No

v-06

Fe

b-0

7M

ay-0

7A

ug

-07

No

v-07

Fe

b-0

8M

ay-0

8A

ug

-08

No

v-08

Fe

b-0

9M

ay-0

9A

ug

-09

No

v-09

Fe

b-1

0M

ay-1

0A

ug

-10

No

v-10

Fe

b-1

1M

ay-1

1A

ug

-11

No

v-11

Fe

b-1

2M

ay-1

2A

ug

-12

No

v-12

Fe

b-1

3M

ay-1

3A

ug

-13

No

v-13

Fe

b-1

4M

ay-1

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Neither of the big two parties are doing very well (?)

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

34%

9%

31%

11%

Labour 2012 average: 41%

Labour 2014 average: 37%


31% satisfied, 54% dissatisfied


UKIP touch a nerve

Now thinking about UKIP, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

UKIP is highlighting important issues

which other parties aren't taking seriously

enough

UKIP is a party that is out of touch with the

modern world

26%

27%

25%

16%

9%

10%

15%

24%

19%

16%

6%

7%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

40%

34%

43%

51%

Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014

Including 52% of Conservatives and 44% of Labour voters


Version 1 | Public

Paste co-brand logo

here

7 May 2015…

Simon Atkinson, Assistant Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

27/05/2014@SimonMAtkinson

simon atkinson, ipsos mori: one year from the election

News & Politics