iowa poll: gop answers
DESCRIPTION
Poll answers from Republican caucusgoers.TRANSCRIPT
Study #1835
The Des Moines Register/ Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll
Selzer & Company Study #2118402 Republican likely caucusgoersMay 25-29, 2015Compared to 437 Democratic likely caucusgoers4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, andMargin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicanscongressional district to conform to active voters Margin of error 4.7 percentage points for Democratsin the Iowa voter registration list
About the Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, is based on telephone interviews with 402 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 437 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.
Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.
Poll Questions
BASED ON REPUBLICAN CAUCUSGOERS
Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?
100YesContinue
-NoTerminate
-Not sure
How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend, probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus?
-Definitely attend Democratic caucusContinue
-Probably attend Democratic caucus
36Definitely attend Republican caucus
64Probably attend Republican caucus
-Probably not attend a caucusTerminate
-Dont know which caucus will attend
-Not sure
Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
68Attended Republican caucus in the past
4Attended Democratic caucus in the past
11Attended both
17First caucus
1Not sure
Were interested in what you want candidates to spend time talking about. For each of the following issues, please tell me if this is something you want candidates to spend a lot of time talking about or not. Just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)
YesNoNot Sure
A.Terrorist groups like ISIS, sometimes called the Islamic State9091
B.International trade8119-
C.Immigration8515-
D.Income inequality36621
E.The cost of college5050-
F.Abortion4851-
G.The budget deficit946-
H.The nations infrastructure78221
I.Job creation86141
J.Their religious beliefs42581
K.Climate change1882-
L.National defense937-
M.The Iraq war6337-
N.Breaking gridlock in D.C.68301
O.Taxes919-
P.Energy7624-
Q.Same-sex marriage 38601
R.Race relations 42571
S.Criminal justice reform56431
T.Guns 57421
Now, Im going to mention some people talked about as possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president.For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.)
FavUnfVeryFavorableMostlyFavorableMostlyUnfavorableVeryUnfavorableNotSure
A.Jeb Bush, former governor of FloridaMay-1543451132271813
Jan-1546431729251811
Oct-14502894119922
B.Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from MarylandMay-155615243210529
Jan-15501228229338
Oct-1441824174451
C.Chris Christie, governor of New JerseyMay-1528*58621391914
Jan-153654729322210
Oct-143945831291616
D.Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from TexasMay-155920203913721
Jan-155821223614721
Oct-145218203211730
E.Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and candidate for the U.S. Senate in CaliforniaMay-1541*19*132712840
Jan-15151941113666
F.Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South CarolinaMay-1522*38419231540
G.Mike Huckabee, former governor of ArkansasMay-15613021402199
Jan-15662828382176
Oct-145930233623711
H.Bobby Jindal, governor of LouisianaMay-154319152815438
Jan-153920102915541
Oct-144114122911345
I.John Kasich, governor of OhioMay-152516*71811459
Jan-15221471510464
Oct-141773145276
J.George Pataki, former governor of New YorkMay-15103519221355
K.Rand Paul, U.S. senator from KentuckyMay-1555341639241011
Jan-156425253918711
Oct-145924213818617
L.Rick Perry, former governor of TexasMay-155929144521813
Jan-156426204420610
Oct-146423234117613
M.Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from FloridaMay-156017204012523
Jan-155720164115523
Oct-145416144012430
N.Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from PennsylvaniaMay-155628183819916
Jan-155730164122813
Oct-1452301438201018
O.Donald Trump, businessman and television personalityMay-152763*720313310
Jan-15266842236326
P.Scott Walker, governor of WisconsinMay-15661131355623
Jan-15601232286628
Oct-14491020297341
*We are most confident that the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
FirstSecondCombined
Jeb Bush9716
Ben Carson10515
Chris Christie448
Ted Cruz5813
Carly Fiorina235
Lindsey Graham112*
Mike Huckabee9817*
Bobby Jindal145
John Kasich213
George Pataki-11
Rand Paul10515
Rick Perry369
Marco Rubio61218
Rick Santorum6612
Donald Trump426
Scott Walker171027
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent says the word uncommitted.)42
Not sure75
No first choicen/a11
*Combined does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
See next page for tracking.
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
FirstSecondCombined
Jeb BushMay-159716
Jan-158715
Oct-144812
Ben CarsonMay-1510515
Jan-1591019
Oct-1411718
Chris ChristieMay-15448
Jan-15437
Oct-146511
Ted CruzMay-155813
Jan-155611
Oct-147613
Carly FiorinaMay-15235
Jan-15112
Lindsey GrahamMay-15112*
Mike HuckabeeMay-159817*
Jan-1510717
Oct-149817
Bobby JindalMay-15145
Jan-15224
Oct-14145
John KasichMay-15213
Jan-15112
Oct-141-1
George PatakiMay-15-11
Rand PaulMay-1510515
Jan-1514923
Oct-1410818
Rick PerryMay-15369
Jan-15358
Oct-147613
Marco RubioMay-1561218
Jan-153811
Oct-14235
Rick SantorumMay-156612
Jan-154610
Oct-14358
Donald TrumpMay-15426
Jan-15112
Scott WalkerMay-15171027
Jan-15151025
Oct-14459
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent says the word uncommitted.)May-1542
Jan-1521
Oct-141-
Not sureMay-1575
Jan-1556
Oct-14
No first choiceMay-15n/a11
Jan-15n/a7
Oct-14n/a10
*Combined does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered in as first or second in horserace.] Im going to mention the candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice in horserace, code AC=4 and do not ask.)
EverNeverNot sure1st or 2nd choice in horserace
A.Jeb Bush38351016
B.Ben Carson47182015
C.Chris Christie3445138
D.Ted Cruz49211813
E.Carly Fiorina3827305
F.Lindsey Graham2943253
G.Mike Huckabee5124916
H.Bobby Jindal4525255
I.John Kasich2928403
J.George Pataki2041381
K.Rand Paul45301015
L.Rick Perry5427109
M.Marco Rubio49181518
N.Rick Santorum51261112
O.Donald Trump285886
P.Scott Walker41151727
For each of the following descriptions of Carly Fiorina, please tell me if this is something that is important to you as you decide whether to support her or not. Just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)
ImportantNot importantNot Sure
A.She has been the CEO of a Fortune 500 company, Hewlett-Packard65332
B.She is a Washington outsider59383
C.As CEO, she outsourced American jobs overseas48493
D.She is the only woman in the Republican field26713
E.She has never held elected office39592
F.She has taken on Hillary Clinton aggressively72262
G.As CEO, she laid off 30,000 employees 44524
H.She was fired by Hewlett-Packard 27703
Im going to mention issue positions some Republican candidates hold. For each, please tell me if you think this position is about right or goes too far. (Rotate list.)
About rightGoes too farNot Sure
A.The border with Mexico must be 100% secure before any legislation on immigration reform can be considered69293
B.Life begins at conception, therefore fetuses have all the same rights as persons74224
C.The U.S. must have the indisputably strongest military, therefore the Pentagon budget should be increased73243
D.Subsidies are a waste of government moneyincluding past subsidies for ethanol and wind energy45469
E.The Environmental Protection Agency infringes on the rights of landowners, therefore it should be shut down 44515
F.Marriage should be only between one man and one woman, therefore marriage equality laws should be struck down60355
G.Religious freedom is so important, it takes precedence over any law that is seen as interfering with it57368
H.Clergy should be free to take political positions from the pulpit without risking the tax-exempt status of the church61336
I.Whether or not climate change is real, the U.S. should not spend money foolishly trying to reduce greenhouse gases66313
J.Obamacare should be repealed 79192
K.The Common Core puts too much control of education in the hands of the federal government; it should be rejected74206
L.Protecting Americans from terrorism is more important than protecting Americans privacy 49429
If Jeb Bush were to become president, a close adviser is likely to be his brother George W. Bush. If that proved true, do you think it would be mostly good for his presidency or mostly bad for his presidency?
57Mostly good
33Mostly bad
2No difference (VOL)
8Not sure
Critics say President Obama was a first-term senator with no executive experience before he took office, and that explains many of the problems he has faced. Im going to mention Republican candidates who are first-term senators who have no executive experience. For each, tell me if that makes you less likely to support any of them in the nominating race or if it makes no difference in your support. (Rotate list.)
Less likely to supportNo differenceNot sure
A.Ted Cruz19765
B.Rand Paul22725
C.Marco Rubio16795