alabama statewide gop runoff flash poll presentation - 07/10/14

Alabama Statewide Flash Poll Conducted Monday, July 7 & Tuesday, July 8

N = 314,492 / n = 821 MoE = +/- 3.42% at 95% Confidence Interval

CLIENT: None; For Media Release

Republican Primary Runoff Election – July 15, 2014

PRIMARY RESULTS Head-to-Head (Governor)

05/30 Cygnal Poll 06/03 Results MoE +/- 2.81 %

Bentley – 80.7% George – 5.1% Starkey – 5.3% Undecided – 8.9%

Bentley – 89.3% George – 5.8% Starkey – 4.9%

Difference

Bentley – 8.6% George – 0.7% Starkey – -0.4%

NOTE: This race was not much of a surprise, but it was impressive to be able to tag challengers George and Starkey within one point. As is usually seen in races, especially blowout ones, the undecideds break toward the most well-known, well-liked candidate. This occurred in the governors race. We projected turnout at 414,102 and it ended up being 433,333.

PRIMARY RESULTS Head-to-Head (Lt. Governor)


Ivey – 53.5% Cooke – 29.8% Undecided – 16.9% * Margin – 23.5%

Ivey – 61.7% Cooke – 38.3% * Margin – 23.4%

Difference Ivey – 8.4% Cooke – 8.5% * Margin – -0.1%

NOTE: It was interesting to see undecided voters spilt evenly between Ivey and Cooke. We polled this race at a 23.5% margin and were only 0.1% off of the final results. We projected turnout at 414,102 and it ended up being 433,333. * MARGIN = the spread between the top two candidates.

PRIMARY RESULTS Head-to-Head (Secretary of State)


McKinney – 20.6% Merrill – 19.3% Perdue – 17.1% Undecided – 43.0% * Margin – 1.3%

McKinney – 38.1% Merrill – 39.9% Perdue – 22.0% * Margin – 1.7%

Difference

McKinney – 17.5% Merrill – 20.6% Perdue – 4.9% * Margin – -3.0%

NOTE: Undecided voters have to go somewhere, which explains the difference between the poll numbers and the 06/03 results. What’s important to note is the accuracy of the projected margin, especially in a race with high undecided voters several days out. We projected turnout at 414,102 and it ended up being 433,333. * MARGIN = the spread between the top two candidates.

PRIMARY RESULTS Head-to-Head (PSC Place 2)


Beeker – 22.7% Dunn – 13.4% Barbee – 11.6% Brown – 7.2% Undecided – 45.2% * Margin – 9.3%

Beeker – 39.0% Dunn – 32.5% Barbee – 15.9% Brown – 12.6% * Margin – 6.5%

Difference

Beeker – 16.3% Dunn – 19.1% Barbee – 4.3% Brown – 5.4% * Margin – -2.8%

NOTE: As with the Secretary of State race, this also had very high undecideds just days out from the election. Our polled margin between Beeker and Dunn ended up being within the margin of error of the final results. We projected turnout at 414,102 and it ended up being 433,333. * MARGIN = the spread between the top two candidates.

PRIMARY RESULTS Head-to-Head (Auditor)


Zeigler – 23.7% Peterson – 16.5% Thompson – 9.8% Sealy – 5.3% Undecided – 44.7% * Margin – 7.2%

Zeigler – 47.1% Peterson – 24.3% Thompson – 18.6% Sealy – 10.0% * Margin – 22.8%

Difference Zeigler – 23.4% Peterson – 7.8% Thompson – 8.8% Sealy – 4.7% * Margin – 15.6%

NOTE: Out of all the races polled on 05/30, this one was the furthest off. However, we did get the candidate order correct. Zeigler’s residual name ID along with Peterson’s negatives and the lack of familiarity of the other two candidates led a huge number of undecided voters to vote for Zeigler. We projected turnout at 414,102 and it ended up being 433,333. * MARGIN = the spread between the top two candidates.

RUNOFF POLLING Secretary of State

McKinney, 23.0%

Merrill, 24.2%

Undec, 52.8%

MARGIN DIFFERENCE: 1.4%

RUNOFF POLLING SoS Crosstabs

McKinney Merrill Undec % of AL

BHM 18.6 30.7 50.7 35.9

HSV 16.5 23.1 60.4 23.5

MGM 54.1 19.0 26.8 14.2

MOB 15.6 16.2 68.2 13.9

OTHER 20.5 22.1 57.3 12.5

Media Markets


18-34 39.1 17.7 43.1 3.2

35-49 22.1 25.6 52.2 14.1

50-64 23.4 22.0 52.2 33.3

65+ 21.9 25.6 52.5 49.4

Age Ranges*

* Based on historical trends, the lower the turnout, the older the participant base.


Highest 25.3 24.7 49.9 35.9

High 24.1 24.9 50.9 23.5

Medium 19.9 23.3 56.9 14.2

Lowest 11.0 19.3 69.7 13.9

Primary Voting Propensity

RUNOFF POLLING PSC Place 2

Beeker, 30.8%

Dunn, 22.4%

Undec, 46.8%


RUNOFF POLLING PSC#2 Crosstabs

Beeker Dunn Undec % of AL

BHM 41.1 21.1 37.8 35.9

HSV 27.3 22.8 49.9 23.5

MGM 25.6 33.0 41.4 14.2

MOB 19.9 14.7 65.3 13.9

OTHER 25.9 21.8 52.3 12.5

Media Markets


18-34 22.8 32.3 44.9 3.2

35-49 28.1 21.4 50.4 14.1

50-64 29.9 24.9 45.2 33.3

65+ 32.7 20.4 46.9 49.4

Age Ranges*



Highest 33.1 20.4 46.5 35.9

High 32.3 24.4 43.3 23.5

Medium 26.0 22.9 51.0 14.2

Lowest 23.4 23.4 53.2 13.9


RUNOFF POLLING Auditor

Zeigler, 30.5%

Peterson, 21.5%

Undec, 48.0%


RUNOFF POLLING Auditor Crosstabs

Zeigler Peterson Undec % of AL

BHM 35.6 22.7 41.7 35.9

HSV 25.3 19.1 55.6 23.5

MGM 33.6 21.9 44.5 14.2

MOB 26.1 16.2 57.7 13.9

OTHER 27.5 27.7 44.8 12.5

Media Markets


18-34 21.9 34.3 43.8 3.2

35-49 27.2 22.3 50.5 14.1

50-64 26.5 26.5 47.0 33.3

65+ 34.8 17.1 48.2 49.4

Age Ranges*



Highest 34.3 19.2 46.5 35.9

High 30.7 22.1 47.2 23.5

Medium 24.2 23.5 52.3 14.2

Lowest 25.5 27.0 47.5 13.9


RUNOFF POLLING 2016 Presidential Primary

J. Bush, 19.8%

Carson, 12.6%

Christie, 8.8%

Cruz, 5.6% Jindal, 3.9% Paul, 10.5%

Perry, 7.2%

Santorum, 5.3%

Walker, 3.6%

Undec, 22.6%

16.3%

40.1%

31.5%

12.1%

All

Most

Some

None

AGREEMENT WITH Tea Party Views

Demographic Info

Political Ideology Very Conservative – 42.8% Somewhat Conservative – 30.5% Independent – 21.7% Somewhat Liberal – 3.5% Very Liberal – 1.6%

Age Range 18 to 34 – 3.1% 35 to 49 – 14.1% 50 to 64 – 33.2% 65+ – 49.5%

Gender Male – 48.7% Female – 51.3%

Media Markets

BHM – 32.9% HSV– 23.5% MGM– 14.2% MOB – 13.9% OTHER – 12.5%

Primary Propensity Zones Highest – 41.7% High – 31.7% Medium – 20.5% Low – 6.0%

For questions or comments related to this flash poll, please contact:

Brent Buchanan, Managing Partner [email protected]

Cory Brown, Data Strategist [email protected]

www.cygn.al

alabama statewide gop runoff flash poll presentation - 07/10/14

Documents