Risk Managing Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean Region: cooperative opportunities for maritime forces

Commodore Lee Cordner Rtd.

Indo-Pacific Governance Research Centre (IPGRC), University of Adelaide, AustraliaVisiting International Fellow

Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India

Presentation Outline

•Risk, Vulnerability & Maritime Security

•IOR risk context and risk assessment

•Recommendations

•maritime security built upon sharedperspectives of risks &vulnerabilities• develop shared understandings of threatsto common objectives•identify shared opportunities formitigating risks & reducing vulnerabilities

RISK

•World Risk Society, Ulrich Beck

•ISO 31000:2009 Risk management –Principles and guidelines

Risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives

IOR virtual organization – open, expansive & inclusive maritime system, a composite oceanic & littoral region in which regional and extra-regional actors have common objectives, interests & shared risks & vulnerabilities

3 phases of risk management:1. Establishing the context2. Risk assessment3. Risk Treatment

Vulnerability

the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to risks posing unquantifiable uncertainty combined with insufficient capacities to prevent, respond or adapt

Maritime Securitya comprehensive concept that derives from the systemic nature of the maritime domain presenting multiple and inter-related requirements for cooperative security by state and non-state actors; it addresses traditional and non-traditional security challengesinvolves coordinating collective and cooperative risk mitigation and vulnerability reduction efforts in order to protect and promote national, regional and global vital interests, objectives and core values including those relating to state sovereignty, freedom of navigation, economic development, environment and ocean resources, human and social development, and political stability

IOR maritime security risk context

•law of the sea •economy, trade & globalization •energy •environment & ocean resources •social cohesion & development •potential for interstate conflict •regional security architecture

Law of the Sea•maritime Sovereignty•freedom of Navigation•conservation & protection of the marine environment & resources

Economy, Trade & Globalization•emerging IOR prominence•uneven economic development•uneven impact of globalization

Energy•crucial to regional & global energy security•IOR SLOCs•Geopolitics of world energy changing

Environment & Ocean Resources•greatest maritime security-related IOR challenge in medium to longer term•coastal zones – sea level rise & extreme weather•natural disasters•vulnerability

Social Cohesion & Development•diversity, complexity &conflict•majority of the world’s refugees•migration generates economic, social, political &security challenges•fertile environment for law & order issues

Potential for Interstate Conflict• China, India, US – seapower•WMD•Limited regional maritime capabilities•External states – stability & intervention

Regional Security Architecture•security architecture lacking•IORA – no security:

•maritime safety & security•fisheries management•disaster risk management•academic, S & T

•IONS•No Track 2 or 1.5

IOR Strategic Objectives for Maritime Security1. Attain & sustain maritime territorial sovereignty2. Assure freedom of navigation in accordance with UNCLOS3. Implement effective conservation, protection &management of

the marine environment in areas within national jurisdiction & high seas

4. Address the uneven effects of globalization across the IOR system

5. Promote economic development & enhance intra & extra-regional maritime trade

6. Ensure integrity of energy (oil, gas & coal) maritime supply routes throughout the IOR

7. Assert effective, sustainable control over fish & other resources within areas of national jurisdiction & high seas

8. Implement effective measures to address impacts of climate change

IOR Strategic Objectives for Maritime Security

9. Implement effective management of coastal zone around IOR littoral

10. Develop cooperative natural disaster response & recovery mechanisms

11. Promote social tolerance, cohesion & stability founded upon economic & societal development & integration

12. Impose law & order consistent with international regimes and norms

13. Establish nuclear weapons & other WMD free zone; prevent WMD proliferation; remove nuclear weapons & WMD; prevent extra-regional states & other actors bringing WMD into the IOR

14. Encourage political order in IOR states & promote regional stability

15. Develop regional maritime security dialogue & cooperation architectures in the IOR

IOR Maritime Security Risks1. Transgressions of sovereignty in the territorial sea

2. Transgressions of sovereignty in the EEZ3. States asserting unreasonable maritime sovereignty claims4. State closures of international straits, archipelagic sea

lanes &/or areas within national jurisdiction5. State restrictions on freedom of navigation in international

straits, archipelagic sea lanes &/or areas within national jurisdiction

6. Non-state actors impinging upon freedom of navigation (piracy, maritime terrorism)

7. Impacts of climate change on the marine environment8. Illegal exploitation of marine living resources, in areas of

national jurisdiction & high seas9. Marine pollution & dumping

IOR Maritime Security Risks10. Inadequate regulation & control of the marine environment

11. Sea-level rise & increasing intensity & frequency of extreme weather events in IOR coastal zones & islands

12. Law & order at sea transgressions: crime, piracy, robbery, smuggling, trafficking, illegal immigration, IUU fishing

13. Disruption of energy cargoes at sea14. Offshore oil & gas safety & security incidents15. Transportation & deployment of WMD at sea16. Local, state on state, conflict spilling into the maritime

domain17. Maritime intervention (power projection, asserting sea

control) by major powers in the IOR18. Safety at sea19. Lack of IOR architecture & entities to facilitate regional

maritime security dialogue & cooperation

Strategic

Objective

MS

Risk

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Overall Risk

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15 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

LOS

RA

RA

Concluding Summary

•IOR – sea vital common medium•Global strategic & economic balance to IOR•Climate change greatest impact medium to long term – natural disasters•Much uncertainty = risk•Many vulnerabilities•Lack of maritime security capabilities•Lack of cooperative mechanisms•Opportunity for cooperative security

Recommendations1. Conduct regional strategic risk assessment,

maritime security focus, enhanced maritime security cooperation: IONS initiative

2. Encourage IORA to include climate change3. Encourage expansion of IORA membership4. IONS encourage/support creation of Track

2/1.5 dialogue entity - IORG5. Support creation of separate Track 1 IOR

security dialogue entity