investor presentation - february 2018board and management , 36.1% aus&nz institutions, 18.2% us...
TRANSCRIPT
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INVESTOR PRESENTATIONFebruary 2018
* Results subject to half year audit review
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AGENDA
2
1 Redbubble: The Basics
2 10 Years of Solid Marketplace Growth
3 Strategic Focus on Accelerating Existing Dynamics
4 Financials and Forecasts
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SUMMARY OF 1H FY2018 HIGHLIGHTS - Positive Momentum Continues
INCREASING GLOBAL RELEVANCE – Delivering Strong Top Line Growth in New Markets
3
T O T A L G T V S P A I N F R A N C EG E R M A N Y
+32% +110% +95% +50%
G O O G L E S H O P P I N G S K U S I N C R E A S E D F R O M 2 5 M I L L I O N T O 5 0 M I L L I O N
H E A L T H Y M A R K E T P L A C E M E T R I C S
SELLING ARTISTSto 219k
UNIQUECUSTOMERS3
to 2.35 million
SITE VISITSto 127.5 million+33% +40% +39%
> 200,000 MAUs2 on mobile app
20% product pages on new faster platform
> 1 MILLIONpackagesover Xmas
> $100MILLIONto artists1
since inception
1. Aggregate earnings to artists since the inception of the business2. Monthly Active Users3. An unique customer is defined as an unique email address
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B U I L D I N G A H I G H G R O W T H ,
S U S T A I N A B L E A N D D I V E R S I F I E D
M A R K E T P L A C E
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A RECAP ON THE RB STORY
5
A THREE-SIDED MARKETPLACE, FOUNDED IN 2006
UNIQUE CUSTOMERS1
269,000+(CY2017)
3.5M(CY2017) 14.0M
(at end of CY2017)
CONTENT
3rd PARTY FULFILLERS
SELLING ARTISTS
15 FULFILLERS (28 locations), 66 PRODUCTS (at 1H FY2018)
1. A unique customer is defined as an unique email address
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6
Consumer demand for the personally relevant
Cost and capability of print-on-demand and manufacturing-on-demand
The sharing economy of the Internet
DRIVEN BY THREE MAJOR GLOBAL DISRUPTIONS
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0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
$0.50
$0.70
$0.90
$1.10
$1.30
$1.50
RBL Volume RBL Share Price (A$)
COMPANY SNAPSHOT: REDBUBBLE LTD (ASX:RBL)
7
Capital Structure Share Registry (at 04 January 2018)
Sources: Miraqle, CapitalIQ
Board and ManagementMr Richard Cawsey: Non-Executive ChairmanMr Martin Hosking: CEO and Managing DirectorMr Greg Lockwood: Non-Executive DirectorMr Grant Murdoch: Non-Executive DirectorDr Hugh Williams: Non-Executive DirectorMs Jennifer Macdonald: Non-Executive DirectorFrom 22 February 2018
Ms Anne Ward: Non-Executive DirectorFrom 24 March 2018
Mr Barry Newstead: Chief Operating OfficerMr Chris Nunn: Chief Financial Officer
Share Price (1 Feb 2018): $1.60
Fully Paid Ordinary Shares: 208.4 million
Market Capitalisation: $333.5 million
Net Cash (31 Dec 2017): $46.3 million
Enterprise Value: $287.1 million
RBL Share Price (last 12 months as at 1 Feb 2018)
Board and Management,
36.1%
Aus&NZ Institutions,
18.2%
US Institutions,
9.9%
Others, 35.8%
AS AT 1 February 2018 (unless stated otherwise)
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B U I L D I N G A H I G H G R O W T H ,
S U S T A I N A B L E A N D D I V E R S I F I E D
M A R K E T P L A C E
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RB. A FAST GROWTH GLOBAL COMPANY
9
93% SALES OUTSIDE AUSTRALIA
Source: Redbubble internal data1. GTV growth in each region measured in AUD
FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
GTV by year and region (A$M)
North America UK EU AU/NZ ROW
$33.7M
$59.3M
$88.4M
$142.9M
$175.4M
6.9%
11.1%
16.0%
65.0%
7.3%
13.2%
14.3%
63.9%
7.7%
16.0%
64.4%
10.9%
9.2%
15.1%
62.0%
12.5%
11.1%
15.2%
60.4%
11.5%
1H FY2018 YoY Growth1
North America 26%United Kingdom 26%Continental EU 70%AU/NZ 34%ROW 45%
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SIGNIFICANT GROWTH POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL MARKETS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 $0.50
Yo
Y G
row
th R
ate
PenetrationRedbubble sales per Capita ($AUD)
YoY Product Sales Growth FY2017
Japan
Germany
Switzerland
United States,23% YoY
United Kingdom, 28% YoY
Australia,27% YoY
Canada
France
Italy
Spain
Singapore
Sweden
NorwayIreland
New Zealand
Denmark
Finland
AustriaBelgium
Netherlands
Source: Redbubble internal data and publicly available population information.
Share of GTV
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RB STRONG & HEALTHY MARKETPLACE DYNAMICS
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
# o
f A
rtis
ts (,
00
0)
Selling Artists
11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
# C
ust
om
ers
(Mill
ion
s)
Unique Customers1
CONSISTENT GROWTH IN CUSTOMERS, ARTISTS AND FULFILLERS
4.6X 5.3X
1. A unique customer is defined as a unique email address2. Number of fulfilment locations multiplied by average number of products per location
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Pro
du
ct
/ Fu
lfillm
en
t C
om
bin
atio
ns
Product / Fulfilment Combinations2
6.6X
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RB. >60% SELLING ARTISTS ARE ALREADY ON THE PLATFORM
Source: Redbubble internal data
25%27%
33%
31%
35%
36%
0
50
100
150
200
250
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
# o
f A
rtis
ts (
,00
0)
Selling Artists by Cohort
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
31K
44K
62K
95K
154K
232K
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7.0%
12.4%
20.1%
27.2%
32.6%
35.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 CY17
% G
TV
Vis
its
mill
ion
s
Desktop & Mobile visits and Mobile GTV %
Mobile GTV % (RHS) Desktop visits (LHS) Mobile visits (LHS)
RB VISITS AND MOBILE DRIVE GROWTH
13
Co
nve
rsion
Rate
(%)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 CY17
# V
isit
s (M
illio
ns)
Visits and Conversion
Visits CVR
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RB. GROWING UNPAID AND OPTIMISING PAID CHANNELSBUT HAVING TO PAY FOR MORE CUSTOMERS WITH TREND TO MOBILE
1. Organic Search = traffic to the site originating from search click through that we do not pay for 2. Direct = Traffic coming directly to the RB homepage 3. Paid = Traffic from sources we pay for (Google ads, Facebook ads, etc.)Source: Redbubble internal data
1H FY15 2H FY15 1H FY16 2H FY16 1H FY17 2H FY17 1H FY18
Organic Search Direct Email Other Free Paid Search & Other Paid Social
$45.3M $44.1M
$81.6M
$64.0M
$100.7M
$78.9M
$132.7M
8%
2%
5%16%
42%
27%8%
2%
7%19%
45%
23%
9%
4%
6%
17%
39%
25%
9%
7%
7%14%
37%
27% 8%
10%
8%
6%
36%
32%
7%
12%
7%5%
38%
31%
6%
11%
6%
5%
38%
35%
23%
32%
80%
Unpaid% 71% 75% 70% 67% 58% 57% 54%Paid% 29% 25% 30% 33% 42% 43% 46%
Paid
Un
paid
24%
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PAID MARKETING DOLLARS BEING SPENT MORE EFFICIENTLY
15
WITH ALL PAID CHANNELS PROFITABLE ON FIRST PURCHASE
Paid Spend / $ Paid GTV
Paid Spend / $ Total GTV
GP / $ Total GTV
4.8c 5.4c
7.0c 7.4c
18.0c 17.1c 16.4c 16.2c
27.2c 27.3c 28.6c
27.2c
$-
5.0c
10.0c
15.0c
20.0c
25.0c
30.0c
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 1H FY2018
AU
D $
Gross Profit v. Paid Spend to generate a $ of Total GTV or a $ Paid GTV
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16Source: Redbubble internal data
RB. DIVERSIFIED PRODUCT RANGE & RAPID GROWTH IN NEW CATEGORIES
75.3 % 78.2 %
66.0 %
54.6 %47.3 %
43.3 %
6.3 %6.6 %
7.5 %
10.2 %
13.3 %16.3 %
9.9 % 6.3 %
11.4 %
11.7 %
12.2 % 11.2 %
2.4 % 2.4 %
2.4 %
8.8 %11.5 %
10.2 %
5.6 % 7.4 % 8.3 %10.4 %
6.2 % 6.1 % 7.1 % 7.3 % 7.5 % 8.6 %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 1H FY2018
GTV by Product Category
T-shirts Stationery / Stickers Accessories Apparel (ex t-shirts) Homewares Artwork
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
#
(Mill
ion
s)
Items1 and Works2 Sold
17Source: Redbubble internal data1. An Item is a combination of physical product and artist work2. A Work is simply a single artist image
Increasing leverage from new physical products
4.3M Unique items1 sold
1.55M Unique works2 sold
Content library can be instantly applied to new products
Diversifying the range of items broadens potential customer base
Content is a mix of enduring (~60%) and new/trending (~40%)
RB. HUGE CONTENT LIBRARY & PRODUCTS PROVIDE INCREASING LEVERAGE~60% OF SALES ARE FROM ENDURING CONTENT
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RB PRODUCTION IS LOCALISED IN THE PRIMARY MARKETS
18Source: Redbubble internal data, updated to 1H FY20181. Number of fulfilment locations multiplied by average number of products per location
Localisation of production has R E D U C E D G L O B A L A V E R A G E D E L I V E R Y T I M E by a full day in FY17, resulting in:
M A R G I N I M P R O V E M E N T via reduction of shipping charges
C O N V E R S I O N U P L I F T from improved delivery times
N P S G A I N S from better service experience
S Y S T E M I C R E D U N D A N C Y against fulfiller failure
Further N A T U R A L H E D G E
F U L F I L M E N T
L O C A T I O N S
28 6C O U N T R I E S
WITH GAINS IN MARGIN, CONVERSION, CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE & NETWORK REDUNDANCY
P R O D U C T / F U L F I L M E N T
C O M B I N A T I O N S 1
309
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B U I L D I N G A H I G H G R O W T H ,
S U S T A I N A B L E A N D D I V E R S I F I E D
M A R K E T P L A C E
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THE REDBUBBLE FLYWHEEL OF AWESOMENESS
20
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B U I L D I N G A H I G H G R O W T H ,
S U S T A I N A B L E A N D D I V E R S I F I E D
M A R K E T P L A C E
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P&L (A$M)2Q 2Q YoY
(2Q18 v 2Q17)1H 1H YoY
(1H18 v 1H17)
FY17 FY18 Growth CC Growth1 FY17 FY18 Growth CC Growth1
GTV $62.5 $84.2 34.7% 34.7% $98.6 $129.8 31.7% 33.1%
Revenue $49.8 $67.0 34.6% 35.5% $78.7 $102.3 30.0% 32.0%
Gross Profit $17.8 $22.7 27.8% 28.1% $28.3 $35.3 24.7% 26.1%
GP Margin 35.7% 33.9% (5.1%) (5.4%) 36.0% 34.5% (4.1%) (4.5%)
Paid Acquisition $(4.2) $(5.9) 40.3% 42.9% $(6.6) $(9.6) 47.0% 50.7%
Gross Profit (after Paid Acquisition) (GPAPA)
$13.6 $16.8 23.9% 23.5% $21.7 $25.7 18.0% 18.6%
GPAPA Margin 27.3% 25.1% (8.0%) (8.8%) 27.6% 25.1% (9.2%) (10.1%)
Operating Expenses $(11.4) $(12.8) 12.3% 13.2% $(21.2) $(23.1) 9.1% 10.5%
Operating EBITDA $2.2 $4.0 85.0% 79.8% $0.6 $2.6 332.4% 325.4%
Other Income/Expenses $(0.9) $(0.8) (9.2%) 27.7% $(1.7) $(1.5) (9.4%) 2.8%
EBITDA Profit/(Loss) $1.3 $3.2 149.8% 99.2% $(1.1) $1.1 202.5% 299.8%
Source: Redbubble internal unaudited management accounts
1. “Constant currency basis” reflects the underlying growth before translation to Australian dollars for reporting purposes.
• GTV growing at >30% on both floating and constant currency basis for 2Q & 1H
• Relative Revenue growth in 1H impacted by higher sales tax component in GTV from faster growing European markets
• GP Margin lower due to seasonal product mix and pricing and promotional initiatives
• Benefits of higher base volumes and already negotiated fulfiller discounts to assist underlying GP Margin to rebound in 2H
• Operating leverage evident in 1H ratio of Revenue growth to aggregate of Paid Acquisition and Operating Expenses growth of 1.6x
• Operating EBITDA up $2.0M compared to 1H FY2017
2Q & 1H FY2018 INCOME STATEMENT SUMMARY
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1. GTV (Gross Transaction Value) = Total receipts from customers less fraud, refunds and chargebacks2. Repeat GTV = GTV earned from customers who have previously purchased from Redbubble, regardless of the date of their initial purchase3. AOV: Average Order Value (Order sales / number of orders) 4. Customers are unique customers counting only once however many times they have bought on Redbubble during the period5. Repeat customers are customers who have purchased more than once on Redbubble, regardless of the date of their initial purchase6. “Constant currency basis” reflects the underlying growth before translation to Australian dollars for reporting purposes
• GTV growth at 34.7% for 2Q and 33.1% for 1H on constant currency basis6
• 61.0% YoY growth in 2Q Mobile GTV particularly strong, more than double Desktop’s GTV growth of 23.8% for the quarter
• Visits growth driven by ~50% increase in both organic searches and mobile traffic with associated effect on conversion
• Lower AOV caused by increasing product share of lower value sticker items. 1H AOV comparison also includes small FX effect
• Marketplace metrics of Visits, Customers and Selling Artists all remain healthy
2QFY2017
2QFY2018
YOYgrowth
1HFY2017
1HFY2018
YOYgrowth
GTV1
Selling Artists
Visits
Repeat GTV2
AOV3
Conversion rate
Repeat Customers5
Mobile GTV
Customers4
$62.5M
49.6M
$23.0M
$49.5
2.55%
0.35M
136,300
$19.4M
1.10M
$84.2M
70.4M
$31.0M
$47.3
2.53%
0.51M
183,500
$31.3M
1.55M
34.7%
42.0%
34.5%
-4.6%
-0.6%
45.3%
34.6%
61.0%
41.5%
$98.6M
91.6M
$36.8M
$48.7
2.21%
0.52M
164,300
$30.3M
1.68M
$129.8M
127.5M
$48.2M
$45.9
2.22%
0.75M
218,800
$47.9M
2.35M
31.7%
39.3%
30.9%
-5.7%
0.3%
43.6%
33.1%
58.1%
40.2%
2Q & 1H FY2018 KEY MARKETPLACE METRICS
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SUMMARY: A GLOBAL AUSTRALIAN GROWTH STOCK
On strong momentum, Redbubble is reaffirming its previous guidance of moving into ongoing operating EBITDA profitability late in FY2018.
24
GLOBAL LEADER RIDING 3 MAJOR DISRUPTIONS
SCALING RAPIDLY ON BACK OF FUNDAMENTALS
PROXIMATE TO BREAKEVEN
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NO INVENTORY RISK
NO WAREHOUSING COSTS
UNIQUE R B BUSINESS MODEL
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NO DISTRIBUTION COSTS
POSITIVE WORKING CAPITAL CYCLE
INSIGNIFICANT CAPITAL INVESTMENT (PP&E)
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Inflows
Days
Out-flows
$100GTV
0 1 - 2
- $3.30PAYMENT
PLATFORM
$96.7
1 - 3
PRODUCT SHIPPED &
REVENUE EARNED1
7
- $15.0ARTIST
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- $48.50FULFILLERS
85 - 90
- $4.70TAX
CASH GENERATED
BEFORE
OPERATING EXPENSES
$28.60
Analysis based on FY17
1. Revenue earned is GTV less artist margin and tax (i.e.. $79.80 on $100 GTV)
POSITIVE CASH CYCLE
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1H FY2018 MOBILE AND DESKTOP KEY METRICS
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Source: Redbubble internal data1. Conversion rate is the percentage of visits to the site that result in a purchase being made2. AOV: Average Order Value (Order sales / Order count)3. Includes Tablet
1HFY2017
Conversion rate1 3.00%
Visits 46.3M
AOV2 $49.2
Desk
top3
Conversion rate1 1.41%
Visits 45.3M
AOV2 $47.6
% of Total visit 50.6%
% of Total visit 49.4%
1HFY2018
3.01%
58.3M
$46.7
1.55%
69.3M
$44.6
45.7%
54.3%
YOYgrowth
0.5%
25.8%
-5.2%
10.1%
53.0%
-6.1%
-4.9% pts
4.9% pts
Mobil
e
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WHAT WE HAVE DELIVERED DURING 1H FY2018
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F I N D Y O U R T H I N GD E E P E R
R E L A T I O N S H I P SG L O B A L A C Q U I S I T I O N S C A L A B I L I T Y
Goals Accelerate growth in high value, discoverable content, mitigating piracy
Build a personalised mobile experience for our members
Sustainable, low-cost, global new customer acquisition
Reinvest in a faster platform, lower prices and faster delivery
Allocation of Engineering
Resources30% 30% 10% 30%
Highlights ü Improved search and browsing experience
ü English language search pages (~20% of all views) moved to a new and faster platform
ü Site features enabling partnerships between rights holders and artists
ü Continued scaling of the app,login & signup, and push notifications
ü Synchronisation of favorites enabled across different devices
ü Personalised content feed enhancements using new ranking algorithm
ü Optimised organic search
ü Google inventory expanded from 25 million to 50 million SKUs
ü Expanded German payment options and trust signals
ü Rolled out new and faster platform for all T-Shirt products on mobile and desktop in English
ü 5 new product launches
ü 4 new fulfiller locations on-boarded
Success Indicators
• Speed of a mobile search query increased more than 2x
• 200,000 Monthly Active Users (MAUs)1 on mobile app
• > 1.8 million new customers during 1H FY2018
• Ability to increase site capacity on Black Friday and to support high loads on Cyber Monday foundation for auto-scaling
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F I N D Y O U R T H I N GD E E P E R
R E L A T I O N S H I P SG L O B A L A C Q U I S I T I O N S C A L A B I L I T Y
Goals Accelerate growth in high value, discoverable content, mitigating piracy
Build a personalised mobile experience for our members
Sustainable, low-cost, global new customer acquisition
Reinvest in a faster platform, lower prices and faster delivery
Focus Areas • Continue to strengthen value proposition for artists and rights holders
• Make it easier for high quality content to be created and found
• Reduce and rapidly remove low quality/IP infringing content
• Transform the user experience and data platform for Redbubble members
• Continueto encourage customer loyalty
• Sustain growth and profitability of new user acquisition through organic and paid channels
• Drive profitability through operational scale and pricing/promotion optimisation
• Drive speed in our platforms with a priority focus on:
• Systems that enable faster addition of new products and fulfillers
• Continuation of work to migrate key site pages and key systems to new faster, more scalable platform
Success Indicators
• New user conversion
• Orders per user
• Improved revenue per user
• Enhanced member experience
• European market growth
• Paid channel growth and ROI
• Page speed improvements
• Increased GTV from new products
WE WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AGAINST OUR STRATEGIC INITIATIVES
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DISCLAIMERThe material herein is a presentation of information in summary form and does not purport to be complete. Investors or potential investors should seek their own independent advice. This material is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of a particular investor. These should be considered when deciding if a particular investment is appropriate.
Forward-looking Statements
This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements that are based on information and assumptions known to date and are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or achievements could be significantly differentfrom those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Redbubble. These factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements contained in this announcement.
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