investor day 2007 frankfurt, january 25 , 2007 · pdf fileinvestor day 2007 frankfurt, january...
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Fleet StrategyInvestor Day 2007Frankfurt, January 25th, 2007
Nico BuchholzSVP Corporate FleetDeutsche Lufthansa AG
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Overview
ImplementationEvaluationStrategy Conclusion
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Lufthansa Corporate Fleet
Is responsible for Fleet Strategy, Development of Aircrafttogether with the Manufacturer, as well as Aircraft Purchasesand Sales within the Lufthansa Group.
This includes§ passenger aircraft from 30 seats to 500 seats§ cargo aircraft
This includes the same activities for the engine market.
Additionally the Aircraft Asset Management is also performedalong with Aircraft Leasing Activities.
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Each market needs a different approach
Long-haul
Short-haul
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30
2006 2010
83
106
119
73
2006 2010
298
market drivenrequirement
possibleaircraft types
200-300 A350/B787Seater
400 Seater B747-8
550 Seater A380
150-250 Seater A320Fam/B737Fam
80-150 Seater A320Fam/B737FamCRJ/C-Series/EMB/Sukhoi
50-70 Seater CRJ/EMB/Sukhoi
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Strategy/Longtermplanning
Earlynegotiation
Finalnegotiation Contract Controlling
Phase-out&
remarketing
Fly SellBuy
Aircraft Asset Management = Corporate fleet
Finance
Tax Balance Sheet Financing
Aircraft evaluation and manufacturer discussionsAircraft evaluation and manufacturer discussions
Detailedspecification
Plan
Life Cycle: The Airline perspective (> 30 years)
Source: Corporate Fleet
OperationalPlanning
Roughspecification
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ConceptDevelopment
DetailedDesign
ProgramDefinition
Test &Evaluation Production Ops &
Support Disposal
Action here has the most leverage on costs later on,
here, in the business envelope of LH.
80% of costs committed, <15% incurred
4. Feedback loop to transmit& secure targets set
during acquisition processThe majority of leverage into LH s businesscase appears to be here.This means being proactive as an Airline,early in the LC.
2. Acquisitionprocess
3. LH b.cOps process
1. Engage the LC before acquisition / operations
5. Disposalprocess
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
Life Cycle: The Manufacturer Perspective
20% of costs committed, >75% incurred
Enhance Shareholder value
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The STRATEGY of today: focused on delivering the bestvalue proposition for LH and linked to the output of theoverall strategy process
Situation auditGap analysis level of fit (fleet)
Potential scenarios fleet development
Evaluation of scenarios
Market driven corporate strategyMaximize shareholder value (network,
KSF s (fleet), restrictions (risk + finance)
Qualitative
Quantitative
Fleet StrategyOpportunity, Risk, Scale, Build-
up
Benchmark
Max. Value = Fleet Strategy
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Evaluation of Life Cycle Benefit
LH Strategy - - - - - - -
Aircraft Choice
Cash Operating Cost
Price
Delivery DateTechnology
Spare Price Developments
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Definitions as used
Aircraft related
MTOW: max permissible weight of the aircraft at the start of the takeoff rollMEW: weight of the structure, power plant, furnishings, systems and other equipment
that are considered an integral part of the aircraftMZFW: maximum weight permitted before usable fuel is loaded into the airplaneOEW: manufacturer's empty weight plus the operator's itemsCOC: all cost to operate an aircraft (fuel, crew, maintenance, landing and
air traffic control fees, except capital cost and insurance)Range: range in still air, in nautical milesSFC: Specific Fuel Consumption = the fuel efficiency of an engine design. It measures the
fuel needed to provide a given thrust over a certain period of operation(in kg fuel per lbs thrust)
Other expressions
Evaluation of an Aircraft:considers technological impacts and COC over the operational life spanis not related to price at the initial phaseis not linked to strategy at the initial phase
Lufthansa life cycle:From Entry Into Service (EIS) at LH until and including divestment from LHOriginal Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) life cycle =From conception of programme, through production phase, until fleet size has declined to aminimum operational fleet
back up
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1970 ------ >> 2006 >2014
Passenger Airline:Where we are, how we got there And where to go
70 Seats
94 Seats
115 Seats
16F/128C
A380
IntercontIntercont
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
B747-8
200 300 seatswide body
100 250 seatsshort haul
Regional Aircraft
ContCont
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TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY
19891989 ExampleExample: A340 vs. DC: A340 vs. DC--10102-Man vs. 3-Man Cockpit - 8%Fuel-Consumption-Reduction - 25%Maintenance - 9%Extended Range (A340 vs. DC-10)Commonality to A320-FleetLess NoiseMore Comfort
.
The last long-haul aircraft rollover can be measured.It proved our assessment.
DC-10
A340-300
(unit cost reduction)
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Overview
ImplementationEvaluationStrategy Conclusion
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The target
OEW
Range =
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To manage cost is to understand the levers that impacteach cost element
Fuel
Total Maintenance Cost
Landing Fees
Handling Fees
Navigation Fees
Cockpit Crews
Cabin Crews
typi
calc
ash
oper
atin
gco
st(C
OC
)of
long
haul
airc
raft
Cost elements have to be measured fortheir competitive sustainability
100%
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Structural/MaterialCarbon fibre; CompositesNew alloys; GlareLaser beam weldingMaintenance cost
EnginesFuel burn reduction
Slow rotating fanNew compressor-/turbine profilesNew alloysVariable pitch fan
Low emission combustor / double stage burnerNoise reduction
Aerodynamic/FlightmechanicsLarger laminar areaAdaptive wingRibletsOptimized stabilityReduction of noise
Systems / ATCNew Cockpit-ArchitectureFly by light
Integrated networks & ground dataexchange/linkMore electric / less hydraulicNew APU technology / fuel cellFree flight concept
Cabin designLower deck seatingNew Entertainment systemsNew Catering Systemes
Technology assessment leads to cash operating costsensitivities over our lifecycle
Pic-Source: NASA
Progress is expected to focus on detail improvements of aerodynamics, engines,production and systems
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Impact of Fuel price
Source: TECSON
Source: TECSON
Source: TECSON
Source: TECSON
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Del
tasf
c(%
)1980s
~ 15 %improvement
Datum =>
Current programs show a significant improvement in specificCurrent programs show a significant improvement in specificfuel consumption (fuel consumption (sfcsfc))
1990s2000 >2007
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Aircraft Maintenance
Engine: i.e. materials, repair procedures,design of engines, less partsreduce cost
i.e. landing gear and brakes, newmaterials, multiple source and thebraking procedures reduce cost
self diagnostic maintenance andoptimised design reduce cost(i.e. simplified flap system,electrically instead of hydraulicallyactivated)
Components:
Airframe:
*) slices not corresponding to absolut levels
Source: Corporate Fleet
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Dealing with the manufacturers
GE RRPW
AIRBUS
Embraer SukhoiBombardier
multiple supplier strategy for key elements
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Fees
Navigation Landing Handling
Input MTOW Payload + SpaceMTOW
As payload is the only driver yielding revenues,thus weights are critical in any evaluation.
for
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%relative cost per trip
rela
tive
unit
cost
per s
eat
Increaseaircraft
size
Decreaseaircraft
size
NewTechnology
Type X
Type X stretched
The operating cost chart enables us to easily positioncomparable aircraft
Type X shortened unattractivearea
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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Overview
ImplementationEvaluationStrategy Conclusion
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Putting strategy and evaluation into practice
Decisions on fleet gobeyond economics
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A380-800
A340-600
B747-400
A340-300
344
549
306
221+ 38%
+ 34%
+ 34%
550
450
350
250
The B747The B747--8 will8 will bebe helpinghelping toto optimizeoptimize thethe capacitycapacitystaggeringstaggering of the Lufthansaof the Lufthansa longlong--rangerange fleetfleet,, whilewhile alsoalsoofferingoffering anan attractiveattractive costcost positionposition
B747-8
approx.410
Long haul
Source: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
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COPYRIGHT © 2006 THE BOEING COMPANY
Quiet for CommunitiesFrankfurt/Main Airport, Germany RWY 25R85 dBA NADP 1 (ICAO-A) Takeoff noise contours 6000nmi Mission
747-400
747-8
FRA-11152006001
B747-400
B747-8
Source: Boeing
and reducingemissions
Kelsterbach
Hattersheim
Raunheim
Walldorf
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Competitive Positioning
§ Own assets§ no cash out for leases and no worry on redelivery cost§ flexible dispositon and planning for replacement, growth and reduction§ well balanced mix between depreciated and new assets
§ Modern fuel efficient fleet to hedge against fuel price fluctuations§ advantage over i.e. 767 fleets by using the A330§ 747-8 entry into service in 2010 offers a position close to the larger aircraft
§ Early delivery dates§ first on 747-8§ unique fast delivery slot management within the September 2006 order: A320s end of 2007,
A330s early 2008
§ Capacity management harmonized through central unit allows less expenditure forrequirements across the group Lufthansa, Germanwings, Swiss, use the sameaircraft pool
§ Aircraft sizes suited to allow operations on frequency driven routes and size drivenroutes
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Planning of invest and capacities requires a long term fleet strategy and a broad horizon.Fleet decisions on types have to satisfy multiple criteria such as taking into account
conflicting interestsHomogeneous fleet versus Operational flexibilityEconomies of Scale versus Product differentiationFleet commonality versus Risk mitigation/-spreadInnovative aircraft versus Low capital expenditure
The target of Fleet Development:Determine a low complexity fleet, market drivenmultiple aircraft sizes offering high flexibility inoperation and performance while being state of
the (technical) art and sustainable highly economical.
To close: the constant challenge
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Q & ANico BuchholzSVP Corporate FleetDeutsche Lufthansa AG
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DisclaimerThis presentation is for informational purposes only, contains preliminary financialand other information about Lufthansa and is subject to updating, revision,amendment and completion. This presentation does not and is not intended toconstitute or contain any offer of securities for sale or a solicitation of an offer topurchase any securities of Deutsche Lufthansa AG or any other company andneither this presentation nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of anycontract or commitment.Certain statements contained in this presentation may be statements of futureexpectations and other forward-looking statements or trend information that arebased on management's current views and assumptions and involve known andunknown risks and uncertainties. In addition to statements which are forward-looking by reason of context, including without limitation, statements referring to risklimitations, operational profitability, financial strength, performance targets, profitablegrowth opportunities, and risk adequate pricing, as well as the words "may, will,should, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, orcontinue", "potential, future, or further", and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially fromthose in such statements. Lufthansa assumes no obligation to update any suchstatements or any other information contained herein.