investment outlook: the dawn is discernible
TRANSCRIPT
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7/30/2019 Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible
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InvestmentOutlook December
T dw i dicibl
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3investment outlook - december 2012
Contents
I Sagy
I..........................................................................................................................5
Say...............................................................................................................................6
Ma ay ...................................................................................................................8
Pf ay: M I Pga................................ ..........
Th: Cha wg a aag ............................. .................................. . 4
Th: G g wh w h ............................... .................... 8
N q ............................. ................................ ................................. ....................
Ga q g h Cy M............................................................... 4
Fx ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 8
Hg f ................................ ................................. ................................ ..................... 3
Ra a ............................ ................................ ................................. ............................ 3
Pa qy .............................. ................................ ................................. ..................... 34C .............................. ................................ ................................. ...................... 36
C ............................ ................................. ................................ ............................. 38
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4 investment outlook - december 2012
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5investment outlook - december 2012
Amid problem-filled political processes, the eco-nomic recovery has been pushed into the back-
ground. Recession risks are down sharply and there
is a growing likelihood of better times ahead.
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a y h j aay w, gwh ay a-a a ay h apa a wh a a a h
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f. W fa a g a hagg p aha,
a h hp f a gh f.
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gaay ah ha aaa (hap). Faa
a h ha ha apa. Phap
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g a, a ha aaga. Th
z , US hh a h Ch
a a xap f h . If h a af h ay g yg h US a Cha a
h a h, h apa w gaay
pa .
I h f Investment Outlook, w f Cha,
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hans peterson
CIO Private Banking
and Global Head of Investment Strategy
The dawn is discernible
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6 investment outlook - december 2012
Say
*
*Forecasts are based on the SEB House View and our economic growth scenario(see page 8).
Reasoning
11% 16% in the short term: The economic picture has bright-
ened, but the biggest driving force behind the year's stock market
upturn is expectations about the world's central banks.in the long term: The markets that still appear to have the greatest
potential are emerging markets and countries and regions that will
grow on their own power. Such characteristics as a large domestic
market and decoupling from problem areas are preferred.
2 % % F , h US Fa R a Epa Ca
Ba ha pp qy a h ag y a, ag
a w fla w, ha fh ag
aaa. NEGATIVE h g wa g
OECD . Pha f g
a gag a w y, whh a a ha
w ay ay pa. Rg py a w fla
xpa gh a ha Sw' Ra
w wg y a D a
Fay . h g wa pa: Th g pfa w ha h pa
g w pay a h a gh -
y pa h ay.
% % h g : W aa ha C L/S a
Sya Ma ag g a pf a a
, fyg hg. W xp a ffi -
f h a a, w f zgzag
pa a h a f.
Rl 3 .% % Pay a a aa a w a -. h g : Maj ff
fig w pay a ay a w a a-
a a fh h a. Th REIT
a g pf gy g .
% % Th g a yg a a (NAV) wa -fl p f pa qy pa g h a-
. h g : Th f a h-
ha a a aa ha , a g f
aa ag wh a gwh pp a -
g- a gwh.
4 % % Gpa wh h pa hapy f p -a, p f h a p a a xp
a a a h a ya f w.
: Aag gwh Cha a hgh
a a p. W h y a xp a a
p a p hgh ya. NEGATIVE
wa ga p, whh a hgh, a ag ha
x wah p h p, p h
fa.
5 % % h g wa wh
g faa. Lw aa a p
a a gwh ffa w h EM ph a OECD
a ag fa f EM .
1 The forecast refers to the global stock market. 2 The forecast refers to a basket of investment grade and high yield corporate bonds. 3 The forecast refers to the REIT
market. 4 The forecast refers to a basket in which the energy, industrial metal and precious metal categories are equally weighted. 5 The forecast refers to the alpha-gener-
ating capacity of a foreign exchange trading manager.
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7investment outlook - december 2012
Say
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2 00 3 2 00 4 2 00 5 2 00 6 2 00 7 2 00 8 2 00 9 2 01 0 2 01 1 2 01 2
Fixed income Hedge funds Real es tate
Private equity Commodities Currencies
Equities
Fixed incom eHedge fundsReal estate
Private equity
CurrenciesCommodities
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Expected volatility
Expected
return
Ha a a a h fwg :
Eq = MSCI AC W EUR
Fx = JP Mga Ga GBI EUR Hg
Hg f = HFRX Ga Hg F USD
Ra a = EPRA/NA-REIT EUR
Pa qy = LPX0 EUR
C = DJ UBS C TR EUR
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2008-11
2009-02
2009-05
2009-08
2009-12
2010-02
2010-05
2010-09
2010-12
2011-02
2011-05
2011-09
2011-12
2012-02
2012-05
2012-08
2012-11
Equities Fixed income Hedge funds Real estatePrivate equity Currencies Commodites
Fixed income Equities
Private equity
Commodities
Real estate
Hedge funds
Currencies
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Historical volatility
Historicalreturn
PLEASE NOTE: In August 2012 we changed real estate index from SEB PB Real Estate to EPRA/NA-REIT
Equities
Fixedincome
Hedgefunds
Realestate
Private
equity
Commodities
Currencies
Equities .
Fixed income -.4 .
Hedge funds .63 -.3 .
Real estate .83 -. .56 .
Private equity .86 -.33 .68 .88 .
Commodities .3 -. .68 .3 .4 .
Currencies -. . .8 -. -. .8 .
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7/30/2019 Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible
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8
A period of decelerating world growth
looks set to be followed by a slow upturn
There are risks, but our forecast of a brighter
economic future is not in jeopardy
Pa f h w y pay Ep a Japa ha
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Ba (ECB). Iaa f p, g
fia a fg a ha a, aj hag -
a h h h a g . Hgh py a a
a ww ha w a Gay a
pg pa ff a a ay h -
a f h y . US fia py a h- f
.
GDP gwh h US aa 2 p h h qa
a h hg a hw a g f a a y,
a hgh h p fi pa p. Lg afa g py, h g fia ff aa a-
y a ag a USD 00 ( p f GDP)
201 a pay a, -ghg w
p. Th w ff h fia haw a p
1. p f GDP x ya. Y h a a f a
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W p GDP gwh f ha 2 p h ya, a 2.
p 201 a 2.-.0 p 201. Th Fa R
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a w a ay a. Uay a h a
f h y hapg pa apa pg. W
xp GDP fa y ay 0. p h ya, aga 201
a gw y ha 1.0 p 201, h g fi-
aa a wha a ay h a wh
h ECB Ogh May Taa (OMT) g-
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201.
On the threshold of a better global economy
investment outlook - december 2012
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7/30/2019 Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible
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9
Japa GDP y fa g h haf f 2012, ag
h hg w xp Cha. Th y hpg aagy af a p a pg. A wa gwh
a fla a pg h way f w -
a f h Ba f Japa, ay h f f -
pha. Th a g w, a a f
g fia . Japa ag h
jpay. W p GDP gwh w 2 p h ya, a 1
p x ya a ha 1. p 201.
GDP gwh ay Aa gg a w
h h qa wa aay fa ha h US a
Ep. G a w p pp 201.
W xp fla wha h a
xp f, fla p Aa gay w.
W f aj hf ay py g 201, ahgh
a f ay g ag y a wa
ya-.
Dp h a f qa, h f a
ha ag Cha ha a, jgg f xpy
g aa h a. W p GDP gwh f
ha 7. p h ya, a p 201 a ha
7. p 201. S fa, h ffia py p h -
ww ha , ag h hg h
hag pa ahp.
Ia pfa ha a fay wa, ha g f aa. GDP gwh aa ghy h
h qa, a y y f a
p. W xp GDP a y . p 2012,
a p 201 a ha p 201. Ifla
w ay hgh, ag xy f y a
w, w fla Ia x ya w h ag f
pw a .
F w ya, gwh ha wg La Aa. I 2012,
GDP h g f a a f j a
p . Tha aa pa-g
Aga, Baz a Ch, gwh y a a p
x ya a pay hgh 201. Th ya a x,fla w a p , wh h a fi
La Aa p fia w h a . Ta p -
h g w a a - p f GDP
201, a ha w pay a pa a
OECD .
Th haywgh f Ea (g Ca) Ep
Ra a Pa a w aff y h ga
ww, a hy a xp-p a ha
fay g p fia, hy ha p wh h z
ha Ea Epa . Th p-
ay ff f a a h pa f h g, wh
h Czh Rp, Hgay, Caa a Sa a
hwg wa pfa. O ya a hw ha
Pa a Ra ha g pa f gwh, wh
h fla pp g. Ba f hgh Ra fla-
, h a a Mw w p ag y
a. Mawh Ph fla w fh, pg
f y a .
C hahy a ag gwh h
Ba , a xp pa y wy. Ifla w
a w Laa a Lhaa, hgh Ea. C
a fi w w Laa a w a Lhaa, whh w
a a ghy hgh g fi, Ea a Laa w
hw a ga fig h p fia. Laa j h z 201, a pa.
Af a ya ag f ay p , w f ga GDP
(aj f phag pw pa) gwg y wha
a p h ya, a . p 201 a
p 201. Wh gwh a h ag f . p a-
ay, h EM ph ay aha f h OECD , whh
a xp yay gwh f a 1--2 p
. I a, h w ww w a
2012, fw y a gaa pwg.
Ma ay
investment outlook - december 2012
ISM PMI, United States, TotalJapan, NOMURA/JMMA PMI: COMPOSITE - MFG. & SERVICESMarkit PMI, Euro Zone, TotalMarkit/CIPS PMI, United Kingdom, Total
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Index
(diffusion)
35.0
37.5
40.0
42.5
45.0
47.5
50.0
52.5
55.0
57.5
60.0
During the 2008 economic crash and the 2009
recovery, major OECD countries followed similar
paths, but for the past couple of years the pattern
has changed. The economic dynamic has been much
better in the US and in part the UK, compared to
weakness in the euro zone and Japan. These differ-
ences are closely reflected in regional purchasing
manager expectations.
S: R Ew
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10 investment outlook - december 2012
Gradual shift in focus towards fundamentalsIn the Modern Investment programmes, we have long had a cautious approach to risk, mainly because
political manoeuvring, especially in Europe, has been the largest market-driving force which has resultedin low visibility. Our focus has been on maintaining sound risk, rather than on chasing the last percentages
of returns.
Our approach to risk-taking has not changed. We still expect events in the political arena to affect fi-
nancial markets, but as we wrote in the previous Investment Outlook (published on September 11, 2012),
we predict that market players will gradually let go of political issues and focus more on fundamentals.
Meanwhile, low interest rates and bond yields are forcing capital to seek out riskier assets in order to stay
abreast of inflation.
In Modern Growth we have increased the proportion of equities in order to move closer to the portfolios
more long-term return target, while reducing the duration risk in the fixed income sub-portfolio. We havealso increased the proportion of equities in Modern Aggressive. In both portfolios, we have meanwhile
switched managers in order to improve alpha potential. In Modern Protection, we have invested cash in
leveraged loans and high yield and supplemented our Absolute Return managers with a low risk mandate.
Pfli
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Equities Fixed income Hedge funds Real estate
Private equity Commodities Currencies
R O .Ha a a a h fwg: Eq = MSCI AC W EUR. Fx
= JP Mga Ga GBI EUR Hg. Hgf = HFRX Ga Hg F USD. Ra a
= EPRA/NA-REIT EUR. Pa qy = LPX EUR.C = DJ UBS C TR EUR. C-
= Baay Hg Cy Ta USD.
S: SEB
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11investment outlook - december 2012
C pa ha pp ay h haf f
2012, gay g h pa wh hgh
ag ( ga) a h wh w ag
(hgh y) gay. O w ha h y g-
w ghy, h ag p gap a hgh
py W , p wh a
a h a Opa Tw, a y p
y a w . Th f apa
a ay aa f fla.
Wh y a w a , h f ga -
ag wh a . T a h,
a p xap.
Th xap py appa pa ,
hy ha a p ha g h p-
p a h pa f g a,
a ha a pay a ag h
a p wh a a w.
I M P, w ha a aj hag
a f wh w a
. I h ga g ( p f h p-
f), w y BBay I Ga L, whh
a a y a f a. Hgh y
xp, whh w ha p-wgh 12 p f h
p , ay ag a a h a-
hgh y.
A a h f h pf A R
aag, wh ha f aa a f flxy a
aaag f hag h y a hy aa
a a xp. H, w ha a a w
aag wh aa w pa h h
A R aag, wh h a ga
a 1-2 p ha f y. Th
w f A R a a wh a paf h a f hgh y.
Oa, h pf w p wh aa
a h a ga g f .
Pf ay: M I Pga
2%
1.5%
0%
0%
0%
19.5%
77%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Cash
Currencies
Commodities
Private equity
Real estate
Hedge funds
Fixed income
Equities
Previous CurrentS: SEB
A p , a g h
ya ha fi a a, wh a a
agg f ga a hgh y q wh
hgh y. I M Gwh, w ha h hghy a pay xp h h aa
-aj a y f -7 p .
I 2012, ay 0 p f h pf ha f
hgh y , whh ha fi gfiay f
hg pa. Th pa a a
ha g aha, w xp hgh y
a g a fa h ya, -7 p a aa
fa. Mawh w ha a ha
a, pay ha h ff f h Epa Ca
Ba (ECB) a a gaa pg f p. W ha
h gaay a h qy p f h pf
h qa h pf g-
ag f 7- p .
Eq w a f 2 p f M Gwh, p
f 17. Th p-wghg ag gg a
(+ p ), ga (+. p ) a N q (+0.
p ). T a -xp h y h, hq a a w a g wh aag wh
hgh gwh a pa ah ha y.
T h h pf a , h fix
-pf w awh a ( a
y) y pag p f hgh y wh 2 p
h a hgh y a 2 p ag a.
W ha a wh aag a w a
q, h a M Agg,
wh w a h a hag. I M Gwh w a
a fg wha aa a y
f xp a .
A -ya 100 a p a p f ,whh a ha a (a) a .
p . Th a ha f a 1 p-
ag p, h p f h fa y .. Mawh
w g a p f , whh a ha ha ya,
0.7 (100-. + = 100.7).
Ag a ha h ha a p f 2, a
aa g a a f a .7 p,
whh a ha a ghy hgh. A 1
p a a ha h p fa f
100 9.. E ag a h p, -
f h ya -2.7 (100-.7 +2 = 97.), ga.
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12 investment outlook - december 2012
Pf ay: M I Pga
6.5%
3.5%
2%
0%
0%
27.5%
32.5%
28%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Cash
Currencies
Commodities
Private equity
Real estate
Hedge funds
Fixed income
Equities
Previous Current S: SEB
A a Pf
wgh
Exp Exp
C % C %
Ga q % .8 .3
EM q % .4 .8 3
N q % . 3 .3 4
EM % .3 4 . Hgh y % .8 .5 3
C % -. - .
C 4% . .
Hg f 8% . .
Cah % .
100% 6.7 100% 8.0 100%
Table 1: The first column shows the weight of
each asset class in the portfolio.Column 2 shows how many percentage points
each asset class contributes to overall ex-pected return and Column 3 expresses it in per
cent. Column 4 shows how many percentagepoints each asset class contributes to portfoliorisk (volatility). Column 5 shows this in per cent.
G wgh a fa f ah a a,
h pf ha a xp f .7 p a a
(ay) f p . I Ta 1, w ha aay hw h
ah a a h pf xp
a . Th fig a gh a h y a a
a f wh h pf a . F xap
hgh y, ag 27 p f h pf, a
f 27 p f xp a 1 p f .
M a ha q, ag 2 p
f h a pf, a f ha haf f xp
(1 p ) a (7 p ). Th a w a
yg h a ha f a a g f
, a ha h a a w a f a
0 p f h pf fla. Th ay
a , h x q aa g hpf g- ag f a 7- p .
Th aay a hw ha ah a aa
p, gg a a a a
h a a. Ia EM a xp
a p ga a, hw, w a
hg ff h a a a g f a p-wghg
f q. A p, w ha a a w f
a a wh a h wh a h pag f
h pf h.
A h a a a, h hg f -pf -
17 p xp a f a 9
p f . Th aa haa a
a f a wh h a a h pf.
B 2012, a 2011, h hg f -pf ha h-
a z a ha p xpa. W
ha h a a ph g aay, h
f whh a y p, ha y a a a hg f pf a py
pha CTA ag. Th aay a hw ha w
a a xp , w gay pf
h hgh EM ha a.
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13investment outlook - december 2012
Ba M Agg g- j a
ha x h a a y, qpay a fa ga a a g f . A M
Gwh, h qa w ha gaay h pp-
f ha, f . p f h pf . p
. Of h pag p, 2 ha aa
ga ha a gg a. I gg
a, w a pg pha Aa, whh a
p ay 7 p f h pf.
W ha a a hag aag. I ga
q, w ha aw w f f w aag,
JO Ha Ga S a Tp Ga Opp-
. Bh f q wh pa f hgh ag
gwh. Th aag h ha g p f ffiy
2011 a 2012 wh apa ay p f
ha wh hgh y. O h h ha, hy
ha pf gy g p wh h a
ha f faa pay aa a
app, a g h h qa f 2012. I
p a , w ha h
a g Laa, whh w ha h a.
Oy Aga Iaa ha a ay a
xp Ep w pf py h
xp pfi g.
Egg a hg f h a g f:
Caga Eg, Ea Va Egg Ma, JO
Ha Egg Ma a Wa Ba Egg La-. R ay gfiay w aag a f
h ff y, hy ha a aay pf
h MSCI Egg Ma Ix h ya.
Aa qy xp f T Rw P Aa x Japa,
Cpa Caff Aa Apha a Cha AMC Cha Opp-
. Th f ha a gh ahp wh h x
ha pf ha ha a
a a g a f Aa hg. Th h w ha
flx aa wh a ha paa, h
a Aa p. Tgh hy ha ga pa f
g -pfa.
Cy xp hag a . p . Aga, w
ha hag aag, f Sh C a
V Ba C Tha Eha
C. L h fi w, h aag h a-
f f ah h hap xp-
a pfi y, a ha x-f
aag ha p hgh pa
y .
S fa h ya, h fix -pf ha gay
a h a ga q (+12 p ), ag
f a p f h pf a . UM Gwh w a pg f xp hgh y
wh a a p a agg-
pfi. Th -pf f 2 p hgh
y a 9 p EM .
A M Gwh, w a g a ph
aay f h hg -pf p y p-
a. Th a y p y a a
agg pf ha fi M Agg-
aa. A a fi p, w ha g h p
f pag CTA aag. W ha a
aa hg f y a p (-aa
q).
Af h -wghg, h pf ha a xp
f j . p a a (ay) f 11 p
. F aa a, y ga
hgh, ag w y a
a a f a gwg ga y (hgh a a w
pa), w ga a jfi.
Pf ay: M I Pga
2%
0%
3.5%
0%
0%
16%
32%
46.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Cash
Currencies
Commodities
Private equity
Real estate
Hedge funds
Fixed income
Equities
Previous Current S: SEB
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14
The period of gradually higher growth is over
Growth is trending downward in China
A mini-cyclical upswing may benefit Chinas
stock market
F h pa qa, h Ch y ha
ag. Th f wa aa h
a f 2011. I h h qa f 2012, G D
P (GDP) gwh w 7. p ya--ya,
pa 7. p h pg qa. W
a a a a Ch ha ag ha
aff ga a fa a w a fiaa
a a way. Th a h a Cha
fa py g h , wh a h w g.
Th Ch gwh 2010 ha h ya a
a a. Cya haw ga wh 1) xp
w h a aj OECD w hgh a
a p haa y g ay a
agg (h -h EU Cha ag x-
p a), 2) h Ch hg a wa
ag f h, ) Ch pa aw a
ga h , ) pfi gwh Cha
a ) Ch apa pg .
Dg h 200-2009 fiaa a , Cha ha
a ag p gap (py f p apay), h-
g gwh a ay fag fla. Ah p
wh a ag f , whh qy a h y
aa aga. Tay p gap fa a f
ha h a py wa f fla
aga hgh, a ffi a wg fia ha-
p y h pa afa w way.
Th Ch gwh a f a a a-
f ga/a fa: aa,
a, aa a gaa. Th, ,
ha f y a f ag a h
a-w pay . A h Cha xp-
gwh hp h W Ta Ogaa
(WTO) 2000. Fh, Cha wa a faa
ag p, wh a g ppy f a, hgh ag a
a w f p. Th a fa
ha h gaay pwf, a fl
h Cha aa GDP gwh f 11.7 p
200-2007 9.9 p 200-2011 a ha p 2012-201 (SEB fa).
Th pa g f gwh f
h p fa: a/ha apa, phya apa
a py (hfly w hgy ha aw ga
p p h w).
A ap ppy f a ha a pa g f
h Cha f gwh a, pay
aa a ga f h y aa
g. S 199 Cha aa ppa ha a
y a 20 p ya, wh 2/ g f a -
China is slowing and accelerating
investment outlook - december 2012
During the first decade of the new millennium, GDP growth aver-
aged more than 10 per cent. For various structural reasons, trend
growth will gradually decelerate in the next few decades. In the
short term, however, a cyclical upswing in China is imminent.
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ga f a aa. Th W Ba a ha h
f ha 1 pag p Ch GDP
gwh ah ya h.
Jgg f h a ww h a ga,
aa ppa gwh a a 1-
1 aay h x fi ya. Th pa-
y a a ppy a aa whh w
a f 0 p f a py Cha
a wa a h wa f w -
gwh h y.
Capa pg g p h f phya apa
a pag w- ha a pwf
gwh f Cha. A a ha f GDP, ha a f
j p 1990 a p a p.
Afiay w fiaa apa a pa a
f h ap xpa.
Th a (apa pg a a pag f
GDP) ha h g h pa p f
ya. Th a 1) h ag
f apa hg apa
y ha h, 2) a py p
pj ha a hg a
aa f apa, ) ay ha fi -
ay f pj a ) h a pa a
hf f apa pg a xp wa
pa p. Tay pa p a fy p f GDP, w f 7 p 1990.
I f h -aa f whh y
a a ah g p a ag a
h pag f gg pa pfi a, h ha f aa gg hh
a a h ag a a. I ,
ag hh wg w h ag a p-
ay q xpa a p f h a afy
a h f pa .
N-fa py Cha hgh j
aa p ay afag aa
g ha xp p, h a
, ag a whag fg h
f Cha. Dg 200-2011, aag py gwh
h fi- wa 9. p a h a
.9 p . I h w, aj pa a w
a f a a g py Cha
a.
D w a ga f ag aa
a h pay hf f h f f gwh
f y/apa pg/xp xp
p, h ha a gaa a
Cha py gwh: f a aag f . p
200-2007 7. p 200-2011. Th pa gwh
a Cha ha h fa ya.
Oh fa a ha h a f a h a f
gay g a ha xpa h hapha a ag pp f Ch xp g
w (w xp a gwh).
C: F a a a, h p f ga-
ay hgh gwh Cha . Gwh y
wwa g h x fw a.
Th f a GDP w h a w
a h a a f a a fag a f aa-
. Th f apa pg GDP w a
a h a ha ah a jfiay
hgh , wh h pa a hf h f- f gwh f apa pg a xp wa p-
a p. Py gwh Cha w gaay
w a h f f gwh hf f ha p
aay h a.
Cha GDP gwh a f a aa aag f j
a 9 p h 190 ha 10 p h
fi a f h w . A aa a
a h a aay ha h a w a
a aag f a 7 p 2010-2019 a - p
2020-2029. I h w, Ch gwh w hf
w ga w z p.
Th: Cha wg a aag
investment outlook - december 2012
Since 2000, capital spending as a share of GDP in China has great-
ly increased due to economic policies that have prioritised export-
and investment-led growth. The ratio appears to have peaked,
however, and there are many indications that it will continue to fall
as the focus of growth shifts towards private consumption.
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Dg h a y fi ya ( O N),
a pa afa Cha. Th ahp f
h g C Pay h f a fi ya ,
ay p a ay f ya. F h
aa pay ahp . Eay h fwg ya a
w g a ha f a a app.
Th ya 1h aa g f h C Payf Cha ga N a a f a w.
A 2/ f h y pa a a
g pa. A h p f h hahy h P
Sag C, whh wa f
, f wh fi a w. Th ag h
C a X Jpg, wh pag H Ja a ga
ay (a a p f Cha Mah 201), a L
Kqag, wh w pa W Jaa a p x
Mah.
Th ahp hag xp py ay aa
hag Cha py pay
w f h h aa wh a f agw f ff h Sag C. Ia, h
fi-ya pa y fw a p, -
pay g h fi ya f h w ahp. W xp
f f a a wha w a-
a gwh, wh ga pha pa p
a pha xp a apa pg.
Th pa hag ay a a a a
py x a h a ay fia
a, f hy a . Ah a f h
wa-a- appah wa h fia a ay p-
y ay ha h Ch a a a a
fay g, a ha h ah ha a f
h p 200-2009.
A ha , h g j a y ag f
(qa 7 p f GDP), whh h
-p f a fiaa aa. I
a, Ch ah a a a h
a a f h a, whh f ay
a ha a w app y ay
a phap ay.
Th y f h 200-2009 fiaa a -
wa a pp y a a qy
f h Pp Ba f Cha (PBC). A a ha f GDP,
g ha h f ha 100 p 200
12 p ay. My ppy (M2) a h pag
f -pfg a (NPL) ha a apy. Y
Ch hh ha y ; h a y
20 p f GDP, pa p h US a 9
p h UK.
Th a, h a fa pj
h Ch fia pp pay h a-
p a aay a a (a 2 p
f GDP) ha h a 200-2009. I a,
h yp f apa pg ha ah g a a
y a h pay ff a a h- a-
a py , hgh h pj a f ga p-
a g- p.
Th PBC ha a ay py h a-
, appay pa h q f a
a qy ( a). C ha h-
Th: Cha wg a aag
investment outlook - december 2012
Viewed in retrospect, Chinese retail sales have essentially
fluctuated in response to general economic conditions. We nowforesee an upward trend for retailers, assuming that the focus of
economic growth shifts to the domestic market and household
consumption.
In response to the financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009,
the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) flooded the economy with
liquidity, causing the money supply to rise at record speed. Side
effects included a growing number of doubtful loans. Given this
background, PBoC policies are more cautious today.
S: Ma
S: Ma
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Th: Cha wg a aag
investment outlook - december 2012
Ag ha h Ch y ay ay 201, h y q a w a
a pa wh h w ha -p Cha gwh a y pf
w h a.
Ia a y . By a a,
ay Ch apa pg ha
pp h ahp hag.
C g, phaaa a a h-
gy, a a a afy, a
a pa pag p p-a a pp, .. ag p
f h f hh.
Eqy aa Cha a . Th p/
ag a f 201 (MSCI Cha Ix) a a
9., pa a aag f 12. h pa 10
ya a a S&P 00 P/E a f h US f
12. 201. Th p-- a Cha ha a
a 1. f 201, pa ha
2007.
g p ay g g aga ay ah a
f h a a pay.
I May 2012, h PBC w ah q
20 p f ag a. I Jy, h a y
a p , h ha a
p ppy qy Cha fiaa y-
(pha f fix f a, wh
a qy h a pay). W p ha h
PBC w hg ag a pah a h y a
a a p f a x p ag ha
h Ch aay hag.
Ahgh GDP gwh ha y w ay
2010, h f a ha ag ha y a. Ma
aa f h Sp a O a a
Although the PBoC has lowered both its cash reserve requirements
for banks and its key interest rate, the reductions have been small.
There is room for a larger dose of stimulus if the economic perfor-
mance should prove significantly weaker than expected.
p, pa apa pg, a a a xp
a hw a p Cha. Th pp y h
a phag aag f h afag a
. Mawh fla f a , wh p-
p fa ya--ya.
Eay h a h Ch a whh pf
y py h pa p h p
ga h y a wa ag ga w
Sp-O. F Jaay 1 N , hw, a
-. p , h Shagha S Exhag Cp Ix
agg h ga a (+. p f h MSCI W
Ix a ). B g aha, h pa
f h Ch a ah p a pa h W
Ix.
Th a g h fi haf f 201, h a g
ha ha h y w a -ya pwg. By
h, ga haw a y ha aa, a
h Ch pa y w aa. Pa -
ay Cha a h US (ag a h fia ff) w
ha h. If , h ag h hh a
Cha h p, g aag
a a gwh h y.
Lg a, g p wh h Fa R ha
xpa qaa ag (g Q2, pay Ag-
N 2010), gg a a g h
Cha ha hw g gwh a. Th p ha a p h EM ph a
ap f py .
A a a y h F QE (a phap QE), -
p a aa Cha a a ghy a Ch
fia py a wha h a f h
fi haf f 201
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Gold still a monetary asset with a globally
accepted value
The gold price trend is linked to the rise in debt
A continued rise in debt justifies including gold
in a portfolio
Th p f g ha a 00 p h pa
ya, a g w ag a a- hgh. Mawh,
h U Sa a, w w a ha
a a f ya f h a. Th a ag
f wg g ha h w a a w
xpa h aa h a a h ay a.
G a a h a y a a aya. By fa h gg a f g (a 70 p )
y jwy p. Th wg a
Ia ha g a a p wh pp a -
ay whh h ga a h a.
Ia ha h w ag f g f
, ap gwh Cha a ha y
w a a Ia. I ya, h jw-
y y ha ga ha aa p. A
a ha f a f g g f a , wh
h f h a a g a.
Ahgh g ha ag h y -pfg a-
200, aa ha g, q, f
a, ha ay gwh p ay ; a
-p a ha ga . N g,
a a pa, f xap, ffi ay aj
a f.
Hw, f a g a pp ha xa g a a
a, p a g ha h a a. G a
g h a f ay ,
wh aa gag hw h p a ah
a. Thgh hy, h a f
ha aj pay .
A f h g aa wa
19 a a pa h ay 1970. Th -a
B W y wa ah fwg a f . I wa a pggg h f f-
f h US a (Sw a a
191). Th US gaa a fix a a whh a
f g.
Th pp f ag h a wh g, a f -
a ay, h a f a a,
a xhag a a fh, wa p a a
h w ay wh a a,
h w ahy, xpy a h ay
a f a a. I ppa paa, h ay
a h a a pg y. I 1971,
P Rha Nx h w h US aa g, h g h B W y (y 197 h
pa aga ha flag xhag
a). Th a h US h g h wa
p y pay f h y wa Va.
S g a f pay, a h a
g a gay ap f f pay ay. I
h w, ffi g a hp a ha g
xhag f a g. Y h a a ha p-
a ay a ga h a a a a f
pay. Th US a f Uah, f a, ha a p
wa ag g a ga , a f fah
h US Fa R ay py. Wh Uah ay y pa pg, h
ha g a ga wh -
aa.
G h hy f g, ga apa a h fa
ha ay y aj a a g ag g
hg a pa f y , w w ag ha
g jy h a f y a a ay a, -
fi a a way f pg ag a. May a
a ha a ya a h g
.
Gold glitters when worries enter the scene
investment outlook - december 2012
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19
I h a ha j a ga-
a a g ag g a. F xap, g
h a f h ay aa y h Iaa
May F (IMF), a ha gaa ha a gfia
g a pa a w.
F h wh a pa f g a a ,
wh g ha f h y ag xhag a
f (ETF) f a aag, AUM, a
g ETF wh yg phya g a.
A h a , pa a ha g a -
pf f w faa p:
- Pg aga h f pa
- Pg aga h f phag pw
Dff a ay a h w p ayg
g. G pay afi h q f p-
aga h f phag pw. Hw,
f a p aga h f pa
. S, g f ag pf-
wh h a ag f hg a p
aga 1) fla 2) y ah.
Th a f y h y a pp -
a w way. Eh a a a a h y
ppy y pg y (ag ay a)
a ga w a a hgh h a-g y (faa ag).
Wh a a a h ay a, pa
h ay a h f a
a a; a a h ag
y. Phap ay wha gh ha hp, h
y f y ha fa hapy ay a
h w. Mawh, a a ha hapy a
h ay a a w h y a a whh
hy y a. Sh y a ha hay ha
a aj pa gag h y ppy. Wh a
a hapy a h ay a, h ay a
h ha ha h y w a h y p p
p. A a f hgh ay a a
a, h y w a fi h y
a h ag y, wh h q
a fla p (a ga p a). Tay
a a, wh a-z a (h p f
y), a h f fla gfiay.
Hay, h p f g ha a pay a x-
fia y ppy, ha , wh h a f w
y a a x wha f, f a,
f ppa z, ay a h . Th
p f g ha a a h y f y h
y, a a g f fla.
E f h y fi h y h f
f a hap fla, h fa a ha h hg
f ay wh pap y w gay f
h a a ay a h ay a. L
ay, f h a f py, ha a a -
w 10 p f a h a h w. Mawh
h US Fa R ay a.
Wh py h h 10 p w fi h h-
g gay , wh w g y p f
h a f a.
O way f yg h a ha, wh
pap y, a p g ( ppy).
F h wh g a y, h ff w h
, a wh h a f pap y fa, hy w
aa h phag pw y wg g. A w
a, f g aa ha -
ppy a a ha a apa.
Th W G C, whh p h ag g
g pa a h g, a ha
1,000 f g ha xa h
f . If a h g w gah gh a f a
, h w a 20.2 g.
Ah ag f wg g a a ah p (p
). Th w g a p aga a aj
y ah, f a, f h pj w , wa
w a . I f ga fiaa w, g
ha a a af ha.
Th: G g wh w h
investment outlook - december 2012
Measured in dollars, the stock market recovery has beenastonishingly good. When we take into account the dollars
performance during this period, that is, measuring share
price performance in gold instead of dollars, the trend has
not been as spectacular at all.
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Th: G g wh w h
investment outlook - december 2012
G a pay a f, a a aa-
f xhag (f f y) fia y (
x). Th a f g y hw y way pap y. Th a f y a y
y fah h (y). Pap y pp wa-
ay hg ha pap, f x wh -
. Oy, fah g a ga apa a a
a a pa. If pp fah g w appa
h, h w ay ha a a ff
a.
Ic i glbl dbO , h g p ha a y wh h
a , pay ha f h U Sa,
g a a a h a ha g
f x p. Ry, h f ha agy
h a p a ga . May
w h xpa gwh ga a a ha.
Th a fla p wh a ag pag
f h h a w ay
ag (pay w h a a). Th w
gwh, a pa a a a a g ha
hw ha hy a ppa a xaay p
ah h j. Th j h a
Fa pap y ay fi a g-
y ha a pgg
a pfi a. Th a f pap y h -
y y pp fah h , whh pa a y. Fa h La w f "fah".
gwh a fla. I p f xy w a
hay, gwh a ga flaay p-
w.
Ca a ha a ay py a a h
pa. O ha ha a ag h
a qaa ag (QE). Thgh QE, h US Fa
R (F) a w y gay a h
pha ff a. Th fa, h pha ha
a h a. I pa, h F
h w y, f a, y US g ;
h US Tay Dpa h , whh h F
h pha. I h way, h F y whh h
g wa fg h US g xp a
fg fi. Th F a hp afiay p w
a a xp y phag
h ay a. I hp ha h a wa a ay (apa pg a
pa p).
Th Ba f Japa ha g p fh a yg a-
ay ayhg ha ay h y y-
g y. Th a a phag y
a q h f f xhag a f (ETF).
A a, h a ha w a w a a wh h
a pa xp away appy w.
Th y a a whh
ffi ha f y p h f. Hw h
y a a wh g h fah f -
? J a Gay h 1920 p ag qa f
y pay wa paa a h US g h p
g f y wa Va, ay a a
g a yg y gwh a figh fla hgh
h pg p.
Over time, the price of gold has correlated
fairly well with the exponential increase in US
debt. After the US decided to sever the dollars
link to gold in the early 1970s, the rate of
increase in debt rose sharply. Gold prices have
been quick to respond.
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Th: G g wh w h
investment outlook - december 2012
Th Ga ha fg h a f hw pp
a whaw h 1920 ay a h pap
y q y a af f a. Ahgh hypfla-
a a ha, pp a awa ha h
away a ha pap y a qy a.
I h f fla (gay fag p) a a -
a wh h ay a p ag, g w
y a ag wh ay h a.
A f f w h a wg p wh h
agh. O h, hy w h a a
gh a. Th a SEK 1, whh
h pa f wh a wy- . H g f -a
a hag. O f h wa f 197. I
197, a -a a 0 p , whhay p a a f a SEK 19. N y wa
h a f h wa a pa a .
A wh a , h a w . Hw pp w h
a ay p wha pp hy ha. I
h p f g g, h p f pap y (h
a) fag?
The strong performance of gold since the turn of the millennium has
caused many investors to question todays high gold price level. While
gold is at a historical high against the US dollar, history shows that
during certain periods, the price of gold has been far more expensive
relative to other assets in this case, equities.
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22
Macro-driven stock market ahead
Record earnings may surprise the market
Low valuations provide support
F a g , N a ha p w
pay p w a h z .
A p, h a ay f z
p. I y ha h a a
h h a fh w a
h y aa. Fay, w
h w w aa h a f,
ay affg a pfa. Ia, w
xp h f hf a aay pa
a : h ag . Eag, , a af-
f y a p. W h ha
ay ga h a phag aag
a fi a w pay a p
a pfa h g h.
Happy, GLEI a p wa a p flw f
ga h x fw h. P h g-
a aa, w f g a, pay -
y ya . Hw, w h wa ha h w
pay wwa aj fa f h
ga w a w xpg fa appa a ha wwa ay wh a w.
O h wh, pa p f h h qa f 2012
w agg. Ia, hy a a wwa
201 ag fa. Hw, pa
aga hw a p ay ff w -
a wh . Oa ag ya -
a pa h p p p. Th f
h pa aagg ww ag
a a ag a h ay jfy
hgh ha aa.
Af a wa 2012 w xp a p f a-
y 1 p x ya. Th w a w a-
g. I jg, fw ay a
h a faa , g ga
h x fw h ay p. Ga
fi a ha wh fa f
201 pay ffi gg p a
pfa.
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May
-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May
-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Actual Enskilda 320
+/- 1 StDev bandOct-12 update
Sep-12 update
The chart shows the performance of the Enskilda 320 index of 320
equities traded on Nordic stock exchanges and forecasts of future
performance based on a historically normal correlation with the
expected trend of leading indicators in OECD countries.
Focusing on macro trends and earnings
investment outlook - december 2012
S: SEB Ea
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Sweden Nordic countries
S: SEB Ea
The chart shows earnings growth in per cent (adjusted for nonrecur-
ring items) for listed companies in the Nordic countries and in Sweden.
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23
Th ya, ag a a h a a 2007. Nx
ya w xp w ag. Cpa ha a
gh h aa h, a
ha fa. Vaa f pa pag ag a
-f a a w. O h pa 20 ya, h aa-
ha y w 199/9, wh h y 10-
ya Swh g wa 9 p , a
af h Lha Bh ah h a f 200.
Cha a gwh h pa 1 ya ha -
gfiay h gwh f N pa
g h a p. F ha a a, a gwh
aj a pa ha ga a
y gg , y Cha. Ahgh h
ha hp pfi, g h pa ya a ag xp
h Ch a ha aay a ga fa
, ay pp ha fa a -
ha ag Cha. Tay w ( h h
a Cha) ha Cha p f a a-
a. Ca w f g gwh Cha, pay
g a f aj a pa a -y xp, ay h a fa
aga. S h xp Cha ay gfiay
ag ha 10 ya ag, w ha ay w Ch
gwh a ha pp (whh h
ap gwh a aa pp) w ga
a faa f h ha. B f Cha fy -
aa gwh, ag p- a
gag g aa wh a
pa a a , h f w-
ag N pa w hf wa h
a g a hah a.
T a, w ha aa f N q a
ay p. Dg h gg p,
h ag ha aga hw g w
, a N pa ha
aa h. Tay ha fi
fa f a hap p pfi g 201, h
p h ga gh . Lw aa, w a-
a , ga pay ay a a f -
y faa 201 a a
a pf f q; a ha w a
f h xp ga aa.
N q
investment outlook - december 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
Earnings
The chart shows the total earnings in millions of euros at 213
large Nordic companies that have been listed since 2002 or
longer.
S: SEB Ea
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012E
2014E
EV/EBITA
The chart shows valuations of operating earnings at Nordic listedcompanies on a debt-free basis (enterprise value/earnings before
interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation = EV/EBITA).
S: SEB Ea
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World economy moving in the right direction, but
sluggishly
Asia, emerging markets, cyclical companies the
most attractive
Chinas stock market has lagged: time for a
recovery
O h wh, w a ha pf faay
2012. Th ya ga gy, af pag Mah
h a fla. W a Epa p,
wa a a a ay a Cha f
gwh pa a h a a g
h pg, wh fag ha p a a q. I Ag
a Sp, app a aga a a
. Th g f h h w p a fig-
a hp f fh f h US Fa R
a h Epa Ca Ba. I O, a g f ha-
p xhag ga pa -
ay a a fiaa a pay aw a g
f a pwg.
S Jaay 1, h MSCI W Ix a ha
ga ha p . May Epa xhag
ha pf gy, pay Gay, p-
pag G a Pga ha a p
p p. US pa hgg ag a
h ya O. Cpay p ha
p xpa pay h fa
hgy (IT) wgh w h a. Uay
a h US pa a hg h a.
I Aa a h gg a, ha y
g ay pa. Hg Kg p 17 p fa h
ya a Ia a f 22 p a . Cha, h
h ha, ha gg a ha p ha fa. U
p, h Shagha S Exhag ha fa y p h
ya, h wwa ha h pa h
a h Ch a ha ga g.
Th h qa pay pg a wa x.
Gay pag, a fig w wa f h w
pa wh ag a a xp. Fh
qa pay fa w a, a ga-
, ag wwa f ag
a. O a ga a, pa ag a xp
gw y 12 p 201, wh h f g-
g a wha hgh a 1. p . Aa
ag a a a 10 p xp gwh,
wh Epa a a a hgh (11 p ). Aa
a gg a a a h p, wh Ka, Tawa,
Ia a Thaa ag a wh ag axp a y 1-2 p x ya. Vaa
w a aa, wh ga q ag a
p-ag (P/E) a f 12 xp 201 a-
g. Th US p p h fig wh a P/E a f 12., wh
Ep ag a 11 a Japa 11. x ya p-
j ag. Eq gg a a a h
hap, wh a P/E a f 10.
Cya w hw ha aag ag gwh
201. Cpa h , hgy a
fiaa w gw fa (+22, +1 a +1 p ,
py) pa h a g agy
a xp hw ag gwh f a f 1 p . I
Hesitation creates long-term opportunities
investment outlook - december 2012
Germany and India are examples of countries with top-performing
stock markets so far in 2012. The Greek stock market has shown surpris-
ing strength since bottoming out last spring. Share prices of Chinese
listed companies have been weak, opening up opportunities ahead.
S: Ma
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a, h f a gy, phaaa
a a xp hw w ha aag a-
g gwh.
Th f Aa, gg a a
ya pa. Aa pay ha pf
aazgy w a h ya, wh Cha g a
h aa gap w h US a Cha ah x-
. I g ha h
ha O, pg p pp
Cha. Cha P/E a f 201 9., wh xp a-
g gwh f 10 p . Ma a h
a a p, a a a xp
Sp a O p a gh p f Cha.
Th ahp hag Bjg g N a aha w w pay ha a a a f pa
f a a f f gwh a. Cha -
- gwh ay ha af pg pwa
f ya, w w pa y g gwh pa
p. Gay pag, h Ch ha y
h a a w pa h pa .
Wh hy ay f fi a f
h a afy , h w a f a hap -
a pa p.
A f Cha, w a ha a p w f --
p Aa wh aj gwh pa, h a
Ia, Maaya a Thaa. Ra a Ea (-
g Ca) Ep a a aa aa;g h w aa a hgh ag gwh, ha
f h g h pa f a ga qy pf.
Ahgh Ep p a, a a y
pa a fi w p a pp.
I a w-p g, wh h - f
h Ep h ha a a f hahy
(Gay, h N) h h. I h a
, a aa fa pg, a
w-aag aa pa fi fhag a za pag f h a hgh-gwh
gg a.
Rgh w w a a wa-a- a. Th w
g h gh , gghy. Th w
y wy hag, wh g fy -
g. I ga fi h aay
f h y. Th gg ay a h
p f Ep a h US. Th aag f y Ha
Say ag h US a a ay a w a a p
h gwh h fia qa f 2012, h h
ha h a pp x ya a f h a aag aa.
Th ay a h US pa a
h ay faa h a, P
Oaa aay ha a aga a wh ha-
g. Th ga a f h fia ff. A
ag hw h fa g gga
fiaa p ah . Ohw h
Aa pp w fa -ghg h f
f ax h a xp x ya, whh w h p-
a p j a gg .
T a, a pay ga ay a hgh f h y, h a f pa a a
h pa f Cha y. Lg- fa a a
a a hwg gwh, a a a a
paay a, h a f hgh ha
p. Wh h ha w a
gh w, w a hg ay p. W
f g pp f a p a h
p fa pa.
Ga q
investment outlook - december 2012
Emerging markets have higher expected
growth than the US and the world
average. Germany also appears very at-
tractive in terms of future earnings, with
low valuations. In China expectations
are low, reflecting the countrys weak
stock market performance this year. This
leaves room for upside surprises, which
may have an impact on the market.
S: Ma
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Th Cy M a qaa g . I a-
ay f a g f aay fa f h f-
wg fa a pa:
1. Eag gwh
2. Eag
. R qy
. Ma aa
. D
Bh h f fa a y g h ya
2002-2012, wh h ay f ah fa p g-
a hg ha ha . A fa ha ha
ga p a a y
pay ha a a pa h . If a fa ha
ga a ha a a a,
ha x.
I a h aay f ah a fa, w ha
a aay a w h fa h . If
w fa ga xy a , a ha
f f h wg h pay wg a w.
F h a, ga a ha a h -
aa w aa h .
Th w pa ww wh a a ap-
aa xg EUR 00 a y a a
x aay gaa. Cpa a a ah
h a ah fa, h a f ah pay fa
a a p y a a . O g a pay , w a a a y a a a-
wgh aag f a pa wh h a . Th
a y h a h .
W ha a h a, a-
. I h way, w a a ap h xp
a a. Th f pp wh
qaa faa a a f ag
a g h a f pf aa-
.
The Country Model
investment outlook - december 2012
A companys earnings, its growth and valuation and the markets expectations are factors that af-
fect its stock market performance. It is thus relevant to stay updated on how these factors evolve,
both in absolute terms and in relation to other companies. In light of this, in 2012 SEB Investment
Strategy looked closely at a number of factors that have historically proven to be good guides tostock market performance. Based on this, we have also designed an allocation model, the Country
Model, whose purpose is to support the management of global equities.
Landmodellen
Kvantanalys
Mikroekonomi
Bolag Land
Ranking
Marknadssyn
SEB House View
Fundamentalanalys
Macroekonomi
Tema Land
Recommendation
Exposure
Product
The Country Model
Quantitative analysis
Microeconomics
CompaniesCountry
Ranking
Market outlook
SEB House View
Fundamental analysis
Macroeconomics
Theme Country
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W ha hw a pf h ga qy a
w ha pf f ha y ag fh Cy M g 2012.
Sy-fi p f h pf aa h ga
a (MSCI W AC) a 2 p aa
h p fi h Cy M (qay wgh).
O h fi May f ah h, h Cy M p-
a. If h y ag ha hag, h a p
a aa f h pf.
O N 1, h pf wa p 9.07 p f h ya,
wh h ga a wa p .2 p a
Swh . A x f 2.79 p f h ya
ga a a y g , g hpaay w h pf ha a a
ha x. Whh h ya a -
, g gh qaa
aay a h aag f ga q.
Th Cy M
investment outlook - december 2012
S: Bg
Ranking Country Comments
Nway Hgh f a aa a
Ia Hgh f qy
3 Ty Hgh f ag a a aa
Ranking Country Comments
4 Gay Hgh f ag a a aa
6 Ra Hgh f a aa
Cha Hgh f a aa
Ia Hgh f qy, w f 4 US M f fa
5 UK M f fa
Sw Hgh f , w f ag gwh
8 Spa M f fa
5 Baz Lw f ag gwh, ag a
6 Japa Lw f ag gwh, ag a qy
S: SEB
Top three
Rankings for major markets
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Corporate bonds go from fantastic to good
Major OECD central banks continue quantitative
easing
Norwegian and Swedish central banks take key
interest rates in opposite directions
Corporate bond yields lower going forward
but better than government bond yields
Y a ay y fla a gwh x-
pa. Hgh xpa a g y a w
xpa a y fa a ww. F
a ya, a a ha ay apa
a. Th Epa Ca Ba (ECB) ha a qy
a h ag y, h US Fa R (F) ha p-ha g a gag-a , a h
Ba f Japa (BJ) ay wag h y (JPY) wh
yg a y ag a.
Ifla ha fag ay 2011, a h a
h w ay a fla
a w . Th a fa gag h h ppf a y p. Egy p ha ff,
a w gg pa
a p a a a py
hgh. I gh f h, ffi g f
wpa a g fla, whh g a
a a.
Th US Fa R, ha y B Ba, ha f-
py a pg a w
201. I xp ga a py w 7 p
(w j p ) a fla a p .
Th F w a y a USD 0 wh f gag-
a 201 a 201, wh g pha a a a a USD a h.
Th f h x pha w a,
whh aff p, g fi a a
a. Lw a a a pay w
h a, ay, a h p. Rg a
a p a ah y fa gg h
wh p fa h US. B aay h a ha
a . Th aag h a ha h US
y w ha-g h fia ff.
Gwh h z w a wa. A a f -
py, hh p fag, wh g-
h g . Th ECB fi a w y a a 0.7 p . Uay a h f
fi y pf f g qy a
afy, a hy p h y Ga w-ya g-
a a ga y, whh a hy a
payg f afy. B h a gh p Gay,
whh xp g a aa wh a
a h a Cha a Sh Aa. Eay h a
h ECB p a w a- pga h
z w a Ogh May Taa (OMT). If h
OMT pga aa, h ECB w a pha
a y g h ay a
app f a ga fiaa a f h EFSF/ESM
a- f. S fa, y ha app, SEB
investment outlook - december 2012
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
US, CPI Europe, CPI Emerging Markets, CPI
S: Ma
Unless there is a surprisingly steep rise in commodity prices, infla-
tion may be even slightly lower on both sides of the Atlantic and
in emerging markets during 2013-2014. Low resource utilisation in
the OECD countries means salary increases should decelerate.
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29
w, Spa w a appa wh x h. Th
a f ECB a a a- f a
a g/pg w wg f h .
I Japa, h y a w a j a z h
fa f, a h BJ w y a ag a-
a pha h g ya.
Ewh Aa, fa f a ha ag f h Ch
y ha a ay, pa y a a
g f p. Dg h a, Cha ay
py ha a a, wh h y a a p . W
h a w hag 201. Gwh Ia,
a Cha, ha wa. GDP gwh w ah
p 201 a .2 p 201. Ifla w fa a 7 p , a a ha a
h y g fi. Ia a a
h fag fla a h f g gwh a
a f a a ay py. Th a -
ag 7 a p a h a f h fi h
qa f 201.
Ng Ba ggg a hag y
Nway. Th y a ay 1.0 p (h a
hag wa Mah 2012), a w xp a a h a
h 201. I Sw, w h Ra w
ag a pah, wg h p a D
( 1 p ) a Fay 0.7 p . A gwg f ay-ff , g py a w fla
xpa 201 p wa Ra a .
I w, Swh g w y ha 0.
p h x w h wh h
z a US w ga y f a 1 p . Cpa wh h w ga ag (BBB-) a x-
p y ha 2. p . Fay, h a
h g wh ghy hgh (hgh y ), whh
w w y ha . p .
Cpa a a. Thy
a faa pfa h pa 12 h. S hgh
y f ha ha f 1-1 p . I
ga ha ga f p -9 p . S
h q whh h a a pa pa. W
w y h a hgh h g
ya, h y pa h
ay. Tha app y a , wh h apa a a a w a f p
a fg. Sw a a f h a wh
gwh pa h aa.
Dg 2012, h ha a a y f pa
x h ay f h , whh w f h
qy a.
Th q whh w a fag a aa wh
p hgh y . O aw . If h ay
aa h a, ha a f
ag h g f a OECD .
I h US, 10-ya Tay a ag a h wy 1900.
Fx
investment outlook - december 2012
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
European HY default rate Estimate
The recessions early in the new millennium and in 2008-2009 caused the bankruptcy rate in the US and Europe to soar. That rate is signifi-
cantly lower today and about the same as in 2007. It is expected to be only slightly higher over the next year. This reflects our forecast of a
slightly stronger global economy in 2013-2014 and the fact that companies are in better financial health than in a long time.
S: SEB0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US HY default rate Estimate
Ep US
S: SEB
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30
Better risk sentiment led to a good quarter for
Equity Long/Short...
while Credit Long/Short was able to benefitfrom central bank measures
Our focus remains on fleet-footed managers
and market-neutral strategies
Th h qa wa a y a ay h
pa f. I Jy, a w y h w faa
axy a ppha z . R a f
a y a h . Hw, a
Jy Epa Ca Ba (ECB) P Ma Dagh a-
ha h ECB w wha a a
h , fw y a pg f pha
-affl z ha app f fiaapp. Th a ay ha a p
pa a , g h f h f
h qa. Oa, wa a p qa f hg f.
Th HFRX Ga Hg F Ix 1. p wh
h MSCI W Eq Ix .1 p ( EUR). Th
HFRX Eqy Hg Ix pf gh f h g
q a, fw y h HFRX E D Ix.
Sag ha w w N Sh Ba a Mg
Aag. Hw, h wa a aa a away
w f aag. I Ma CTA, ay f h gg
pay p ga hag , wh h x
a 1 p g h p. W w f-
aag wh a f qy a h pfa ha a xp a f a. W
a ag q ag ahgh w a h
g pa D a S C. W a -
g CTA hg a h fi
haa a h a a.
W h hg f a f a ag:
Th agy ha ha a ffi p, wh h ha p
-p f pa faa
a. R ha h y a-ag xp h a ah ha h
h f q, aag wh a hgh xp
q ha fw h a h p a w. Eqy
Ma Na ha ha h ha h agy ha
fa p 2012 (HFRX Eqy Ma Na
Ix USD). R w gay g h
qa, wh aag ha pa a
ag g h qa.
W p ha h a w y
pa p ah ha pay faa.
Th pa h Eqy Lg/Sh agy h
fl-f ag Tag a Vaa N Exp,
wh xp a qy aap wg a
. Maag wh a ga y gg h
g a h h fa ha h wh a -
p h ga f h a. Eqy Ma
Na w y h wha
a p w j aha. If h a a
ay, h agy w pf paay w, a
h a p a a y w .
Fx ag ha ha a ffi qa, wh
gwg pa a hgh ay f fix
ha ha g a. Maag w, a
a, ga a a g h h f hy , wh a a w. Th HFRX Ra
Va x f 1. p ( USD) May a ha
fla h. Maag wh h h a
gay w h qa, h a ha
h qa, wh pa awg.
Maag y f h- y w pay
ha a ffi aha, w pf ag
f h g f h y . Af
ECB P Ma Dagh a a Jy, -
ag ha h ECB a g yg g -
Less impact from politics = better potential
investment outlook - december 2012
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y ppha z (Spa a Iay pa-
a), h y gap w h a h Ep
ha aw. Hw, w ha y ay p, a h ECB a gg fwa a y ha a
aj pa Ra Va ag. O h h f
h Aa a w, a w f qaa ag g
, whh a a pp f h agy
ga f whh p . W a h-
f p wa Ra Va a pay aag
f fix .
Ev Div d DidE D ag gay p pa
h a g, aq a . Hw,
hgh ay a fag ha p h qa
ay pa pp h , a h
HFRX E D Ix 2.7 p ( USD) g h
p, f h May.
Sh h a f, p
ha h f pa w a aga. Lw
a a w gwh gay a ha pa w
y gw hgh aq a ga x, whh
fa Mg Aag. Mawh, pa a fig
agy ha g a a, ag h f
g h aa h. E D aag
wh xpay g xp a q h
ha h pa.
Ma a Tag ag ha h pa
pap g ga , hy ha a h
gg app h. S aag-
ha ha a ga h h
f h ya, a h p fiay pa ff h
qa. Nh, ga w aay ga y
hg. A w a, h a agy y
, whh y h pa
aa. Th a ffi fa -
ag, a h ya CTA ha p ( USD),
pa Ma gay, whh w 0. p .
W ha CTA a Sya Ma g a
pf a hg ha ga a a a
p fia. Th CTA ay gay
ga wa q a ,
p g a US a. Th a-
g h ff g fia a p-ya pf.
Hw, w xp h a wg a a fh,
wh a h fa a pfa.
investment outlook - december 2012
Hg f
STRATEGY INDEX PERFORMANCE % (USD)
Oct-Nov
2012
Q3 2012 2012 YTD 2011 2010
Global Hedge HFRX Global Hedge Fund -0.44 1.45 2.24 -8.87 5.19
Equity Hedge HFRX Equity Hedge 0.33 2.19 3.74 -19.08 8.92
Relative Value HFRX Relative Value Arbitrage -0.57 0.66 2.22 -4.00 7.65
Event Driven HFRX Event Driven -1.01 1.86 3.84 -4.90 1.98
Macro HFRX Macro -0.59 0.94 -1.47 -4.88 -1.73
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Primary markets a substitute for government
bonds
REITs are this years winner
2012 a good year for risk assets
Taa ay h ga a f a a
a a g h h qa f 2012, ahgh
wa w wha a qay a ya--ya a.
F h f ya, h g pfa wa Nh
Aa, wh h US a Caaa h pg hgh a
ay pa 2011. I Aa, pfa wa
wh h p ya, wha h f ay Ep
a a wh wa w, ahgh ay f h ag a
h g aag aa h a ay, ha a ag aa .
A h , aa ay a pp ha
fa wh ffi pp ha gw
2012. Af a f ya f g a ha,
ha h ya h ffi ppy .
I 2012, h ha a f a f 0 p f h
ga aa a f h fw hw
a aa ay hgh h a f -
a pp ha gay hw a ay.
Gg fwa, ay h ag a q a
ha w aa , a ha ha
f h pa h ya. Th ha qz a
f a p pay a fa aa -
. Th fa ha h p gg ha
pay wa h . Maxg
ha ay.
Taay, g a a a a ha -
ha wh app , wh
ay xy w g y ha a a a aa. I a h fig aa
g y pg h y y g-
f h a a a. Hw, gwg a
h a f qay a w ha
pay a ha ay jfi g h a f
h a a pp. Cg ha
investment outlook - december 2012
Liquid markets bolster sales activity
Rl
Activity in the global market for commercial real estate
stabilised during the third quarter of 2012 but was
down somewhat on a quarterly and year-on-year basis.
It was mainly the larger and more liquid markets that
continued to attract investment.
S: Ma
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
USD
noillib
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
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33
pp a a a h f h a a
fi pp ha ff fa hgh , fy -
aa ha aa ay ay a haa h y.
I h a f Investment Outlook(ph Sp
11, 2012), w h gwg h
a a h ya. W h hap h
f pa h a a a f
h agy g g fag a a
pa a ga a ag f
hg.
W a h gwg a a xp a
a a (REIT). N y a a-
a y h gay hgh y h pa f-
f (f ga a, a REIT pay a f a a
90 p f h pay axa ), h qy
ap a appa h g f a a xp
ppa p apa f a x p.
Tay REIT p h ag pha y fa f -
a pp. A wh h gwg f a a
, w a f a gwg f REIT f -
g p h a. Ig REIT ha a f
h f ag 2012. O ga REIT x
(GPR W REIT) p a 20 p h ya, pa
a ga q (MSCI W) f a 10 p
a .
Th ya, ha ay h f
a, ay . R app ha fay w -
g h f 2012, ay a ha h
pf w. O xpaa f h ha
ha p fah h
a fi ay w a .
Thy ha hf f g pa
a gg a , whh ha h
a pfa h ya. F h, hy ha
ph fah h a a h q
a. O h q a, hy ha a
ha ay, h g pay h a
, pa wh h a y. Th
f h ha g pfa
y ay -ya h a a, a
a, g pfa y h REIT a, whh
fi f aa . I ha-
a a why a w a a
a ha fa f h x w aw a h
f h ya, h ag a paa -a f a fia pp.
Ra a
investment outlook - december 2012
As the REIT market has grown in 2012, it has also turned in a strong
performance in both absolute and relative terms. One global REIT
index (GPR World REIT) is up almost 20 per cent, compared to a rise
in global equities (MSCI World) of about 10 per cent.
Although risk appetite has generally been suppressed since April,
risk assets have performed well this year. High yield corporate
bonds, equities and REITS are among the winners in 2012.
S: Ma
S: Ma
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34
Defensive PE positioning after a strong
performance
Activity remains high, with the aim being to
clarify underlying values
High transaction levels together with good
growth prospects provide long-term potential
I h a f Investment Outlook, w a g
pfa f yg a a (NAV) f h -
x f pa qy (PE) pa. Th g NAV
ga O 2011 a, xp f a fw a wh
h wa a hap a app, h ha -
fl h p f PE pa. Dg h pg,
w aw hw h x f h pa wa f f
hay g pg fiaa ha. Th ay
wa pfa f PE pa wa xpa y
h wa gwh a a fg .
Hw, wh h hap yg NAV, h
w g h fa f h x f -
PE pa. Gay fag --a a pay
a a ay a h a a .
Nh, a h wg, h ha pg w
a a ha aga g. I a
whh h a g f a pay app
h ff f a a aa a.
Dg h a, faa a p-
h g pfa f
a. Sa app h y ha
agy y h ay py p y
ay a a. Th p h z w
y h a f, a h US
h a ha h g a w . Ga
awa f h p ag pa a ha a
, h ffi fg a h z
w y p f . Wh h p -
a ay PE pa, a a pp f
h ha a fi fg f h .
investment outlook - december 2012
High risk with increased confidence
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2011-12-30
2012-01-20
2012-02-10
2012-03-02
2012-03-23
2012-04-13
2012-05-04
2012-05-25
2012-06-15
2012-07-06
2012-07-27
2012-08-17
2012-09-07
2012-09-28
2012-10-19
Index
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
C
orrelation
LPX50TR Index Correlation 1 month Correlation 3 months
During the autumn, the index for listed PE companies hasperformed far better than the broad MSCI World equities
index. The de-coupling of PE shares from financial shares now
looks like it has been reversed, while SEB Listed Private has
has continued to outperform.
Ka: Bg
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2011/12/30
2012/01/20
2012/02/10
2012/03/02
2012/03/23
2012/04/13
2012/05/04
2012/05/25
2012/06/15
2012/07/06
2012/07/27
2012/08/17
2012/09/07
2012/09/28
2012/10/19
Index
LPX50TR Index S&P Financial Index
SEB Listed Private Equity MSCI World AC LOC
While the index for listed PE companies has risen, the one-
and three-month rolling correlation with the broad MSCI
World equities index have both fallen. The three-month rolling
correlation is down from 0.9 to 0.63 and the one-month rolling
correlation is down to 0.42.
S: Bg
S: Bg
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7/30/2019 Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible
35/39
35
May PE pa a a ay a ha
g h f . A a a-
a aag w apa, whh a a y ha f aag h a a. Th p
fl h qa f a a a pa qy
ag wh h a f pa -f a. Th
x f PE pa, LPX0 Ta R, p 22 p
a h ya, wh a 20 p f
h aa pfa May.
Th a ha pgy a p pa w-
. Th VIX ay x ha ag a ha w
f , whh gh a a a
h h . Th p p a -
g hgh aa ha a aag -
h app h h . May PE f
a fy p, g hgh aa a
gg a h a ga h z
a h f a fia ff h US.
Dg h fi haf f 2012, h a a a -
a py ggh x a. Hw, g
h , a awg gap w NAV
h pay a ay a a a aa-
ay. R aa 2011
a ay h ay a. May
p a gg aa h ya w pa a
ya , whh p a ay 201.
Th NAV PE pa ha
h a w w h- ha aag.
I h Sp f Investment Outlook(ph
Sp 11, 2012), w xpa hw awg
NAV h a a g f g fiaa hah. Th
ag h ya 2007-200 ha
a pa, g h ffi pg f -
PE pa. O wpa w ha
ay PE pa a ag p p h
y ga ag f h a a. Th
p hgh a ha ya, wh h
a g afy gg a a a gh
h fiaa p f PE pa. Va a agf a whp g apa a,
wh h y p y ay py
, ha y h g
pfa.
Th ah f apa h pa qy g h
h qa a p pa h w aw g
h qa. Hw, fi h a
a wa y a aag a f h fi
xg USD . I a g agy
pha a f w way appah
aa h a a. F a, g-
g p h z a hapg a w -
whh ay a a a way f
g.
Gwh pp f 201, wh py w
g y, hy ay h
wa g app. G SEB fa f
h a f h x w h, pp f
PE pa a g. Th -ya ha a
a f h x f PE pa pa h
MSCI W Ix f ga q 1., whh a p-
a f h a a a -fy a.
B h a a apayg ha pa, a f w
a h ha aa a h pa ya, h a f h aag 2 p .
Apa f h h- f a , h -
p g pp f g-
a aaag f a a a g fia
qa y g PE f. M a gwh
pp gh wh a g a ay a
w f h a a. Wh ay PE pa ha
h --a a, h f aa
a yg NAV ha h a a hag ha w
aa w apa.
investment outlook - december 2012
Pa qy
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7/30/2019 Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible
36/39
36 investment outlook - december 2012
Historic price differential for oil
Good potential but no rise in precious metals
Grains still too expensive
M ha pf ay h a.
Wh ha a py ay a, pay f
p a a a, ay a y p a
w w ha hy w a h f h . W
a h ga y ha wgh p w.
Dg h a, p (B) ha fla w
USD 10 a 11/a a a h wg a a USD 110/
a. Ag ha fa f a p ga -y h, w p w a a a
ya f w. Hw, h a f hap p -
, wh h g a fag p. Gpa ,
ay w Ia a Ia, a fa ha a a a
g p. Hw, a ag ppy ha w a y
fag wh a y ha g w ha
xp a fag p. S, h fa ha
h a Sa Aaa p a USD 0-100/a
aa a aa g w h .
Dg h a, h ppy wa ag ha h -
a. Th pa a Lya
p aay a w ay a p-fl
p apay, Iaq ha a a p
a xp. Fh, h p a p
f gh h US ( xa f p-ag
ha fa) ha x xpa. Th a x-
p way f xag , a p f a a USD 0/
a a f aa ag.
A p h a ag p ffa ha a w
B (Nh Sa) a W Txa Ia (WTI) . Th
ffa ha g fla w USD a 20/a,
wh B g xp. A h wg, a USD
2, a h hgh. Th a a f xpaa f h
p ffa. WTI p Chg, Oaha, whh
ha a p ffi pp apay. Th f-
fa ha w a a a f p
Nh Sa p j wh h aaa, a ff ha w pa .
I Sp, a a ag h ay h ya,
y a ff pa f h w a
ag a a ha ag f h Ch y.
Hw, p qy a a a w aay a h
a hy w f h ay, a h hgh ha
h w p 2010. O a Sp wa ha
a a ha h ga pa h a
a a -ya pp, a w a g h w.
Cha, whh a f a gfia ha f ga a
p (0-0 p ), a pa paa h
fa. C a a a p ha g f-
whh h Ch y w ha a ha f
ag, g a f Cha pp
fa a ha h f a ha-ag a.
Economic upturn vital to commodity prices
The above chart shows the trend in WTI and Brent oil prices over
the past five years. As indicated, the difference in prices is at a
historic high.
S: Ma
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7/30/2019 Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible
37/39
37
Ahgh w a g a g y Cha,
w ha a a y h ffi f
p y p 10 p ya. Hw, f a -aa ay a a p, a a fi
a p Cha w .
M a p a w ha h aga f
p. N p wh h ag gap aga
f p, whh h w h p
f , a a p hapy a
p . Hw, pp ag a a ag a
p , whh a xpa pa y h -
g ay a ppy. C pp
a a a h-ya w, ahgh Ch a fay
ag ( ag ha a g a ww).
Sh Ch p a p p, pp w qy py, whh pay a
pp p jp p pa (a a 0 p
pay). Sa Ch pp p a a -
p US hg a w y pp p.
Expa f pwf a f h US Fa
R a Epa Ca Ba f p a p
Ag a ay Sp. Wh h a w a-
, p a a, h wa f h a.
May ha pay g-ag
. Th a w a w h y faa
p a, wh pwf a a a, w a
a a ah gfia g ay. W
a a g f wa ha p a a g
h a. Hw, a a ha, a
f h a f h pa w ya , g a -
p ha h hapy a -ya pp.
T Sh Afa , wh a
ha a gfia ppy p, fh f h
ay, whh pg ha y a fa gfia ha f ga p a p. F
pa, h ha 7 p . Ahgh w a y
h ha, h a Sh Afa ha
a w ay.
W xp p a p ay hag a
ya f w. F a hap p, fla xpa
w y ha a h US a w ha
wa. F p a pa a paa,
ga a a a a a pa paa, a
0 p f p h a y pa-
f g a paa f p g.
I Sp, w ha h a p -
ay ga p ha a a ha p
w y a. S h, p ha fa -10
p , a wh w f a ap, w xp
p 10-20 p w a ya ha ay. A h
f x wah fa, ga p h
a p.
A f fag aga p ga, h wah
away a fa a ha ay p. B
h fa w aaa gg a wah
g h g w, ha , N a
xp p h a, whh pp faf fag p. O fa ha gh p a hap fa
p h h ha y a w,
pay f az (), a f ya a. Maz a
ya a p ay hf fla h h -
, w xp fag p h g .
Th f h Ch y ag a ha ag ha
a, a h US a a ha
ay a x xpa. Th a pa fa-
f y a gg fwa. Cha
a gwg ha f ga y p, a
f h y h a, ha w aff -y p. Cha gg a af f pw a h
ay aa wh h, w gwh h
Cha a gay w aa wha 201, whh
h y p.
investment outlook - december 2012
C
As the chart indicates, the price of gold has been in a consolida-
tion phase for about the past two years. However, in a ten-year
perspective, the upward trend has been especially strong.
S: Ma
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7/30/2019 Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible
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38
The traditional reserve currencies are weighed
down by problems in their countries
whereas alternative currencies are backed
by well-managed economies
Among the latter are the Norwegian krone and
emerging market currencies
Th ga fg xhag (FX) a ha y
haa y a ay, whh a p
ha a a ha a. Wh fl-
a w a h pa f a 200 a
2007 wa a ffi p hag -
a xhag a w y g .
Hw, ay a a a ayhgh pay a wh h y ha
a h f h p fiaa a
aa ya. Th aa ha a FX
a pay xpay a a h
xp a , whh ha p
ay.
F a g , a g g f h FX a ha
ga apa , wh ha agy
g aa h aj h US
a, y, a Bh p (USD, JPY, EUR a GBP).
Capa ha flw f h a a
a y wh w-aag -, h a h Swh a a Nwga , a w
a h y f Aaa a Caaa. G
aa a pa p, ag wh -
a pp g h z a h US, h
h a a y g f h FX a hgh
away ag .
By a a, pag ay w p-
p ga app f fiaa a h
z a US. Th ha h EUR p f w
a ha h h Epa Ca
Ba (ECB) ah Ogh May Taa
(OMT) -phag pga a h z
p wa a ga, g
pa f a ag ha ay ay 201.B a h a , ay faa p p
a f -h , pay y wa -
aa p. Th a a y f h
ag y h z, Fa.
Mawh, h h f h Aa, p gw-
g pa a Wahg ah a g a
a a pg a ax a x ya (h
fia ff), whh w ph h y a -
. Th Cga Bg Offi pj a 0. p
a GDP 201 f h fia ff a, -
pa SEB fa f ghy 2 p gwh (a
fa fiaa ghg). A g a h f a fia ff
p, h EUR/USD a y a a a 1.0
h USD pay wa wha f h
f h ya f US g a ha p.
I a a h US g fiaa p
w ha a p way, wh h a f
w pa a h z ga p,
whh w wa h . O h f 201, w
h xp h EUR pa aga h USD, a h
xhag a x a h a 1.2.
Th GBP a JPY ha a aay w a -
. B h a w ffg f
g a a wa . Mawh,h Ba f Ega a h Ba f Japa p
a hghy a ay py haa y x-
y w g y a a a-
h a pha. I gh f h, h pp f
h a a ga.
Tay h JPY aay xp, h wa
aga h x . Th a
agy f h Sw fa (CHF). Hw, h GBP a-
g a fay a aa g- aga h
h EUR a USD. A h a , h UK a wa -
y. Bh y ggg aga g haw
investment outlook - december 2012
Separating the wheat from the chaff
-
7/30/2019 Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible
39/39
a a. I Ag, h y p
ag a fi . I ay h ay
g- -aag wa a af Bh xp, h GBP pa aga h EUR a
w a h USD. Th z a f a 0 p
f Bh xp.
Af ay, h SEK aga gh aga
h aj . O a ha h z
g ha fy a y h
ECB OMT pga ( a), whh ha w h
p h a gh aga ay h
aj . Ah a ha h Swh y
ha w gfiay h pa fw h, af g
ag a a g pa pay pa h z
h pg a ay .
Pay f h a, fg paa ha -
h SEK ag pa: g SEK wh h
y wg. Wa gwh, wh pj -
fla Sw fa w h Ra ag f 2 p
a -ya pp, ha f xpa f a
h p a h w a p, whh ha a
wgh w h SEK.
B Sw y j ag ag pa-
; fg pf a pa, a hy hp a
h SEK f fiaa a w. Mawh,
ay Swh pay pa a w a fia-
a ha a hay wgh
h SEK a g FX hg a ha ag fg xhag
a aa. O fa ha Swh xp a
w z h ppy w ha h SEK ha
wa wha a w y wh ag h
hg a f h fg y xp, ahgh h
ay a g wa xp a p.
O h ga y aa aga whh SEB -
w happ ay 201 Swh xp w a
apy, whh h a fa h SEK. Sw a f h fw a wh g
faa h f f a ay aa g
g, a a p a a pag f GDP a ag
a p. U h z ,
Sw a a a .
Th SEK h ha a g ha f g a h
ghy g . Th a a ga x-
f h Nwga (NOK), whh SEB w h
y wh h pa appa gg fwa.
I a xy g faa
Nway a hgh gwh ha Epa , a
hgh y a f Nway h a f 201.
Oh wh pa appa a f
h gg a (EM) ph. Thy a p w
p a h qa ay. Th pp f h -
a faa, f a a. L h Swh a
Nwga a h OECD y
( a), EM fi wh ga
wh g a f aa h aa a-
j .
Dff a a gwh w h
EM a OECD a a ay h aaag
f EM . Tha h a
a/ pa h US, Cha, h z h
M Ea ha app h fiaa a,
ag a flgh hgh-qy (h OECD hay
h). O fa ha h EM a a gp w
appa y ghy p aga h USD h x
12 h.
C
After sizeable depreciations against the euro
during the financial and economic crises of 2008-
2009, both the Norwegian and Swedish currencies
have appreciated significantly against the euro.
The SEK, which has weakened this autumn as the
result of an unexpectedly sharp economic decel-
eration in Sweden, has good potential to bounce
back after a while. Meanwhile, in SEBs view, the
NOK is the industrial country currency with the
greatest appreciation potential going forward.
S: Ma