Inventory Approaches to Forest Baselines: MAV Bottomland

Hardwoods Case Study

James E. Smith and Linda S. HeathNortheastern Research Station

Durham, NH

Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling ForumOctober 12-15, 2004Shepherdstown, WV

Topics

• Inventory of MAV bottomland hardwood forests

• Carbon estimates from inventory – FORCARB

• 1605b default tables for forestry – average carbon growth and yield

• Uncertainty related to site-to-site heterogeneity

• Case study: Bottomland hardwood estimates for afforestation scenarios

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FIA permanent inventory plots in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain ecoregion

Bottomland hardwoods

Other forest types

MAV Bottomland Hardwoods: Current area and carbon stocks summarized from FIADB and FORCARB

State Survey year

All forest Bottomland hardwoods

Planted bottomland hardwoods

Carbon in bottomland hardwoods

-------- 1000 acres -------- Mt

Arkansas 2002 2,262 931 20 67.2

Illinois 2002 8 8 0 0.5

Kentucky 2002 50 41 2 3.6

Louisiana 2003 3,352 1,425 12 87.6

Mississippi 1994 1,094 1,062 19 65.4

Missouri 2001 155 111 2 8.8

Tennessee 1997 122 119 0 7.0

7,043 3,697 56 240.1

Change in bottomland hardwoods between two successive surveys

State/

Survey Year

Natural

Regeneration Planted

1000 acres

Arkansas

1995 1,850 17

2002 911 20

Louisiana

1991 2,891 34

2003 1,413 12

FORCARB: Regional and National Estimates of Carbon in Forest Ecosystems and in Harvested Wood

Growth

Removals

Litterfall,Mortality Treefall

Harvestresidue

Humification

Decomposition

SOIL

DOWNDEADWOOD

FORESTFLOOR

ATMOSPHERE

STANDINGDEAD TREES

HARVESTEDCARBON

BIOMASS(Live Vegetation)

LANDFILLSENERGY

Imports/Exports

PRODUCTS

Mortality

Recycling

decay

processing

burning

disposal burning

burning

decay

decay

Growth

Removals

Litterfall,Mortality Treefall

Harvestresidue

Humification

Decomposition

SOIL

DOWNDEADWOOD

FORESTFLOOR

ATMOSPHERE

STANDINGDEAD TREES

HARVESTEDCARBON

BIOMASS(Live Vegetation)

LANDFILLSENERGY

Imports/Exports

PRODUCTS

Mortality

Recycling

decay

processing

burning

disposal burning

burning

decay

decay

Inventory data, forest growth models, or state-level aggregate data

Process or empirical models to simulate specific carbon pools or transfer between pools

Based on:

&

Condition B = Nonforest Land Use

Condition A =Forest Land Use

Old 1/5-acre plot

Inventory data from FIA Phase 2 permanent plots

Carbon estimates are based on tree species and dimensions, forest type, volume of growing stock, and stand age.

PRODUCTS

IN USE

Lumber

Plywood

Other panels

Solid wood

Paper

Recycled Paper

LANDFILLS

Landfill wood

Landfill paper

EMISSIONS

Waste wood, decayed or burned with no energy captured

Decay of products & landfills

BURNED FOR ENERGY

Products sent to landfills, recycling, emissions

FORCARB also estimates components of carbon in harvested wood

Biomass from tree data:Examples of generalized equations for 6 select species groups

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

0 20 40 60 80 100

Ab

ove

gro

un

d b

iom

ass

(kg

)

aspen/cottonwood

hardmaple/oak

cedar/larch

Douglas-fir

pine

woodland

dbh (cm)

SOURCE: Jenkins and others, 2003

Forest floor carbon accumulation, decay, and total Example: Southern pines

0

10

20

30

0 25 50 75

Years

Ca

rbo

n m

ass

de

nsi

ty (

Mg

/ha

)

Mixed or unknownage

SOURCE: Smith and Heath, 2002

accumulation

TOTAL

decomposition

Comparison of FORCARB results and available P3 data for South Central Bottomland Hardwoods,

1.2 3.6 6 8.4 10.8 13.2

Forest Floor (C t/ha)

FORCARB from P3

n=3635n=47

Comparison of FORCARB results and available P3 data for South Central Bottomland Hardwoods,

0.6 4.2 7.8 11.4 15

Down Dead Wood (C t/ha)

FORCARB from P3

n=3635n=25

1605b Default Tables for Forestry

Carbon growth and yield tables

Based on regional averages from growth and yield of merchantable volume, FORCARB estimators, and FIA inventory data.

AgeMean

VolumeMean Carbon Density

Live tree Standing dead tree

Under-story

Down dead wood

Forest floor

Soil organic

Total nonsoil

Years m3/ha Metric tons carbon per hectare

0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.9 0

5 0 29.3 0.0 1.7 0.0 1.1 38.0 32

10 11 34.7 1.0 1.7 1.1 2.1 39.6 41

15 23 40.2 1.8 1.7 1.9 3.0 42.2 49

20 39 47.9 2.6 1.6 2.7 3.7 44.5 59

25 54 54.9 3.2 1.6 3.3 4.4 46.3 67

30 71 62.9 3.8 1.6 3.9 5.0 47.6 77

35 87 70.3 4.3 1.6 4.4 5.5 48.4 86

40 104 77.9 4.7 1.6 4.9 6.0 48.9 95

Afforestation of bottomland hardwoods:DRAFT 1605b default table

NOTE: These estimates are undergoing internal review.

Years

0 20 40 60 80

Car

bo

n (

t/h

a)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Afforestation of Bottomland Hardwoods, South Central U.S.

Live trees

Soil organic carbon to 1m

Forest floor

Down dead wood

Understory

Standing dead trees

DRAFT

Years

0 20 40 60 80

Car

bo

n (

t/h

a)

0

50

100

150

200

Afforestation followed by harvest with carbon in harvested wood products - Bottomland Hardwoods, South Central U.S.

Emitted

Emitted with energy capture

Landfills

Products in use

DRAFT

0

100

200

300

0 100 200 300 400 500

Volume (m3/ha)

Liv

e T

ree

Ca

rbo

n (

t/h

a)

Volume to live tree carbon from table relative to plot-level estimates - Bottomland Hardwoods

Estimates from tableEstimates from table

Plot-level estimates

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80 100

Years

Vo

lum

e (

m3 /h

a)

Estimates from tableEstimates from table

Yield predictions from table relative to plot-level estimates - Bottomland Hardwoods

Plot-level estimates

0

100

200

300

0 20 40 60 80 100

Years

Liv

e T

ree

Ca

rbo

n (

t/h

a)

Uncertainty from site-to-site variability for age-based predictions of live tree carbon

Bottomland Hardwoods

Estimates from tableEstimates from table

Plot-level estimates

50 100 150 200

Carbon Stock (t C/ha)

Uncertainty in total carbon stock at 20-years from Monte Carlo simulation - Bottomland Hardwoods

+41%-30%

Years

0 20 40 60 80

Car

bo

n (

t/h

a)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Afforestation of Bottomland Hardwoods, South Central U.S.

Live trees

Soil organic carbon to 1m

Forest floor

Down dead wood

Understory

Standing dead trees

DRAFT

Carbon sequestration in 2015

• 52,700 t C, based on the 51,900 acres identified as planted by the FIADB.

• To achieve 5 Mt C, need to plant 5,830,000 acres now.

• 474,000 t C, possible if 50,000 acres were planted each year from 1991 through 2000.

Carbon sequestration in 2015

• 52,700 t C, based on the 51,900 acres identified as planted by the FIADB.

• To achieve 5 Mt C, need to plant 5,830,000 acres now.

• 474,000 t C, possible if 50,000 acres were planted each year from 1991 through 2000.

63% Live Tree19% Soil18% Other

52% Live Tree24% Soil23% Other

64% Live Tree18% Soil18% Other