international energy outlook 2016global delivered energy in 2040. • renewable energy is the...
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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
International Energy Outlook 2016
For
Schlumberger
June 23, 2016 | Cambridge, MA
By
Adam Sieminski, Administrator
Key findings in the IEO2016 Reference case
• World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 629
quadrillion Btu in 2020 and then to 815 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a 48%
increase (1.4%/year). Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) account
for more than half of the increase.
• The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered
energy consumption; the world industrial sector still consumes over half of
global delivered energy in 2040.
• Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing
by 2.6%/year; nuclear energy grows by 2.3%/year, from 4% of the global
total in 2012 to 6% in 2040. Fossil fuels continue to supply more than three-
fourths of world energy use in 2040.
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 20162
Key findings in the IEO2016 Reference case (continued)
• Among the fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest. Coal use plateaus in
the mid-term as China’s economic shifts to services and worldwide policies
to limit coal use intensify. By 2030, natural gas surpasses coal as the world’s
second largest energy source.
• In 2012, coal provided 40% of the world’s total net electricity generation. By
2040, coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources (including hydro)
provide roughly equal shares (28-29%) of world generation.
• With current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions rise from about 32 billion metric tons (mt) in 2012 to 36
billion mt in 2020, 39 billion mt in 2030, and 43 billion mt in 2040, a 34%
increase relative to 2012.
3Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Many global issues increase uncertainty…
• Economic growth in key economies (China, Brazil, Russia, among others)
• Implementation and strength of climate policies
• Technology improvement rates (both supply and demand)
• Future of nuclear generating capacity
• Geopolitical events
4Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
U.S. OECDEurope
Japan SouthKorea
China India Brazil MiddleEast
Africa Russia
Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population
average annual percent change (2012–40)
percent per year
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy
intensity (E/GDP) improvements moderate this trend
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Coal
Petroleum and other liquid fuels
Natural gas Renewables
Nuclear
Coal with U.S. CPP
Renewables with
U.S. CPP
Share of
total energy
world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Renewables grow fastest, coal use plateaus, natural gas surpasses coal
by 2030, and oil maintains its leading share
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 2015)
6
History Projections2012
33%
30%
28%
22%
23%
26%
12%
17%
4%
6%
22%
16%
0
125
250
375
500
625
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
world delivered energy consumption by end-use sector
quadrillion Btu
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
As total energy consumption grows, shares by end-use sector remain
relatively unchanged
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
7
Industrial
Buildings
Transportation
Share of total
delivered energy
20%21%
54%
53%
25%
26%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Electricity generation
Gross domestic product
world GDP and net electricity generation
percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods)
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Economic growth drives electricity demand; electricity use grows at a
faster rate than other delivered energy, but slower than GDP
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
8
History Projections2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Non-OECD
OECD
Share of
total energy 57%
43%
65%
35%
world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in total energy use
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
9
History Projections2012
Special Focus on
Electricity Markets and Renewables
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 201610
-1
1
3
5
7
9
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Non-OECD electricity
Non-OECD GDP
OECD GDP
OECD electricity
world GDP and net electricity generation
percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods)
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
GDP drives electricity demand growth, but the electricity growth rate
compared to the GDP growth rate becomes smaller over time
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
11
History Projections2012
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
world net electricity generation by source
trillion kilowatthours
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Renewables (with hydro), natural gas, and coal all contribute roughly
the same amount of global net electricity generation in 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
12
Liquids
Other renewables
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydropower
world net electricity generation from renewable energy by source
trillion kilowatthours
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Wind and hydropower each account for one third of the increase in
renewable generation; solar is fastest-growing (8.3%/year)
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
13
Biomass, waste, and
tide/wave/ocean
Hydropower
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Canada Brazil India United States OECD Europe China
renewable net electricity generation by selected country and country grouping, 2040
billion kilowatthours
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Geographically, the scale and fuel mix of renewable generation in 2040
varies widely
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
14
Biomass, waste, and
tide/wave/ocean
Hydropower
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 201615
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Liquid fuels
Coal
Natural gas
36%36%
20%
43%
26%
38%
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
billion metric tons
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Coal remains the world’s largest source of energy-related CO2
emissions, but by 2040 its share declines to 38%
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
16
History Projections2012
Share of
total
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2000 2012 2020 2030 2040
OECD Other non-OECD Non-OECD Asia
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
billion metric tons
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Non-OECD Asia will account for about 60% of the world increase in
energy-related CO2 emissions
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
17
History Projections
For more informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state
Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1
18Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Appendix A:
U.S. solar and wind
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 201619
• wind and solar electricity capacity, the latter including both utility-scale solar and distributed photovoltaic (PV), has experienced rapid growth in recent years, increasing by more than 100% and slightly over 900%, respectively, between 2009 and 2015
• given the recent growth rates in wind and solar capacity and generation, EIA follows these technologies closely and is committed to assuring the quality of its data and projections for these sources through regular internal and external reviews
Source: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/supplement/renewable/
EIA reviews renewable energy costs and historical capacity
to improve projections for U.S. Annual Energy Outlook
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 201620
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Extension of federal investment and business tax credits helps to
drive solar and wind generation capacity in the U.S.
Source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=26492
21
Appendix B:
International liquid fuels markets
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 201622
0 10 20 30 40
OECD Europe
OECD Asia
OECD Americas
Africa
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
Non-OECD Americas
Middle East
Non-OECD Asia
2012
2020
2040
world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption
million barrels per day
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Most of the growth in world oil consumption occurs in the non-OECD
regions — especially Asia
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
23
passenger-miles per capita (left-axis) and GDP per capita (horizontal-axis) for
selected country groupings 2010–40
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Passenger-miles per person will rise as GDP per capita grows; travel
growth is largely outside the OECD
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
24
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
OECD
China
Other
non-OECD Asia
Africa
India
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate
OPEC crude and lease condensate
Other liquids
world production of petroleum and other liquid fuels
million barrels per day
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Liquid fuels supplies from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers
increase through 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
25
History Projections2012
0
10
20
30
40
Middle East North Africa West Africa South America
2012 2020 2040
OPEC crude and lease condensate production
million barrels per day
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
26
0
3
6
9
12
15
Brazil Russia Canada Kazakhstan China OECD Europe
2012 2020 2040
non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production in selected country groupings
million barrels per day
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Increases to non-OPEC oil supplies outside the United States are
primarily from Brazil, Russia, Canada, and Kazakhstan
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
27
0 5 10 15
Gas-to-liquids
Coal-to-liquids
Biofuels
Refinery gain
Natural gas plant liquids
2012
2020
2040
million barrels per day
The largest components of other liquid fuels are NGPL, refinery gain,
and biofuels
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
28Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Appendix C:
International natural gas markets
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 201629
world natural gas consumption
trillion cubic feet
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Non-OECD nations will account for 76% of the growth in natural gas
consumption
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
30
0
30
60
90
120
150
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD Non-OECD
0 5 10 15 20
Other OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
Other non-OECD
OECD Americas
Middle East
Non-OECD Asia
China Other
Other
Other
Other
Iran Saudi Arabia
United States
Russia
world change in natural gas production, 2012–40
trillion cubic feet
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Non-OECD Asia, Middle East, and OECD Americas account for the
largest increases in natural gas production
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
31
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2040 2012 2040 2012 2040
natural gas production by type
trillion cubic feet
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane will become increasingly
important to gas supplies, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada
Note: Other natural gas includes natural gas produced from structural and stratigraphic traps (e.g. reservoirs), historically referred to as
‘conventional’ production.
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
32
China Canada
Shale gas
Other gas
United States
Coalbed methane
Tight gas
LNG capacity additions
billion cubic feet per day
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Liquefaction capacity additions over the 2015-19 time period will
increase global capacity by over 30%
Note: Capacity additions in 2015-19 include projects currently under construction, and represent nameplate capacity,
not adjusted for ramp-up
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates based on trade press
33
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Australia Colombia Indonesia Malaysia United States
Appendix D:
Miscellaneous international
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 201634
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
China
United States with CPP
IndiaUnited States
coal consumption in the US, China, and India
quadrillion Btu
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Of the world’s three largest coal consumers, only India is projected to
continue to increase throughout the projection
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 2015)
35
History Projections2012
0 40 80 120 160
Rest of world
Other non-OECD Asia
India
China
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
OECD Asia
OECD Americas
OECD Europe
2012
2040
world installed nuclear capacity by region
gigawatts
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Virtually all of the growth in nuclear power will occur in the non-OECD
regions; China accounts for 61% of world nuclear capacity growth
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
36
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
2012 2020 2030 2040
world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Non-OECD Asia accounts for 55% of the world increase in energy use
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
37
Other non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia
OECD OECD
40
50
60
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Non-OECD
OECD
carbon intensity of energy consumption, 1990-2040
kilograms CO2 per million Btu
Adam Sieminski, Schlumberger
June 23, 2016
Projected carbon intensity of energy use (CO2/E) declines through 2040
in both OECD and non-OECD; non-OECD CO2/E rose over 2000–12
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
38
History Projections2012