international energy outlook 2013 · 2013-09-09 · key findings of the international energy...
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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
International Energy Outlook 2013
For U.S. Senate Briefing August 12, 2013 | Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator
Key findings of the International Energy Outlook 2013
2 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
• With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Half of the increase is attributed to China and India.
• Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing energy sources, each increasing by 2.5 percent per year; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040.
• Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook, supported by increasing supplies of shale gas, particularly in the United States.
• Coal grows faster than petroleum consumption until after 2030, mostly due to increases in China’s consumption of coal, and slow growth in oil demand in OECD member countries.
• Given current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46 percent by 2040, reaching 45 billion metric tons in 2040.
Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend
3
average annual change (2010-2040) percent per year
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
U.S. OECDEurope
Japan SouthKorea
China India Brazil MiddleEast
Africa Russia
Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Non-OECD Asia accounts for 60 percent of the world increase in energy use
4
world energy consumption quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
100
200
300
400
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia
History Projections
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
By 2040, China’s energy use will be double the U.S. level; India’s a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth
5
energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
China
United States
India
History Projections 2010
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
107
55
220
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption
6
world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Liquids (including biofuels)
Renewables (excluding biofuels)
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
History Projections 2010
34%
28%
22%
11%
5%
28%
27% 23%
7%
15%
Share of world total
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
World petroleum and other liquids production
7 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Rest of non-OECD
Russia Rest of OECD Canada United States
OPEC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
World natural gas production
8 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
trillion cubic feet
Note: The MENA region consists of the Middle East and North Africa countries Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
MENA
Russia
Rest of OECD Canada
United States 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
China
Rest of non-OECD
World coal production
9 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
billion short tons
Note: Indonesia accounted for 72 percent of the total coal production in Other non-OECD Asia in 2010, rising from 52 percent in 2000. Throughout the projection period, Indonesia continues dominating the region's coal production. Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Other non-OECD Asia Australia
United States
China
World
India
0
3
6
9
12
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
World net hydropower and other renewable electricity generation
10 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
trillion killowatthours
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
China
Rest of OECD
Canada United States
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Brazil India
Rest of non-OECD
World net nuclear electricity generation
11 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
trillion killowatthours
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Russia
OECD Europe
Other Asia Japan
United States 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
India
Rest of World
China
Industrial sector energy consumption in China
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China industrial sector energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Liquids
Renewables Natural gas
Coal
Electricity
Total
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Gross output curves shape China’s industrial coal and liquids use
13
China gross output for iron production
real 2005 dollars (MER)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
China gross output for chemical production
real 2005 dollars (MER)
Source: Oxford Industrial Model
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Liquid Fuels Markets
14 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
OPEC market share grows after 2025
15
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OPEC petroleum liquids
OPEC petroleum liquids
Nonpetroleum
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
world liquids production million barrels per day
History Projections 2010
62
49
5
50
35
2
Non-OPEC petroleum supply growth is concentrated in five countries
16
non-OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Brazil Canada Kazakhstan United States Russia OECD Europe Mexico/Chile
2010 2040
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Production profiles of the three most petroleum-rich countries in the Middle East are uncertain
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Source: EIA, IEO2013
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Country 2011
2040
Past as prologue
Iraq success
Iran success
Iran & Iraq success; Saudi Arabia takes the rest
2040 production range
Saudi Arabia 11.1 15.5 10.2 13.8 6.0 9.5
Iran 4.2 5.9 3.9 8.1 8.1 4.2
Iraq 2.6 3.7 11.0 3.3 11.0 7.7
Other Middle East OPEC
7.5 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 _
Total Middle East OPEC
25.4 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.8 _
liquids production in Middle East OPEC in four Reference case scenarios million barrels per day
Natural Gas Markets
18 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Non-OECD nations account for over 70 percent of the growth in natural gas consumption
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world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD Non-OECD
billion cubic feet per day
330
275
220
165
110
55
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East, and the United States account for the largest increases in natural gas production
20
1
2
5
5
6
10
12
16
19
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Other OECD
Canada
Australia/New Zealand
Non-OECD Central and South America
Africa
Non-OECD Asia
United States
Middle East
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
growth in natural gas production 2010-2040 trillion cubic feet
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Electricity Markets
21 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
In electricity generation, renewables and natural gas are the fastest growing sources, but coal still fuels the largest share in 2040
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0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
world electricity generation by fuel billion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Coal
Natural gas
Hydropower
Nuclear
Other renewables Liquids
History Projections
40%
22%
36%
24%
China accounts for more than 40 percent of the global net increase in nuclear capacity
23
world nuclear electricity generating capacity, 2010 and 2040 gigawatts
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0 50 100 150 200
Japan
South Korea
India
Russia
Other non-OECD
OECD Americas
OECD Europe
China
2010
2040
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
24 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Non-OECD Asia accounts for over 70 percent of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
25
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
History Projections
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Non-OECD Asia Other Non-OECD OECD
Coal continues to account for the largest share of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection
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0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons
Coal
Natural gas
Liquid fuels
2010 History Projections
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
There are many issues that increase uncertainty…
27 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
• Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States, Europe, and China
• The timing of Japan’s full recovery from the impacts of the 2011 nuclear disaster at Fukushima
• Social unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential for unrest elsewhere
• Shale gas and shale oil production potential
• OPEC market share decisions
• Climate policies
For more information
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U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Supplementary Slides
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013 29
IEO2013 includes 4 alternative cases that examine the sensitivity to different GDP growth and oil prices
30 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
• Reference case
– World GDP increases by 3.6 percent per year between 2010 and 2040 and energy consumption rises to 820 quadrillion Btu (quads) in 2040
– Oil prices reach $163 (Brent in 2011 dollars) and the OPEC share of liquids production is 43% in 2040
• High Economic Growth case – World GDP increases by 4.0 percent per year and consumption grows to 946 quads in 2040
• Low Economic Growth case – World GDP increases by 3.1 percent per year and consumption grows to 733 quads in 2040
• High Oil Price case – Oil prices rise to $237 per barrel as a result of high non-OECD demand and the OPEC share
is 38% in 2040
• Low Oil Price case – Oil prices are $75 per barrel as a result of low non-OECD GDP growth and the OPEC share is
51% in 2040
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily as the global economy expands and the call on OPEC rises
31
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Low Oil Price
High Oil Price
Reference
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Brent crude oil price paths real 2011 dollars per barrel
History Projections 2011
$237
$163
$75
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand but per capita use is still below OECD levels
32
world energy consumption quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OECD
OECD 0.20
0.05
0.07
0.20
History Projections 2010
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
2010
2010
2040
Brazilian and U.S. biofuels and Chinese CTL account for nearly 65 percent of the total increase in nonpetroleum supplies
33
world nonpetroleum liquids production in 2010 and 2040 million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Biofuels
Coal-to-liquids
Gas-to-liquids
Other
Other
Brazil United States
China
Other Qatar
2010
2040
2040
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East
34
OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Middle East North Africa West Africa South America
2010 2040
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Shale oil and gas have the potential to dramatically alter world energy markets
35 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
map of basins with assessed shale oil and gas formations, as of May 2013
Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI
Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources
36 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Shale oil Shale gas
Rank Country Billion barrels Rank Country Trillion cubic feet
1 Russia 75 1 China 1,115
2 United States 58 2 Argentina 802
3 China 32 3 Algeria 707
4 Argentina 27 4 United States 665
5 Libya 26 5 Canada 573
6 Venezuela 13 6 Mexico 545
7 Mexico 13 7 Australia 437
8 Pakistan 9 8 South Africa 390
9 Canada 9 9 Russia 285
10 Indonesia 8 10 Brazil 245
World total 345 World total 7,299
Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI. Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet.
0
10
20
30
40
2010 2040 2010 2040 2010 2040
Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane are increasingly important to the United States, China and Canada
37
natural gas production trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
China Canada
Shale gas
All other
United States
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
Coalbed methane
Tight gas
Btu or British thermal units, can be used as an energy measurement across different energy sources
38 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013
• One Btu is approximately equal to the energy released in the burning of a wood match.
• One million Btu equals about 8 gallons of motor gasoline.
• One trillion Btu is equal to 500 100-ton railroad cars of coal.
• One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil.