international energy agency agence internationale de l’energie world energy perspectives and...

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

World Energy Perspectives World Energy Perspectives and Consequences for and Consequences for

EuropeEuropeClaude MandilClaude Mandil

Executive Director Executive Director International Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency

FIIA EU-Presidency Lecture SeriesFIIA EU-Presidency Lecture SeriesHelsinki, 3 May Helsinki, 3 May 20062006


Business-as-usual ScenarioBusiness-as-usual Scenario

In the Reference Scenario, based on current trends, global energy demand In the Reference Scenario, based on current trends, global energy demand will rise by 52 % by 2030will rise by 52 % by 2030

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear power

Other renewables

Hydropower


This is NotSustainable for the World nor Europe!


Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020scountries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s

World Energy-Related COWorld Energy-Related CO22 Emissions Emissions

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

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OECD Transition economies Developing countries

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

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OECD Transition economies Developing countries


EU COEU CO2 2 Emissions in the Emissions in the

“Business-as-usual” Scenario “Business-as-usual” Scenario

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

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Power generation Transport Other

1990 = 3 733 Mt

EU emissions will be 9% and 20% above 1990 levels by 2010 and 2030 EU emissions will be 9% and 20% above 1990 levels by 2010 and 2030 respectivelyrespectively


Share of OPEC and CIS in Global Oil Share of OPEC and CIS in Global Oil and Natural Gas Supplyand Natural Gas Supply

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2004 2010 2020 2030

OPEC Share of Oil Supply CIS Share of Natural Gas Supply


Electricity DeprivationElectricity Deprivation

In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still beIn 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity1.4 billion people without electricity


But the future is not But the future is not predetermined…predetermined…


Global COGlobal CO2 2 Emissions in the Reference Emissions in the Reference

& Alternative Scenarios& Alternative Scenarios

Policies that governments are already considering – but have not Policies that governments are already considering – but have not

yet enacted yet enacted –– would cut would cut COCO22 emissions by 16% in 2030 emissions by 16% in 2030

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Mt o

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Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

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Mt o

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Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario


Compact Fluorescent Lamps

LED traffic lights

Super windows & daylighting

Reducing standby power consumption

Efficient information and communication technologies

Energy efficiency offers

substantial energy and greenhouse gas savings at low or negative cost

energy security and reliability benefits

enhanced business competitiveness and social welfare

Energy Efficiency Has A Key Role To PlayEnergy Efficiency Has A Key Role To Play And Is Available In The Short Term And Is Available In The Short Term

High performance buildings

Least life-cycle cost appliances

ABCDEFG

Labelling and certification


Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of COAvoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO22 per Year per Year

CoalCoalCoalCoal Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..

Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..

WindWind Install 200 x current US wind generationInstall 200 x current US wind generation

Solar PVSolar PV Install 1300 x current US solar generationInstall 1300 x current US solar generation

CO2 SequestrationCO2 Sequestration Install 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plantsInstall 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plants

NuclearNuclear Build 140 1-GW power plantsBuild 140 1-GW power plants

Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004

Efficient LightingEfficient Lighting Replace ~95% of incandescence lighting (i.e. phase out)Replace ~95% of incandescence lighting (i.e. phase out)


“We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas

emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction

with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“

-- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué”


1.1. Concrete Measures to Raise Energy Efficiency: Concrete Measures to Raise Energy Efficiency: Limit Standby Power Use to 1-WattA Fuel-Efficient Tire ProgramEfficiency standards for television “set-top” boxesMore Efficient Lighting

2.2. Energy Technology PerspectivesEnergy Technology PerspectivesA new publication providing scenario analysis of the potential of

energy technologies to 2050 How much can different technologies deliver? By when can they deliver? What barriers need to be overcome?

This (and other) work will be considered by G8 Leaders in This (and other) work will be considered by G8 Leaders in the lead up to the Sthe lead up to the St. Petersburg Summitt. Petersburg Summit

The IEA’s Contribution to the Gleneagles The IEA’s Contribution to the Gleneagles Plan of Action (Examples) Plan of Action (Examples)


The EU Green PaperThe EU Green Paper ““A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy”A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy” Identifies six key areas where action is necessary:Identifies six key areas where action is necessary:

Competitiveness and the internal energy marketCompetitiveness and the internal energy market Diversification of the energy mixDiversification of the energy mix SolidaritySolidarity Sustainable developmentSustainable development Innovation and technologyInnovation and technology External policyExternal policy

The Spring European Council and the European Parliament are invited to react to the The Spring European Council and the European Parliament are invited to react to the PaperPaper

The Commission will then table concrete proposals for actionThe Commission will then table concrete proposals for action

Energy security and Energy efficiency Adequate and timely investment Developing a truly internal market


The EU Green PaperThe EU Green PaperThe Proposals could be improved by: The Proposals could be improved by:

Norms and standards: Taking a stronger stance in terms of the use of norms and standards to obtain end-use energy efficiency improvements

Renewables: Paying more attention to the costs of setting overly ambitious renewables targets and putting more focus on improving their cost-competitiveness through R&D

A European regulator: Giving real consideration to the bold proposal of establishing a new regulator for cross-border investment and trade issues


What a What a wonderful wonderful challenge for the challenge for the

Finnish Presidency!Finnish Presidency!

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