international conference: regional trade integration in south east europe: benefits and challenges...
TRANSCRIPT
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE: REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION IN SOUTH EAST EUROPE: BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES
BILATERAL VERSUS MULTILATERAL APPROACH TOWARDS REGIONAL
INTEGRATION IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE
Prof. Biljana Sekulovska-Gaber
University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius”
Faculty of Economics
Skopje, Republic of Macedonia
Personal presentation Introducing the title (bilateral
vs. multilateral approach)
"European project" has always had clear political
and security implications
Presentation of the plan Time for questions
The plan
Session IPolitical dimension of cooperation in the Region ofSoutheast Europe
Session IIEconomic dimension of cooperation in the Region
ofSoutheast Europe
Session IIIResults on political stability and good-neighbors
relations Conclusions and discussion
Regional cooperation = closer to EU membership?
INTRODUCTION
European "Story" ( read "Project” ) continues
Why regional cooperation is one of the consistent elements of European integration? Lessons learnt in the region of SEE (“Balkanization”)
Multilateral versus Bilateral approach
Stability Pact (Commission Communication of May 1999: multilateral - words)
Democratization and human rights Economic cooperation, reconstruction and
development Security questions
SAP (Conclusions of General Affairs Council of June 21, 1999: bilateral - action)
The development of existing economic and trade relations with the EU
and the region The development/partial reorientation of existing
economic and financial
assistance Increased assistance for democratisation, civil society,
education and
institution-building The use of new opportunities for cooperation in
various fields (including
justice and home affairs) The development of political dialogue, including
regional level
I. POLITICAL DIMENSION
Enriching SP with RCC as successor (2008)
First comprehensive conflict prevention strategy (lack of own legal body that would ensure its funding)
Use of significant peer pressure
From post-conflict reconstruction to democratic reforms (EC as a member of RCC)
RCC as a “waiting room” until the next wave of EU enlargement?
Forum to strengthen political stability and good – neighbors relationsand not only a platform to channel funds
II. ECONOMIC DIMENSION
Does CEFTA-2006 fosters regional trade?
Problems with trade data (underreporting and institutional weakness)
Regional distribution of exports (EU is the most important trading partner)
Export structure after entering into force of CEFTA-2006 (neighbors are back)
Economic development in turn favors stability and security
II. ECONOMIC DIMENSION
Albania Bosnia &
Herzegovina
Croatia Republic of
Macedonia
Serbia &
Montenegro
EU-25 90.6 54.0 64.6 57.0 53.4
SEE-5 1.7 37.6 19.3 28.9 28.5
Albania 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.6
Bosnia &
Herzegovina
0.1 14.4 2.0 17.0
Croatia 0.1 20.4 4.8 4.1
Republic of
Macedonia
1.2 0.8 0.9 6.8
Serbia 0.4 16.2 3.7 20.8
Regional Export structure, 2004
II. ECONOMIC DIMENSION
Export structure in the region of SEE, 2008
Albania Bosnia &
Herzegovina
Croatia Republic of
Macedonia
Serbia &
Montenegro
Serbia
Albania 0.3 1.6 5
Bosnia &
Herzegovina0.32 20.86 0.1 2.75 9.93
Croatia 0.28 14.4 0.95 1.25 5.36
Republic of
Macedonia2.17 2.62 4.88 0.82 19.05
Montenegro 1.63 4.55 1.4 0.32 27.41
Kosovo 12.6 3.2 1.1 10.5 1.8 11.7
Serbia 0.97 12.2 4.0 4.5 11.7
TOTAL 17.97 36.97 32.24 17.97 18.32 48.45
III. RESULTS
Signed SAAs and NATO membership of Albania and Croatia (April 1, 2009)
Free and fair elections (Albania and Macedonia, 2009 and 2011)
Ethnic reconciliation and democratization (return of refugees and IDPs)
Announcement by EC for visa liberalization by the end of 2009 and 2010
Progressive and moderate government in Serbia (arrest of Radovan Karadzic
and Radko Mladic)
Positive developments
III. RESULTS
Kosovos’s declaration of independence -2008 (the speed could be different)
Independence of Montenegro, gaining the candidate status and waiting to
start negotiatins
Improvement of economic and investment climate (Transition=Accession)
Efforts to reduce poverty in the region
Effects of temporary or circular migration
Positive developments (continued)
Multilateral (SP) vs, bilateral approach (SAP and SAA) = assume of regional ownership
Regional cooperation was not artificially imposed but emerged from a need to become a part of European Area of Stability, Security and Prosperity
Speeding up the transition and achievement of European goals
Change in perception of “Balkanization” (Political and Economic Benefits –reduction of likelihood for conflicts)
CEFTA – 2006 = Finally “back” to regionalist theory (neighbors are back!)
Trade fosters economic cooperation and strengthens political stability and good-neighbors relations, thus brings the SEE Region closer to the EU
DISCUSSION
Regional cooperation = closer to EU membership!?
