interactive climate change scenario planning using communityviz and other low cost tools

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Cape Cod: 2030

Photo: Henrik Dreisler

Wii Hacks for Participatory Planning

Interactive Climate Change Scenario Planning using

CommunityViz and other Low Cost Tools


Jason LallyDi rec to r o f t he Dec i s i on Labja son@p lacemat te r s . o rg

Amy AndersonLead P l ann ing Consu l ta n tamy@p laceways . com


Volpe Center

*Figures are for energy consumption only; they do not reflect life-cycle emissions associated with resource use, emissions from Canal Plant, emissions attributable to combustion of MSW; emissions from land use; etc.

Energy Use (KTOE)

Population

Cape & Islands

Congo

Cape & Islands

Congo

Chris Powicki, Water Energy & Ecology Information Services


(modified after Rahmstorf, 2007; AR4 data from Bindoff, 2007)

IPCC AR4A1B envelope

(modified after Rahmstorf, 2007; AR4 data from Bindoff, 2007)

Rob Thieler,USGS at Woods Hole

Bluff erosionOverwash

Island Breaching

Threshold Crossing

Urban Inundation

R. Carlson

Wetland Loss

Water Quality Reduction

Ecosystem Change

Infrastructure Failure

Listed Species Impacts

Rob Thieler,USGS at Woods Hole


Tom Cambareri , Cape Cod Commission


8.5 pounds nitrogen*

85%** *Average 3-bed home discharge of nitrogen into groundwater per year

**Percent of 156,000 homes presently on septic

Tom Cambareri , Cape Cod Commission


Cape Cod Pilot Project PhasesBeginning Phase

Site selectionDevelopment of scope of workFormation of planning group and technical committeeData collection

Second PhaseExpert elicitation on climate change impactsCreation of GHG reduction strategiesConsultation RFP; selection of consultant


Cape Cod Pilot Project PhasesWorkshops

Identification and invitation of stakeholdersDevelopment of initial and preferred scenariosFollow-up analysis and modeling

End PhaseImplementation/action plansGuidebook for future implementation


Cape Cod: 2030


Scenarios for Land Use and Transportation


About scenario planning

Five scenarios


Scenario Planning

The New Yorker Magazine/Zeigler 2004

DecisionMakers

Uncertain Choices

Uncertain Outcomes

Uncertain Information


Cape Cod 2010 2030

2010

?Choices,Actions

Indicators

A+ B B C-

B B- A A-

C+ B+ C A

B- A+ D C-

A B- B+ B

2030

Scenarios


1. It’s a computer. Computers know everything.

How do we know what will happen?

?

Choices,Actions

2. Enough information and good information.

3. We may be a little off. But that’s okay.


Working with scenarios

• What do we like, or not?

• What’s most important?

• What if we make adjustments?• Would it matter if our models

changed?

Refined Choice


Is and Isn’t

Education and insightsExploring a wide range of optionsUnderstanding trade-offsDirectional decisions

Is Good For

Forecasting or predictionEngineering-level precision

Isn’t Meant For


Scenario Planning Tool

®

A project of

Promoting informed, collaborative decision-making since 2001.

In partnership with


About scenario planning

Five scenarios


Cape Cod 2010 2030

?

Transportation

Enhanced

Standard

Transportation

2030

Pre-run Scenarios

Development

Dispersed

Targeted

Trend

Enhanced

Standard


Sketching Initial Scenarios

• Purposely extreme• Highlight key variables

– Development patterns– Transportation


Growth assumptions for all scenarios• 20 year horizon: Year 2030

• + 28,000 households– Average of 2.25 persons per household– Year-round population: 221,000 284,000– Summer (peak) population: 480,000 543,000– All growth is in year-round population

• + 16,500 jobs– Jobs: 97,000 113,500


Transportation Choices

Standard• Today plus…• Train to Boston• 1 new bus route• Other planned

improvements

Enhanced• Standard plus…• More bus stops• Higher frequency• Pedestrian and bicycle

improvements in dense areas


Cape Cod: 2030


Workshop Exercises & Techniques


Town planners

CCC staff

Federal agencies


Choose your top two issues:

1. Water quality and supply2. Reduce traffic and vehicle miles traveled 3. Access to services and employment4. Avoid development in hazard areas5. Reduce the Cape’s greenhouse gas emissions and

air pollution6. Avoid development in critical habitat or

conservation areas7. Protect the integrity of historic preservation

districts8. Increase access to transit and nonmotorized

modes


Choose your top two issues:

Wate

r Quali

ty an

d Supply

Avoid Dev

elopmen

t in Criti

cal Hab

itat a

nd Conserva

tion Areas

Reduce

Traffic a

nd VMT

Avoid Dev

elopmen

t in Haza

rd Area

s

Reduce

Cape's

GHG Emiss

ions and Air P

ollution

Increase

Access

to Tran

sit an

d Non-motoriz

ed Veh

icles

Access

to Servi

ces an

d Employe

ment

Protec

t Integ

rity o

f Hist

orical

Preserv

ation Area

s0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

40%

16%13%

10%9%

7%

4%1%

Polling Results

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory PlanningConcept Mapping


Cape Cod: 2030


LessonsLearned


Lessons Learned

Things to Improve on• More time is better• Make sure reliable transportation data

on the current and trend exist• Periodic status checks are helpful• 2 facilitators per table

– 1 technical– 1 discussion leader

• Test EVERYTHING ahead of time


Lessons Learned

Reaffirmed Beliefs• Having the live data is invaluable

to the process• The simpler the interaction, the

better• Less resolution can be a good

thing for regional level• Don’t expect to walk away with

“the answer” in 1 day• People want to get involved


Jason LallyDi rec to r o f t he Dec i s i on Labja son@p lacemat te r s . o rg

Tw: @thep lacemat te r sTw: @synch ronousc i t yFb : h t tp : / / f b .me /p l acemat te r sB l : h t tp : / / b l og .p l acema t te r s . o rg

Amy AndersonLead P l ann ing Consu l ta n tamy@p laceways . com

W: h t tp : / / p l a ceways . comW: h t tp : / / commun i tyv i z . com

mailto:[email protected]




interactive climate change scenario planning using communityviz and other low cost tools

Technology

cape cod commission8

transportationcape cod

andersonlead planning

participatory planningcape

emissions attributable

resource use

good information

scenariosfor land use