INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF TRADE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF TRADE RELATED POLICIES IN THERELATED POLICIES IN THEAGRICULTURAL SECTORAGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Strategy for developing an integrated assessment framework.Strategy for developing an integrated assessment framework.Experience from East AfricaExperience from East Africa

ByByCornelius KazooraCornelius Kazoora

DirectorDirector

Sustainable Development CentreSustainable Development CentreMakerere University CampusMakerere University Campus

e-mail: sdc@imul.come-mail: sdc@imul.com

Structure of PresentationStructure of Presentation

• • List of some case studiesList of some case studies• • Lessons and issues from case studiesLessons and issues from case studies• • Implications for developing and /or Implications for developing and /or

improving integrated assessmentsimproving integrated assessments• • Specific strategies for integrated assessmentSpecific strategies for integrated assessment• • Emerging opportunities in support of Emerging opportunities in support of

integrated assessmentsintegrated assessments

Approach used(1)Approach used(1)

• Reviewed some assessments and Reviewed some assessments and related studies that have been related studies that have been made, specifically in Uganda, made, specifically in Uganda, Kenya and TanzaniaKenya and Tanzania

• Identified the strategies that were Identified the strategies that were used in the assessmentused in the assessment

Approach used (2)Approach used (2)

• Based on recommendations and Based on recommendations and emerging issues from those emerging issues from those assessments, drew implications for assessments, drew implications for improvement of strategies for improvement of strategies for integrated assessmentsintegrated assessments

Some case studies(1)Some case studies(1)

-Cost -benefit analysis

-Economic valuation

-Qualitative approaches

ForestryIntegrated assessment of trade liberalization and trade related policies

Impact of agricultural trade and related policy reforms on food security

1. TanzaniaToolsSectorStudyCountry

- -

-

-

- Cross -

sectional household survey data, 1982, 1992, 1997

Agriculture

(KIPPRA)

2. Kenya

Some case studies(2)Some case studies(2)

-Environmental audits

-Pollution measurement in fish & leather, factories, and flower farms

Fisheries Environmental impacts of trade liberalization and policies for sustainable management of natural resources (EPRC ))

3. Uganda

ToolsSectorStudyCountry

-Environmental audits

-Pollution measurement in fish & leather, factories, and flower farms

Fisheries Environmental impacts of trade liberalization and policies for sustainable management of natural resources

))

3. Uganda

ToolsSectorStudyCountry

Some case studies(3)Some case studies(3)

- Modeling

- Field based analysis &interviews

-GIS analysis

Agriculture Wildlife

A system for integrated management and assessment of East African pastoral

lands

ILRI, Nairobi University , Colorado State university, National Resource Ecology Laboratory

4. Kenya

Tanzania

ToolsSectorStudyCountry

- Modeling

- Field based analysis &interviews

-GIS analysis

Agriculture Wildlife

A system for integrated management and assessment of East African pastoral

lands

4. Kenya

Tanzania

ToolsSectorStudyCountry

Some case studies(4)Some case studies(4)

- CGE model

AgricultureThe impact on Uganda of Agricultural

trade liberalization,

Adam Blake, Andrew Mckay and Oliver Morrissey 2001

5. Uganda

ToolsSectorStudyCountry

- CGE model

AgricultureThe impact on Uganda of Agricultural

trade liberalization,

5. Uganda

ToolsSectorStudyCountry

Some case studies(5)Some case studies(5)

-Trend Analysis

IMPACT model

Agriculture

Food security &Nutrition

Ugandan trade policy

and export performance

Morrissey & Nichodemas RudaheramuaInternational model for Policy Analysis of agriculturalCommodities and Trade

(IMPACT): Model Description Mark W, Rosegrant , Siet Meijer &Sarah. Acline (2002) IFPRI

6. Uganda

7. Kenya, TanzaniaUganda

ToolsSectorStudyCountry

-

in the 1990s .

,

Some case studies(6)Some case studies(6)

Review of Literature

Agriculture Poverty Reduction and Agricultural Trade in Sub -Saharan Africa

USAID, 2004

8. SSA, including Uganda, Kenya& Tanzania

ToolsSectorStudyCountry

Review of Literature

Agriculture Poverty Reduction and Agricultural Trade in Sub -Saharan Africa

8. SSA, including Uganda, Kenya& Tanzania

ToolsSectorStudyCountry

Emerging challenges& needs (1)

• How to choose data and methodologies that help establish causal links between trade-related policies and impacts on biodiversity (Policy Briefs-Trade&Biodiversity, IUCN 2004)

• How to discern the impact from other economic factors that would affect agricultural markets. For example, Oliver Morrissey and Nichodemus Rudaheramua established that beyond trade liberalisation, there is need to consider infrastructure and institutional support

Emerging challenges& needs (2)

• How to move beyond site specific evidence and from conceptual to empirical analysis (IUCN 2004). In fact, USAID (2004) also proposed: “Help SSA develop an empirical basis to support trade policy decisions regarding regional and global markets”

• How to capture distributional gains in agriculture (i.e urban vs rural, and by region. Adam Blake, Andrew Mackay and Olives Morrissey 2001)

Emerging challenges& needs (3)

• How to place the recommendations from assessment into an institutional home for their implementation. For example, the assessment team in Tanzania recommended a Task Force for the purpose. In Uganda, the Ministry of Tourism, Trade and Industry has formed an Inter-institutional Trade Committee( IITC) of 22 government ministries and statutory bodies, 5 private sector umbrella organisations, 5 NGOs&CSOs &2 Academia to oversee policy formulation

Emerging challenges& needs (4)

• Any assessment of the impact of a policy Any assessment of the impact of a policy reform requires a reform requires a benchmarkbenchmark against which against which to compare the current values ( to compare the current values ( ex postex post) or ) or the simulated values ( the simulated values ( ex-ante).ex-ante).[FAO][FAO]

• Where statistics are not available for two Where statistics are not available for two distinct periods in time, a “distinct periods in time, a “with and with and without”without” approach may be appropriate approach may be appropriate

Emerging challenges& needs (5)

• Issues and impacts in trade are Issues and impacts in trade are cross-cross-sectoralsectoral, not necessarily agriculture-, not necessarily agriculture-specific, hence creating the need to be specific, hence creating the need to be cautious when recommending policy cautious when recommending policy revisions. revisions. Bernard Hoekman&Kym Bernard Hoekman&Kym Arderson, 1999[ Developing Country Arderson, 1999[ Developing Country Agriculture &the New Trade AgendaAgriculture &the New Trade Agenda] ] World BankWorld Bank

Implication from the proceeding Implication from the proceeding evidenceevidence

• Strategies for integrated assessments have Strategies for integrated assessments have to adopt a phased, but linked approach to adopt a phased, but linked approach broken down as follows: broken down as follows:

- Preparation &planning phase- Preparation &planning phase- Assessment phaseAssessment phase- Implementation phaseImplementation phase- Monitoring phaseMonitoring phase

Phases at which to develop Phases at which to develop strategiesstrategies

Preparation andPlanning phase

Assessment phase Monitoring

phase

Implementation phase

Strategies- Planning Phase(1)Strategies- Planning Phase(1)

• Create awareness of the issues to be Create awareness of the issues to be assessedassessed

• Source relevant multi-disciplinary Source relevant multi-disciplinary personnel or skills to carry out assessmentpersonnel or skills to carry out assessment

• Formulate the appropriate conceptual& Formulate the appropriate conceptual& analytical frameworkanalytical framework

Strategies- Careful Planning for the assessment(2)

• Train the team members in the use of the toolsTrain the team members in the use of the tools• Identify relevant data to feed into the analytical Identify relevant data to feed into the analytical

frameworkframework• Make a list of stakeholder institutions to be Make a list of stakeholder institutions to be

consultedconsulted• Make a plan for cost-effective consultative processMake a plan for cost-effective consultative process• Select the organizational arrangement or structure Select the organizational arrangement or structure

to coordinate the assessment team, and to review to coordinate the assessment team, and to review the resultsthe results

Strategies - Careful planning Strategies - Careful planning assessment (3)assessment (3)

• Plan for dissemination, and “housing”of Plan for dissemination, and “housing”of likely recommendations for implementationlikely recommendations for implementation

• Identify the Identify the audienceaudience to impact upon when to impact upon when assessment is completeassessment is complete

• Plan the Plan the advocacyadvocacy tools that will be used for tools that will be used for advocacyadvocacy

• Develop Develop communication strategycommunication strategy

• Explore the use of the Explore the use of the mediamedia and the press and the press to create awareness, and generate interest to create awareness, and generate interest around the ‘subject’ of assessmentaround the ‘subject’ of assessment

• Budget for implementation of above Budget for implementation of above strategiesstrategies

Strategies - Careful planning Strategies - Careful planning assessment (3)assessment (3)

Strategies – Assessment phase Strategies – Assessment phase

• Maintain and support communication and dialogue Maintain and support communication and dialogue among assessment team membersamong assessment team members

• Provide technical assistance, if need be, to bring Provide technical assistance, if need be, to bring best practices and experiences from elsewhere e.g best practices and experiences from elsewhere e.g in quantifying &valuing impactsin quantifying &valuing impacts

• Identify data and capacity gapsIdentify data and capacity gaps

• Build consensus on major impacts and their Build consensus on major impacts and their indicatorsindicators

Strategies – Implantation phaseStrategies – Implantation phase

• Form relevant structure to take recommendations Form relevant structure to take recommendations forwardforward

• Provide funds for implementation, if need beProvide funds for implementation, if need be

• Build capacityBuild capacity

• Arrange to update and or collect relevant dataArrange to update and or collect relevant data

• Implement the communication &advocacy Implement the communication &advocacy strategiesstrategies

Strategies – Monitoring phaseStrategies – Monitoring phase

• Identify new policies to formulate Identify new policies to formulate or old ones to fine-tuneor old ones to fine-tune

• Identify new problem areas for Identify new problem areas for integrated assessmentintegrated assessment