institutional equity research asian paints...

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.

Asian Paints (APNT IN)

Changing colours

INDIA | FMCG | Company Update

13 June 2020

Demand headwinds to outweigh structural tailwinds in the medium term Volume CAGR of 3% in domestic decorative paints over FY20-22 (volumes to fall 15% in FY21, sharp recovery of 25% in FY22) will be much lower than the average low-teen volume growth that APNT has tracked over the past two decades due to the following reasons:

(1) Weak consumer sentiment (poor macro environment, salary cuts, job losses) leading to postponement of discretionary spends, hurting repainting demand.

(2) Sombre celebrations of wedding / festivals due to compliance of social distancing norms and poor consumer sentiment.

(3) Lower churn in rental homes in FY21, as significant shifting did not take place in the peak season of April-May 2020 (families prefer shifting, given summer vacation). Moreover, reduction in migration will add to rental housing market woes.

(4) Premiumization trends will decelerate, as urban areas remain under severe stress (5) Financial challenges for the real-estate industry will lead to construction delays,

thereby impacting new painting demand (of late, APNT has become very aggressive in projects business).

(6) Peak waterproofing season (April-May) in 2020 was a washout because of supply-chain challenges; this business contributed meaningfully to APNT’s volume growth in FY20. As per our channel checks, Berger Paints has done relatively well in this segment in FY21 in select pockets (as govt had allowed all pre- monsoon essential work to function, however APNT struggled to cater consumer demand due to supply chain challenges

(7) Limited availability of painters. While there are some silver linings such as customers doing small DIY projects, but it will not be enough to move the needle. However, paint demand should recover faster in semi-urban/rural areas than in urban areas, on the former’s relatively better macroeconomics (higher MNREGA allocation, better realization on crops, lower COVID cases). Migrant painters who have gone back to villages are not likely to sit idle and will take up sundry painting jobs available in rural areas. In select urban areas, our checks suggest that customers have resorted to do-it-yourself (DIY, by purchasing smaller SKUs of 1 litre) to complete patches or paint grills at home, as a pastime during the lockdown. Risk reward unfavourable for this compounding machine We agree consensus view of solid moats - strong brand equity, an extensive distribution network, and a well-diversified product portfolio and its ability to foray into new categories. In this process, it will set up new benchmarks every year. However, the near-term will see subdued operating performance (3% EPS CAGR over FY20-22) and exorbitant valuations (54x FY22 EPS), which do not leave enough margin for safety on the table. We cut our EPS estimates by 15%/30% for FY21/22 based on the challenging business environment. We downgrade APNT to SELL from BUY with a TP of Rs 1,350 (45x FY22 EPS) vs Rs 1,825 (50x FY22 EPS) earlier. Who moved my labour?: Our ground checks suggest bulk of painters in key metro cities constitute migrant labour, which are unlikely to come back before Diwali, given uncertainty on livelihoods and health and safety concerns. Moreover, the ask rate of local painters (sons of the soil)) is likely to inch-up given scarcity of workers and historical lower inclination to toil hard, as most of them have accommodation and easy availability of food via govt schemes. In either case, cost of painting contracts will shoot up as painters have to: (1) Maintain social distancing norms, (2) do regular sanitization of homes, thereby leading to time/costs overruns, and (3) painters have to wear heavy and uncomfortable PPE suits.

SELL (Downgrade) CMP RS 1,633 TARGET RS 1,350 (-17%) COMPANY DATA

O/S SHARES (MN) : 959

MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 1567

MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 20.7

52 - WK HI/LO (RS) : 1917 / 1291

LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 30.

PAR VALUE (RS) : 1

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, %

Mar 20 Dec 19 Sep 19

PROMOTERS : 52.8 52.8 52.8

FII / NRI : 17.9 17.8 17.4

FI / MF : 9.2 9.7 10.2

NON PRO : 3.0 2.8 2.8

PUBLIC & OTHERS : 17.1 16.9 16.8

KEY FINANCIALS

Rs mn FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Sales 2,03,252 1,69,304 2,12,921 EBIDTA 41,294 32,348 43,825 Net Profit 26,999 19,964 28,644 EPS, Rs 28.1 20.8 29.9 PER, x 58.0 78.5 54.7 EV/EBIDTA, x 37.6 47.6 35.0 P/BV, x 14.3 13.2 12.0 ROE, % 24.7 16.8 22.0 Debt/Equity (%) 5.7 5.2 4.8

Source: Phillip Capital India Research

CHANGE IN ESTIMATES

_Revised Est. _ __% Revision__

Rs mn FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E

Revenue 1,69,304 2,12,921 -17.2% -9.6%

EBITDA 32,348 43,825 -25.1% -13.1%

Core PAT 19,964 28,644 -29.2% -15.1%

EPS (Rs) 20.8 29.9 -29.2% -15.1%

Source: Phillip Capital India Research

Vishal Gutka, Research Analyst (+ 9122 6246 4118) [email protected] Preeyam Tolia, Research Associate (+ 9122 6246 4129) [email protected]

Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

ASIAN PAINTS COMPANY UPDATE

We believe customers are likely to be hesitant in allowing third-party painters stepping inside their homes, despite APNT adopting best-in-class practices in home sanitization. Margins to come under stress: We believe APNT’s gross margin expansion (PC: c.100bps) might be lower than consensus expectations (>150bps) given that 60%+ of domestic paints business is water-based, where content of crude-linked RMs is relatively lower and there is increased down-trading. APNT had given additional rebates in order to accelerate collection from dealers, which will have its own implications on profitability. Its decision of giving pay hikes to employees and under-utilization of its newly commenced mega factories at Vizag and Mysore (c.55% of existing capacity), in the light of weak demand would lead to negative operating leverage. Business operating decision to have its own impact on margins We believe that the following business operating SOP (Stand operating Procedure) will have its own repercussion on operating margins in FY21:

APNT has taken aggressive stance on in-built discounts for fast-moving SKUs vs. its competitors who generally resort to scheme-based discounts to order ensure healthy volume offtake for themselves. However, APNT saw lukewarm response from dealers as they were already sitting on high inventory and the consumer demand outlook was weak. APNT has taken the lead in sanitizing paint shops, thereby generating goodwill among the dealers community, but this has its own cost. (checks suggests it costs Rs > 2000 to sanitize a shop)

It has decided to support influencers (dealers/contractors/painters) via giving high cash rewards, as themselves are facing liquidity challenges. Earlier, it used to sponsor relatively lower-cost foreign trips or used to present them with home appliances.

Ensuring strict adherence to credit terms and norms is a double-edged sword. While it addresses credit risks, it might lead to market-share loss, as competitors are willing to offer relaxation in credit period.

Two types of discounts are given in the paints Industry: in-built discounts, and scheme-based discounts.

In-built discounts are on a real-time basis, and given to dealers upfront. They are not linked to offtake from the company.

Scheme discounts – % discount depend on the quantity / quality of goods purchased from the company and is not given to dealers upfront. They are paid after a certain period.

APNT, being a market leader, takes away a lion’s share of paint-industry volumes due to best-in-class supply-chain practices and better ROI to dealers, despite low margins offered to dealers, given higher sales velocity. APNT has been less aggressive in offering in-built / scheme-based discounts over the past few years, given strong brand equity and unmatchable distribution network. Most of the challengers (Berger Paints, Kansai, and Akzo) generally resort to scheme-based discounts to ensure healthy volume offtake for them. However, owing to breakout of COVID-19 pandemic, APNT after a while has started offering in-built discounts for its fast-moving SKU’s.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/asian-paints-raises-staff-salaries-to-boost-morale/articleshow/75746239.cms



Figure 1: If prices of Tio2 and crude stay at current levels, APNT could see flat /. c35% decline respectively forFY21

Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India estimates

Figure 2: Additional rebates announced by APNT for payment before due date of 3rd May, 2020

Payment made between Additional rebate

16th April - 20th April 2%

21st April - 25th April 1.5%

Source: Company, Phillipcapital India estimates

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Figure 3: Asian Paints is taking all precautions to get through the pandemic

Figure 4: Labour crisis likely to stay



Figure 5: Volume growth likely to taper off in FY21

Source: Company, Phillipcapital India estimates

Figure 6: Asian Paints is trading at c20% premium to 5 years average PE despite subdued demand outlook

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 7: Estimated cost of painting across major cities

Cost of painting - Rs/sq. ft

Pune/Bangalore/Hyderabad Mumbai

Company Brand Rs/sq. ft Rs/sq. ft

Advanced Asian Paints Royale Luxury Emulsion 18 24

Royale Aspira 25 30

Royal Shyne 20 27

Royal Atmos 22 25

Nerolac Impression 24 carat 19 25

Pearls Lustre 23

Impression Ultra HD 25

Pearls Emulsion 16 23

Dulux Velvet Touch 18 26

Standard Asian Paints Apcolite Premium Emulsion 14 18

Apcolite Advanced Emulsion 16 18

Lustre Asian Paints 20 21

Nerolac Beauty Gold 13.4 18

Super Cover 15 17

9.1

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FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E

Deco-volume gr (%)

Average PE

1SD

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-2SD

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65 1Yr FWD PE



Pearl Lustre (Solvent Based) 19 21

Dulux Super Clean 3 in 1 16 22

Economy Asian Paints Tractor Emulsion 11 14

Tractor Emulsion Advanced 11.5 14.5

Nerolac Beauty Smooth Finish 10.5 13.25

Source: Aapkapainter

Estimated paint cost

City Type Space Total cost

Mumbai Repainting 1000 sft 48639

Bangalore Repainting 1000 sft 31902

Pune Repainting 1000 sft 31902

* Apcolite premium emulsion, Tractor emulsion advanced (ceiling)

Source: Aapkapainter



Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net sales 1,93,415 2,03,252 1,69,304 2,12,921

Growth, % 15 5 -17 26

Total income 1,93,415 2,03,252 1,69,304 2,12,921

Raw material expenses -1,13,423 -1,16,826 -95,797 -1,21,663

Employee expenses -12,572 -13,326 -12,660 -13,609

Other Operating expenses -29,799 -31,807 -28,499 -33,824

EBITDA (Core) 37,621 41,294 32,348 43,825

Growth, % 17.7 9.8 (21.7) 35.5

Margin, % 19.5 20.3 19.1 20.6

Depreciation -6,256 -7,673 -8,527 -9,331

EBIT 31,365 33,621 23,821 34,494

Growth, % 10.5 7.2 (29.1) 44.8

Margin, % 16.2 16.5 14.1 16.2

Interest paid -1,057 -951 -998 -1,048

Other Income 2,331 3,263 3,752 4,690

Non-recurring Items 0 0 0 0

Pre-tax profit 33,046 36,503 27,174 38,764

Tax provided -10,966 -8,983 -6,689 -9,599

Profit after tax 22,080 27,520 20,485 29,166

Others (Minorities, Associates) -521 -521 -521 -521

Net Profit 21,559 26,999 19,964 28,644

Growth, % 9.5 25.2 (26.1) 43.5

Net Profit (adjusted) 21,559 26,999 19,964 28,644

Unadj. shares (m) 959 959 959 959

Wtd avg shares (m) 959 959 959 959

Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Cash & bank 4,449 18,235 32,248 38,875

Debtors 19,134 20,047 16,698 21,000

Inventory 31,499 32,854 27,367 34,417

Loans & advances 942 942 942 942

Other current assets 14,004 14,004 14,004 14,004

Total current assets 70,028 86,083 91,259 1,09,239

Investments 25,697 26,267 26,866 27,495

Gross fixed assets 72,558 79,558 88,058 96,058

Less: Depreciation -14,046 -21,719 -30,246 -39,577

Add: Capital WIP 2,097 2,097 2,097 2,097

Net fixed assets 60,609 59,936 59,909 58,578

Total assets 1,56,333 1,72,286 1,78,034 1,95,311

Current liabilities 45,909 47,024 42,839 48,216

Total current liabilities 45,909 47,024 42,839 48,216

Non-current liabilities 11,596 11,596 11,596 11,596

Total liabilities 57,506 58,621 54,435 59,813

Paid-up capital 959 959 959 959

Reserves & surplus 94,238 1,08,554 1,17,966 1,29,345

Shareholders’ equity 98,827 1,13,665 1,23,599 1,35,499

Total equity & liabilities 1,56,333 1,72,286 1,78,034 1,95,311

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

Cash Flow Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Pre-tax profit 33,046 36,503 27,174 38,764

Depreciation 6,256 7,673 8,527 9,331

Chg in working capital 115 -1,153 4,650 -5,975

Total tax paid -9,544 -8,983 -6,689 -9,599

Cash flow from operating activities 29,873 34,039 33,662 32,522

Capital expenditure -15,491 -7,000 -8,500 -8,000

Chg in investments -4,290 -570 -599 -629

Cash flow from investing activities -19,374 -7,000 -8,500 -8,000

Free cash flow 10,499 27,039 25,162 24,522

Equity raised/(repaid) 36 0 0 0

Debt raised/(repaid) 942 0 0 0

Dividend (incl. tax) -12,106 -12,683 -10,551 -17,266

Cash flow from financing activities -11,295 -12,683 -10,551 -17,266

Net chg in cash -796 14,357 14,611 7,256

Opening cash balance 4,047 4,449 18,235 32,248

Closing cash balance 4,449 18,235 32,248 38,875

Valuation Ratios

FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Per Share data

EPS (INR) 22.5 28.1 20.8 29.9

Growth, % 9.5 25.2 (26.1) 43.5

Book NAV/share (INR) 99.2 114.2 124.0 135.8

FDEPS (INR) 22.5 28.1 20.8 29.9

CEPS (INR) 29.0 36.1 29.7 39.6

CFPS (INR) 28.3 31.5 30.6 28.4

DPS (INR) 10.5 11.0 11.0 18.0

Return ratios

Return on assets (%) 15.7 17.3 12.3 16.2

Return on equity (%) 22.6 24.7 16.8 22.0

Return on capital employed (%) 22.3 24.2 16.5 21.4

Turnover ratios

Asset turnover (x) 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.7

Sales/Total assets (x) 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1

Sales/Net FA (x) 3.5 3.4 2.8 3.6

Working capital/Sales (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Receivable days 36.1 36.0 36.0 36.0

Inventory days 59.4 59.0 59.0 59.0

Payable days 102.1 100.8 108.0 99.1

Working capital days 37.1 37.4 34.9 38.0

Liquidity ratios

Current ratio (x) 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3

Quick ratio (x) 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.6

Interest cover (x) 29.7 35.4 23.9 32.9

Total debt/Equity (%) 6.5 5.7 5.2 4.8

Net debt/Equity (%) 1.8 (11.0) (21.9) (25.1)

Valuation

PER (x) 72.7 58.0 78.5 54.7

PEG (x) - y-o-y growth 7.7 2.3 (3.0) 1.3

Price/Book (x) 16.5 14.3 13.2 12.0

EV/Net sales (x) 8.1 7.6 9.1 7.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 41.7 37.6 47.6 35.0

EV/EBIT (x) 50.0 46.2 64.7 44.5



Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History

Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. We have different threshold for large market capitalisation stock and Mid/small market capitalisation stock. The categorisation of stock based on market capitalisation is as per the SEBI requirement.

Large cap stocks Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +10% Target price is equal to or more than 10% of current market price

NEUTRAL -10% > to < +10% Target price is less than +10% but more than -10%

SELL <= -10% Target price is less than or equal to -10%.

Mid cap and Small cap stocks Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price

NEUTRAL -15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than -15%

SELL <= -15% Target price is less than or equal to -15%.

Disclosures and Disclaimers PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives, and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may, may not match, or may be contrary at times with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the other equity research groups of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.

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This report does not regard the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax, and financial advisors and reach their own conclusions regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Under no circumstances can it be used or considered as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the

N (TP 1215) N (TP 1215)

N (TP 1250)

B (TP 1400)

B (TP 1600)

B (TP 1430)

B (TP 1575) B (TP 1580)

B (TP 1785)

B (TP 2100) B (TP 2100)

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