inspiring learning leadership and change for sustainability the un regime on the road to bali...
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Inspiring learning leadership and change for sustainability
The UN regime on the road to BaliOctober 2007
Claire N ParkerEnvironmental Policy Consultant
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OUTLINE
• Context in which the post 2012 UNFCCC regime is being shaped
• Fundamentals of a new regime
• Developments within the UN process
• Expectations for Bali?
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Inspiring learning leadership and change for sustainability
Context in which the post 2012 UN regime is being shaped
UNFCCC 1992Kyoto Protocol 1997
emission reduction targets expire 2012
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IPCC AR4 (2007)
Overall more confidence, more consensus
‘global emissions of greenhouse gases need to peak in the next 10 to 15 years and then be reduced to… well below half of levels in 2000 by mid-century, if the climate is to be safely stabilised’
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IPCC AR4
Impacts - generally negative
In particular:
• compound poverty
• endanger security
• impede nations’ ability to achieve sustainable development
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Stern Review (Oct 2006)
Costs of prevention < costs of inaction
1 % of global GDP / year
5% of global GDP/year, now and forever
20% if wider risks taken into account
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EU Council March 2007
Climate and Energy Strategy
2°C limit, 2020 (-20/30%) - 2050 (-60/80%)Global and comprehensive global agreement
Energy efficiency => cut consumption by 20% by 2020
20% renewables10% biofuels in petrol and diesel
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G 8 June 2007
• Process based results– “consider seriously” global goal of min -50%
by 2050– US: “major emitters” process to contribute to UNFCCC process
– timetable for G.8: new global deal by 2009– inadequate interaction with the +5 countries
(Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa)
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US ‘Major Economies’ process Sept 2007
• US acknowledges climate change is a problem• Wants long-term global goal for emission reductions• Process to contribute to UNFCCC negotiations towards
consensus in 2009 • National strategies to reflect own energy resources, state
of development and economic needs– Amounts to voluntary action (widely rejected…)
• Technology is the solution
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Fundamentals of a new regime
• Reduce emissions to stabilise climate & limit change to a safe level
• Adapt to (already inevitable) climate change
• Urgent
• Inclusive to ensure– Effectiveness– Fairness
• Based on solidarity– Response to global
crisis
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Per capita CO2 emissions
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Top 25 « footprints »(WRI/Pew Center; data for 2000)
Saudi Arabia
Top 25 in Emissions(excl. LUCF)
Top 25 in GDP
USA, China, EU25, Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Brazil, UK, Italy, Mexico, France, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey
Ukraine, Pakistan
Canada, Rep. Korea, Australia, S. Africa, Spain, Poland, Argentina
Netherlands, (Taiwan)
Thailand
Bangladesh, Nigeria, Viet Nam, Philippines, Ethiopia, Egypt, Congo
Top 25 in Population
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Outline of a package ideally guided by ‘shared vision’
• Integrate CC in sustainable development– Mostly win/wins but also negative feedbacks
• Vulnerability and adaptation– Assistance to most vulnerable countries
• Mitigation: verifiable targets, differentiated commitments in common framework of accountability– Cap& trade, policies, sectoral benchmarks, …
• Technology, finance and markets
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The UN Process in a nutshell
• Coalitions among the 194 countries– G77 + China– European Union (+ candidates)– JUSSCANNZ (Japan, US, Canada, Norway,
Australia, NZ)– Umbrella group (JUSCANNZ + Russia)– Environmental Integrity Group (Mexico,
Korea, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Monaco)
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G 77 + China• AOSIS (40+ small island states)• OPEC/Saudi Arabia• Latin America & Caribbean (33)• African Group• LDC group• (Asian Group)
Environmental and business NGOs, financial institutions, cities etc.
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Recent developments in UN process
• Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG)
only KP parties
• Dialogue on long-term cooperative action under the Convention
all parties to UNFCCC
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Vienna Climate Change TalksSept 2007
Analysis of existing and potential investment and financial flows =>
‘the scale of the problem is clear from the IPCC, the technology is available, and solutions are financially affordable’
Yvo de Boer, Exec Sec UNFCCC
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UN High Level Event on Climate Change
• Convened by Secretary-General on 24 Sept.• “clear call for a breakthrough” at Bali COP• need to generate action by all countries, while
pursuing their development goals, to limit emissions of the gases that cause climate change, to develop and deploy the practices and technologies that hold the key to a climate-friendly future, and to adapt to the climate changes that are inevitable.
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Expectations for Bali: issues important to developing countries
in Vienna, China called for ‘legally binding instruments on adaptation, technology transfer and financing to safeguard the climate change process’
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Transfer of technology
• Renewables, energy efficiency and conservation, carbon capture and storage
• Major barriers: intellectual property rights
• Need for enabling environments or to be seen as a response to a global crisis
(enlightened self-interest?)
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Adaptation
• Industrialised countries have responsibility• Bilateral and multilateral funding
– Insufficient- in order of $100-130mil/year
• Adaptation Fund from share of proceeds from CDM– CDM volume in pipeline to 2012 is $2.2 bn– Assuming 80- 300mil CERs/yr at $24, there wd be
$80-300mil in adaptation fund by 2012– Modalities for disbursement under discussion
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Finance
• UNFCCC estimate: $200-210bn in 2030 to return emissions to current levels, 46% in developing countries
• New and additional resources needed• Mainstreaming climate change in FDI and
ODA• Carbon markets
– Tool of efficiency as well as source of $ via levies
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Possible contributions by developing countries
• Avoiding deforestation, for which they would be compensated
• Others might include: – Sustainable development policies and
measures– Intensity goals– Sectoral benchmarks
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Russian Proposal
May August December
Convention (COP)
Kyoto Protocol (CMP)IPC
C A
R4
Convention Dialogue:• Advancing development goals• Addressing action on adaptation• Realising full pot. of technology• Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities
4th WorkshopReport toCOP-13
Deforestation (SBSTA)
Technology Transfer (SBSTA)
Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI)
AWG (Art. 3.9) 4th Session
Review of the Kyoto Protocol
Bali Roadmap
• Ambition/objective• “principles”• Platform & process• Timeline• Recognition of action• Deforestation • Technology• Adaptation• Finance & investment• Russian Proposal?
• Commitments AI KP
• Russian Proposal?
• Incentives for action• Bunker fuels• ?
?
The Bali “roadmap”
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2007 2008 2009 2010
COP 12 COP 13 Indonesia
COP 14, Poland
COP 15, Denmark
COP16, Latin America
Science 4th AR IPCC
FIN GER PORT ESPFRA SWECZSLO BEL
Convention Dialogue
New targets for industrialised countries under the Kyoto Protocol (Art 3.9)
Follow-Up Convention Dialogue
G20 Gleneagles Plan of Action
G8 GER G8 JAP G8 ITA
Deal on New International Framework
Review of Kyoto Protocol (Art 9)
Follow-Up Review
International climate negotiations timeline SOURCE: EUROPEAN COMMISSION
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Extra slides that may be useful in the discussion
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Effectiveness, fairness and potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)
Source: WRI/CAIT < www.cait.wri.org>
% World emissions
Tons per cap(tCO2e)
1950-2000 cumulative CO2 - % world + T/cap
Intensity T/B$GDP
ExclLUCF
InclLUCF
ExclLUCF
InclLUCF
Energy EnergyPlus LUC
ExclLUCF
USA 20.4 24.3 0.72
EU 25 14.1 10.5 0.46
Russian Fed. 5.7 13.1 1.84
Japan 4.0 10.7 0.40
Annex I (KP)
51.5 (29)
41.3 (24)
14.1 13.8 71.6%458 T/cap
51.5%459 T/cap
0.64
Non-Annex I 47.2 57.6 3.3 5.0 26.4%42 T/cap
46.7%105 T/cap
0.90
China 14.7 11.9 3.9 1.00
India 5.6 4.5 1.9 0.77
Brazil 2.5 5.4 4.9 12.8 0.67
Indonesia 1.5 7.4 2.4 14.9 0.81
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EU-15 and EU-25 emissions and projectionssource: EC