infrastructure needs: north dakota’s county, township, & tribal roads & bridges 2017-2036

Infrastructure Needs:

North Dakota’s County, Township, & Tribal Roads & Bridges

2017-2036

Draft Report

ND Legislative Transportation Committee

Harvest Room

September 28, 2016

Upper Great Plains Transportation InstituteNorth Dakota State University

Outline of Today’s Presentation• Introductory Remarks/general

findings

• Quick History of Studies

• General Changes in 2016 Study

Process

• Data Collection Details

• Data Analysis Processes/Issues

• Summation of Needs Presentation

Slide 2

Introductory Remarks

• This study is again an improvement over

the past studies.

– Utilization of Legislative Support of Asset

Management

• GRIT – Geographic Roadway Information Tool

• Better pavement history Data

– Improved Unpaved Road Survey Instrument

• Built with a user group

• Provided Webinar based Training – Recorded

Slide 3

General Findings for 2016• Overall Ride and Pavement Ratings are Improving

• County participation in Asset Management (GRIT) has

enhanced quality of pavement history/thickness data.

• Pavements are thicker based on GRIT and Final GPR data

resulting in less reconstruction and more overlays.

• Unit costs are lower than in last study with no differential

between oil and non-oil counties

• Gravel costs have had much more attention by locals

• Gravel costs are up a bit

• Paving costs are down for the 20 year period as expected

due to recent investments

• Bridges are generally unchanged – up slightly

Slide 4

Quick History of Studies• 2010 study: UGPTI estimated road

investment needs for the 2011 session

– 21,500 new wells & increased ag. production

• 2012 study: updated investment needs

– 46,000 new wells, ag. production, & initial

bridge study

• 2014 Study: more comprehensive data

– Higher roadway costs, ag. production, &

60,000 new wells

• 2016 Study: First Study with GRIT and

Reduced Oil Exploration: 30, 60, & 90 Rigs

Slide 5

2016 Study Horizon

• 20 year time frame

• Traffic and investment needs estimated

annually

• Results summarized by:

– Biennium

– Region

• Detailed results by:

– County

– Jurisdiction

Slide 6

UGPTI Study Team

• Denver Tolliver

• Alan Dybing

• Tim Horner

• Bradley Wentz

• Pan Lu

• Andrew Wrucke

• Michal Jaroszynski

Slide 7

Feedback from Counties

and Legislators - 2015

• Interactive map was effective in

communicating results

• First time many had objective pavement

ratings available to them

• Study provided basis for investing in

transportation infrastructure

pg. 8

Concerns from Counties and Legislators -

2015• Pavement condition scores may not reflect age

of lower layers of pavement

– More accurate shoulder width and pavement

thickness needed

• Counties not uniformly reporting gravel costs

• No costs for minor structures

• Some counties unaware of data requests –

resulting from communication complexity within

counties

pg. 9

2016 Study Priorities

• Emphasis on uniformity of gravel costing submissions

(revised survey instrument)

• Additional improvements to county pavement

condition data

• Continued improvement to traffic data and

forecasting

• Updated costing and modeling concepts

• Capture more accurate data history from counties –

asset inventory tool (GRIT)

• Continued emphasis on maintaining system – not

providing for major upgrades

pg. 10

General Changes in Study Process

• Finished county pavement strength testing for majority of paved roads

• Obtained age, width and project data from many counties through GRIT.

• Enhanced unpaved roads survey with revised survey and extensive training

• Traffic Model Sensitivity Process– 30, 60 and 90 rig traffic models

– 20 to 22 wells per rig per year

Slide 11

Primary Data Collection Items

• Traffic counts

• Pavement ride & distress (Pathways)

• Falling weight & GPR

• County gravel mtce. information

• Oil data

• Crop data

• NBIS data

• County jurisdictional data

Slide 12

2015

Slide 13

Pavement Data Collection

• Condition data collection

– Collected data with NDDOT Pathway van

and operator

– Approx. 4500 miles of paved county roads

tested

• Supplemented 1000 miles with GRIT data (age

base PCR)

– Collection completed August 2015

– UGPTI provided driver

Slide 14

Data Collection (Cont.)

• Pavement/subgrade strength and depth

surveys

Falling Weight Deflectometer and Ground Penetrating

Radar

Sampling on all county paved segments > 2 miles in

length

Completed October 28, 2015

pg. 15

pg. 16

Non-Destructive Testing Sites – FWD & GPR

2013

2015

Data Collection – Gravel Road Cost Surveys

• Gravel costs & production techniques

• Placement costs

• Transportation & placement costs

• Dust suppressant costs

• Intermediate practices

o Stabilization armor coat

o Double chip seal/armor coat

o Others

o Questionnaire responses:

o 2014 - 52 Counties; 2016 - 53 Counties

Slide 17

Unpaved (Gravel Roads Survey)

– Survey Released to Counties 8-14-15

– Survey Released to TWP’s 9-1-15

• Supplemental letter to County Comm/Auditors

– Instructional Webinar Hosted and Recorded

• September 23, 2015

– Reminder letters throughout year

– Status July 1

• 53 Counties Submitted

• 738 TWPs Submitted

pg. 18

Data Collection – Bridges

• Used 2015 NBI bridge inventory & GIS data

• 2,423 open county, township and local bridges

• Removed 406 bridges

– Bridges on trails – GIS Hub

– Bridges on unimproved roads – GIS Hub

– Bridges on graded/drained – GIS Hub

– Bridges on roads with grass on road – Google Earth

– Recently closed bridges – county memos to LG

– Bridges recently replaced with culverts

Slide 23

• Insert slides with maps of grit data such

as pavement age and shoulder width

Slide 24

• Insert slides with maps of grit data such

as pavement age and shoulder width

Slide 25

pg. 26

Change in Pavement Condition 2013

to 2016

Modeling of Freight/Truck Movements

Oil Analysis

• Each of the major truck traffic categories were analyzed

due to potential differences in travel behavior and trip

length distribution.

• A total of 9 sub models were estimated for the overall oil sub model.

• Individual estimates were aggregated to the segment

level for overall traffic estimates.

• Three rig count scenarios were estimated: 30, 60 and 90

rigs

• Rig productivity was updated following updates at the

WBPC

Slide 29

Agricultural Analysis

• A total of 9 commodities were modeled.

In addition, fertilizer and transshipment

movements were modeled individually

for a total of 11 ag sub models.

• Individual models were aggregated to

the segment level to develop estimates

of agricultural traffic estimates

statewide.

Slide 30

Summation of Needs Part of Presentation

Initial Results of Bridge Analysis

Slide 32

•

pg. 33

Grand Totals by County – All Improvements

Draft Summation of Unpaved Road Needs

Table of Results – Unpaved Roads

Slide 35

2012 Study 2014 StudyCurrent Study

30 Rigs 60 Rigs 90 Rigs

2017-2018 $ 470 $ 560 $ 600 $ 645 $ 672

2019-2020 $ 470 $ 560 $ 590 $ 607 $ 627

2021-2022 $ 486 $ 560 $ 602 $ 660 $ 668

2023-2024 $ 501 $ 558 $ 598 $ 661 $ 659

2025-2026 $ 501 $ 555 $ 583 $ 603 $ 620

2027-2036 $ 2,604 $ 2,764 $ 2,887 $ 2,916 $ 2,962

2017-2036 $ 5,034 $ 5,558 $ 5,860 $ 6,091 $ 6,206

(millions of dollars)

Study Findings – Unpaved Roads

Slide 36

Summation of Pavement Needs

pg. 38

Table of Paved Roads Results – 60 Rig

•Period

Resurfacing Cost

Widening CostReconstruction

CostMine & Blend

CostBreak & Seat

CostMaintenance

CostTotal Cost

2017-2018 $122.5 $27.2 $14.0 $15.3 $11.9 $101.3 $292.2

2019-2020 $120.4 $33.0 $20.9 $22.0 $3.8 $102.1 $302.2

2021-2022 $68.0 $6.5 $99.5 $0.2 $0.0 $103.0 $277.2

2023-2024 $69.0 $4.8 $50.8 $2.4 $4.6 $103.6 $235.2

2025-2026 $107.4 $0.0 $21.0 $0.2 $0.7 $104.6 $234.0

2027-2031 $168.5 $0.8 $1.2 $7.5 $2.0 $265.6 $445.5

2032-2036 $242.1 $5.8 $1.0 $1.4 $2.2 $215.3 $467.8

Total $898.0 $78.0 $208.4 $49.0 $25.2 $995.5 $2,254.1

• 30 Rig Scenario – $2.194 Billion

• 90 Rig Scenario - $2.268 Billion

• 2014 Study – $2.911 Billion

2016 Study ($ Millions) 2014 Study

Period Bridge Paved Unpaved Total Total

2017-2019 $88 $645 $292 $1,025 $1172

2017-2036 $449 2,254 6090 $8,793 $9086

*2014 Study costs have been moved forward to allow direct comparison against 2016 study period

First Biennium & Total Study Period Costs:Preliminary Findings & Comparison of Studies

infrastructure needs: north dakota’s county, township, & tribal roads & bridges 2017-2036

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