influence of the blended ship log book and station slp data set on mediterranean temperature &...
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![Page 1: Influence of the blended ship log book and station SLP data set on Mediterranean temperature & precipitation back to 1750 June 23 2008 Jürg Luterbacher](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081504/56649ebc5503460f94bc5288/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Influence of the blended ship log book and
station SLP data set on Mediterranean
temperature & precipitation back to 1750
June 23 2008
Jürg Luterbacher and collaboratorsOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research andInstitute of GeographyUniversity of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandEmail: [email protected]
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Introduction, why is the Mediterranean of importance?
CCA between the blended SLP data and Mediterranean winter climate 1750-2006 main patterns, trends and crossvalidation
Future scenarios
Conclusions
Outline
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Küttel et al. 2008
Network, Winter SLP 1817 after Tambora (April 1815) and Verification statistics
L L
H
Very good quality
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European Winter temperature and SLP anomalies 1817
Luterbacher et al. 2007; Fischer et al. 2007; Küttel et al. 2008
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Tambora (April 1815), produced the “year without a summer 1816”
Luterbacher et al. 2007; Fischer et al. 2007; Küttel et al. 2008
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> The area is a ‘Hot-Spot’ for which potential climate change impacts on the environment and other activity sectors are particularly pronounced
> Local/regional feedbacks (e.g. soil moisture-precipitation feedback), changes in atmospheric circulation and modes of natural variability are of importance
> Importance of hydrological cycle, winter precipitation is crucial Water resources & water quality Agriculture & environment Economics & social development & behaviour
Why is the Mediterranean of importance?
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Importance of winter precipitation compared tothe annual rainfall (in %)
Xoplaki 2002
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Data and Methods
Independent reconstructions> Gridded temperature 1750-2006, Mediterranean land areas
(Luterbacher et al. 2004, 1901-2006 Climatic Research Unit)
> Gridded precipitation 1750-2006, Mediterranean land areas(Pauling et al. 2006, 1901-2006 Climatic Research Unit)
> Gridded SLP 1750-2006, combined station pressure and CLIWOC/ICOADS data(Allan and Ansell, 2006; Küttel et al. 2008)
Method> Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)
selection of optimally correlated patterns between SLP and Mediterranean temperature & precipitation
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CCA1(SLP – temperature/precipitation 1750-2006)
dryer and warmer (North),wetter and cooler (South)
wetter and cooler (North),drier and warmer (South)
+warm
& dry
cool
& w
et
Xoplaki et al. 2008, work in progress
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CCA2(SLP – temperature/precipitation 1750-2006)
dry and warm, pos NAOI
wet and cool, neg NAOI
warm & dry
Xoplaki et al. 2008
+
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Mediterranean winter precipitation and temperature trends 1966-2006
GISS/NASA
Precipitation Temperature
Overall drying trend Overall warming trend
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Cross-validation; importance of SLP to explain Winter precipitation and temperature variability1750-2006
Xoplaki et al. 2008
Precipitation Temperature
Good skill: northern parts and Iberia Good skill: northern and eastern parts
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Impacts of recent climate change in the Mediterranean (deforestation, desertification, drought, fires …)
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A1B-Scenario for Winter 2021-2050(with respect to 1961-1990)
Giorgi and Lionello 2008
Sea Level Pressure
Temperature Precipitation
+ 2 hPa
+ 1–2°C - 10–30%
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Conclusions
> New dataset allows dynamical studies on the large scale influence on European climate back to AD 1750
> Crossvalidated results indicate good predictive skill in the north and west (precipitation) and north and east (temperature)
> Recent dry and warm winter conditions over the entire Mediterranean are not unique in the context of the past 250 years Regional differences
> Recent trend towards drier and wamer conditions seems to be exceptional
> The combined influence of two atmospheric patterns (NAO, East Atlantic / Western Russia) account significantly for the recent drier and warmer trend
> Scenarios indicate a trend towards more high pressure situations (similar patterns found through CCA) drier and warmer winter conditions Implications on environment, economy and society
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Thank you very much forThank you very much foryour attention!your attention!