Inflation Report August 2011

Output and supply

Chart 3.1 GDP and sectoral output(a)

(a) Chained-volume measures. GDP is at market prices. Indices of sectoral output are at basic prices.

Chart 3.2 Indicators of aggregate output growth

Sources: BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC, CIPS/Markit and ONS.

(a) These measures are produced by weighting together surveys from the BCC (manufacturing and services), the CBI (manufacturing, financial services, business/consumer services and distributive trades) and CIPS/Markit (manufacturing, services and construction) using nominal shares in value added. The BCC data are non seasonally adjusted. Survey measures have been scaled to match the mean and variance of GDP growth since 2000.

(b) The diamond shows July data.(c) Chained-volume measure at market prices.

Chart 3.3 Quarterly employment growth

Source: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey).

(a) The diamond shows an estimate for 2011 Q2 based on employment in the three months to May.

Chart 3.4 Average actual weekly hours(a)

Source: Labour Force Survey.

(a) Average weekly hours worked in main and second job. Rolling three-month measure.(b) A reduction in average weekly hours associated with the Golden Jubilee bank holiday will have affected data between the three months to June and the three months to August 2002. (c) A reduction in average weekly hours associated with the royal wedding bank holiday will have affected data between the three months to April and the three months to May 2011, and will

continue to affect data in the three months to June.

Chart 3.5 Four-quarter changes in employment(a)

Source: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey).

(a) Total employment changes are calculated from quarterly data. Public sector changes are calculated from data for the last month in the quarter. The private sector change is calculated as the difference between whole-economy and public sector changes.

(b) Total general government employees (excludes public sector corporations).

Chart 3.6 Labour productivity

(a) Recessions are defined as at least two consecutive quarters of falling output (at constant prices) estimated using the latest data. The recessions are assumed to end once output began to rise.

Chart 3.7 Manufacturing labour productivity

Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, ONS and Bank calculations.

(a) Based on capacity utilisation survey measures. The surveys have been adjusted so that the mean and variance matches that of an estimated gap between measured output per hour and its Hodrick-Prescott filtered statistical trend over the period 1998 Q1 to 2008 Q1. Includes measures of manufacturing capacity utilisation from the Bank’s Agents and CBI, and of non-services capacity utilisation from BCC. The BCC data are non seasonally adjusted.

(b) Calculated by projecting forward output per hour from 2008 Q2 using the average quarterly growth rate between 2003 Q2 and 2008 Q1 implied by the Hodrick-Prescott filtered statistical trend of measured output per hour.

Chart 3.8 Services labour productivity

Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI/PwC, ONS and Bank calculations.

(a) Based on capacity utilisation survey measures. The surveys have been adjusted so that the mean and variance matches that of an estimated gap between measured output per hour and its Hodrick-Prescott filtered statistical trend over the period 1998 Q1 to 2008 Q1. Includes measures of capacity utilisation from the Bank’s Agents, BCC and CBI. The CBI measure weights together financial services, business/consumer services and distributive trades surveys using shares in nominal value added. The BCC data are non seasonally adjusted.

(b) Calculated by projecting forward output per hour from 2008 Q2 using the average quarterly growth rate between 2003 Q2 and 2008 Q1 implied by the Hodrick-Prescott filtered statistical trend of measured output per hour.

Chart 3.9 Participation rate(a)

Source: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey).

(a) Percentage of the 16+ population. Three-month rolling measure.(b) Recessions are defined as in Chart 3.6.

Chart 3.10 Unemployment rates(a)

Source: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey).

(a) Rolling three-month measures unless otherwise stated.(b) Recessions are defined as in Chart 3.6.(c) Defined as those people who have been unemployed for fewer (more) than twelve months divided by the economically active population. Data prior to 1992 are based on non seasonally

adjusted, annual LFS microdata. These annual observations correspond to the March-May quarter.

Chart 3.11 Flows from unemployment to employment(a)

Sources: Labour Force Survey and Bank calculations.

(a) Based on LFS microdata that have been seasonally adjusted by Bank staff.(b) Flows into LFS employment by those who had been unemployed for fewer (more) than twelve months divided by the number of people who were unemployed for fewer (more) than

twelve months in the previous quarter.

Table

Table 3.A Selected indicators of labour market pressure

Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC and ONS (including the Labour Force Survey).

(a) Unless otherwise stated. (b) The figure for 2011 Q2 shows data for the three months to May.(c) Number of vacancies divided by LFS unemployment. Vacancies exclude agriculture, forestry and fishing. Average is since June 2001.(d) Agents’ scores for recruitment difficulties in the most recent three months compared with the situation a year earlier. End-quarter observations. The scores are on a scale of -5 to +5, with positive scores indicating greater recruitment difficulties.(e) Percentage of respondents reporting recruitment difficulties over the past three months. Non seasonally adjusted. Services and non-services balances are weighted by shares in employment.(f) Balances of respondents expecting skilled/unskilled labour to limit output/business over the next three months (in manufacturing sector) or over the next twelve months (in the financial, business and consumer services sectors), weighted by shares in employment. Averages are since 1998 Q4.