Issue N°134. 27/10/11

Industry MonitorThe EUROCONTROL bulletin on air transport trends

European flights up 2.7% in September.

ACI Europe reported that pax numbers in August grew 2 percentage points faster than flights.

IAG to launch Iberia Express from March 2012 which will operate 13 aircraft, short- and medium-haul by the end of 2012 from its Madrid hub.

Updated medium-term forecast: 2011 looks stronger, but 2012 weaker, driven by weaker economy outlook.

Oil prices in October at $110/barrel.

EUROCONTROL statistics and forecasts 1 Other statistics and forecasts 2 Passenger airlines 2 Airports 5 Environment 6 Regulation 7

Cargo 8 Oil 8 Fares 8

EUROCONTROL statistics and forecasts European flights increased by 2.7% in September although this apparent accumulation of growth was mainly due to strikes in France in 2010 (Figure 1). Greek traffic acceleration was perturbed by ATC strike on 22 September resulting in around 1,800 flights cancelled. The traditional scheduled carriers had the strongest increase out of the main market segments, with 3.7% compared to September 2010, low-cost was up 3.1% whereas charter recovered from the previous months, but was still 3% below 2010 volumes. The slowdown in cargo flights continues to lag cargo load factors and other indicators: all-cargo grew by 2.4% in September (EUROCONTROL, October). Based on preliminary data for delay from all causes, 41% of flights were delayed on departure in September, a 4 percentage point decrease on September 2010. Airline-related delays were the main contributor to primary departure delay, this proportion saw a 9 percentage point increase in share of delay minutes (Figure 2) (EUROCONTROL, October).

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The update of the medium-term forecast of flight movements 2011-20171 foresees that 2011 will end slightly above the February forecast. However, due to weaker economies the growth in 2012 is now expected to be slower, down to 2.5% from 3.4% in the February forecast (IM127). As a result, the forecast now finishes at 11.5 million flights in 2017, just below the figure published in February (EUROCONTROL, October).

Other statistics and forecasts

IATA reported that European airlines had the highest growth in air passenger demand in August, increasing by 7.9% compared to August 2010, however this figure was down when compared to the 9.3% rise in July. Total load factors for the month at a historic high of 83.9% (IATA, 3 October). ACI reported overall passenger traffic at European airports to be up 4.7% in August 2011 compared to August 2010 whereas overall aircraft movements were up 2.7% (ACI, 6 October).

Passenger airlines

Lufthansa approved the order for 12 additional aircraft; the demand will be met by Airbus (7 aircraft for Lufthansa German airlines) and Embraer (5 aircraft for Air Dolomiti). Deliveries scheduled in stages from 2012 onwards. The Group adjusted capacity growth for 2012 from 9% to 3% mostly through larger aircraft being introduced in its ongoing fleet modernisation campaign. (Lufthansa, 29 September & 27 October).

1 The Medium-Term Forecast (Flight Movements) 2011-2017, October 2011 update is available here: http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc442-MT-Flights-Sep11-v1.0.pdf

Figure 1: European Traffic.

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Percentage of flights delayed on departure

Primary Delay Distribution for September 2011(primary delay = 56%, reactionary delay = 44%)

Figure 2: Delay Statistics (all causes delay – preliminary data for September 2011).

Adria Airways to cut nine routes from its winter timetable, suspending Banja Luka, London Gatwick, Toulon, Warsaw and Paris destinations as well as Vienna – Frankfurt and Pristina – Düsseldorf routes, effective 30 October. The Slovenian national airline received a €50 million government bailout (Adria Airways, 11 October). IAG to launch Iberia Express from March 2012 which will operate 13 aircraft, short- and medium-haul by the end of 2012 from its Madrid hub. Iberia’s new subsidiary is looking for a lower-cost operation although offering business class. The Spanish Pilots Union, SEPLA threatened industrial action, calling the new subsidiary ‘illegal’ (IAG, 6 October and SEPLA, 7 October). It is reported that Ryanair outlined plans to buy between 200 and 300 new aircraft and is contacting Boeing, Comac (China) and Irkut (Russia) manufacturers to double the size of its fleet by 2021 (Financial Times, 24 October). airberlin partly postponed deliveries of its new aircraft from 2012-2013 to 2015-2016 to adapt the airline’s capacity growth to its ‘Shape & Size’ earnings improvement programme (IM132) (airberlin, 25 October). Most of the main airlines published their Winter 2011-12 schedule and it appears that 12 of the top 25 airlines are adding 270 flights per day in total, including Norwegian, Flybe and Air France. Those cutting back are mostly making smaller changes, cutting 70 flights per day between them, led by Austrian and easyJet (OAG & EUROCONTROL analysis, October). ANA operated Boeing 787 Dreamliner’s first commercial service on 26 October with a flight from Tokyo to Hong Kong . The airline confirmed it expects to take delivery of 20 B787s by end March 2013 (ANA, 26 October).

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Figure 3: Main carriers’ traffic statistics.

Routes, Alliances, Codeshares

airberlin signed its first code-share agreement with an Italian airline, Meridiana fly. Starting with the beginning of the winter schedule, the agreement will cover flights from Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, Nuremberg and Stuttgart to Bari, Brindisi, Catania, Florence, Milan, Naples, Olbia, Palermo, Rome, Venice and Verona (airberlin, 30 September). MALEV and airberlin to begin codeshare operations on routes from Budapest to Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Stuttgart and Zurich, effective 30 October (MALEV, 7 October). easyJet to expand in France with the opening of new bases at Nice and Toulouse starting next summer, with two aircraft operating from each airport adding each five new routes. The airline already serves 16 destinations from Nice and 11 from Toulouse. Air France added 13 new routes from Marseille, effective 2 October (IM132) (easyJet, 6 October and Air France, 28 September). SAS announced 21 new leisure destinations for its next summer schedule, in the frame of its “4Excellence” strategy. The airline also plans to increase frequencies on its key Norwegian domestic routes in summer 2012. (SAS, 12 October).

Etihad signed a code-share agreement with TAP providing Etihad with better connections to destinations in Portugal including Lisbon, Faro, Funchal and Porto. TAP will place its code on Etihad’s flights to/from Brussels, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Geneva, London ans Milan (Etihad, 16 October).

Ryanair to open its first Polish base at Wroclaw along with a base at Baden-Baden (Karlsruhe) in March 2012. Wroclaw will have one based aircraft and 6 new routes whereas Baden-Baden will have two based aircraft and 7 new routes (Ryanair, 19 & 25 October).

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Figure 4: Main carriers’ load factors.

Traffic statistics: September update Figure 3 and Figure 4 compare September 2011 figures with September 2010 figures. Passenger capacity is measured in available seat kilometres (ASK) and traffic is measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK).

Airports

Frankfurt inaugurated its new and 4th runway on 21 October despite postponement calls by Lufthansa in order to avoid a ban on night flights now imposed on airlines by the German court. The new runway will increase capacity by 50%, from 83 coordinated aircraft movements per hour to 126. Slot requests for the winter schedule up 8% (Fraport, 21 October).

German court confirmed the planned night flight ban between midnight and 5.00 a.m. at Berlin Brandeburg due to open in June 2012 (Bundesverwaltungsgericht, 13 October).

Heathrow published a Winter Resilience Programme detailing the improvements being made to make sure the airport is better prepared in the event of extreme weather conditions, following the severe disruptions of December 2010. Heathrow operator BAA said it had tripled the number of vehicles for snow clearance, increased the total number of staff on hand, initiated plans for a new airport control centre and improved the support and information provided to passengers during disruption (Heathrow, 29 September).

BAA decided to sell Edinburgh following the Competition Commission’s decision requiring the airport operator to sell either Edinburgh or Glasgow airports (IM132). Passenger numbers at Edinburgh have grown by 6.1% over the past 12 months and by 9.5% since the start of 2011. The sale will be agreed next summer (BAA, 19 October).

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Figure 5: Carbon prices.

The Spanish airport authority is privatising the running of 13 of its airport control towers, Ferronats, a consortium of Ferrovial and UK NATS was awarded a contract to operate 10 of the control towers at Alicante, Valencia, Ibiza, Sabadell, Sevilla, Jerez, Melilla, Madrid Cuatro Vientos, Vigo and A Coruña (NATS, 28 September).

Environment

Protest against EU ETS continues with 21 countries threatening retaliatory action and calling on ICAO to continue its effort to develop a meaningful aircraft CO2 standard with a possible implementation date of 2013.

European Court of Justice’s Advocate General released a preliminary ruling on the lawsuit brought against airlines’ inclusion in the ETS by the Air Transport Association of America (ATA) according to which the inclusion of international aviation in the EU emissions trading scheme is compatible with international law (ECJ, 7 October).

Air France completed first lowest-ever CO2 emissions passenger flight, using a 50% mix of sustainable biofuel, optimized flight procedures and reduced on-board mass (Air France, 13 October).

Iberia operated its first biofuel-powered commercial flight using an A320 from Madrid to Barcelona utilizing 25% biofuel derived from camelina (Iberia, 3 October).

The price of carbon contracts for 2014 continues to weaken, reaching €12/tonne in recent weeks (Figure 5).

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Figure 6: Brent and kerosene prices.

Regulation

The UK treasury decided that Air Passenger Duty (APD) rates on long-haul routes from Northern Ireland will be cut to the lower short-haul rate of €14 for passengers in economy and €28 for business passengers, effective 1 November (UK Treasury, October). It is reported that the German government may reduce its departure tax fees when the EU Emissions Trading Scheme enters into force on 1 January 2012. The tax could be reduced from €8 to €6.5. Germany estimates the new departure tax will raise €1 billion per year. Following the Swedish parliament’s decision to subject air traffic services in Sweden to competition, the airport operator Swedavia began procurement of these services last year but now suspended the process because of uncertainty over the services to be included. (Swedavia, 6 October). EC formally adopted a new EU consumer rights directive protecting the consumer against ‘cost-traps’ when shopping online. The benefits of the new directive are, among others, eliminate surcharges for the use of credit cards, ban pre-ticked boxes for options like travel insurance and car rental (EUROPA, 10 October).

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Cargo Cargolux finally accepted the delivery of the first two Boeing 747-8 freighters (IM133) following the resolution of contractual issues as regards the performance of the aircraft and the engines. Launch customer Cargolux has 13 B747-8 freighters on firm order (Cargolux, 12 October).

Oil Oil prices closed at around $110 per barrel on 14 October (Brent). Converted price indices for Kerosene and Brent are shown in (Figure 6).

Fares Deflated ticket prices in Europe increased by 8.2% in September year-on-year, based on preliminary values (Eurostat, 14 October).

© 2011‐ European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation EUROCONTROL) ( This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. 

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