individual_ipo
TRANSCRIPT
Contents: The opportunity Why should anyone believe this? Four Stages of Acceptance:
-‐ Stage 1: Proliferation -‐ Stage 2: Adoption -‐ Stage 3: Standardization -‐ Stage 4: Commercialization
The Individual IPO
-‐ Analogs o Progressive o FICO
-‐ Antilogs o Klout o Hyperpersonalization
-‐ Signals o The Incorporated Woman o Millenials and Privacy o The Pivot to Passive o Shawn Buckles & The World Economic Forum
Assumptions
The opportunity Smart devices are about to take a significant evolutionary step. The increase in the device’s ability to capture and quantify individual data (physical function, location an interaction), combined with early indication that technology providers see smaller business models in quantified data, can and likely will lead to the opportunity for consumers to create their own personal economy. In the future, consumers, as individuals, will have the opportunity to control, package and sell for value their own personal data. Conversely, by commercializing their own data, consumers will also have the ability to exert greater control over their personal data privacy. This is as opposed to the current consumer-‐data paradigm whereby little perceive commercial value exists at the individual level (i.e. I am an economy of me that I can leverage for my own profit) and privacy concerns tend to exist but are exchange for less tangible benefits such as perceived personalization and security. Why should anyone believe this? September 2014 will likely signal a turning point in consumer electronics. Apple is expected to go public with its wearable tech smart watch concept in addition to a revamped iPhone 6 and likely (if history is any teacher) iOS updates. The anticipation is not only palpable, but it is provocative. Competitors such as Google and Samsung have already moved to try and beat Apple to market or at the very least, claim the high ground in the conversation. Those expecting consumers to start snatching up iWatch’s (iWatch is the placeholder name) and ensuing competitors/imitators left and right may be disappointed at initial adoption. 2014 global iPhone sales and the ubiquitous iPhone brand obscure the relatively meager sales performance of the first iPhone in 2007. Whereas Apple sold almost 44 million units in Q214 alone, Q307 saw iPhone sales of just 270,000. In fact iPhone quarterly sales didn’t break the ten million units mark until Q410 – more than three years after its introduction. As David said in the movie Prometheus, “big things have small beginnings…” The evolutionary process that takes place between introduction and market absorption lays the foundation for the Individual IPO concept. Before we can understand and dimensionalize this opportunity, it’s important to visit two areas:
1. Patterns of adoptions and implementation 2. Analogs, anitlogs and signals
Four stages of acceptance: Consumers looking for a rich mobile gaming experience prior to 2007 had few real options. Monochromatic screens and small memory footprints allowed for one-‐dimensional games such as snake. Other non-‐telephony functions were similarly one-‐dimensional. Phones were, at the time, well, phones. Conversely, today, telephony is likely one of the least important elements of a mobile device. It is common knowledge that the iPhone and ensuing Android platform radically reshaped non-‐telephony device interaction and experience. Many credit innovations such as Gorilla Glass, multi-‐touch keyboards and enhanced processors with driving this transformation.
While it is true these aspects enabled the mobile device revolution, there was a much more significant force at play – one that will need to take place for wearable technology to have the same sort of success that mobile devices have experienced. Just as important was the element of standardization. Wearable technology will need to traverse four specific stages before it has the opportunity to deliver the Individual IPO concept. Stage 1: Proliferation Using the Rogers model as a starting point, we can assume a single wearable technology platform such as iWatch will need to reach a 10% to 15% marketshare before it can begin to dictate terms of engagement to the eco-‐system of third party investors and developers that will want to begin growing the system. This is roughly equivalent to absorption of “innovator” consumers and significant market penetration into “early adopter” consumers. This is when the early majority will be inspecting its more intrepid counterparts when deciding whether to get in or stay out. There are numerous sources tracking smart phone penetration as part of the mobile market with a consensus range of between 62% and 69%. While on the high end of that range, comScore was the only available resource to offer an actual enumeration. Using comScore’s hard projections for mobile device users we see a total universe of 239.5 million mobile users and 159.8 million smart device users. Using these numbers it is possible to estimate proliferation to occur once a single wearable technology platform has between 16 million and 24 million users (in today’s mobile penetration environment – projections should index for increased smart device penetration over time relative to speed to market). These aren’t just any 16 million users though. The race will be on to find 16 to 24 million differentiated users – those not merely replicating existing usage and habits that already exist on their smart device. Stage 2: Adoption A key determinant of wearable technology success will be its functional differentiation from smart devices already in market. The inevitable question all consumers will ask themselves is why they should pay hundreds of dollars for a watch if it only replicates the functionality their existing smart device. Network data providers who have traditionally subsidized the smart device market will likely ask the same question. “Don’t we already subsidize the handheld version?” With smart device penetration at 68%, it is safe to say the vast majority of consumers have at least an intermediate familiarity with device function and potential, making ongoing platform innovation incremental. The larger leaps are now the domain of the third party market makers/developers such as MonkeyParking. While it might make marketing sense to attach wearable technology as part of a larger eco-‐system, those 16 to 24 million differentiated users will not go to the brand that shows how their wearable technology is like their smart device. Rather, the race will go the brand that shows how their wearable technology is not like their smart device. Interoperability with other smart components will be convenient and in the long run may be pre-‐requisite. It will not however be determinant at the beginning.
This is not to say that traditional apps should not or will not exist on next-‐gen wearable technology. That is likely desirable. However, their presence will not be the key differentiator and those who pursue a strategy of enhancing an already existing customer experience such as smart phone apps ignore a fundamental reality. Adoption and the race to proliferation will go to the provider who understands the difference between wearable technology and smart phones/devices. Whereas smart devices offer users a whole new level of technology utility, wearable technology will offer a whole new level of physical interaction between the user and the technology. Similar to apps, heightened levels of utility are achievable on wearable technology. The fact that heightened utility already exists elsewhere excludes it from the ability to determine differentiation among users as brands race towards market dominance. In short, replicating utility will likely only inhibit adoption or potentially fracture the existing smart device market. Embracing the concept of heightened interoperability between user and technology will allow wearable technology to either stand on its own or justify existing as a part of a consumer eco system. Stage 3: Standardization While we celebrate Steve Jobs’ memory and lionize his vision, we overlook the fact that he originally tried to keep the app store off the iPhone. Yet apps are easily the defining element of all current smart devices. They offer users the ability to conform their device in an ever-‐changing way and scale it accordingly. Apps, for the user, are the difference between a cell phone and a smart phone. Apps, for the market, create standardization – a critical initial element for technology success in this category. Prior to the iPhone, mobile developers faced a daunting array of proprietary operating systems on meager platforms with no discernable point of distribution. The iPhone with its App store gave developers something to rally around as did Android much later in the game. They knew what they were programming for and how they could get their idea to market. Standardization could also be seen as consolidation as it likely means less demand for proprietary, limited functionality devices. More and more, brands such as Jawbone, Pebble and Fitbit will be forced to answer the question of what their devices provide that isn’t already provided by the more open, customizable platform. While proprietary systems may look to create interoperability and offer improved product performance, that increased performance likely will not be enough to counter the exponentially greater functionality of the open, customizable platform. We must also take into account the trade off that exists between modular flexibility and single function performance devices. Even though proprietary closed system devices may initially offer a greater singular point of performance, they remain vulnerable to the expectation that the flexible platform will improve over time. As Fast Company noted in its 3.29.14 article, “Why Nike Is (Probably) Killing the Fuelband”: “If you're surprised, you shouldn't be. Wearable fitness trackers like the Nike FuelBand are about to go the way of the dodo. “
Once the industry rallies around two to three core platform providers, developers will have a stationary target by which to plan, develop and monetize a new slate of business ideas paving the way for Commercialization. Stage 4: Commercialization Once standardization has taken place, the market will then turn towards driving newer and more innovative business models. It wasn’t until the launch of iPhone 4 I June 2010 that iPhone sales broke out paving the way for robust app development and app store growth. Since the introduction of iPhone 4 the market has seen (through Q214): 88% of global iPhone sales 92% of apps introduced to the App Store
It is important to note that the transformation from a smaller part of the consumer market playing with and auditing the product (iPhones 2, 3G, 3Gs) to the bulk of the market accepting the product (4, 4s, 5, 5s, 5c) paves the way for larger market commercialization through fast followers such as Google and its Android platform. 2009 represents the beginning of global Android sales. Predictably, 2009 and 2010 saw Android sales at 69,000,000 or 4.6% of global sales through 2013. 2011, 2012 and 2013 represented 95.4% of Android sales over that same
period repeating the trend line showing the progression from a small handful of adventurous consumers playing with the product so the broader market can peer over their shoulders and see if the product lives up to its hype.
If the iWatch and its fast follower competitors is a truly distinct product in the marketplace, it stands to reason the wearable technology category will follow this same path.
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Android
iOS
The Individual IPO At the heart of the wearable technology phenomenon is the idea of the quantified self. This is the key differentiator mentioned above. Most of the current chatter revolves around the notion of health. Health and the ability to track one’s physical movement is a sensible first approach. But it is only one of many potential opportunities wearable technology will likely offer. The concept of the individual IPO is the extreme logical end of the notion that individual consumers’ data (via the quantified self principle) has value much in the same way a company’s products or services have value. Your personal data can be merchandised on a broader marketplace for payment, discount or barter/trade. At a given point a person who has aggregated a significant amount of data can package himself or herself for an initial public offering allowing brands and marketers to bid on their information in its various forms. Your data value would rise and flow over time based on how your actions affect your perceived value. This is in contrast to today’s device/online driven world whereby user-‐generated data is generally owned and merchandised by third parties via free services such as Facebook. The discussion of the Health App offers hints as to how this may begin.
When you match the dynamic aspects of wearable technology against the dynamics of the healthcare vertical certain opportunities begin to take shape. More and more, healthcare providers in managed practices have been looking for ways to provide more consistent care with greater convenience and at a lower cost. It’s easy to conceive of a business model whereby, for a nominal regular fee, a nurse practitioner will review your data, make any notations and store it in your file as well as flagging any irregularities. This is in addition to the routine doctor’s visit. Health insurance providers could potentially pay the fee making it free of charge to the individual. Taking it a step further, we can also see the value of an independent business model whereby a health insurance provider offers a policy holder potential discounts on the grounds he stream his health information to the provider (including GPS data as well as biometric quantification). This would work as a two way street behavioral management tool for a provider looking to reduce payments and encourage healthier living. A month of nothing but strong data points could reduce a premium payment in the form of rebate at the end of the year. Conversely, a month of bad data in the form of stops at various fast food restaurants, reduced sleep levels, higher blood pressure, etc. could result in an increased premium that would be due at the end of the year. The policyholder’s actions would dictate whether he would receive a sizable policy refund at the end of the year or a massive balloon payment based on a series of very unhealthy indulgences. The individual’s daily life and
subsequent rewards or penalties in effect transforms him from a consumer to a market. Wearable technology has the potential to enable this sort of a business model. Retail fashion is one of many vertical markets that could vie for your information. Imagine the ability to make wardrobe suggestions based on the analysis of a person’s daily life. Heading out to dinner at certain restaurant followed by drinks at a specific bar? The retail brand could recommend combinations based on your personal lifestyle as well as accessing data from others who have frequented the same locations – but only if you grant it access to your information. As these personal data markets begin to add up, the individual transforms once again into a singular economy. It will be the various elements within the economy that drive the value of the Individual IPO. The fixation on the third party platform value generator model makes it easy to either overlook or misconstrue consumer awareness of the value of the data they create. It is not uncommon to hear about how consumers either don’t understand or don’t care about their own data. This couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact a recent study by SAS shows that consumer clearly understand some relative value for the data they create. Four data points from the study show an intersection of considerations:
• 71% said recent news reports have increased concerns over data privacy • 60% said they expect companies to expect their preferences and needs • 38% reported a decrease in the number of irrelevant messages they received • 59% said that businesses were getting better at personalizing messages for them
It’s clear that consumers are at some level aware their information has value and they understand they are trading the data in return for more personalization. While personalization is important in daily life, it is, at best, a secondary benefit and not always guaranteed. While there is no publicly available research to substantiate the claim, it is safe to assume that, given the choice between trading data for personalization and trading data for financial compensation, consumers would overwhelmingly choose the compensation. This is the reality that portends to upend the current data value exchange in favor of the consumer should commercialization of open-‐source wearable platforms enable the opportunity. Data privacy is a core element of understanding this opportunity. In the context of data, privacy is synonymous with control or ownership. Despite a seemingly endless stream of headlines like, “Report: NSA Used Heartbleed to Spy on People for Years” and “Some Shrug at NSA Snooping, Privacy is Dead…” there’s been little public outcry. Every subsequent release by Eric Snowden is met with a counterweight of public silence. Why is that? Is it because individuals don’t care? Is it because the technological nature of data privacy makes the issue “out of sight, out of mind?” Both of these explanations may play a smaller role. However, the larger truth is that many individuals understand they are making a trade, that they are in a market-‐based situation whereby they are trading their data privacy for perceived security against some form of attack. The common refrain when consumers are asked about snooping or eavesdropping seems to be, “I’m not doing anything wrong so why should I be worried?” This attitude is in and of itself a classic first move in the context of the Nash Equilibrium whereby two parties with equal amounts of information attempt to move towards the middle in a mutually beneficial exchange. For many who grew up pre 9-‐11, a sense of helping avert another catastrophic attach is likely more tangible and more valuable than holding onto their data which would otherwise have little value if left sitting in private.
Given the fact data has an established value in the mind of the consumer, it is important to look for three key factors to help substantiate the Individual IPO proposition:
1. Analogs: Are there already business models or products/services that have a discernable relationship to the idea?
2. Antilogs: Are there current business models that sit in opposition to the idea and how has their relative success or failure help us understand the opportunity?
3. Signals: Are there blips or potential proof points on the radar that hint at what’s to come?
Analogs: Progressive Insurance Snapshot program: Progressive has already successfully launched a program whereby policy holders trade data aggregated through a device placed inside the car for savings and discounts.
Credit Scores: FICO scores as tracked by the “Big 3” credit reporting groups already represent an exchange, albeit involuntary, of data for financial benefit. While the FICO scoring system is at best opaque and indecipherable, its bottom line is clear – the more responsible actions that can be tracked via a person’s financial data, the more financial benefits they are likely to reap as a result. The Startup of You: LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman’s book extols the notion of self as profit center whether that be in your career or as an entrepreneur. While not wholly analogous, the concept of self as value element has deep ties to the Individual IPO concept.
Antilogs: Klout: The Individual IPO is on its face the antithesis of the current third party data aggregator platform (i.e. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.). However, Klout stands out as a unique case study because it speaks directly to the data evaluation proposition and monetizes it via a supposed user-‐centric platform. But it gives itself away as being avidly pro-‐vendor with its tagline “be known for what you love.” Future Foundation’s Hyperpersonalization: Melanie Howard of The Future’s Foundation (a recognized voice in this discussion,) recently published a piece that also attempted to extrapolate the potential of quantified self data. The introduction was as follows: “In the age of the 'quantified self', in which it is possible to integrate the manifold data produced by our Facebook posts, emails, GPS and fitness logs, purchases, preferences and so on, we're beginning to get used to the idea that our data can be useful to us. Consumers are being persuaded that collecting and studying the hundreds of data points that trail behind us will help us to make personal changes to lead longer, healthier, perhaps happier lives. And companies are clearly convinced, too: Eli Lilly now claims this is its central scenario for pharmaceutical innovation over the coming decade. Biometric media means this benign fusion of person and machine will be moving to a new level – going beyond the useful to create new reflections of ourselves in the media we consume.” Ms. Howard touches upon the fact this data has a greater potential purpose, but falls short of offering a vision other than greater personalization. Wearable technology must offer more than personalization if it is to distinguish itself in the mobile device market.
Signals: The Incorporated Woman: The most tangible market signal hinting at the potential of the Individual IPO came on June 27, 2014 in the Economist article, “The Incorporated Woman.” The overarching question was, “who owns your data?”
An excerpt from the article illustrates the potential transition quantified data could usher in: “FACEBOOK, Amazon, Twitter and a host of other big companies in today’s “data-‐driven economy” share one thing in common: they make a living from harvesting personal data. Some of this data is freely given, perhaps too freely. Such issues have long troubled Jennifer Lyn Morone, an American living in London (pictured). So to regain some ownership and control of her data (and other assets related to her existence) she decided to become Jennifer Lyn Morone™ Inc (JLM), registered like all savvy corporations in Delaware. And what started out as an art project—her brief as part of a master’s degree at London’s Royal College of Art was to “design a protest”—is now transforming her into a humanoid/corporate hybrid.
JLM is an intriguing attempt to establish the value of an individual in a data-‐driven economy. As Ms Morone’s business plan describes it, JLM “derives value from three sources, and legally protects and bestows rights upon the total output of Jennifer Lyn Morone.”” Millenials and Privacy: While the broader consumer audience is ok with trading privacy for personalization or privacy for security, Millenials, the largest consumer group in the US and the fastest growing source of spending for brands, begs to differ.
In separate studies by TIME Magazine and the ACLU, researchers saw a significant divergence in the privacy tradeoff among Millenials vs Gen X and Boomers. “Fifty-‐four percent of respondents said the leaker, Edward Snowden, 29, did a “good thing” in releasing information about the government programs, which collect phone, email, and Internet search records in an effort, officials say, to prevent terrorist attacks. Just 30 percent disagreed. But an almost identical number of Americans — 53 percent — still said he should be prosecuted for the leak, compared to 28% who said he should not.
Americans aged 18 to 34 break from older generations in showing far more support for Snowden’s actions. Just 41 percent of that cohort say he should face charges, while 43 percent say he should not. Just 19 percent of that age group say the leak was a “bad thing.” There are early indications that Millenial consumers, those who are generating the most data and are most active on the current third-‐party data value platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and Klout are the most likely to desire greater control of their data. It is safe to assume that the idea of monetizing data as a means of control may make more sense than arbitrarily trusting brands to “do the right thing” with their electronic trail. The Pivot to Passive: J Walter Smith, Executive Chairman of The Futures Company (formerly Yankelovich) makes a case that by all rights should be placed in the Anitlogs category. Except that in the midst of arguing that most consumers are becoming more passive due to the proliferation of sensor-‐based technology (which is inherently antithetical to the Individual IPO idea) he makes a very important point. In a smartly-‐worded opinion piece Smith argues for a return to a time before the Internet based on passive sensor data collection and the advent of novel technologies such as the self-‐driving Google car. In Smith’s future only “hyper-‐compulsive, technologically obsessed men – who are willing and able to volunteer their time to an open source project” will exert any real control on what goes on with their data. He supports this hypothesis with some very hard to dispute observations:
-‐ Better tailoring experiences means relinquishing control to marketers -‐ Average consumers have become bored with most data generating platforms -‐ The proliferation of sensor based technologies will pacify consumers
But Smith supports his theory by fighting one anachronism with another: “Soon, little will go unrecorded by the 'internet of things', a network far larger and much faster-‐growing than the 'internet of people', encompassing not just data flows among objects, but those between people and objects or sensors Contrast this with the classic advertising world remembered in AMC's hit show, Mad Men. In episode after episode, creative director Don Draper sits alone in his office, whiskey in hand, inventing from whole cloth the marketplace in which consumers will live. It's fiction embellished for dramatic effect, but as a picture of the days of yore, when marketers were in control, it provides a realistic point of contrast.
Ye t this contrast is outdated. What's germane for tomorrow's marketplace was foreshadowed unintentionally by Time when it placed 'You' on its cover against a background image of a desktop screen. Passive digital engages consumers very differently from active digital. A screen demands active engagement. Consumers must touch it, key information into it, and be involved with it in many ways. Sensors perform passive monitoring. Consumers do little, often nothing. Sensors detect, report and trigger. What digital technologies can do now to capture the moment was impractical and unaffordable in years past. Soon, though, little will go unrecorded by the 'internet of things', a network far larger and much faster-‐growing than the 'internet of people', encompassing not just data flows among objects, but those between people and objects, or sensors, too.” Smith’s logic, which is not uncommon in the marketplace, assumes consumers are passive participants in the marketplace when in reality they have clearly demonstrated not only an clear knowledge of some tangible value for their data, but also a generational shift in attitudes towards greater emphasis on protecting that value. Contrary to Smith’s cynical dystopian future, consumer signals tell us that they will likely be less inclined to freely hand over their information rather than letting it be passively collected. Smith as archetype for a more cynical view on the future of data collection not only undercuts the collective hope for quantified self, it signals a reversion in the face of greater human-‐machine interface. The commonality of this perspective can, in a way, be seen as a confirmation of the opportunity. Smith is likely correct in his view about the ubiquity of sensor technology in the not too distant future. And this bodes well for the Individual IPO concept as they will act as data collection points throughout the larger physical network. Consumers already live with a bevvy of sensors in their daily life such as video cameras, store theft detectors and the like. F
Shawn Buckles & The World Economic Forum:
In a 2011 report the World Economic Forum postulated in its report, “Personal Data: the Emergence of a New Asset Class” how ever escalating data profiles may become “the new oil” for individuals. “This personal data – digital data created by and about people – is generating a new wave of opportunity for economic and societal value creation. The types, quantity and value of personal data being collected are vast: our profiles and demographic data from bank accounts to medical records to employment data. Our Web searches and sites visited, including our likes and dislikes and purchase histories. Our tweets, texts, emails, phone calls, photos and videos as well as the coordinates of our real-‐world locations. The list continues to grow. Firms collect and use this data to support individualised service-‐delivery business models that can be monetised. Governments employ personal data to provide critical public services more efficiently and effectively. Researchers accelerate the development of new drugs and treatment protocols. End users benefit from free, personalized consumer experiences such as Internet search, social networking or buying recommendations. And that is just the beginning. Increasing the control that individuals have over the manner in which their personal data is collected, managed and shared will spur a host of new services and applications. As some put it, personal data will be the new “oil” – a valuable resource of the 21st century. It will emerge as a new asset class touching all aspects of society.”
With this in mind the British paper The Guardian reported on how a Dutch student decided to get out ahead of his data being sold in bulk on the cheap and instead sold his “digital soul” for a greater amount. “Dutch student Shawn Buckles has tackled the issue head on with his decision to sell his data soul at auction. He received £288 from website The Next Web. He says that the website will use his data to highlight privacy issues at their next conference. Buckles' data bundle included all sorts of private information -‐ everything from browsing data to email conversations. A sum like £288 is obviously not to be sniffed at, but can anyone receive such a payoff? Buckles told us: I’ve read that a persons’ data goes for under 50 cents at the moment, so I reckon I’ve added lots of value to my data. On the other hand, I’ve sold my most intimate information. I don’t know if there’s any fair amount for that. Buckles is right: when your data is sold, no one receives that kind of money for it. This is because brands don’t buy individual data, they buy individuals’ data in bundles and that makes it very cheap.” When one considers the massive leap forward quantified data will likely make, it stands to reason that one has the ability to not only gain greater control over his or her data, but potentially turn the tables on the current third-‐party aggregation/monetization scheme.
Assumptions: It is important to visit critical assumptions that lay the groundwork for this idea.
1. The quantified self/wearable technology application will look, act and feel distinct from current smart devices. This is as opposed to Samsung’s earlier attempt to market a smart watch, which has little functionality let alone little differentiating customization. If the iWatch is merely a portal to stream texts, IM, Bluetooth and other pre-‐existing applications, wearable technology will become an add on versus a commercial platform.
2. The form factor develops to accommodate intense, multi-‐application functionality like current smart devices.
3. Developers see the same monetization opportunity they saw in iPhone and Android.
4. The data being captured can be monetized at a level that entices consumers into participating.
5. Interaction with external sensor-‐based technology such as iBeacon will become natural and not creepy or invasive.
Recommendation: In as much as timing is everything, it would appear developers and brands looking to engage this opportunity will have at least a brief window during proliferation and adoption to engage in research and development. The time horizon could possible extend further out given the radical change this could represent and the time it would take for most consumers to adapt to and engage with this way of life. With this in mind, it would be prudent for brands to begin auditing its data exchange compensation model it currently shares with consumers and test alternate models that more closely align with this direction so they are prepared to go to market when this shift begins to take place. Additional next steps: -‐ Business category evaluation to identify those most likely to benefit from this
direct payment method in the near term. -‐ Hypothesize and articulate additional business model concepts outside those
listed in this document. -‐ Model the physical/technological transaction on a per brand basis as a first step
prototype.