DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Rolls out Energy

Intensity Website

DOEDOE’’s Office of Energy Efficiency and s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Rolls out Energy Renewable Energy Rolls out Energy

Intensity WebsiteIntensity Website

Joseph M. RoopPacific Northwest National Laboratory

Presented to the26th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference

September 26, 2006

PNNL-SA-49837

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CONTENTSCONTENTSCONTENTS

1) A New System of Energy Intensity Indicators

2) Design Considerations

3) Design Criteria

4) Results: Introduction to Intensity Trends

5) Results: Sector Measures

1) Economy as a whole2) Industry3) Buildings 4) Transportation (In Detail)

6) The Rollout

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A NEW “SYSTEM OF ENERGY INTENSITY INDICATORS”

A NEW A NEW ““SYSTEM OF ENERGY SYSTEM OF ENERGY INTENSITY INDICATORSINTENSITY INDICATORS””

Recognizes that use of energy services depend on factors other than energy efficiency

Notes that very aggregate intensity indicators include many structural effects that can distort energy intensity measures (e.g., aggregate E/GDP)

Hence, we have developed a “system of indicator measures” (e.g., a diverse set of multiple indicators) constructed at a disaggregate level

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NEW SYSTEM OF ENERGY INTENSTY INDICATORS (Continued)

NEW SYSTEM OF ENERGY NEW SYSTEM OF ENERGY INTENSTY INDICATORS INTENSTY INDICATORS (Continued)(Continued)

Indicator system disentangles component energy intensity measures from structural effects, and to the extent possible, captures other important separate effects, such as weather and other explanatory factors.Behavioral efficiency (i.e., the efficiency in which consumers use energy technologies and products)

Includes a collection of useful measures of component energy intensityAlso presents activity, structural and explanatory factors to help clarify the relative contribution of different factors that influence energy intensity change over time.

In this way, non-technical factors are not credited as efficiency improvements

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US DOE/EERE INDICATORS WEB SITEUS DOE/EERE INDICATORS WEB SITEUS DOE/EERE INDICATORS WEB SITE

Current URL: http://intensityindicators.pnl.gov/Current URL: Current URL: http://intensityindicators.pnl.gov/http://intensityindicators.pnl.gov/

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Flexible Structure & Design for Broad Audience

Flexible Structure & Design for Flexible Structure & Design for Broad AudienceBroad Audience

Flexible structure:Nested indicators (aggregate up to total economy)Add or change elements (e.g., cogeneration, hybrid or fuel cell vehicles)

Intended users: General publicEnergy economistsEnergy program administratorsPolicy analysts & researchers (public or private sector)

Allows public and private analysts alike to consistently evaluate changes in U. S. energy use over time.

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NEW SYSTEM OF ENERGY INTENSTY INDICATORS (Continued)

NEW SYSTEM OF ENERGY NEW SYSTEM OF ENERGY INTENSTY INDICATORS INTENSTY INDICATORS (Continued)(Continued)

A diverse collection of indicators are created for the five key energy-consuming sectors

TransportationIndustry (manufacturing, with detail to the 3-digit level, but no additional detail for mining, construction, and agriculture)Residential buildingsCommercial buildingsElectricity production

A hierarchical framework is employed that develops disaggregate energy indicators at the sector/sub-sector level that can be nested upwards to link to GDP

Methods used preserve the completeness of the accounting system

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Energy Intensity Indicatorsare organized in a hierarchal manner

Energy Intensity Indicatorsare organized in a hierarchal manner

A hierarchical framework is employed that develops disaggregate energy indicators at the sector/sub-sector level that can be nested upwards to link to GDPMethods used preserve the completeness of the accounting systemThe method used to construct the indices is formally known as the “log mean Divisia” index (further detail on the web site).

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NEW SYSTEM OF ENERGYINTENSTY INDICATORS (Continued)

NEW SYSTEM OF ENERGYNEW SYSTEM OF ENERGYINTENSTY INDICATORS INTENSTY INDICATORS (Continued)(Continued)

Builds a flexible accounting structure that:allows nesting of measures up the indicators pyramidallows alternative services, industry detail, and modesallows possible new modes to be added at a later date (e.g., cogeneration, emerging alternative vehicles like hybrids, fuel cell cars, etc.)

Relies principally on federal data systems

Developed for users such as energy economists, energy program administrators, policy analysts and researchers in public and private sector organizations

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DESIGNED FOR USABILITYDESIGNED FOR USABILITYDESIGNED FOR USABILITY

Designed to be useful and make sense to an informed, but not necessarily expert, audience of analysts/researchers who undertake analyses in support of policy and program decision making in thepublic or private sector

Usefulness is enhanced because the indicator system will have some explanatory power that goes beyond just the accounting aspects

Results reporting will seek to guard against misuse of indicators by intended users

Both results and accompanying input data will be made publicly available on the web

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USES/BENEFITSUSES/BENEFITSUSES/BENEFITS

Analyze overall energy intensity trends and components of change to aid broad-level policy assessmentProvide some understanding of underlying changesSupport energy planning and programmatic applications by public & private organizations (e.g., program evaluation)Assess progress towards goals, including national energy efficiency, energy security, or carbon intensityComplement best practice ‘frontier’ analysisContribute to international comparisons

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FIVE MAJOR DESIGN CRITERIAFIVE MAJOR DESIGN CRITERIAFIVE MAJOR DESIGN CRITERIA

Useful – provide useful information on changes in energy intensity, and usefully contribute to a range of different analysis applications

Understandable – measures are clearly defined, practical, recognized and interpretable by most intended users

Technically-sound -- in the sense that the basic principles and index construction methods of the indicators are theoretically sound and accepted by outsider experts and specialists

Transparent and based on readily available data – primary data sources that are routinely collected and available form the basis for the indicators data system (i.e., from Federal data sources – like EIA, BTS, BEA, etc.), and, as necessary, reliable secondary sources.

Measures can be updated regularly – such as, be annually updated using primary data or by interpolating between benchmark years with clear procedures for how to undertake the interpolation (and with periodic revision) as is done in other Federal agencies such as BEA.

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Updated 2003/2004 ResultsUpdated 2003/2004 ResultsUpdated 2003/2004 Results

Long-term trendsFour sector, “total energy” intensitiesFive sector “primary energy” intensities

IndustryTransportationResidential buildingsCommercial buildingsElectricity Generation

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Aggregate Intensity, 1985-2004Aggregate Intensity, 1985Aggregate Intensity, 1985--20042004

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Sector Intensity Detail, 1985-2004Sector Intensity Detail, 1985Sector Intensity Detail, 1985--20042004

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Delivered Energy Intensity, 5 SectorsDelivered Energy Intensity, 5 SectorsDelivered Energy Intensity, 5 Sectors

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Decomposition of Intensity DeclineTotal Economy

Decomposition of Intensity DeclineDecomposition of Intensity DeclineTotal EconomyTotal Economy

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Industry Energy IntensityIndustry Energy IntensityIndustry Energy Intensity

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Industry Structural ShiftsIndustry Structural ShiftsIndustry Structural Shifts

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Residential Energy IntensityResidential Energy IntensityResidential Energy Intensity

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Commercial Energy IntensityCommercial Energy IntensityCommercial Energy Intensity

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Example: Transportation Sector DetailExample: Transportation Sector DetailExample: Transportation Sector Detail

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Transportation Energy IntensityTransportation Energy IntensityTransportation Energy Intensity

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Passenger Energy IntensityPassenger Energy IntensityPassenger Energy Intensity

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Passenger Structural ShiftsPassenger Structural ShiftsPassenger Structural Shifts

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Highway Passenger Energy IntensityHighway Passenger Energy IntensityHighway Passenger Energy Intensity

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Autos & Light Trucks Energy IntensityAutos & Light Trucks Energy IntensityAutos & Light Trucks Energy Intensity

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Passenger Air Energy IntensityPassenger Air Energy IntensityPassenger Air Energy Intensity

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Freight Energy IntensityFreight Energy IntensityFreight Energy Intensity

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Transportation Sector DetailTransportation Sector DetailTransportation Sector Detail

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Roll Out Through DOE/EERE HomeRoll Out Through DOE/EERE HomeRoll Out Through DOE/EERE Home

Web site slated to be highlighted on EERE home page. With hot links to the siteAnnouncements in a number of energy-related trade publicationsPresentations and booths at energy-related conferencesConference packet contains a recent brochureExpectation is that numbers will be revised every year or two, depending on available structural detailsGenerally available to anyone with an interestWill track visits to see the level of interest