india’s approach to climate change
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India’s Approach To Climate Change. Surya P. Sethi Principal Adviser Energy Infraline Energy Round Table May 7, 2008. The Structure Of The Presentation. A look at the Real India Emission Reduction Targets – A Reality Check India's Contribution To Mitigation To Date - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
India’s Approach To Climate
Change
Surya P. SethiPrincipal Adviser EnergyInfraline Energy Round
TableMay 7, 2008
The Structure Of The Presentation
A look at the Real India
Emission Reduction Targets – A Reality Check
India's Contribution To Mitigation To Date
Sustainability Concerns
India’s Current Energy & Climate Change Policy Framework
Key Messages
A Look At The Real India
Ground Zero
Total Primary Energy Supply in 2005-06: 510 MTOE
Energy Mix: Coal & Lignite – 37.9%, traditional biomass-28.6%, oil-23.9%, gas-6.9%, hydro-1.7% and nuclear-1.0%.
Primary Commercial Energy Consumption 365 MTOE in 2005-06
India’s share of global commercial energy supply in 2005 was 3.7%. Top 5 consume over 50% led by US at 22.2% and China at 14.7% followed by Russia, Japan and Germany.
India’s per capita commercial energy consumption is about 20% of the world average, 4% that of the US and 28% that of China
Source: IEA, BP and Planning Commission
The Energy Challenge
Some 600 million fellow Indians live without electricity.
Over 75% of household energy consumption is for the basic human need of cooking. Traditional biomass is the primary cooking fuel for over 700 million fellow Indians.
34.7% and 79.9% population below income level of $1 and $2 a day respectively
Lack of access to commercial energy leads to Illiteracy, Gender Inequality/Disempowerment, High IMR and MMR, Poor Health & and hence a low HDI.
Over the next 25 years India needs to lift the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of economic & social well being – this will not happen without providing modern energy to these fellow Indians.
India’s Development Goals
1. Reduce the poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 10 percentage points by 2012
2. Provide gainful and high-quality employment to the labor force
3. Ensure all children complete 5 years of schooling
4. Reduce dropout rates of children from elementary school from 52.2% in 2003-04 to 20% by2011-12
5. Increase literacy rate 75% by 2007 and to 85% by 2012
6. Reduce gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at least 10% by 2012
7. Reduce the decadal rate of population growth between 2001-2011 to 16.2%
India’s Development Goals
7. Reduce the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 45 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 28 by 2012
8. Reduce the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 2 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 1 by 2012
9. Increase the forest and tree cover to 25% by 2007 and 33% by 2012
10. Provide clean drinking water for all by 2009
11. Electricity for all by 2012
12. Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified stretches by 2012
Development—The Best Adaptation Tool
Health10.8%
Forest conservation0.5%
Risk financing4.8%
Disaster management3.5% Poverty alleviation and
livelihood preservation44.7%
Crop improvement and research
5.9%Draught proofing and
flood control3.0%
Rural education and infrastructure
26.9%
Key Components Of Adaptation Outlays In 2006-07
Share Of Adaptation In Total Govt. Expenditure:
1997-98: 7%; 2006-07: 13%
Adaptation Outlays As A Percentage Of GDP:
1997-98: 1.6%; 2006-07: 2.6%
India’s Energy Imperatives To Support 8% + Growth
India’s primary energy supply to grow by 4.3-5.1% to reach 1536 to 1887 MTOE by 2031-32 for GDP growth of 8%+.
India’s share of world fossil fuel supply in 2005 was 3.7%. This could become 7.6 to 10.9% by 2031-32.
India’s incremental requirement could account for 13-21% of the world’s incremental supply by 2031-32.
India would need to tap all available energy supplies and pursue all available and emerging energy technologies.
Above all India must lower energy demand through energy conservation and higher energy efficiency
Emission Reduction Targets – A Reality
Check
CO2 Emissions - 2005
2005 CO2
emission (million tons)
2005 populatio
n (million)
2005CO2
emission/Capita (tons)
I. OECD 13548 1166 11.62
II. Countries with emission > 3 tons/capita/annum
11515 2064 5.58
Sub-total (I+II) 25063 3230 7.76
III. Low emitters 3130 3215 0.97
Total 28193 6445 4.37Assuming zero emissions from low emitters, 57.2 % reduction would be required from I & II to deliver 50 % of 1990 CO2 emission. Source: EIA, UN data base.
Per Capita Convergence In 2050 With
Total CO2 Emissions At 50 % of 1990 level @2050
CO2 emission (million tons)
Reduction over 2005 CO2
emission (%)
2050populatio
n(million)
I. OECD 1539 88.64 1327
II. Countries with emission > 3 tons/ capita/annum
2721 76.37 2346
Sub-total (I+II) 4260 83.00 3673
III. Low emitters 6462 -106.49 5571
Total 10722 61.97 9244
@ This translates to 1.16 tons/capita in 2050. Source: EIA, UN data base.
Per Capita Convergence In 2050 With
Total CO2 Emissions At 2005 Level @
2050 CO2
emission (million tons)
Reduction over 2005
CO2 emission
(%)
2050populatio
n(million)
I. OECD 4046 70.13 1327II. Countries with emission > 3 tons/ capita/annum
7154 37.87 2346
Sub-total (I+II) 11200 55.31 3673III. Low emitters 16992 -442.93 5571Total 28192 0 9244@ This translates to 3.05 tons/capita in 2050. Source: EIA, UN data base.
India's Contribution To Mitigation To Date
Sustainable Lifestyles
Sustainable Production
CO2 emission from food sector- - from Field (production) to Table
(processed food)- excluding cooking
0.12
1.70 1.801.90
2.012.20
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
I ndia United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Australia United Stateston
CO
2/m
kca
l of
foo
d e
nerg
y
Production related CO2 emission (tonne CO2/ million kcal of f ood energy)
Processing related CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/ million kcal of f ood energy)Total CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/ million kcal of f ood energy)
Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)
CO2 Emissions From Food Production & Food Processing
Estimated CO2 Emissions From Passenger Transport (gm/passenger-km)
16
118
193
050
100150200250
I ndia EU (15
countries)
USA
Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources
Municipal Solid Waste
3047.3 53
70
0
50
100
US Germany J apan I ndia
Average rate of recycling (%) (excl. re-use)
4810
23
0
10
20
30
USA UK Germany I ndia
GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp)
Source: TERI Analysis, based on National Communications of different countries
Per-capita Consumption Levels Per-unit Of Inhabited
Land Area
1 43 451794
1599
1907
74 220.4
630
456
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Aluminium Cement Steel
(thousa
nd t
onnes/
capit
a/sq
. kilom
etr
es)
I ndia J apan EU- 15 USA
India ranks the lowest
CO2 Emissions from Key Material Inputs for Infrastructure
Development CO2 emissions in Cement, I ron and Steel and
Aluminum
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
(million m
etric
tonnes)
BAU S1
1771
S1 Scenario assumes India matches consumption levels of EU 15 on a per capita per square kilometer bases for Aluminum, Cement & Steel by 2031-32.
Co2 emissions increase from 1251 million tons (BAU) to 3022 million tons (S1) in 2031 Increase of 1771 million tons in S1 relative to BAU in 2031
G Cal / tcs
9.3
9.08.9
8.88.7 8.7
8.48.3
8.18.0 7.9
7.77.6 7.5
7.3
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
199
0-9
1
199
1-9
2
199
2-9
3
199
3-9
4
199
4-9
5
199
5-9
6
199
6-9
7
199
7-9
8
199
8-9
9
199
9-0
0
20
00
-01
20
01-
02
20
02
-03
20
03
-04
20
04
-05
Specific Energy Consumption in Integrated Steel Plants
Source: Steel Authority of India Ltd.
22% reduction in
SEC from 1990-91 to
2004-05
Actual impact
higher as share of
D/R rising
SEC Trend Of The Aluminum Sector
(Source: BEE, 2007)
111 112 110
104 105102
97
91 8984 83 82
63 65
117120 122
60
80
100
120
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
Energy Consumption Profile(Dry Process - Wtd. Avg.)
650663
723
876857 846
816 815801
780 779 771 763 750742 734 729
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
TH
ER
MA
L
EN
ER
GY
KC
AL/K
G C
L.
ELEC
TR
ICA
LEN
ER
GY
KW
H/T
CEM
EN
T
BEST IN INDIA
BEST IN WORLD
Source: CMA
WET KILNS: INDIA 5% US 18%
SHARE OF BLENDED CEMENT OVER 60%
Trends in Energy Consumption of Ammonia & Urea Plants
12.48
8.87
9.3
6.59
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Gca
l/to
n
AMMONIA UREA
25% REDUCTION
26% REDUCTION
World’s Best: 7.0 Gcal/ton of Ammonia
India’s Best: 7.2 Gcal/ton of Ammonia
FAI Target: 6.5 Gcal/ton of Ammonia
Already average of top 25% ammonia plants more efficient then world’s top 25% plants
Source: Fertiliser Association of India (FAI)
Process-wise Share Of Installed Capacity Of Caustic
Soda In IndiaMEMBARANE CELL PROCESS HAS LOWEST SEC
WESTERN EUROPE: MERCURY CELL SHARE 55%
USA: DIPHRAGM PROCESS SHARE 75%,
INDIA: CURRENT MEMBARANE CELL SHARE 75%
SEC OF INDIAN CAUSTIC SODA PRODUCTION IS 36% BELOW USA (Source: LBNL, 2005)
Global Benchmarking Of Refineries-Shell
Source: Shell Global benchmarking study in ‘Energy & Loss’ performance
India’s Energy Intensity Falling
Energy intensity of GDP (kgoe/$ 2000 PPP)
based on IEA data
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.3519
71
198
0
199
0
199
9
2001
2003
2005
TPE
S (
kgoe
)/G
DP
($2000
PPP)
India Is NOT Following The Fuelish Path of Industrialized
Countries
India’s Emission’s Performance
Source: EIA &UNDP HDR
1999 2005CAGR (%)
GDP US$ Billion PPP 2242.0 3779.0 9.1
Emissions MT of CO2 934.8 1165.7 3.7
Kg of CO2/US$GDP PPP 0.42 0.31 -4.9
Kg of CO2/Capita 0.95 1.07 2.0
World Bank Assessment Of India’s Relative Emission’s
Performance India is a relatively low carbon economy
India has been offsetting its CO2 emissions growth resulting from growth in population and high GDP growth by lowering energy intensity and improving the carbon intensity of its fuel mix
India has achieved these offsets despite a low initial emission level and against a backdrop of increasing CO2 intensity world wide between 1999-2004
Most independent projections indicate that India’s CO2 intensity is likely to continue to decline through 2030-2050
Sectoral CDM Potential During 2012-17
(Power, Iron & Steel, Cement)
63
179
309
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Cement Steel Power
Mill
ion
tonn
es o
f CO
2
CO 2 Emissions reduction potential of about 550 million tonnes during 2012-17
Highest emissions reduction potential is in the power sector (309 MT)
Additional Investment Requirements For Mitigation In the Selected Sectors, Vis-a-Vis
Select Development Outlays Of GOI For Tenth Plan
Additional investment requirements of US$ 25.1 Billion (at 2001 Prices) including $ 22.3 billion of positive mitigation cost options
17.0
5.7
2.4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Billi
on $ Cement
Steel
Power
13.0
6.9
1.4
3.2
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Billi
on $
Ministry ofEnvironment andForests
Department ofWomen and ChildDevelopment
Department ofElementaryEducation andLiteracy
Department ofRural Development
similar order of magnitude as plan support for meeting social and environmental development targets
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Power, Steel and Cement
Sectors (All options) [For 2012-17]
Total additional investment requirement : 25.1 billion US$ For options with positive mitigation cost total additional investment
requirement : 22.3 billion US$ Mitigation cost is highest for SPV: 925.8 $/tonne . This has not been plotted
No. Technology Mitigation cost
($/ tonne) 1 Renovation and modernization - ve
2 Blended cement production - ve 3 Retrofi t-EAF - ve 4 Retrofi t of 4 stage to 6 stage - ve 5 Retrofi t of 5 stage to 6 stage - ve
6 Retrofi t- BF-BOF Effi cient 1.7 7 Coal ultra supercritical 17.4 8 BF-BOF Best available technology 19.6
9 Cogeneration (cement plant) 20.8 10 Small hydro 29.1 11 I GCC based on I mported Coal 45.0 12 H-f rame CCGT 45.4
13 I GCC based on I ndigenous Coal 52.9 14 Biomass gasifi er 60.0 15 Wind turbine 63.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Million tonnes of CO2 reduced
$/t
onne
No-regret Options Under Capital Constraints
In respect of GHG mitigation, refers to options that are of economic benefit even without GHG mitigation considerations.
Implies both reduced cost of energy service, and zero incremental investment cost.
Depends upon specific project situation, and cannot be generalized to an entire sector/economy!
Sustainability Concerns
Different CGE Models run with same scenarios give widely varying results
(e.g. Indian share of global emissions)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
%
2000 2050 2100
Different CGE Models Reference Scenario
GTEM
merge-hc
merge-lc
DNE21
IMAGE2.2
MARIA
EPPA
AIM
MiniCam
SGM
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
2000 2050 2100
Different CGE Models 550 ppmv Scenario
GTEM
merge-hc
merge-lc
DNE21
IMAGE2.2
MARIA
EPPA
AIM
MiniCam
SGM
Source: Weyant & Parikh, 2004
Qualitative Result: Carbon Intensity of GDP for India
Source: Weyant & Parikh, 2004
Impact Of Some Of India’s Energy Policies (2001-31)
Baseline (BAU): Base year 2001, GDP growth 8%, Official demographic projections, IPCC emissions factors, 8% discount rate
Policy Initiatives Over Baseline Assumptions: S1: Cleaner fuels for power generation S2: Electricity for all by 2012, decentralized
renewable options and efficient cook stoves S3: 20% increase in share of public road transport
Greater use of CNG in buses, taxis, 3-W vehicles S4: S1+S2+S3
S5: Same as Baseline but annual GDP growth rate 6.7%
Comparison of Energy Supply Intensity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
PJ
/Bil
lio
n U
S$
Baseline S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
Change in India’s CO2 intensity as a result of Government policy
initiatives
CO2 Intensity
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Years
MM
T/B
illi
on
US
$
Baseline S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
TERI analysis
CO2 intensity (MMT/Billion US $)
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Baseline 2.71 2.62 2.23 1.90 1.62 1.38 1.20
S1 2.71 2.24 1.88 1.61 1.36 1.18 1.06
S2 2.71 2.13 1.84 1.68 1.55 1.38 1.20
S3 2.71 2.61 2.20 1.86 1.57 1.31 1.13
S4 2.71 2.05 1.57 1.47 1.30 1.11 0.99
S5 2.71 2.61 2.19 1.84 1.58 1.36 1.18
TERI analysis
India’s Current Energy & Climate Change Policy Framework
Decoupling Energy Growth From GDP Growth & Managing
Energy MixPolicies to limit TPE growth to 4.3-5.1% for 8%+ GDP
growth (2005/6: 510 MTOE; 2031/32: 1536-1887 MTOE)
Fuel mix ranges under 11 scenarios 2031-32 2005-06
MTOE % MTOE %Coal 632-
102241.1-54.1 193 37.9
Oil 350-486 22.8-28.7 122 23.9Non-Commercial
185-185 9.8-12.0 145 28.6
Gas 104-197 5.5-11.0 35 6.9Nuclear 76-98 4.0-6.4 5 0.9Hydro 13-35 0.7-2.2 9 1.7Renewables 2-87 0.1-5.6 <2 0.1
India’s Approach In The Global Context
Country TPES Per Capita (Kgoe)-
2005
TPES /GDP (Kgoe/$-2000 PPP)-
2005Russia 4520 0.47China 1320 0.22US 7890 0.21Germany 4180 0.16Japan 4150 0.15Brazil 1120 0.15
India 468 0.15UK 3880 0.14Denmark 3620 0.12World 1780 0.21
INDIA 2031-32 1065-1279 At Par With Best
Source : IEA. For India: actual for 2005-06; IEP estimates for 31-32
Reforming Energy Markets Remove entry barriers and raise competition in
exploration, extraction, conversion, transmission & distribution of primary and secondary energy
Institute price reform. Full competition at point of sale. Net back pricing for non-traded energy if domestic market not competitive
Tax reform to promote optimal fuel choices.
Augment and diversify energy options, sources and energy infrastructure
Strengthen or introduce independent regulation
Instituting Energy Policies That Support
Mitigation/Efficiency Force conservation & restrict demand growth through
high energy taxes
Energy/Power sector reforms to raise energy extraction, conversion transmission & distribution efficiency
Promote hydro, nuclear and renewable energy
Promote clean coal technologies
Improve highways, build mass transit & freight corridors
Promote less carbon intensive fuel for transport
Standards, labeling & bench marking for energy efficiency
Enforce environmental quality management
Specific Initiatives To Further Mitigation /
Efficiency Sector Options Issues
Power IGCC, Ultra super-critical, Nuclear
Technology for high ash coal; Performance risk perceptions; Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Renewables Solar PV, Wind, Solar thermal, and Biomass
High capital cost/ intermittent power availability, Technology
Transport Higher rail haulage, Mass Transit, Track Electrification, Water ways, Vehicle efficiency standards, Biofuels
Infrastructural requirements; High capital investments; Food security, Livelihood concerns
Residential/Commercial
Green buildings, DSM, efficient appliances, cogeneration
Technology, Diffusion of knowledge & information, Higher capital cost
Industry Energy audits, Energy efficient processes
Lack of technology, capital and knowledge in SMEs, Replicating success stories
Policy Focus On R&D And Science Of Climate Change
Advanced coal technologies: IGCC, Ultra critical, In-situ gasification, CBM, CCS & Zero emissions & Combustion Research Initiative. Gas hydrates & Hydrogen
Nuclear: closed fuel cycle & breeder/thorium reactors
Solar Thermal, Solar PV, Biomass gasifiers & Bio-fuels
Energy storage systems
Energy efficient technologies across sectors
Climate modeling, super computing & researching current & future adaptation practices/technologies
Policy Focus On Adaptation
Enhance resource conservation through improved management of watersheds, forests, Coastal Zones etc.
R&D and technological innovation for development of tolerant cultivars
Innovative demand-driven technology delivery systems for stakeholders
Better risk management strategies including involvement of insurance industry, esp. for crops
Promoting alternative livelihood options
Key Messages
Key Messages
India, the world’s fourth largest economy, is also home to a third of the world’s poor without access to modern commercial energy
India’s development goals are closely aligned with the MDGs. Delivering these goals requires more energy
India’s patterns of production and consumption are sustainable.
India’s energy intensity and emissions intensity is comparable to the best in the world
India has put in place a policy framework that supports sustainable development, mitigation and adaptation
Key Messages (Contd…)
Current responses to climate variability entail significant public expenditure & personal cost to individuals
Further diversion of limited national resources from development and poverty alleviation to mitigation & Adaptation will impact GDP growth & poverty alleviation
Even low or negative economic cost options impose large incremental investments under severe capital constraints
India is delivering upon all obligations seen for developing countries under the UNFCC framework.
Additional resources & technologies required to be made available by industrialized countries as per UNFCCC, Article 4.7 are essential for further deployment of low carbon technologies and for adaptation
Key Messages (Contd…)
India seeks a regime that permits access to available low carbon technologies and IPRs on concessional terms
India seeks collaborative research to leverage its own efforts in future low carbon technologies with a sharing of IPRs
India seeks long-term convergence of per capita emissions. The honourable Prime Minister of India has confirmed India’s determination to never exceed the emissions of industrialised countries under such a trajectory.
Be The Change You Want To See In
The World
Be The Change You Want To See In
The World