sustainable development indicators relevant to climate change: india’s experience
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Sustainable Development Indicators relevant to Climate Change: India’s Experience. Prodipto Ghosh, Ph.D Distinguished Fellow The Energy & Resources Institute UNDESA: Expert Group Meeting 15-16 October 2008. Outline of Presentation. The name of the game! - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Sustainable Development Indicators relevant to Climate Change: India’s ExperienceProdipto Ghosh, Ph.DDistinguished FellowThe Energy & Resources InstituteUNDESA: Expert Group Meeting15-16 October 2008
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Outline of Presentation
The name of the game! Relevant normalizations of indicators Sustainability trajectories The real issue for developing countries:
adaptation
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The Name of the Game: Blame India, China, Brazil…
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HDI and Energy ConsumptionHDI and Energy Consumption
• Modern energy use is critical for developmentModern energy use is critical for development• Over 450 million people without access to electricity.Over 450 million people without access to electricity.• India needs GDP growth of 8%+ over the next 25 years to lift India needs GDP growth of 8%+ over the next 25 years to lift
the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of economic and social well being. This is not possible without economic and social well being. This is not possible without increased energy use.increased energy use.
• We must be able to pursue accelerated social and economic We must be able to pursue accelerated social and economic development, and poverty eradication. GDP growth rate of development, and poverty eradication. GDP growth rate of 8%+ per annum over 20-30 years is essential to lift the 8%+ per annum over 20-30 years is essential to lift the bottom 40% of our population to an acceptable quality of bottom 40% of our population to an acceptable quality of life. Development and poverty eradication is also an life. Development and poverty eradication is also an imperative for adaptation to climate changeimperative for adaptation to climate change
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Energy is Critical For Development Energy is Critical For Development and Improving HDIand Improving HDI
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
Per
capita e
nerg
y c
onsum
ption (
kgoe)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
HD
I
kgoe HDI Linear (HDI )
5
666
Present day per capita COPresent day per capita CO22 emissions emissions
- those at the top of the curve want the ones at the - those at the top of the curve want the ones at the bottom to take action to combat climate change!bottom to take action to combat climate change!
Cumulative per capita emissions from 1850 to 2004 for Cumulative per capita emissions from 1850 to 2004 for UK and USA is 1100 tons! For India it is 23 tons!UK and USA is 1100 tons! For India it is 23 tons!
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Relevant Normalizations of Sustainability Indicators:
8 8Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)
CO2 emission from food sector--from Field (production) to Table (processed food)-excluding cooking
0.1 0.1
1.7 1.8 1.9 2.02.2
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
India China UnitedKingdom
Germany Netherlands Australia United States
ton
CO
2/m
kca
l of
food
ene
rgy
Production related CO2 emission (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Processing related CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Total CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
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Into the Trash It Goes The food an American family throws away each month. New York Times: May 18, 2008.
10 10
30
47.353
70
0
20
40
60
80
US Germany Japan India
48
10
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
USA UK Germany India
Average rate of recycling (%) (excl. re-use)
GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp)
Municipal solid waste
Source: TERI Analysis, based on National Communications of different countries
11 11
16
118
193
0
50
100
150
200
250
India EU (15 countries) USA
Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport
(gm/passenger-km)
Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources
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The Importance of Development Trajectories:
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Sustainable Development Trajectories: Kuznets curves: During a country’s development, several
development related indicators at first worsen, and then improve
Historically, with environmental Kuznets curves, present developed societies have shown turning points at c. $ 6000-8000 PPP per capita
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Income: PPP$ per capita
Ind
icat
or
c. PPP$ 7000
(Typical for current developed countries)
Schematic representation of the Environmental Kuznets curve
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Country Turning Point
PPP$ per capita
Sri Lanka 4,092
Bangladesh 1,377
India 501
Japan 22,675
Switzerland 26,122
Norway 10, 274
Turning Points: Energy Intensity Parameter: Kgoe per PPP$ GDP
Source: Econometric analysis by TERI, based on IEA data, 2008
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India’s turning point for energy intensity was reached in the 1980s
Energy intensity of GDP (kgoe/$ 2000 PPP) based on IEA data
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.23
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.311971
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
TPES
(kgo
e)/G
DP
($20
00 P
PP)
Source: Planning Commission
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0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
CO2 2004/GDP in 2000$ at PPP % of US GDP in 2000$ at PPP per Capita % of US
The fossil fuel CO2 intensity of the Indian economy in 2004 was the same as Japan; better than Germany!
Data: “Growth and CO2 Emissions – How do different countries fare?” : Roger Bacon and Soma Bhattacharya: World Bank, 2007:
1818
Source: BEE, 2007
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G Cal / tcs
9.3
9.08.9
8.88.7 8.7
8.48.3
8.18.0 7.9
7.77.6 7.5
7.3
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
199
0-9
1
199
1-9
2
199
2-9
3
199
3-9
4
199
4-9
5
199
5-9
6
199
6-9
7
199
7-9
8
199
8-9
9
199
9-0
0
20
00
-01
20
01-
02
20
02
-03
20
03
-04
20
04
-05
Specific Energy Consumption in Integrated Steel Plants
Source: Steel Authority of India Ltd.
22% reduction in SEC from 1990-91 to
2004-05
Actual impact higher as
share of D/R rising
2020
Source: BEE, 2007
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111 112 110
104 105102
97
91 8984 83 82
63 65
117120 122
60
80
100
120
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
Cement: Energy Consumption Profile(Dry Process - Wtd. Avg.)
650663
723
876857 846
816 815801
780 779 771 763 750742 734 729
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
TH
ER
MA
L
EN
ER
GY
KC
AL/K
G C
L.
ELEC
TR
ICA
LEN
ER
GY
KW
H/T
CEM
EN
T
BEST IN INDIA
BEST IN WORLD
Source: CMA
WET KILNS: INDIA 5% US 18%
SHARE OF BLENDED CEMENT OVER 60%
2222
Source: BEE, 2007
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India has the world’s most energy efficient oil refinery!
Source: Shell Global benchmarking study in ‘Energy & Loss’ performance
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Country SO2 SPM NOx Source
11 OECD
6,900 7,300 14,700 CRB
India 523 523 523 MK
Sources:CRB: Cole et.al., 1997; MK: Mukherjee and Kathuria, 2006
EKC Curves: Turning Points for Air Quality, PPP$ per capita
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Country BOD COD Study
32 Countries average
7,623 7,853 GK
India 548 1,668 TERI
EKC Curves: Water Quality: Turning Points for BOD and COD PPP$ per capita
Sources: GK: Grossman and Krueger, 1995; TERI: The Energy & Resources Institute, 2008
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The Real Climate Change Issue for Developing Countries: The Costs of Adaptation
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Years
Per
cen
t E
xpen
dit
ure
Expenditure on adaptation as % of total Govt. expenditure
Expenditure on adaptation as % of GDP
Reality check! India’s fiscal expenditures on programs directly related to adaptation to climate variability was 2.63% of GDP in 2006-07!
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Poverty alleviation and livelihood
preservation, 44.65%
Forest conservation, 0.49%
Health, 10.75%
Disaster management, 3.46%
Risk f inancing, 4.83%
Rural education and infrastructure,
26.85%
Crop improvement and research, 5.93%
Drought-proofing and f lood control, 3.04%
Where the money went…
Development is the best form of adaptation!
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India Doesn’t Need Lesson’s on Sustainability!
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