india : wealth creation story...-10%. 0%. 10%. 20%. 30%. 40%. 50%. 0. 10. 20. 30. 40. 50. 60. bn $...

India : Wealth Creation Story

Kuntal Shah @ Indian Embassy, Moscow - 9th October 2019 1

2

“A picture is worth a thousand words!”-Frederick R. Barnard

3

Wealth Creation

Wealth creation formula : Avoid complexity and fragility, embrace simplicity and sustainability. 3

-10%

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Bn $

Indian Entities Market Cap Parent 10 Year CAGR Returns Indian 10 year CAGR Returns

India : Listed MNC Affiliates with the Same Offering and Management Culture are Outperforming Parent Companies on Growth and Returns Parameters

Source : Bloomberg (As on 6th Mar'19) 4

USD / INR 10yr

XIRR Returns (%) 4.5

Indian Equities : Direct Derivative of India’s Economic Growth and Efficiency of Capital Sensex has delivered 1.5x of nominal GDP (GDP growth + inflation + efficiency gains + market share gains)

Source : Bloomberg, Statistics.com 5

0

5,000

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45,000

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Sensex

Eco reforms

SEC

Barings Bank

collapses

Elected government

resigned after 13

days

Asian Crisis

LTCM Crisis

NDA government

sworn in

Stock Market Scandal

Terrorist attack in the US

UTI

Dot-com UPA-1

Period of high GDP growth 2004-2008

Satyam

QE UPA-2 wins

Eurozone

QE

Demonetization

China Market BREXIT

Election results

of 5 States

P-note norms tightened

Global Crisis

Lehman Brothers file for

Bankruptcy

FOMC to continue QE

NDA wins landslide victory

QE

GST Implemented

Sensex hits all time High

Corporate Tax

Rate Cut

NDA-2 Wins

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Sensex vs Nominal GDP (Re-based to 100)

BSE Sensex Nominal GDP bn

India : Low Base, High Growth Story

INDIA UNITED STATES CHINA GERMANY Russia UK

2000 2018 DELTA 2000 2018 DELTA 2000 2018 DELTA 2000 2018 DELTA 2000 2018 DELTA 2000 2018 DELTA

Nominal GDP ($bn) 477 2,958 6.20 10,285 21,482 2.09 1,214 14,172 11.67 1,955 4,117 2.11 259 1,658 6.40 1,638 2,810 1.72

GDP per capita ($) (Nominal) 463 2,046 4.42 36,433 53,500 1.47 959 10,200 10.64 24,009 48,220 2.01 1,899 11,327 5.96 27,828 44,177 1.59

Index EPS ($) 1.4 6.1 4.36 50 132 2.64 5.6 37.9 6.77 197 1065 5.41 1.8 7.8 4.33 379 773 2.04

Equity Market Index ($) (Dec’18) 28 159 5.65 1,320 2,506 1.89 250 359 1.44 3063 12400 4.05 7* 38 5.65 9427 8973 0.95

Index Market Cap. ($bn) (Dec’18) 71 2,076 29.24 11,645 26,872 2.31 317 5,377 16.96 807 1,953 2.42 87 291 3.34 2,175 3,075 1.41

Exchange Rate vs USD 44.9 68.4 1.52 1 1 1 8.28 6.86 0.83 2.1 0.85 0.41 28.1 62.7 2.23 0.66 0.75 1.14

Equity Indices : Nifty, S&P 500, Shanghai Composite, DAX, IMOEX, FTSE 100 as of December 2018, Source : Bloomberg, Statistics.com, TradingEconomics, 6

*2003,

7

-10%

0%

10%

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30%

40%

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5 yr Sensex Rolling CAGR* 10 yr Sensex Rolling CAGR* 15 yr Sensex Rolling CAGR*

5 Year 10 Year 15 YearYearly Rolling Return Observations 36 31 26Loss Probability (%) 13.9% 3.2% 0.0%Median Return (%) 10.1% 12.8% 11.4%Max Return (%) 45.6% 20.4% 16.8%Minimum Return (%) -6.8% -2.0% 4.6%Standard Deviation (%) 10.8% 5.8% 3.1%

Source : Bloomberg, RBI

BSE Sensex Returns in USD

8

Industry Refinitiv(Reuters) Code Company Name Market Cap

(USD Bn)CAGR in

USD*

Consumer Discretionary

TITN.BO Titan Company Ltd. 16.1 18%

PAGE.BO Page Industries Ltd. 3.6 29%

WHIR.BO Whirlpool Of India Ltd. 3.4 9%

Consumer Staples

HLL.BO Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 61.3 12%

ITC.BO ITC Ltd. 45.6 11%

AVEU.BO Avenue Supermarts Ltd. 16.6 17%

FinancialsHDBK.BO HDFC Bank Ltd. 95.9 24%

KTKM.BO Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. 44.9 18%

BJFN.BO Bajaj Finance Ltd. 33.6 20%

IndustrialsLART.BO Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 29.6 12%

HVEL.BO Havells India Ltd. 6.4 32%

TMIN.BO 3M India Ltd. 3.3 15%

LifesciencesUPLL.BO UPL Ltd. 6.6 13%

DIVI.BO Divis Laboratories Ltd. 6.3 22%

PIIL.BO PI Industries Ltd. 2.6 41%

IndustryRefinitiv(Reuters)

CodeCompany Name Market Cap

(USD Bn)CAGR in

USD*

MaterialsASPN.BO Asian Paints Ltd. 24.2 19%

ULTC.BO Ultratech Cement Ltd. 16.9 17%

PIDI.BO Pidilite Industries Ltd. 10.5 21%

ServicesJUBI.BO Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd. 2.6 15%

PHOE.BO Phoenix Mills Ltd. 1.5 31%

WEST.BO Westlife Development Ltd. 0.7 37%

Telecom, Media &

Technology

INFY.BO Infosys Ltd. 48.9 31%

WIPR.BO Wipro Ltd. 19.6 24%

HONE.BOHoneywell Automation India Ltd. 3.6 16%

Transportation & Logistics

MRTI.BO Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 28.9 20%

BAJA.BO Bajaj Auto Ltd. 12.2 18%

EICH.BO Eicher Motors Ltd. 6.9 22%

UtilitiesRELI.BO Reliance Industries Ltd. 120.7 12%

PLNG.BO Petronet LNG Ltd. 5.6 19%

IGAS.BO Indraprastha Gas Ltd. 3.5 20%

Focus on Sector Leaders

*CAGR from 31st March 1992 or date of listing whichever is later to 31th March 2019, excluding Dividends. The universe being Market Cap > USD 500 Mn. Source: Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Ace Equity

9

Thank YouIndian Companies are Amongst the Best Capital Allocators

Note: MSCI Index constituents have been considered. Also, bubble sizes represent relative weights of the countries in the MSCI ACWI Index as of Dec 2018.

Indonesia

Russia

India

South AfricaMalaysia

Australia

US

UK

France

MexicoTaiwan

KoreaBrazil

Japan

Philippines

Germany

Hong Kong

Singapore

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

5% 10% 20% 25%15%

Current Average ROCE (%)

% o

f Cos

. with

RO

CE

high

er th

an th

ew

eigh

ted

aver

age

cost

ofc

apita

lIndia has one of the highest proportionof companies

with ROCE > WACC and highest average ROCE

China

Thailand

Source: Goldman Sachs Research, Bloomberg*As of February 2018

0 20 40

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

Communications

Consumer Linked

Information Technology

Global Demand

Consumer + Global Demand

High Structural RoE in % (2018) China India

0 20 40 60 80

Energy

Materials

Commodities Linked

Utilities

R / Cyclical

Commodities + Cyclical

Low Structural RoE in % (2018) China India

Indian Companies have Benefitted by Reinvesting Profits in their Businesses*

10

Factors Leading to Wealth Creation

"We are proud of 3 Ds :Democracy, Demographic Dividend and Demand" - Narendra Modi

10

India : Country of Countries, Large Population, Large Domestic Market,Poor GDP per Capita, but on the Path of Progress and Growth

100 >25 < 50 50 < 75 75 < 1000 < 25

BAHAMAS

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

TUNISIASERBIA

QATAR

GUATEMALA

SINGAPORE

ANGOLA

SLOVAKIA

TUNISIA

UZBEKISTAN

COTED’IVOIRE

BOSNIA

URUGUAY

CROATIA

MALAWI

SOMALIA

ST LUCIA

ZIMBABWE

LIBERIA

SOMALIA

MAURITIUS GUINEA

LATVIA

COMOROS

MOZAMBIQUE

BOLIVIA

BELIZECENTRALAFRICANREPUBLIC

ST KITTSAND NEVIS

ANGOLA

GDP(Latest, $ Bn)

Source : IIFL , CEIC , The Economist , World Bank, Axis Capital 11

Population (millions) 100 >25 < 50 50 < 750 < 25

Somalia(Jammu & Kashmir)

Bulgaria(Himachal Pradesh)Malaysia

(Punjab)

Thailand(Rajasthan)

Germany(Madhya Pradesh)

France(Gujarat)

Japan(Maharashtra)

UnitedKingdom

(Karnataka)

South Africa(Andhra Pradesh)

Turkey(Tamil Nadu)Canada

(Kerala)

Slovenia(Goa)

Romania(Delhi)

Argentina(Odisha)

Peru(Chhattisgarh)

Poland(Jharkhand) Vietnam

(West Bengal)

Bahrain(Puducherry)

Philippines(Bihar)

Mauritius(Sikkim)

Macedonia(Nagaland)

Mongolia(Manipur)

Cyprus(Mizoram)

Uruguay(Meghalaya)

Kuwait(Tripura)

Gambia(Arunachal Pradesh)

South Korea(Northeast India)

The Bahamas(Andaman and Nicobar islands)

Brazil(Uttar Pradesh)

Belgium(Uttarakhand)

Population : A country of countries

75 < 100

12

Decoding India’s Consumption Story

Population (Mn) ~ 110 ~ 130Segment GDP ($ Bn) ~ 1000 ~ 1150Per Capita Income ($) ~ 8800 ~ 9300

India 1 Mexico


India 2 Philippines


India 3 Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding S. Africa)

The World is Changing : Asia’s Share of Global GDP

0500100015002000250030003500

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

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e20

22e

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e

India

GDP ($ Bn current prices) GDP per capita ($ current prices, RHS)

Source: Howmuch.net, Visual Capitalist, ADB, Maddison, CGI, UNDP, Goldman Sachs

Debt/GDP : Declined in India, Risen in China

11121314151617181

while Brazil & India have the highest government debt…

Government Debt (% of GDP)Data for 3Q 2017

0

50

100

150

200…private non-financial leverage is among the least for them.

Private Non-Financial Debt (% of GDP)

*indicates household and non-financial corporate debt

Data for 3Q 2017

Source : Bloomberg, Bank of International Settlements (BIS), MOSL 13

India : The only economy with a static total Debt-to-GDP ratio over the past five years

Total debt = Government + Non-financial private sector

18 12 12 15 16 19 19

65

125148

68

186

233

128

82

145

257

050

100150200250300

010203040506070

Change in Total Debt/GDP ratio % Total Debt/GDP (RHS) %

0 50 100

Adult Literacy Rate (> 15 years) %

Urbanization %

Inflation %

Mortgages %

Population Bn

GDP US$ 1 trillion

India-2018 China-2018 China-2004

India is 3% of World GDP but 1% of Investment Flows

Source: National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganized Sector, Ambit Capital research, NSSO, ILO, McKinsey, World Economic Forum

Shrinking Size of Unorganized Sector

55% 51% 48%40%

91% 92%83% 81%

FY 2000 FY 2005 FY 2012 FY 2016

Unorganized Sector % of GDP Unorganized Sector % Employment

Corporate Tax Rate Cuts after a Long Time

14

Macros

• Subdued Oil• Normal Monsoon• Surplus Liquidity• Forex Reserves• Improving Credit• Urbanization• Financialization

of Savings• Demographic

Dividend

Policies

• Corporate Tax Cut• GST• Bankruptcy Code• RERA (Real Estate

Cleanup)• Demonetization• Aadhar• Smart Cities• Skill India Initiative• Housing for All

Digitization

• Jan Dhan (zero balance bank accounts)

• Smartphone Penetration

• UPI – Digital Payments

• India Stack• Direct Benefit

Transfer

Structural &Digitization

Boost

Structural Reforms and Digitization = Formalization of The Economy

“Corporate tax ratecuts are just thebeginning of reformand "a lot" is yet tocome”

“If there is any gapanywhere, I willpersonally act as abridge”

“Government hasno business beingin business”

@Narendra Modi (P.M. of India)

“If you want toinvest in a marketwhere there is scalecome to India”

15

16

0

25

50

75

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Household Debt to GDP (%)

Emerging markets (aggregate) India China Russia United States

Source: BIS, HDFC, European Mortgage Federation, Hofinet, RBI

918 20

31 34 38 40 4552 56

67

88Mortgage to GDP Ratio (%, as of 2017)

56%

13%

15%

1%5%

4%3% 3%

Indian Household Assets

Property

Gold

BankDeposit

Non-BankingDeposit

Insurance Fund

Provident & Pension Fund Equity

Strong, Unlevered and Under-Penetrated Indian Household

3971 4567 5386 6285 7468 86013858 4409 4711 5378

64547599

7828 8976 1009711663

1392216200

FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017

Retail Credit (INR Bn)

Housing Others

17

Addressable Market andHow To Skin The Cat

“Much of India that we dream of still lies ahead of us: housing, power, water and sanitation for all; bank accounts and insurance for every citizen; connected and prosperous villages; and, smart and sustainable cities” - Narendra Modi

17

Invest in India

18

Consumption Expenditure,Per capita by category

India($)

Equivalent year

for ChinaUSA ($) Japan ($) S. Korea

($) China ($)China size/

India:: Times (x)

USA size/India

:: Times (x)Clothes & Footwear (ex-sportswear) 60 2004 924 608 682 239 4.0x 15.4x

Non -Alcoholic Beverages 6 1994 267 202 126 74 12.3x 44.5xAlcoholic Beverages 8 1997 401 357 131 29 3.6x 50.1xTobacco 16 1997 342 137 140 76 4.8x 21.4xHousing 109 2006 5,904 3,738 1,679 346 3.2x 54.2xHousehold Appliances 1 1990 165 230 149 56 56.0x 165.0xFinancial Services 33 2008 1,814 606 421 85 2.6x 55.0xAutomobiles 14 2009 1,214 589 440 34 2.4x 86.7xGround Transportation / Services 132 2012 2,090 1,564 844 175 1.3x 15.8xTelecom Services 11 1998 825 554 395 89 8.1x 75.0xHotels 2 2004 364 130 212 11 5.5x 182.0xAir Transportation 1 2000 165 55 222 17 17.0x 165.0xMedia 13 NA 988 629 181 55 4.2x 76.0xHealthcare 39 2000 8,074 869 616 204 5.2x 207.0xEducation 28 2002 869 388 741 62 2.2x 31.0xInsurance and Social Protection 16 2006 1,571 896 700 63 3.9x 98.2xNominal GDP per capita (PPP)($) 1,606 2,005 55,837 32,556 27,315 7,932 4.9x 34.8x

India is where China was in the early 2000s

Source: GS Report – India Consumer close-up report of 2016Data as of 2015 19

India : Per Capita Expenditure

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Unorganized vs Organized Sector (Market Size, 2016)

Organized Unorganized20

9% 3%21%

60%70%

60%

85% 89%

WashingMachine

Air Conditioner Refrigerator Television

White Goods Penetration (2016)

India Average Global Average

82 43 14 6

23492075

488156

1

0.6

0.91

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

PackagedFoods

PackagedFoods ex

EdibleOils/Milk

PersonalBeauty Care

Home Care

Food & Care Products ($ Bn, 2019)

IndiaGlobalIndex (India's Global Category Share v/s GDP, RHS)

India : Under-Penetrated & Underserved Market with a Dominant Unorganized Sector

34% 90% 95% 25% 10% 46% 53% 74% 65%

Source : JP Morgan & EY, Euromonitor, Kotak Institutional Equities, , Bloomberg, IIFL Asset Management,

5213 9 25

6 11 2

192

4056

100 100 101 91

Loan to GDP%

ConsumerCredit to GDP

%

Mortgages toGDP %

% of CreditCard Holders

% Populationwith HealthInsurance

Mutual FundAUM % of

GDP

% PopulationOwning a Car

Credit, Insurance, Mutual Fund & Car Penetration (2018)

India USA

Formalization of SectorCategory Market SizeMarket Share within Organized Players

Potential Actual Size OrganizedUnorganized Dirty & Inefficient Laggards

Clean & Efficient Players

Trifecta of Growth Opportunity – Clean and Efficient Getting Bigger

21

22

Invest in Indian Companies, Spend on Global Brands

>Shareholder Returns

23

Many Ways to Skin the Cat : Financials

23

24Source : Refinitv (Thomson Reuters)

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000 Banks

CITIGROUP JP MORGAN CHASE & CO.

BANK OF AMERICA BNP PARIBAS

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000 Banks

DEUTSCHE BANK (XET) MORGAN STANLEY UBS GROUP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000 Banks

WELLS FARGO & CO HSBC HOLDINGS STANDARD CHARTERED

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Non-Banking

AMERICAN EXPRESS DISCOVER FINANCIAL SVS.

Rebased to 100 in USD, Data from listing date of companies or 1st April 1990, whichever is later

Indian Companies have Outperformed their Global Peers

Many Ways to Skin the Cat : Housing

25


0

2000

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1400019

9019

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0820

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1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

19

Paints

SHERWIN-WILLIAMS

0

2000

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6000

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10000

12000

14000

1994

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2004

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2019

Adhesives

AVERY DENNISON


010002000300040005000600070008000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Cement

CRH CEMEX ADR

BUZZI UNICEM CEMENTIR HOLDING

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000 Real Estate Developer

KLEPIERRE REIT WFD UNIBAIL RODAMCO STAPLED UNITS

SIMON PROPERTY GROUP

27

Many Ways to Skin the Cat : Services


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

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6000

7000

Technology

INTERNATIONAL BUS.MCHS. SAP (XET) MICROSOFT

0

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8000

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2019

Industrial Automation

BORGWARNER DENSO

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Internet

PAGEGROUP HAYS ROBERT HALF INTL.



100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019

Flexi Staffing

PAYCHEX AUTOMATIC DATA PROC.

India

Many Ways to Skin the Cat : Consumption

29

30

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Apparel

L BRANDS (VICTORIA SECRET) ABERCROMBIE & FITCH 'A'

Source : Refinitv (Thomson Reuters)



0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000 Luxury Goods

TIFFANY & CO HERMES INTL BURBERRY GROUP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1990

1991

1992

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1994

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1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

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2011

2012

2013

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2016

2017

2018

2019

Fast Moving Consumer Goods

L'OREAL NESTLE 'R' PROCTER & GAMBLE

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Tobacco

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO IMPERIAL BRANDS JAPAN TOBACCO

31

Many Ways to Skin the Cat : Transportation


0

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300020

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2004

2005

2006

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2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

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2019

Auto (4 Wheeler)

BMW (XET) DAIMLER (XET) VOLKSWAGEN PREF. (XET)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Auto (2 Wheeler)

HONDA MOTOR YAMAHA

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

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2016

2017

2018

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Auto (2 Wheeler)

HARLEY-DAVIDSON KAWASAKI HEAVY INDUSTRY

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Auto Ancillaries

WABCO HOLDINGS



Many Ways to Skin the Cat : Infrastructure

33


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Infrastructure Building

CATERPILLAR BECHTLE (XET)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cables

PRYSMIAN NEXANS SAIPEM

0500

100015002000250030003500

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

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1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

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2018

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Fast Moving Industrial Goods

SAINT GOBAIN TOTAL SA



02000400060008000

100001200014000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Chemicals

CLARIANT (~U$)

35

Many Ways to Skin the Cat : Industrials

36

Key Risks

37

Thank You for Your Kind Attention

38

Annexures

39

Resources

• Invest India - https://www.investindia.gov.in/• Invest India Russia Desk - https://www.investindia.gov.in/country/russia-plus• Indian Embassy in Russia - https://indianembassy-moscow.gov.in/index.php• Ministry of Finance - https://www.finmin.nic.in/• Ministry of External Affairs - https://mea.gov.in/• Ministry of Commerce - https://commerce.gov.in/• Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion - https://dipp.gov.in/• Income Tax Department - https://www.incometaxindia.gov.in/Pages/default.aspx• Reserve Bank of India - https://www.rbi.org.in/• Securities Exchange Board of India - https://www.sebi.gov.in/• Bombay Stock Exchange - https://www.bseindia.com/• National Stock Exchange - https://www.nseindia.com/• Indian Brand Equity Foundation - https://www.ibef.org/

https://www.investindia.gov.in/

https://www.investindia.gov.in/country/russia-plus

https://indianembassy-moscow.gov.in/index.php

https://www.finmin.nic.in/

https://mea.gov.in/

https://commerce.gov.in/

https://dipp.gov.in/

https://www.rbi.org.in/

https://www.sebi.gov.in/

https://www.bseindia.com/

https://www.nseindia.com/

https://www.ibef.org/

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Disclaimer

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india : wealth creation story...-10%. 0%. 10%. 20%. 30%. 40%. 50%. 0. 10. 20. 30. 40. 50. 60. bn $...

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