india two wheelers dec 2011

8/12/2019 India Two Wheelers Dec 2011

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India Automobiles Two Wheelers

Strictly Private & ConfidentialDec 2011Allegro Capital Advisors Pvt Ltd


2/30

Import ofParts

Drive chains,engine

components,transmissions etc.

AutoComponent

OriginalEquipment

Manufacturer(OEM)

Dealers*

2000+ dealers in

domestic market

Sub-Dealers/Touch

DomesticCustomers

Low penetration

at 7%. Lower inrural areas

Two Wheelers An Introduction

2Strictly Private & Confidential

Manufacturer

300+ players.castings, forgings,

tires etc.

Raw MaterialSuppliers

Sheet metal,aluminum etc

INR 55K Crturnover with

13.3Mn units inFY11

3 players account for 80% of market

share

Points

12000+ dealertouch points

Service

CentersKey revenue

generator fordealers

InternationalCustomers

Key markets - Africa, Latin

America and SouthEast Asia

Source: ACE, Allegro Calculations.

* Dealer numbers are for listed players.

Primary business modelis appointed dealer,though Subsidiary modelalso used


3/30

Two Wheelers An Overview (1)

A

39%

BA

14%

9%

4%

7%

( )

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

5

10

15

20

F 05 F 06 F 07 F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12 ( D)


Indian Auto Sector had a volume growth of 13% CAGR overthe last 5 years - Driven by two wheelers which account for80% of the total volumes.

Two wheeler sales reached INR 55K Cr and volumes reached13.3 mn units clocking a CAGR of 15% and 13% respectivelyover 2006-2011. This works to an average realisation ~ Rs.42,000 or 1.2x the real per capita GDP of India.

Top 3 players account for 80% of the total market share.

Source: Bloomberg, McKinsey, Data Monitor Allegro Calculations.

27%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

( C ) ( )


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Two Wheelers An Overview (2)

A

17.0%15.4%

12.8%

8.7%7.5%

0.6%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

2

46

8

10

12

14

F 05 F 06 F 07 F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12( D)


Domestic volume growth has been strong over the pastfive years growing at 11% CAGR.

Exports have been a significant contributor to overallvolumes with a growth of 27% CAGR over the last 5 years.

Year to date, the volume growth in two wheelers hassurpassed all other automobile segments.

5%2 3 & C

D ( ) % ( )

0%

5%

10%

15%20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

0.2

0.4

0.60.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

F 05 F 06 F 07 F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12( D)

E ( ) % ( )

Source: Bloomberg, Allegro Calculations.


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Two Wheelers Industry Analysis

High demand (+)Limited suppliers (+)Low product differentiation (-)Low dealer bargaining power (+)

BUYER POWER : MODERATE

SUPPLIER POWER : WEAK Cost of ownershi lowest for 2 wheeler +

THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES: WEAK 4

5


,

castings/forgings (+)Contractual relationship (+)High localisation of finished product (+)

Oligopolistic nature of market (+)Low revenue diversification (-)Strong similarity of players (-)Large competitor size (+)

DEGREE OF R IVALRY: MODERATE-STRONGModerate fixed cost to enter ()Moderate gestation period ()High investment in a dealership network (+)High brand recognition of existing players (+)

THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS: MODERATE-WEAK

Lack of efficient public transport system (+)Lack of cheap / beneficial alternative (+)

0

1

2

NOTE: (+) and () are represented in terms of the Sector on the whole.


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Buyer Power Moderate (1)

* *

31%

11%

7% 7% 6%4%

1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

C B


In developed markets, two wheelers are seen as a luxury rather than anecessity. The reverse is true for developing/emerging economies.

India is one of the lowest penetrated markets for two wheelers evenamongst emerging economies.

According to OECD, as per capita income and penetration levelsincrease, there is a shift in consumer preference toward highend/premium motorcycles.

India is at an inflexion point where penetration is low and per capitaincome is rising. Although income distribution is skewed, the potentialdemand opportunity for two wheelers is large.

Source: MoRTH (2008)

Source: OECD (2008)

Source: Bloomberg, McKinsey, Allegro Calculations.

7% 7% 8% 7% 7%

9%

11%13%

15%

10.3%11.9%

13.2%11.5% 11.5%

14.2%

17.3%

20.3%

23.1%

2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 4.1%

5.5% 5.5% 6.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

F 05 F 06 F 07 F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12E F 13E

2

F

( )

*NOTE: Variations in calculation exist among agencies.


7/30

Buyer Power Moderate (2)

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

F 05 F 06 F 07 F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11

10%

5%

0%5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

F 05 F 06 F 07 F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12( D)


High Demand, Concentrated Supply and Low Demand Elasticity Lowering Bargaining Power of Dealers and Buyers.

80%

77%

73%

80%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

2008 2009 2010 2011

3

3 80%

Indian Two Wheeler market follows a Single BrandRetail Model unlike western and other markets

where a Dealer can sell multiple brands.

Single Brand Retail Model

Source: Bloomberg, Companies, Allegro Calculations.

A ( ) A ( )

D ( ) % ( )


8/30

Supplier Power Value Chain (1)

AutoComponent

Exports

Fragmented and small sized.Stringent Quality ControlLengthy Approval ProcessLong Term ContractsDependence on OEM for TechnologyInputs

Forms 10-30% ofRevenue forComponentManufacturer


Manufacturer

300+ players ascompared to 11+

OEMs

Original EquipmentManufacturers (OEMs)

Dealers / ServiceCenters (Replacement

Market)

Dependency on OEM forDealer/Service Center

Access


9/30

Supplier Power Weak (2)

Dependence of OEMs for revenue, reducesbargaining power of suppliers.

Contracts have limited escalation clauses.

Trying maintain long term relationshipsleaves them at mercy of OEMs

0%

5%

10%

15%


Fragmented, Contractual Relationship and High Localisation makes Supplier Power Moderate

Localisation Level

Bajaj Auto 90-100%

TVS Motors 90-100%

Honda Motors 80%

Hero MotoCorp 85-90%

Most components are manufactured withinIndia for OEMs. An advantage more than adisadvantage

Source: Bloomberg, Companies, ACE, Allegro Calculations.

F 00 F 01 F 02 F 03 F 04 F 05 F 06 F 07 F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11

E EB DA A A EB DA Note: Calculation based on industry sales and EBITDA figures.


10/30

Degree of Rivalry Moderate-Strong

( 11)

2400

2475

2550

2625

2700

2775

2850

2008 2009 2010 2011


ore ayers n er ngYear Company

2008Mahindra & Mahindra enters two wheelerspace buy buying out 80% share in KineticMotors

2010 Harley Davidson launches a line of modelsfor India

2011 Ducati launches its showrooms in India

2011 Aprilla in collaboration with Piaggio to bringin Vespa 125cc and RSV4

2011 Hyosung re-enters the market after JV withKinetic

2012 Triumph to unveil its India plans at AutoExpo 2012

Increasing Competition, New Players Entering the Market and Lack of Revenue Diversification shows increasing Rivalry

90%98% 100%

10%2% 0%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

B A C

( ) ( )

Source: Bloomberg, Companies, Media, Allegro Calculations.


11/30

Threat of New Entrants Moderate-Weak

The initial investment to set up anew plant isn't very large. Butthe time taken can be anywherebetween 18-24 months.

Brownfield investments are fasterand less capital intensive ascompared to Greenfield.

Company Investment Type ofExpansionCapacity(units) Time

Cost Per Unit(INR)

Bajaj Auto INR 75 Cr Brownfield 600,000 6-9 Months 1250

Honda Motors INR 500 Cr Greenfield 2,500,000 18-24 Months 2000

60 C B 600,000 6 9 1000

1000 6000


Source: Bloomberg, Companies, Allegro Calculations.

While investment and time is not very high, access to a distribution network make entry difficult.

At the same time,existing playershave a largedealership networkenhancing theirbrand recognition.

0

200

400

600

800

C B A 0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

C B A


12/30

Threat of Substitutes Weak

Two Wheeler Four WheelerAverage KM per annum (30 * 365) 9125 9125Average Mileage 50 15

Liters of Petrol Consumed perannum 183 608

Current INR Price of Petrol (70.03) 70.03 70.03Running Expenditure per annum 12780 42602Cost per KM 1.4 4.7

4 Demographic Split by Income


13/30

Export Business Overview of Major Markets (1)

Company Destination Key Brands Exported

Hero MotoCorp Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Columbia CD Dawn, Splendor, Passion,Glamour, CBZ, Hunk, Pleasure

Bajaj Auto 36 countries; Africa and Middle East: 51%;South East Asia: 34%; Latin America: 15% Boxer, Discover, Pulsar

TVS Motors 55 countries across Africa, South East Asia,Latin America Apache, RockZ, Neo

The dynamics of most markets(except Africa) are similar to Indiawhere two wheelers arepredominantly used fortransportation rather than lifestyle

products.

AFRICAN COUNTRIES ( )

Nigeria accounts for 40% of all two wheelers sold with


annual demand of 1.2mn.

Nascent stage where two wheelers are used mostly forcommercial purposes Hence skewed towards low costproducts.

Huge export opportunity for Indian OEMs as economyand affordability levels grow.

Indian OEMs face stiff competition from Chinesecounterparts.

Indian products are perceived to be of a better qualityat the same time, though slightly higher priced.

Source: MFSL, IMF, Company Data, Allegro Research


14/30

SOUTH EAST ASIA LATIN AMERICA

Export Business Overview of Major Markets (2)

( 000 ) Brazil is a key market amongst Indian OEMs, but theycommand a very small share. Other important markets includeColombia and Central America.

Products exported are mostly premium bikes. Moreover, themarket is dominated by 100-150cc bikes which is a positive for

Indian players.

Again, Japanese players (Honda and Yamaha) control 90% ofthe market with Honda having 75% market share.0

2000

4000

60008000

10000

12000

14000

C 04 C 05 C 06 C 07 C 08 C 09 C 10 C 11E

,53%

,37%

,8%

,2%


Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are the fastest growingmarkets with dynamics very similar to India.

Both Bajaj Auto and TVS Motors have opened subsidiaries in

Indonesia to tap the third largest two wheelers market. Companies here face stiff competition from establishedJapanese brands such as Honda and Yamaha.

India products enjoy a price advantage over the Japanese twowheelers with similar levels of quality.

Source: MFSL, Company Data, Allegro Research

7%

81%

3%6% 3%

401


15/30

Investment Thesis Domestic Business

7% 7% 8%

7% 7%

9%11%

13%15%

10%12%

13%11% 11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4%

5% 6% 6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

F 05 F 06 F 07 F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12E F 13E

2

F

,

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


Source: Bloomberg, McKinsey, Company Data, RBI, Allegro Calculations

A

14% 15%16%

17% 19% 20% 21%

22%

6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%

80%79%

78%

77%76%

75% 74%73%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12E F 13E F 14E F 15E

( )

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

F 07 F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11

% F C ( )


16/30

Investment Thesis Export Business

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

5

8

11

14

17

20

F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12E F 13E F 14E F 15E

12% A 15

Rajiv Bajaj, MD Bajaj Auto Exports to outstrip domestic salesin the near future.exports will probably contribute 35% of salein FY12

Anil Dua, SVP (Marketing and Sales) Hero MotoCorp We arelooking at an exponential increase in export numbers. In 5-6years of time, we aim to sell a million bikes (every year) ininternational markets, which will be 10% of our total business

Management Quotes on Export Strategy


( ) %

Two wheeler manufacturers are showing an increased focus on exports to contribute to their top line.

Source: Bloomberg, Media, Company Data

Duty Entitlement Pass Book (DEPB) Scheme:

The DEPB scheme allowed exporters of two wheelers to claim reimbursements at 8-9% of the Free On Board (FOB) value of exports.

The Government has announced a withdrawal of this scheme (effective Sept 2011) moving to the Duty Drawback scheme where

reimbursement rates would be around 1-5% of FOB value. The likely impact of this would be for two wheeler exporters to increase prices and/or reduce dealer margins; both affecting demand

in export markets, impacting margins and lowering profitability.


17/30

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

5

8

11

14

17

20

F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12E F 13E F 14E F 15E

80% 79% 78% 77% 76% 75% 74% 73%

14% 15% 16% 17% 19% 20% 21% 22%

6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12E F 13E F 14E F 15E

18 15 22%

Investment Thesis Volume Projection


( ) %

34% 27 %19% 17% 16% 15 % 14% 14%

53%59 %

64% 64% 64% 64 % 64% 62%

13% 14 % 17% 19% 20% 21 % 23% 24%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

F 08 F 09 F 10 F 11 F 12E F 13E F 14E F 15E

E E

13

Source: Bloomberg, Citigroup, CRISIL, Allegro Calculations

Bajaj Auto29%

HeroMotoCorp

36%

TVSMotors

10%Others

25%


18/30

Investment Thesis Summary of Key Points

DOMESTICMARKET EXPORT MARKETS

POSITIVES

Low penetration of two wheelers in India Lower in

rural and semi rural towns.Affordability on the rise with increasing per capitaGDP.

Scooter penetration lower than motorcycles.

POSITIVES

Exports to be a major focus for OEMs Key marketsinclude Africa and Latin America.

Increasing awareness of Indian OEM manufacturers.

Price competitive in comparison to bigger globalbrands.


Scooters expected to lead growth on the back of awider acceptability and addressable market.

Premium motorcycles to see fastest growth command larger share of motorcycles.

R ISKS & CONCERNS

Increasing competitive environment leading toinefficient price competition.

Slowdown in consumer discretionary expenditure.

n an two w ee ers are perce ve to e o a etter

quality than their Chinese counterparts.

R ISKS & CONCERNS

Drawback of fiscal benefits (DEPB) affecting prices anddealer margins.

Increasing focus on exports leading to slowdown indomestic business.


19/30

Companies Recommendation Summary

CompanyMCAP

INR(cr)

CMPEPS Growth P/E EV/EBITDA ROE Target

Price Upside RatingFY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13EBajaj Auto 50,000 1723 -10% 9% 16.2 14.8 15.2 11.8 53% 47% 1755 Neutral

Hero MotoCorp 41,600 2059 5% 18% 21.1 17.9 16.4 13.5 49% 48% 2078 Underweight

TVS Motors 2,731 58 78% 31% 12.0 9.2 15.9 6.1 29% 31% 73 Overweight

INR (Cr)Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp TVS Motors


Source: Bloomberg, ACE, Allegro Calculations

Sales 19,759 22,389 25,251 23,149 27,437 NA 7,687 8,913 10,205

Sales Growth 24% 13% 13% 22% 19% NA 24% 16% 14%

EBITDA 3,832 4,193 4,693 3,441 4,136 NA 512 606 687

EBITDA Margin 19% 19% 19% 15% 15% NA 7% 7% 7%

Adj PAT 3,093 3,385 3,569 2,296 2,871 NA 231 292 344

PAT Margin 16% 15% 14% 10% 11% NA 3% 3% 3%

PAT Growth 18% 9% 6% 19% 20% NA 19% 27% 18%


20/30


21/30

Bajaj Auto

Balance Sheet (INR Cr) Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11

Share Capital 145 145 145 289

Reserves 1443 1725 2784 4621

Shareholders' fund 1588 1870 2928 4910

Secured Loans 7 - 13 24

Unsecured Loans 1327 1570 1326 302

Total Debt 1334 1570 1339 325

Net Block 1269 1542 1480 1483

CWIP 35 22 42 70

Investments 1857 1809 4022 4795

Profit & Loss (INR Cr) Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11Total Volumes(Units) 2,451,407 2,194,154 2,852,520 3,823,954Net Sales 8,663 8,437 11,509 15,998Avg Realisation 35,340 38,452 40,345 41,837Total Expenditure 7,753 7,619 9,328 13,240EBITDA 911 818 2,180 2,758

Other Income 506 496 535 993Depreciation 174 130 136 123EBIT 1,242 1,184 2,579 3,628Interest 5 21 6 2Extraordinary Items (102) (205) (162) 725


Cash 56 137 101 556Current Liabilities 1877 2438 5692 8749

Net Working Capital -228 -112 -1274 -1083

PBT 1,135 958 2,411 4,351

Tax 379 302 708 1,011Net Income 756 656 1,704 3,340EPS 26 23 59 115

Du Pont Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11

Tax Burden 0.48 0.55 0.65 0.62Interest Burden 0.99 0.97 1.00 1.00Depreciation Burden 0.81 0.84 0.94 0.96EBITDA Margin 11% 10% 19% 17%Asset Turnover 1.80 1.48 1.16 1.14Financial Leverage 3.03 3.05 3.40 2.85ROE 54% 46% 64% 53%

Source: ACE Equity, Bloomberg.

Key Ratios Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11

Sale Growth -3% 36% 39%Net Income Growth -13% 160% 96%

EBITDA Margin 11% 10% 19% 17%

EBIT Margin 14% 14% 22% 23%

PAT Margin 9% 8% 15% 21%

Debt / Equity 0.84 0.84 0.46 0.07


22/30


23/30

Hero MotoCorp

Balance Sheet (INR Cr) Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11Share Capital 40 40 40 40

Reserves 2946 3761 3425 2916


Secured Loans 0 0 0 0


Total Debt 132 78 66 1491

Net Block 1156 1574 1659 4080

CWIP 392 121 48 125

Investments 2567 3369 3926 5129

Profit & Loss (INR Cr) Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11Total Volumes(Units) 3,337,142 3,722,000 4,600,130 5,402,444Net Sales 10,332 12,319 15,758 19,245Avg Realisation 30,960 33,098 34,256 35,623Total Expenditure 9,032 10,691 13,146 16,839EBITDA 1,300 1,628 2,612 2,406

Other Income 272 337 414 497Depreciation 160 181 191 402EBIT 1,412 1,784 2,834 2,500Interest 2 3 2 16Extraordinary Items - - - (80)



Net Working Capital -888 -1039 -1949 -4640

PBT 1,410 1,781 2,832 2,405

Tax 442 500 600 477Net Income 968 1,282 2,232 1,928EPS 48 64 112 97


Tax Burden 0.61 0.65 0.75 0.76Interest Burden 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99Depreciation Burden 0.88 0.89 0.93 0.83EBITDA Margin 13% 13% 17% 13%Asset Turnover 2.04 2.03 1.85 1.78Financial Leverage 1.69 1.60 2.46 3.67ROE 32% 34% 64% 68%



Sale Growth 4% 19% 28% 22%Net Income Growth 13% 32% 74% -14%


EBIT Margin 14% 14% 18% 13%

PAT Margin 9% 10% 14% 10%

Debt / Equity 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.50


24/30


25/30

TVS Motors

Balance Sheet (INR Cr) Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11Share Capital 24 24 24 48

Reserves 798 786 842 952


Secured Loans 453 622 830 566


Total Debt 666 909 1003 785

Net Block 1016 996 956 938

CWIP 27 40 27 57

Investments 339 478 739 661

Profit & Loss (INR Cr) Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11Total Volumes(Units) 1,277,000 1,346,000 1,534,000 2,043,000Net Sales 3,220 3,671 4,363 6,179Avg Realisation 25,211 27,273 28,443 30,247Total Expenditure 3,178 3,552 4,243 5,898EBITDA 41 119 120 281

Other Income 100 80 134 144Depreciation 95 103 103 107EBIT 47 96 152 318Interest 11 65 75 70Extraordinary Items - - - -



Net Working Capital 269 343 298 316

PBT 35 31 76 248

Tax 4 0 (12) 54Net Income 32 31 88 195EPS 1.3 1.3 3.7 4.1


Tax Burden 1.06 1.00 0.79 0.49Interest Burden 1.22 -3.08 -3.24 0.60Depreciation Burden -1.29 0.13 0.15 0.62EBITDA Margin 1% 3% 3% 5%Asset Turnover 1.49 1.52 1.62 2.16Financial Leverage 2.63 2.97 3.11 2.86ROE 4% 4% 10% 19%



Sale Growth 14% 19% 42%Net Income Growth -2% 183% 121%


EBIT Margin 1% 3% 3% 5%

PAT Margin 1% 1% 2% 3%

Debt / Equity 0.81 1.12 1.16 0.79


26/30

Companies - Summary

Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp TVS Motors

Operating LeverageFY10 2.9 1.9 1.5

FY11 1.0 -0.2 1.6

ROCEFY10 64.7% 76.5% 8.7%

FY11 91.6% 60.7% 17.6%

ROAFY10 44.2% 60.2% 4.9%

FY11 70.3% 48.3% 10.7%

Dividend PayoutFY10 34.0% 98.4% 32.4%


Source: Bloomberg, ACE, Allegro Calculations

. . .

Cash Conversion Cycle(Days)

FY10 -26 -15 -16FY11 -32 -17 -14

Valuations

Current Price 1723 2059 58

Target Price 1754 2077 73

Upside 2% 9% 26%

FY13E EV/EBITDA 11.8 13.5 7.3

FY13E P/E 14.8 17.9 9.2


27/30

Appendix



28/30

Hero Honda JV Split Analysis

Hero Moto Corp

Promoter Group (51%)Public / Institutions

(49%)

Hero Investments P Ltd(44%)

Bahadur ChandInvestments P Ltd

(7%)

BM Munjal & Family GIC & Bain

Hero Honda Motors

Promoter Group (51%)Public / Institutions

(49%)

Hero Investments P Ltd(18%)

Bahadur ChandInvestments P Ltd

(7%)

BM Mun al & Famil

Honda Motorcycles(26%)


(70%) (30%)(100%)

Deal Features:

Hero Group agreed to buy out Honda Motors stake for a lump-sum payment of Rs. 3800 Cr (Approx Rs 730 / share of Hero Honda).Hondas stake was transferred to Hero Investments Pvt Ltd (HIPL)

In addition Honda would get a fixed payment of Rs. 2450 Cr for the use of the Honda brand name on the existing product line ofHero. New products using Honda technology or branding would attract a royalty of 3% - 5%.

HIPL buys the stake using a bridge finance initially. HIPL got an approval to raise Rs. 4000 Cr worth of FCCBs to finance the deal.

HIPL gets Government Investment Corporation of Singapore (GIC) and Bain Capital to buy 30% stake in HIPL. The deal was for anamount close to $830 million (Approx Rs 1400 / share of Hero Moto Corp)


29/30

5

10

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20

25

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11

/E +1 1

5

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25

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11

/E +1 1

5

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30

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11

/E +1 1

Price / Earnings Charts

A


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11

11 14 16 18 21

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11

7 12 14 17 22

0

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40

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120

140

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11

10 15 20 25


30/30

Premium vs. Market Leader & EV / EBITDA

A

100%

50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 1

/D +1 1

60%

40%

20%

0%

20%

40%

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11

/D +1 1

60%

40%

20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11

/D +1 1

*Note: Hero MotoCorp has been


5

10

15

20

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 1

E /EB DA +1 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11

E/EB DA +1 1

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08 09 09 10 10 11 11

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compared against the BSE AutoIndex

india two wheelers dec 2011

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