N. Venu

Big Shift in Power: Shaping the System of the Future

President and Head, Power Grids Division, South Asia, Middle East and Africa

ABB

India Smart Grid Week, 2017

1

Source: UN World urbanization prospects: 2012 revision

Population growth & urbanization Paris climate agreement (COP 21)

Average global temperature increase <2°C

$100 billion/a to support developing countries

Emission peak soon, 2050 balance of emissions and capturing

Several global challenges

2

Source: UN World urbanization prospects: 2012 revision

Grid interconnection DigitalizationDemand management

Residential roof top solar plus

Micro- and Nano-grids New business modelsEnergy storage & power quality

Elements of the evolving grid

…the Energy Revolution in combination with Digitalization, impacting across the value chain

3

units <50 MW connected to MV/LV, Source: BNEF, ABB analysis

Power balance tipping towards

renewables, driven by policy &

disruptive technology cost

reduction

Main growth in variable

renewables such as wind and

solar

Two growth paths

– Mainly centralized renewables

– Mainly distributed renewables

Power generation Coal, gas, nuclear, oil

2015 2010 2015 2030 2035 2040Perc

enta

ge o

f to

tal

pow

er

genera

tion

All RES Variable RES Distributed*

RES

100

Renewables expected to be dominant source for electrical power generation

Changing power generation balance

Centralized vs decentralized

RES c

ontr

ibuti

on t

o a

nnual

tota

l dem

and [

%]

0 10 20 30 4050 60 70 80 90 100

Distributed RES* contribution to annual total demand [%]

C-RES D-RES

2030

2020

2015

2030

2020

2015

2015

2020

2030

2030

2020

2015

DK, Ministry of Energy

DE, Energiewende

IN, 5-years dev’t plan

CN, Government plan

CH, Energy Strategy 2050

100

4

1 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance & pv.energytrend.com

2 Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Batteries & photovoltaic

• Dramatic cost reduction – to be continued

• Scalability of technologies

• Consumer investment across market segments accelerating developments

Price history of silicon PV cells1 Yearly demand for EV batt. power2Cost for lithium-ion battery packs2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

gigawatt hours

Estimated

Actual

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

$1,200 per kilowatt hour90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

$76.00

$0.30

$/w

att

1977

1981

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Disruptive developments driving key changes

5

Grid – enabler or bottleneck?

Take away message

Significant grid investment & technologies required to address challenges

Technical challenges countries encounter

Conventional operation

System inertia & grid voltage

Max.

hourl

y v

ari

able

renew

able

genera

tion

as

a p

erc

enta

ge o

f to

tal

dem

and

2012

Short circuit power & significant variable RES curtailment

Grid capacity & reserve

2040Today

Germany

6

A global interconnected grid brings many advantages

A global interconnected HVDC grid would bring many advantages…

ABB is building the world’s1st multi-terminal UHVDC grid

Renewable integration across regions

– Fluctuations during the day

– Seasonal variations

Optimal use of reserve and peaking capacities

Diversification of electricity supply

Reduction of wholesale electricity price

volatility

Strengthening grid operation in case of fault

conditions

Increase capacity utilization factor

of conventional generation

Opportunities

7

Microgrids and integration of renewables

Grid code compliant integration of wind & solar

Stabilizing weak grids

Microgrids acting as one controllable generator or load

Access to power in remote locations

Resilient and cost-

effective technologyMarble Bar, Australia

PV* (300 kW)

Diesel (1280 kW)

Flywheel (500 kW)

Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA

Wind (9MW)

Diesel

Flywheel (2 x 1MW)

8

Power quality & storage solutions increasingly needed

Dispatchable = more $ per kWh

Postponement of grid upgrades

New revenue

from ancillary

grid services

Stabilization

Reduced fees from

harmonic pollution &

demand peaks

Grid

Industry and large commercial

Generation

Residential and small commercialMicrogrids

Transport

Higher reliability

rail network

PQ

PQ

Storage

Storage

PQ

Storage

PQ

Storage

PQ

Storage

PQ

Storage

PQ

Storage

Compliance with grid codes

Storage Increase self-consumption

PQ

Storage

PQ

Storage

Integration of distributed renewables & EV

9

From conventional to digital substations

CAPEX reduction

– Reduced footprint (AIS)

– Up to 80% less copper cabling

Reduced engineering & installation time

Improved safety

OPEX reduction

– Asset health & predictive maintenance

– Up to 50% reduction in outages

Fast & easy reconfiguration

Fit for future grid requirements

275 kV digital substation with digital sensors

& 61850 digital communication bus, in operation since 2011

Queensland, Australia

Enabling flexibility for new and existing substations

10

Power systems of the future-an evolutionary vision

Renewables will take major share in electrical power generation

– Disruptive elements

• Photovoltaics

• Batteries

• Digitalization

– Distributed generation with changing consumer & producer patterns

– Distribution grid role changing

– Transmission backbone essential

– New business & operational models Self sufficiency x %

Storage capacity x kWh

Grid

Interconnection

Interconnected system of regional grids with fluctuating demand and generation patterns

11

THANK YOU