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IIFL Group’s Quarterly Results for Q3 FY13 January 30, 2013 India Infoline Group

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Page 1: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

IIFL Group’s Quarterly Results for Q3 FY13

January 30, 2013

India Infoline Group

Page 2: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

I: IIFL Group Performance review

II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

Annexure I: Corporate overview

Annexure II: Industry update

Page 3: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

• Six quarters of consistent profit growth, highest ever quarterly profits

• Income at ` 696 Cr, up 7% qoq, up 45% yoy

• PAT* at ` 75 Cr, up 12% qoq , up 106% yoy

• RoE stood at 15.6% for the quarter, annualized

• Interim dividend declared at ` 3 per share i.e. 150% of par value

• Loan book grows steadily to ` 8,936 Cr in Q3FY13 from ` 7,849 Cr in Q2FY13

• Loan assets predominantly retail, are fully secured

• Loan assets exhibit high quality with net NPAs of 0.25%

• IIFL Wealth continues steady growth and has assets under advice of over ` 36,000 Cr

• Equities market volumes remain subdued, IIFL volumes flattish at ` 5,184 Cr per day

• Commodities market volumes witness decline amid low volatility

• Insurance and mutual fund distribution witness healthy growth

*Before providing for Minority interest, PAT after Minority interest is ` 73 Cr

Dec ‘12 Quarter profits more than double yoy, driven by 45% yoy income growth

IIFL Group Consolidated Performance Review

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IIFL Group’s income and PAT rising consistently for last 6 quarters

EBDTA Margin (%)

Return on Equity (%)

Total Income(` Cr)

Profit after Tax (` Cr)

411 480

636 583

653 696

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

23

36

49 53

67 75

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

5.2

8.3

11.1 11.9

14.6 15.6

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

Net of Intergroup Net of Interest cost

Before Minority interest Quarterly annualised

IIFL Group Consolidated Performance Review

13.2 14.3 15.6

17.4 17.8 19.3

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

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` Cr Q3FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY12 QoQ YoY

Broking and related income 143.5 134.0 126.2 7.1% 13.6%

Financing and Investing income 469.5 457.9 287.5 2.6% 63.3%

Marketing and Distribution income 80.6 59.3 65.5 35.9% 23.0%

Other income 2.1 2.0 1.2 3.9% 74.4%

Total Income 695.7 653.2 480.4 6.5% 44.8%

A. Operating cost 85.1 84.4 53.7 0.8% 58.5%

B. Employee cost 135.7 139.2 130.3 (2.5%) 4.2%

C. Other expenses 118.6 117.1 91.3 1.3% 30.0%

EBITDA 356.3 312.5 205.2 14.0% 73.6%

Interest 222.2 196.5 136.4 13.1% 62.9%

Depreciation and amortization 27.6 20.2 19.5 36.6% 41.1%

Profit / (Loss) before tax 106.6 95.8 49.3 11.2% 116.3%

Provision for taxation 31.4 28.6 12.9 10.0% 144.2%

Profit/(Loss) after tax before minority 75.1 67.2 36.4 11.7% 106.4%

Minority Interest 2.0 1.4 0.6 40.0% 226.7%

Profit/(Loss) after tax 73.2 65.8 35.8 11.1% 104.4%

IIFL Group Consolidated Quarterly Results for Dec’12 compared qoq and yoy

IIFL Group Consolidated Performance Review

Page 6: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

IIFL Group Consolidated YTD Results for 9 months ended Dec’12 compared yoy

` Cr 9MFY13 9MFY12 YoY FY12

Broking and related income 402.5 399.1 0.8% 545.8

Financing and Investing income 1,335.7 698.8 91.2% 1,090.5

Marketing and Distribution income 187.8 149.5 25.6% 243.1

Other income 5.5 3.5 56.7% 7.2

Total Income 1,931.5 1,250.9 54.4% 1,886.6

A. Operating cost 242.5 166.5 45.7% 258.3

B. Employee cost 399.7 334.2 19.6% 491.7

C. Other expenses 328.4 244.5 34.3% 352.3

EBITDA 960.9 505.7 90.0% 784.3

Interest 609.6 325.1 87.5% 504.3

Depreciation and amortization 66.9 53.6 24.8% 80.2

Profit / (Loss) before tax 284.4 127.0 124.0% 199.8

Provision for taxation 89.3 39.7 124.8% 63.5

Profit/(Loss) after tax before minority 195.1 87.3 123.6% 136.3

Minority Interest 3.9 2.1 88.0% 4.0

Profit/(Loss) after tax 191.2 85.2 124.5% 132.3

*Before providing for Minority interest

IIFL Group Consolidated Performance Review

Page 7: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

• Average daily turnover was at ` 5,148 Cr in Q3FY13 up 3% qoq, down 0.6% yoy

• Market share on NSE was at 3.7% in Q3FY13 as compared to 3.8% in Q2FY13

• Present in over 2,000 business locations through branches and sub-brokers

• Brokerage yield remains abysmally low in the hyper competitive industry

Average daily turnover (` Cr)

Despite equity markets upsurge, retail participation still low, IIFL strives to maintain market share

3.6 3.7 3.8 3.4

3.8 3.7

Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

3.1 3.1

3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

Market share on NSE (%) Brokerage yield (Bps)

Avg Cash TO

Avg FAO TO

Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

IIFL Group Consolidated Performance Review

Page 8: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

• Over 250 stocks under coverage

• Our in-depth, thematic research

published during the quarter include

• China – Commodities: China

braces for a change as the country

enters a slower growth phase

• The Winning Dozen: 12 stocks

showing stellar performance

• India – Utilities: Report

summarizing key reforms that

would improve Power sector

prospects

IIFL Research remains port of first call for fund managers, coverage further expanded

IIFL Group Consolidated Performance Review

Page 9: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

• Average daily commodities turnover was at ` 1,617 Cr in Q3FY13, down 11% qoq and up 4% yoy

• Commodities market share was 3.0% in Q3FY13

• Average daily currency turnover was `647 Cr in Q3FY13

Amid lower volatility, commodity volumes were down, in line with the market

1,779 1,560 1,484 1,492

1,818 1,617

Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

570

702

540 629

722 647

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

Average daily commodities turnover (` Cr)

Average daily currency turnover (` Cr) Commodities market share (%)

2.1 2.4

2.7 2.8 3.1 3.0

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

IIFL Group Consolidated Performance Review

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IIFL emerges as one of the leading player in wealth management and financial products distribution

• Assets under advice are over ` 36,000 Cr

• Weighted Annualized insurance premium income mobilization was ` 217 Cr for 9MFY13

• IIFL distributes mutual fund on open architecture. IIFL Clients MF AUM is over ` 12,000 Cr

• Launched the first of its kind Category II Alternative Investment Fund (AIF)

• Closed the largest QFI transaction in India till date of US $110mn in Oct ’12

• With unprecedented tightening of regulatory framework on disclosure, commission etc, industry is undergoing consolidation; we remain sanguine for long term prospects

MF Industry AUM (` Bn)

6,419 6,114 5,872

6,888 7,201 7,599

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

APE growth YoY

(4)

16 1

(17)

5

(7)

28

(13) (26) (19) (17) (22)

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

Jun

/1

2

Jul/

12

Au

g/

12

Sep

/1

2

Oct

/1

2

No

v/

12

Private Players LIC

IIFL Group Consolidated Performance Review

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• IIFL was sole financial advisor to Cox & Kings for Citi Venture Capital International (CVCI) investment in its UK subsidiary

• IIFL was book runner for the Qualified Institutions Placement (QIP) of Talwalkars Better Value Fitness Ltd

• Repeat business reflects strong client satisfaction with IIFL and our ability to work across client’s life cycle

• A good pipeline of mandates under execution, across capital markets, private equity and structured finance deals

IIFL Investment Banking acted as the sole advisor for one of the largest cross border deals

US$137.75 Mn

Prometheon Holdings (UK) Ltd. (Subsidiary of Cox & Kings Ltd.)

Sole Advisor

Private Equity Funding by CVCI

INR 424 Mn Talwalkars Better Value

Fitness Ltd.

Qualified Institutions Placement

IIFL Group Consolidated Performance Review

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I: IIFL Group Performance review

II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

Annexure I: Corporate overview

Annexure II: Industry update

Page 13: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

For 9 months of current financial year ended Dec’12,

• Income from Operations at ` 1,217 Cr, up 111% yoy

• PBT at ` 199 Cr, up 89% yoy

• PAT* at ` 138 Cr, up 81% yoy

• Capital adequacy has improved to 22.6%, boosted by infusion of Tier-II capital

• Loan book grows steadily to ` 8,936 Cr as on Q3FY13 from ` 7,849 Cr in Q2FY13

• Book exhibits high quality assets, with low net NPAs at 0.25%

• Net interest margin and spread remain healthy, driven by retail nature of book

• Borrowing profile gets more diversified; cost of funds trending down

• Relative share of gold loan has been on decline post tightening of norms by RBI

Strong growth in YTD income and PAT *; Income up 111% yoy; PAT* up 81% yoy

*Before providing for Minority interest

IIFL NBFC Performance Review

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IIFL Finance Consolidated YTD Results for 9 months ended Dec’12 compared yoy

` Cr 9MFY13 9MFY12 YoY FY12

Income from operations 1,216.7 577.8 110.6% 908.5

Other income 39.7 34.4 15.5% 45.1

Total Income 1,256.4 612.2 105.2% 953.6

A. Operating cost 118.3 39.5 199.4% 62.2

B. Employee cost 131.5 68.0 93.4% 109.3

C. Other expenses 155.7 84.5 84.3% 137.1

EBITDA 851.0 420.2 102.5% 645.0

Interest 627.9 304.8 106.0% 479.8

Depreciation and amortization 23.8 9.8 143.3% 15.0

Profit / (Loss) before tax 199.3 105.6 88.7% 150.2

Provision for taxation 61.6 29.5 109.1% 44.8

Profit/(Loss) after tax 137.7 76.1 80.8% 105.4

IIFL NBFC Performance Review

Page 15: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

41% 37%

10% 12%

37% 36%

2% 3%

10% 12%

• Loan portfolio in Q3FY13 steadily increased to ` 8,936 Cr as against ` 7,849 Cr in Q2FY13

• Predominantly retail book, wholesale lending accounts for only 9% of total financial assets

• Loan book comprises entirely secured lending against tangible collaterals

• Gold loan product’s relative share is being brought down consciously, post RBI’s tightening of norms

• Diversifying risk with multiple products against collaterals of mortgage, property, gold jewellery, medical equipment, shares etc

Loan book is diversified and growing steadily, relative share of Gold Loan has fallen

Gold loan

Capital market

Mortgage loan

Medical equipment

Other financial assets

Q1FY13 Q3FY13

IIFL NBFC Performance Review

Changing mix of financial assets Financial assets as on Dec 31, 2012

` Cr

A Loan Book 8,936

B Securitised /assigned portfolio

427

C Other Financial Assets 1,234

D AUM (A+B) 9,363

E Total Financial Assets (A+C)

10,170

Other financial assets comprise cash, bank, fixed deposits , bonds, mutual funds investments etc

Page 16: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

NIM and spread maintained at healthy levels, supported by retail lending

• Retail book enjoys high spread and NIM with concomitant high operations cost

• NIM has tapered off in last quarter, with decline in share of Gold Loans

• With increasing leverage, divergence between spread and NIM is reducing

• IIFL plans to remain focussed on retail business and maintain healthy NIM

NIM (%)

Spread (%)

6.8

8.5 8.7

10.2 10.5 9.2

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

4.2

6.0 6.9

8.4 8.8 8.5

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

IIFL NBFC Performance Review

Page 17: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

• IIFL has been successfully bringing down cost of funds with improving credit acceptability and expanding lenders’ base

• Cost to Income has been falling on the back of higher productivity from branches

• IIFL focus is to take branches to optimum asset level, before embarking upon next phase of expansion

Cost of funds and cost to income are trending down

Cost of Funds (%)

Cost to Income (%)

32.8 33.4 36.0 35.3

32.2 28.9

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

11.5 11.7

12.3 12.6

12.2

11.7

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

IIFL NBFC Performance Review

Page 18: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

IIFL’s high asset quality is reflected in low NPAs and strong financials in robust capital adequacy

• IIFL boosted its capital adequacy by raising ` 500 Cr through a public issue of sub-ordinated bonds in Q2FY13

• Further improvement in capital adequacy in Q3FY13, was with elimination of inter group exposures

• IIFL’s steadfast commitment to maintain high asset quality through superior credit processes is reflected in low NPA levels

• IIFL provisioning is more conservative than statutory requirements

Capital Adequacy (%)

Net NPA (%)

0.31 0.25

0.40 0.38

0.32

0.25

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

19.9

16.4 17.9

16.2

20.6 22.6

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

IIFL NBFC Performance Review

Page 19: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

A ROBUST strategy in place

Retail focus

Focus on high growth, dispersed risk- retail lending where IIFL can leverage its distribution strength

Operations

excellence

Build a process driven organization with a culture of compliance and audit

Bouquet of

products

Diversify risk through multiple products catering to different profile of borrowers

Under-

banked niches

Face minimal competition with banks in their core businesses to ensure NIM and ROA at desired levels

Secured

lending

Build primarily a secured portfolio with adequate margin of safety in collateral value

Technology

driven

Leverage technology for risk monitoring, cost control and enhancing customer experience

Steadily grow high quality, diversified retail assets focusing on under-banked segments, keeping cost and risk under control through well defined processes, leveraging technology

Focus on high growth, dispersed risk- retail lending where IIFL can leverage its distribution strength

Build a process driven organization with a culture of compliance and audit

Diversify risk through multiple products catering to different profile of borrowers

IIFL NBFC Performance Review

Page 20: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

I: IIFL Group Performance review

II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

Annexure I: Corporate overview

Annexure II: Industry update

Page 21: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

Customer Strategy

2

Drive stickiness through high quality research & service

Maintain cutting-edge proprietary technology

Wide, multi-modal network serving as one-stop shop to customers

Business Strategy

1

Continuously assimilate, analyse and apply knowledge to power superior financial decisions

Focus on core competence in financial services

Ensure de-risked business through multiple products and diverse revenue streams

People Strategy

3

Attract exceptionally talented and driven people

Ensure conducive merit environment

Liberal ownership-sharing

Vision

“To become the Most Respected Company in the financial services space”

KNOWLEDE IS THE EDGE

Vision and Strategy

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• Team with impeccable academic and professional credentials

• Open door, transparent and performance oriented culture

• Liberal employee ownership

Management team

Corporate Functions Verticals

Institutional Equities

Investment Banking

Consumer Finance

Retail Broking

Wealth Management

International Operations

H. Nemkumar

Pratima Ram

Prasanth Prabhakaran

Karan Bhagat

Bharat Parajia

Management Team

Finance

Compliance

Operations

Audit

Human Resources

Dhruv Jain

R Mohan

Narendra Jain

Kamal Ahuja

Pallab Mukherji

Offshore Advisory Amit Shah

Insurance Distribution Mukesh Kumar Singh

Chairman Nirmal Jain Managing Director R. Venkataraman

Risk Upendra Jaiswal

Nipun Goel

Page 23: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

A K Purwar Independent Director

Former Chairman, State Bank of India

Nilesh Vikamsey Independent Director

Central Council Member, ICAI & Partner of M/s Khimji Kunverji & Co.

Kranti Sinha Independent Director

Former Chief Executive Officer of LIC Housing

Finance

M N Singh Independent Director

IPS (Retd), Former Commissioner of Police,

Mumbai

Sunil Kaul Non Executive Director

Operating Partner, Carlyle Group

C Ratnaswami Non Executive Director Managing Director of

Hamblin Watsa (Fairfax Group, Canada)

V K Chopra Independent Director Former Chairman &

Managing Director of Corporation Bank

Dr S Narayan Independent Director

IAS (Retd), Former Finance Secretary

R S Loona Independent Director

Former Executive Director (Law) of SEBI

A K Shukla Independent Director

Former Chairman of LIC

Homai Daruwala Independent Director

Former Chairperson & Managing Director of Central Bank of India

P Pattanayak Independent Director

Former Managing Director of State Bank of

Mysore

IIFL has attracted luminaries from the Indian financial world to guide the management

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•Institutional equities

•Derivatives •Investment banking

•Corporate debt

•Wealth management

•Financial advisory

•Financing

Retail Affluent

Institutional Corporate

CUSTOMER SEGMENTS

Our service offerings

Equities

Insurance

Credit & finance

Wealth management

Asset management

Investment banking

•Equities, commodities broking •Mutual funds distribution •Insurance distribution •Loans

Business model

Page 25: India Infoline Groupcontent.indiainfoline.com/admin/PDF/378032876_IIFL_Q3FY13_Analyst... · India Infoline Group . I: IIFL Group Performance review II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

How we differentiate ourselves

• Promoted by first generation professional entrepreneurs

• Highly qualified and experienced Management team Managerial depth

• Group net worth of around `1,965 Cr

• Significant unutilized capacity to leverage Well-capitalized

• Present at over 4,000 business locations across more than 900 cities in India

• Global footprint covers Colombo, Dubai, New York, Mauritius and Singapore Distribution reach

• The top management is driven by pride and reward of ownership

• To think and work like an owner is part of organization’s DNA Owner-mindset

• Uniquely placed with proprietary front, mid and back office software

• Effectively harnessed technology to provide superior customer experience Technology edge

• De-risked and diversified business model across multiple revenue streams

• Multiple products across all segments of financial services De-risked

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Recent awards and accolades received by IIFL

IIFL Analyst receives “Best Analyst” award from then Finance Minister,

Shri Pranab Mukherjee

Mr R Venkataraman received the award on behalf of IIFL at the D&B

Equity Broking Awards, 2012

BEST

COMMODITIES INVESTMENT 2012

BEST WEALTH MANAGEMENT HOUSE – INDIA

2011 & 2012

BEST MARKET ANALYST 2009 &

2012

ENTREPRENEUR OF THE YEAR

(MR NIRMAL JAIN) - 2012

BEST BROKING HOUSE WITH

GLOBAL PRESENCE 2011 & 2012

TOP PERFORMER – EQUITY – FI

CATEGORY – 2012

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IIFL Holds Financial Literacy Workshops in Mumbai

Over 50,000 school students enrolled from over 190

schools across India for 2012-13 batch in the FLAME education programme

FLAME (IIFL’s Financial Literacy Campaign) update

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I: IIFL Group Performance review

II: IIFL (NBFC) Performance review

Annexure I: Corporate overview

Annexure II: Industry update

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Source: Bloomberg, IIFL Research

Source: CMIE, IIFL Research, FY13 GDP data is Advance Estimate

Macro economy

Source: CMIE, FAO, Govt of India, NDDB, IMD, IIFL Research

Source: CMIE, IIFL Research

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3% 2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

FY9

0

FY9

1

FY9

2

FY9

3

FY9

4

FY9

5

FY9

6

FY9

7

FY9

8

FY9

9

FY0

0

FY0

1

FY0

2

FY0

3

FY0

4

FY0

5

FY0

6

FY0

7

FY0

8

FY0

9

FY1

0

FY1

1

FY1

2

Real GDP growth (LHS)

Current account deficit (RHS) (3yr Cagr)

(% of GDP, 3yr avg)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

19

90

1

99

1

19

92

1

99

3

19

94

1

99

5

19

96

1

99

7

19

98

1

99

9

20

00

2

00

1

20

02

2

00

3

20

04

2

00

5

20

06

2

00

7

20

08

2

00

9

20

10

2

01

1

20

12

Agri GDP growth Monsoon deviation from average (rhs)

(YoY

(%)

Growth may remain below trend

Near term Inflation is coming off due to base effect

6.7

8.4 8.4

6.5

5.5 6.0

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13ii FY14ii

Real GDP growth (YoY)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

WPI - Overall WPI - Core inflation YoY,

Until recently, widening current account deficit has generally meant faster growth

Monsoon is the key driver of near term growth

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Source: Exchange website, IIFL Research

Equities

83,640

77,186

78,725

75,679 74,772

78,344

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

Cash market volumes picking up again (` bn)

FAO market volumes* (` bn)

Constant share of delivery and intra day

Steady share of options *

41% 40% 41% 40% 44% 48%

59% 60% 59% 60% 56% 52%

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

Delivery Intra Day

24% 23% 26% 22% 22% 22%

76% 77% 74% 78% 78% 78%

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

Futures Options

8,677

7,154

10,224

7,455 7,882 8,502

Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

*Doesnot include BSE volumes

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Source: CMIE, RBI, World Bank, Bloomberg, IIFL Research

0

20

40

60

80

100

FY9

1

FY9

2

FY9

3

FY9

4

FY9

5

FY9

6

FY9

7

FY9

8

FY9

9

FY0

0

FY0

1

FY0

2

FY0

3

FY0

4

FY0

5

FY0

6

FY0

7

FY0

8

FY0

9

FY1

0

FY1

1

PSUs

Private sector

Foreign

(%)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12

Credit growth relative to nominal GDP Average

Credit and Finance

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

%

SLR

CRR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Dec

/90

D

ec/9

1

Dec

/92

D

ec/9

3

Dec

/94

D

ec/9

5

Dec

/96

D

ec/9

7

Dec

/98

D

ec/9

9

Dec

/00

D

ec/0

1

Dec

/02

D

ec/0

3

Dec

/04

D

ec/0

5

Dec

/06

D

ec/0

7

Dec

/08

D

ec/0

9

Dec

/10

D

ec/1

1

(%)

Investment-deposit

Loan-deposit ratio

Credit growth to nominal GDP has been relatively sluggish

PSU banks steadily losing market share in the credit market

Loan–deposit ratio has structurally moved up

Reserve ratios - CRR and SLR trend

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Source: Bloomberg, IIFL Research

Source: Bloomberg, IIFL Research Source: Bloomberg, IIFL Research

Source: RBI, CMIE, IIFL Research

Capital raising and fund flows Capital raised through QIPs

(` bn)

Net FII flows (US$bn)

Capital raised through IPOs (` bn)

FDI inflows (US$bn)

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

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Source: IRDA

Source: AMFI Source: AMFI

Source: CMIE, RBI, World Bank, IIFL Research

Insurance and Mutual funds APE growth yoy

(%)

AUM by asset class (` Bn)

Modest increase in non banking system

Average AUM for the Quarter (` bn)

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Thank you

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