index of industrial production april 2016 iip april 2016.pdf · the index of industrial production...

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HIGHLIGHTS

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted by 0.8% in April 2016 in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms, inferior to the 3.0% rise in April 2015 and our expectation of a mild growth in that month.

The contraction in manufacturing output deepened to 3.1% in April 2016 from 1.0% in March 2016. Moreover, manufacturing output declined on a y-o-y basis for the fifth time in six months, which is disheartening.

The robust growth of the core sector industries and consumer durables in April 2016 was inadequate to stave off the drag exerted by the sharp y-o-y decline in output of capital goods and consumer non-durables.

While the deep contraction in capital goods was driven by a few items, it nevertheless highlights that investment activity by the private sector remains feeble.

The improvement in growth of consumer durables on a sequential basis in April 2016 despite an unfavourable base effect, stood out as the key positive trend amongst the use based industries.

OVERVIEW

The IIP Index contracted by 0.8% in y-o-y terms in April 2016 (refer Chart 1 and Table 1), inferior to the 3.0% growth in April 2015 as well as our forecast (+1.8%) and consensus expectations (+0.6%). The contraction in output of capital goods (-24.9%; +5.5% in April 2015) and consumer non-durables (-9.7%; +3.7% in April 2015) exerted a substantial drag on industrial expansion in April 2016. The performance of capital goods in April 2016 was the weakest in 46 months, with distortions introduced by the surprisingly sharp 96.2% slump in production of items such as rubber insulated cables. IIP excluding capital goods rose by a modest 2.5% in April 2016. While output of intermediate goods (+3.7%; +2.3% in April 2015) and basic goods (+4.8%; +2.6% in April 2015) recorded a modest growth, consumer durables expanded by a robust 11.8% in April 2016 (+1.3% in April 2015).

The performance of the IIP Index weakened further in April 2016 as compared to the low growth of 2.0% in February 2016 and 0.3% in March 2016, culminating in the fourth month of contraction in the last six months. The use-based categories displayed a mixed trend in sequential months. The contraction recorded by capital goods (to -24.9% from -15.3%) and consumer non-durables (to -9.7% from -5.0%) worsened, and the growth recorded by intermediate goods (to +3.7% from +4.4%) dipped in April 2016 as compared to March 2016. In contrast, growth of basic goods improved modestly to 4.8% in April 2016 from 4.4% in March 2016. Encouragingly, growth of consumer durables improved to 11.8% in April 2016 (+1.3% in April 2015) from 9.9% in March 2016 (-4.6% in March 2015), despite an unfavourable base effect. Moreover, the pace of growth of core sector industries improved to 8.5% in April 2016 from 6.4% in March 2016; the core sector outperformed the overall IIP Index for the sixth month in a row.

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION APRIL 2016

IIP Index contracts by 0.8% in April 2016 on account of drag exerted by capital goods, consumer non-durables

JUNE 2016

Contact: Aditi Nayar +91 124 4545 385 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


In terms of the sectoral classification, electricity generation expanded by a robust 14.6% in April 2016 as compared to a contraction of 0.5% in April 2015 (refer Chart 2). The electricity sector remained the chief driver of growth for the third consecutive month in April 2016 (refer Chart 3). Moreover, mining output recorded a growth of 1.4% in April 2016 as compared to the 0.6% contraction in April 2015. As compared to the 3.9% rise in April 2015, manufacturing output contracted by 3.1% on a y-o-y basis in April 2016, recording a y-o-y decline for the fifth time in six months. Nine of the 22 sub-sectors of manufacturing with a weight of 37.0% in the IIP Index recorded a contraction in April 2016, whereas 13 sub-sectors with a combined weight of 38.6% in the IIP Index, recorded an expansion. The pace of growth of the IIP Index in March 2016 has been revised up marginally to 0.3% from the initial 0.1%, with upward revision in growth of basic goods (to +4.4% from +4.0%), intermediate goods (to +4.4% from +3.7%) and consumer durables (to +9.9% from +8.7%), offset by a deeper contraction of output of consumer non-durables (to -5.0% from -4.4%).

OUTLOOK

The output of Coal India Limited (CIL) expanded by 3.9% in May 2016 after the y-o-y contraction of 3.4% in April 2016, which would provide a considerable boost to mining output growth in the just concluded month. However, with a waning of the favourable base effect, growth of electricity generation has moderated to a modest ~5% in May 2016 (~6% in May 2015), according to the initial data released by the CEA. This was led by a halving in growth of thermal electricity generation and continued contraction of hydroelectricity generation as well as a seasonal change in the mix between these two sources. The growth of aggregate auto production improved to 11.6% in May 2016 from 10.9% in y-o-y terms in April 2016, according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Growth in production of commercial vehicles improved to a sharp 18.1% in May 2016 from 14.2% in April 2016, which would boost the performance of capital goods. Growth in output of two-wheelers also rose to 14.4% in May 2016 from 13.1% in April 2016. However, that of passenger vehicles declined to a marginal 0.2% in May 2016 from 5.2% in April 2016, which would dampen the growth of consumer durables. Overall, the growth of the IIP Index in May 2016 would likely under-perform the 2.5% rise recorded in May 2015. In Q4 FY2016, the contraction in manufacturing volumes revealed by the IIP was at odds with the healthy growth in manufacturing GVA as well as corporate earnings. While the persisting contraction in manufacturing volumes in April 2016 is discouraging, this trend may reverse post a favourable monsoon and impending pay revision for Central Government employees.


Table 1: Trend in IIP Growth

Sectoral Use-Based Classification IIP Mining Manufacturing Electricity Basic Capital Intermediate Durables Non-Durables

Weight 100.00% 14.16% 75.53% 10.32% 45.68% 8.83% 15.69% 8.46% 21.35%

Month Mar-15 2.5% 1.2% 2.7% 2.0% 2.6% 9.1% 2.8% -4.6% 1.9% Apr-15 3.0% -0.6% 3.9% -0.5% 2.6% 5.5% 2.3% 1.3% 3.7% Mar-16 0.3% 0.3% -1.0% 11.8% 4.4% -15.3% 4.4% 9.9% -5.0% Apr-16 -0.8% 1.4% -3.1% 14.6% 4.8% -24.9% 3.7% 11.8% -9.7% FY2015 2.8% 1.4% 2.3% 8.4% 6.9% 6.3% 1.7% -12.6% 2.8% FY2016 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 5.7% 3.6% -2.9% 2.5% 11.3% -1.8%

Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), ICRA research

Chart 1: Y-o-Y Growth in IIP Chart 2: Y-o-Y Growth in Sectoral Indices

Source: CSO; ICRA research Source: CSO; ICRA research

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

-8%

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12%

16%

20%

Mining Manufacturing Electricity


SECTORAL GROWTH Manufacturing: Manufacturing output contracted by a considerable 3.1% in April 2016 as compared to the revised 1.0% decline on a y-o-y basis in March 2016, partly on account of an unfavourable base effect (+3.9% in April 2015; +2.7% in March 2015). The contraction in manufacturing sector in April 2016 broadly mirrored the widening contraction of non-oil non-primary merchandise exports to 3.8% in April 2016 from 2.2% in March 2016. The number of sub-sectors of manufacturing recording a y-o-y decline in output (refer Tables 2 and 3) declined to 9 in April 2016 (with a weight of 37.0% in the IIP Index) from 10 in March 2016 (with a weight of 38.1%). The output of basic metals contracted for the ninth consecutive month, albeit by a marginal 0.3% in April 2016. While the output of aluminium foils contracted by a substantial 66.3% in April 2016, H R sheets and aluminium wires & extrusions expanded by 29.6% and 26.4%, respectively, in April 2016. The pace of contraction of food products & beverages worsened to a substantial 24.5% in April 2016 from 16.5% in March 2016. This sub-group contracted for the twelfth consecutive month in April 2016. The output of sugar (including sugar cubes) and molasses with a combined weight of 1.6% in the IIP Index, contracted by a significant 65.3% and 41.1% in April 2016. However, the output of aerated waters & soft drinks increased by 28.2% in that month. The output of electrical machinery & apparatus continued to witness double-digit contraction for the sixth consecutive month in April 2016, the pace of which worsened to a sharp 55.9% from 36.3% in March 2016. This was led by the substantial 96.2% y-o-y decline in the production of rubber insulated cables, which dampened IIP growth by 3.7% as per the data published by the CSO. Additionally, the pace of contraction of publishing, printing & reproduction of recorded media worsened to 12.0% in April 2016 from 9.8% in March 2016. Similarly, the contraction displayed by luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness & footwear; tanning & dressing of leather products deepened to 9.9% in April 2016 from 5.6% in March 2016. After expanding by 2.5% in March 2016, the sub-group chemicals & chemical products contracted by a mild 0.9% in April 2016, led by the decline in the output of antibiotics & its preparations.

Table 2: Sub-Sectors Displaying Contraction in April 2016

Source: CSO, ICRA research

Table 3: Sub-Sectors Displaying Contraction in April 2016


Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 Number of Sub-Sectors 7 10 9 Weight in the IIP Index 26.1% 38.1% 37.0% Combined Growth -10.7% -8.5% -13.9%

Sub-Sectors Weight Growth in Apr 16

Comment

Basic Metals 11.3 -0.3%

Contracted in Mar 2015

Food Products & Beverages 7.3 -24.5%

Electrical Machinery & Apparatus N.E.C.

2.0 -55.9%

Publishing, Printing & Reproduction of Recorded Media

1.1 -12.0%

Luggage, Handbags, Saddlery, Harness & Footwear; Tanning & Dressing of Leather Products

0.6 -9.9%

Chemicals & Chemical Products Rubber & Plastic Products Tobacco Products Wood & Products of Wood & Cork Except Furniture; Articles of Straw & Plating Materials

10.1 2.0 1.6

1.1

-0.9% -0.8%

-17.6%

-3.5%

Expanded in Mar 2015


Rubber & plastic products also recorded a mild contraction of 0.8% in April 2016 (+0.5% in March 2016), led by the 46.8% decline in the output of polythene bags. Additionally, the output of wood & products of wood & cork except furniture; articles of straw & plating materials contracted by 3.5% in April 2016 in contrast to the 2.0% rise in output in March 2016. After expanding in double-digits in February 2016 and March 2016, the output of tobacco products contracted by 17.6% in April 2016, led by the decline in the output of biri by 40.3% in that month. 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing, with a weight of 38.6% in the IIP Index, recorded an expansion in April 2016. The pace of expansion of coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel improved to 17.1% in April 2016 from 11.2% in March 2016, partly led by increase in the output of petrol and aviation turbine fuel by a sharp 27.7% and 102.5%, respectively. In addition, the rise in the production of high speed diesel, with a substantial weight of 2.1% in the IIP, contributed to the expansion of this sub-group in April 2016. Moreover, the output of furniture, manufacturing N.E.C doubled to 28.0% in April 2016, benefitting from the 34.4% rise in the production of gems & jewellery. This sub-group has consistently recorded double-digit growth since December 2014, aside from the 9.4% growth recorded in April 2015. Machinery & equipment N.E.C. expanded by 7.6% in April 2016, in contrast to the 1.4% contraction in March 2016. Notably, this sub-group recorded an expansion in April 2016 despite the y-o-y decline in output of plastic machinery including moulding machinery (23.3%) and heat exchangers (65.3%). The output of motor vehicles, trailers & semi trailers rose for the fifth consecutive month, although the pace of expansion nearly halved to 6.6% in April 2016 from 12.4% in March 2016.

The output of radio, TV & communication equipment & apparatus expanded by a robust 18.8% in April 2016, led by the substantial 30.1% increase in the production of telephone instruments including mobile phone & accessories.

Table 4: Contribution to the Manufacturing Sector by Sub-Sectors Sub-Sectors Weight Growth

in Apr 2016

Contribution to Manuf.

Growth Coke, Refined Petroleum Products & Nuclear Fuel

6.7 17.1% 1.1%

Furniture; Manufacturing N.E.C. Machinery & Equipment N.E.C.

3.0 3.8

28.0% 7.6%

0.8% 0.5%

Motor Vehicles, Trailers & Semi-Trailers

4.1 6.6% 0.4%

Radio, TV & Communication Equipment & Apparatus

1.0 18.8% 0.4%

Others Displaying Expansion 20.0 3.3% 0.8%

Others Displaying Contraction 37.0 -13.9% -7.1%


Chart 3: Contribution to IIP Growth in April 2016

Source: CSO; ICRA research

Mining, 0.1%

Basic, 2.1%

Manufacturing, -2.5%

Capital, -3.1%

Electricity, 1.5%

Intermediate, 0.5%

Durables, 1.5%

Non Durables,-1.8%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

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3%

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5%


Mining: The growth of the mining sector rose to 1.4% in April 2016 from the revised 0.3% in March 2016. This was led by a narrower contraction in April 2016 as compared to the previous month in the output of crude oil (-2.3% vs. -5.1%; refer Table 5 and Annexure C) and natural gas (-6.8% from -10.5%). However, the performance of coal production worsened, with a contraction of 0.9% in April 2016 as compared to the low growth of 1.7% in March 2016. Nevertheless, all the three major contributors to mining output, i.e. coal, crude oil and natural gas, recorded a y-o-y decline in April 2016. Electricity: Benefitting from the favourable base effect, the growth of electricity generation rose further to a robust 22-month high 14.6% in April 2016 (-0.5% in April 2015) from 11.8% in March 2016 (2.0% in March 2015). The electricity sector remained the chief driver of growth for the third consecutive month, with a positive contribution of 1.5% to the y-o-y IIP growth in that month. Growth of thermal power generation rose to a sharp ~20% in April 2016 (~-1% in April 2015) from ~16% in March 2016 (~2% in March 2015). The plant load factor improved to a 22-month high 67.8% in April 2016. Additionally, the pace of contraction of hydro electricity generation eased from ~20% in March 2016 (~-6% in March 2015) to ~17% in April 2016 (~-3% in April 2015). However, with a waning of the favourable base effect, growth of electricity generation has moderated to a modest ~5% in May 2016 (~6% in May 2015), according to the initial data released by the CEA. This is led by a halving in growth of thermal electricity generation and continued contraction of hydroelectricity generation as well as a seasonal change in the mix between these two sources.

Table 5: Y-o-Y Growth of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Weight 4.379 5.216 1.708 Feb-15 10.8% -1.9% -8.1% Mar-15 4.5% 1.7% -1.5% Apr-15 8.1% -2.5% -3.6% Feb-16 3.9% 0.8% 1.2% Mar-16 1.7% -5.1% -10.5% Apr-16 -0.9% -2.3% -6.8%

Source: Index of Eight Core Industries, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Office of the Economic Advisor; ICRA research Chart 4: Y-o-Y Growth in IIP and Core-Sector Industries (y-o-y)


-8%

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8%

12%

IIP Core Sector


USE-BASED CLASSIFICATION Basic Goods: The growth of basic goods output increased to 4.8% in April 2016 from the revised 4.4% in March 2016 (refer Chart 5 and Annexure A) The performance of basic goods in April 2016 benefitted from the robust expansion in aviation turbine fuel (102.5%), HR sheets (29.6%) and aluminium wires and extrusions (26.4%). Moreover, data released by the CSO indicates that the high growth of diesel (with a weight of 2.1% in the IIP index) boosted the growth of the IIP by 0.3% in that month. In contrast, the contraction in output of molasses (-41.1%) and aluminium foils (-66.3%), dampened the growth of this sub-sector in April 2016. Moreover, the contraction in plates, with a weight of 1.3% in the IIP index, weighed upon IIP growth by 0.2% in that month. Capital Goods: The output of capital goods contracted for the sixth month in a row by a sharp 24.9% in April 2016 as compared to the revised 15.3% in March 2016 (refer Chart 6). The performance of capital goods in April 2016 was the weakest in 46 months, with distortions introduced by the surprisingly sharp 96.2% slump in production of items such as rubber insulated cables, which dampened IIP growth by 3.7% as per the data published by the CSO. Additionally, contraction in heat exchangers (-65.3%), plastic machinery (-23.3%) and boilers (-20.8%) also dampened the output of capital goods in April 2016. However, the expansion in commercial vehicles boosted IIP growth by 0.3% in April 2016. Intermediate Goods: The growth of intermediate goods output eased to 3.7% in April 2016 from the revised 4.4% in March 2016, despite the robust expansion in petrol by 27.7% (accounting for a weight of 0.6% in the IIP index). Consumer Durables: The pace of growth of consumer durables output increased to a four-month high 11.8% in April 2016 (+1.3% in April 2015) from the revised 9.9% in March 2016 (-4.6% in March 2015; refer Chart 7), despite an unfavourable base effect.

Chart 5: Y-o-Y Growth of Basic Goods

Source: CSO, ICRA research Chart 6: Y-o-Y Growth of Capital Goods


-2%

0%

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4%

6%

8%

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12%

FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

-30%

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0%

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30%

FY2015 FY2016 FY2017


The growth in consumer durables output was supported by the expansion in gems & jewellery, telephone instruments and scooter & mopeds by 34.4%, 30.1% and 24.4%, respectively, in April 2016. Moreover, the growth in gems & jewellery and telephone instruments, which account for a combined weight of 2.0% in the IIP index, boosted the IIP growth for the month by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, according to the data released by the CSO. Consumer Non-Durables: The contraction in output of consumer non-durables worsened considerably to 9.7% in April 2016 (+3.7% in April 2015) from the revised 5.0% in March 2016 (+1.9% in March 2015; refer Chart 8), following the waning of favourable base effect. According to data released by the CSO, the 65.3% contraction in sugar, with a weight of 1.5% in the IIP Index, dampened industrial growth by a substantial 1.4% in April 2016. While overall sugar production has declined by ~11% in the sugar year 2016, there has been a sharper contraction recorded towards the tail months of the sugar season, particularly in Maharashtra and Karnataka. However, given the static weight in the IIP, this contraction has had a disproportionate impact on the overall growth performance for April 2016. Additionally, the contraction in cotton seed oil and antibiotics weighed upon the IIP growth by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, in April 2016. Moreover, the output of polythene bags (-46.8%) and biri (-40.3%), with a combined weight of 0.7% in the IIP index, recorded a substantial y-o-y decline in April 2016. In contrast, there was a sharp expansion in the output of leather garments (40.1%) and aerated drinks (28.2%) in April 2016.

Chart 7: Y-o-Y Growth of Consumer Durables

Source: CSO; ICRA research Chart 8: Y-o-Y Growth of Consumer Non-Durables


-40%

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FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

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FY2015 FY2016 FY2017


ANNEXURE A Chart 9: Y-o-Y Growth in Mining Chart 10: Y-o-Y Growth in Manufacturing


Chart 11: Y-o-Y Growth in Electricity Chart 12: Y-o-Y Growth in Basic Goods


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Chart 13: Y-o-Y Growth in Capital Goods Chart 14: Year-on-Year Growth in Intermediate Goods


Chart 15: Y-o-Y Growth in Consumer Durables Chart 16: Y-o-Y Growth in Consumer Non-Durables


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ANNEXURE B


Items Weight (%)

Growth in April 2016

Manufacturing Sub-Sector Use-Based Classification

Fuel, Aviation Turbine 0.27 102.5% Coke, Refined Petroleum Products & Nuclear Fuel Basic Goods H R Sheets 0.31 29.6% Basic Metals Basic Goods Aluminium wires & extrusions 0.36 26.4% Basic Metals Basic Goods Molasses 0.11 -41.1% Food Products & Beverages Basic Goods Aluminium Foils 0.11 -66.3% Basic Metals Basic Goods

Boilers 0.40 -20.8% Fabricated Metal Products, Except Machinery & Equipment Capital Goods Plastic Machinery Incl. Moulding Machinery

0.26 -23.3% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. Capital Goods

Heat Exchangers 0.10 -65.3% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. Capital Goods Cable, Rubber Insulated 0.12 -96.2% Electrical Machinery & Apparatus N.E.C. Capital Goods

Petrol (Motor Spirit) 0.56 27.7% Coke, Refined Petroleum Products & Nuclear Fuel Intermediate Goods

Gems & Jewellery 1.77 34.4% Furniture; Manufacturing N.E.C. Consumer Durables Telephone Instruments Including Mobile Phone & Accessories

0.22 30.1% Radio, TV & Communication Equipment & Apparatus Consumer Durables

Scooter & Mopeds 0.21 24.4% Other Transport Equipment Consumer Durables

Leather Garments 0.75 40.1% Wearing Apparel; Dressing & Dyeing of Fur Consumer Non-Durables Aerated Waters & Soft Drinks 0.25 28.2% Food Products & Beverages Consumer Non-Durables Biri 0.51 -40.3% Tobacco Products Consumer Non-Durables Polythene Bags Incl. HDPE & LDPE Bags

0.17 -46.8% Rubber & Plastics Products Consumer Non-Durables

Sugar (including sugar cubes) 1.52 -65.3% Food Products & Beverages Consumer Non-Durables


ANNEXURE C

Source Index of Eight Core Industries, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Office of the Economic Advisor; ICRA research

Growth in Index of Core Industries

Index of Core Industries

Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Refinery Products

Fertilizers Steel Cement Electricity

Weight 37.9% 4.4% 5.2% 1.7% 5.9% 1.2% 6.7% 2.4% 10.3%

Month Feb-15 2.3% 10.8% -1.9% -8.1% -1.0% -0.4% -0.6% 2.2% 5.9% Mar-15 -0.7% 4.5% 1.7% -1.5% -1.5% 5.2% -6.5% -3.7% 2.0% Apr-15 -0.2% 8.1% -2.5% -3.6% -2.9% 0.0% 0.0% -1.4% -0.5%

Feb-16 5.7% 3.9% 0.8% 1.2% 8.1% 16.3% -0.5% 13.5% 9.2% Mar-16 6.4% 1.7% -5.1% -10.5% 10.8% 22.9% 3.4% 11.9% 11.3% Apr-16 8.5% -0.9% -2.3% -6.8% 17.9% 7.8% 6.1% 4.4% 14.7% FY2015 4.5% 8.1% -0.9% -4.9% 0.3% -0.1% 4.7% 5.6% 8.4% FY2016 2.7% 4.6% -1.4% -4.2% 3.8% 11.3% -1.4% 4.7% 5.2%


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