increasing relevance of meteorological informations for various stake holders including growers
DESCRIPTION
Presentation about Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia and its activities, products, etc. during my visit of CCS HAU, Hisar, India (Department of Agrometeorology), February 2013TRANSCRIPT
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Increasing relevance of meteorological informations for various stake holders including growers
Tanja LiksoHead of Department for Climate
MonitoringMeteorological and Hydrological Service
Zagreb, Croatia
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Outlines
Hystorical review Meteorological and hydrological
observations Climate monitoring Weather prediction Agrometeoroloy Climate change and Croatia Strategic goals
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Figure 1. Geographical location of Croatia in Europe.
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Historical review
Beginning of meteorological
observations in 1851 at Dubrovnik
Continuous meteorological observations
at Zagreb-Grič since 1862
The first hydrological station was
established in 1817 at Stara Gradiška
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Hystorical review
Meteorological Service was established in 1947
In 1992 Croatia became a member of WMO
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Meteorological and hydrological observations
Over 500 clasic weather and hydrological stations
Figure 2. Development of meteorological station network in Croatia.
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Meteorological and hydrological observations
Figure 3. Current meteorological observation network.
40 main meteorological stations
114 ordinary meteorological stations
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Meteorological and hydrological observations
Figure 4. Current hydrological observation network.
Several hundred stations
Available data base
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Meteorological and hydrological observations
67 automatic stations
2 upper air radiosounding systems
Figure 5. Current automatic station network.
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Meteorological and hydrological observations
wind speed and wind speed and direction up to 1000 m direction up to 1000 m
1 mobile sodar1 mobile sodarREMOTE SENSING MEASUREMENTS
5 radars
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Meteorological and hydrological observations
USER ORIENTED OBSERVATIONS
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Climate monitoring
Air temperature trend in Croatia is in accordance with the global warming trend which is mainly a consequence of greehouse gasses concentration rise due to fossil fuel burning in energy production, industry, transport, etc.
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Figure 6. Global surface air temperature anomalies.
Climate monitoring
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Figure 7. Annual air temperature anomalies for Zagreb-Grič main meteorological station.
Climate monitoring
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Figure 8. Annual precipitation anomalies for Zagreb-Grič main meteorological station.
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Figure 9. Air temperature anomalies for Croatia in 2012.
Climate monitoring
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Figure 10. Precipitation amounts for Croatia in December 2012.
Climate monitoring
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Climate monitoring
Figure 11. Average annual air temperature for Zagreb-Grič during the period 1862-2012.
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Climate monitoring
The average annual air temperature for the year 2012 is 13.7°C - the second warmest year since the beginning of observatioins, i.e. 1862
Air temperature trend at Zagreb-Grič is in accordance with the global warming trend with a cetrain inter-annual fluctuations
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Weather prediction (NWP) Nowcasting Nowcasting 0-3 0-3 hours hours LAMLAM (LACE, ALADIN) up to (LACE, ALADIN) up to 7272 hours hours
Medium range forecasts Medium range forecasts up to up to 1010 days days
Long-range Ensemble Prediction up to Long-range Ensemble Prediction up to 66 months months
Regional climate modeling Regional climate modeling up to up to 2525 years years
Air pollution models Air pollution models up to up to 7272 hours hours
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Weather prediction (NWP) Nowcasting by means of EUMETSAT satellite images
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ALADIN/HR – ALADIN/HR – OPERATIVE PROGNOSTIC OPERATIVE PROGNOSTIC MODELMODEL
Resolution
8 x 8 km
Forecasting period
00+72 hours
Model run
00 and 12 UTC
Weather prediction (NWP)
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ALADIN/HR - time vertical cross-sectiontime vertical cross-sectionss and and meteogramsmeteograms
Weather prediction (NWP)
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Medium-range forecasts - ECMWF
Weather prediction (NWP)
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Long-range Ensemble weather prediction
Weather prediction (NWP)
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Agrometeorology
Agricultural reports – warnings, desciption of weather conditions and forecasts for different regions in Croatia
It is made on weakly basis and updated twice a week
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Agrometeorology
Agricultural meteorology data for the past 7 days:
Air temperature (°C) – max., min., min at 5 cm
Precipitation: RR (mm), vs (cm) Relative humidity (%) Total sunshine duration (h) Soil temperature – at two depths (5 cm
and 20 cm) in °C - max and min value
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Agrometeorology
Since 1951 – soil temperature has been measured systematically at a number of meteorological stations.
At first, soil temperature was only measured down to a depth of 20 cm during the vegetation period.
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Soil temperature measurements:
2, 5, 10, 20, 30 , 50 and 100 cm depth
Observing times:
07 am, 2 pm and 9 pm CET
Agrometeorology
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Agrometeorology
Figure 12. Extreme temperatures
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Figure 13. Total sunshine duration
Agrometeorology
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Figure 14. Total precipitation amounts
Agrometeorology
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Climate change and Croatia
The Croatian economy has many sectors that are directly influenced by climate and therefore may be affected by climate change
In Croatia temperature are already increasing, in some areas rainfall appears to be decreasing, and there apper to be more extreme weather events – especially droughts and heat waves
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Climate change and Croatia
Climate model suggest if emissions of CFC compounds continue to increase, the period between 2040-2070 will be between 3 and 3.5°C warmer throughout Croatia during the summer
By the end of the century, increase in temperature would be more severe
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Climate change and Croatia
Tourism Most model predict that climate change will create uncommfortably hot summers along the Adriatic coast which may cause many tourist to avoid these destinations. Instead, tourist will visit locations in Northern Europe which will become more attractive with climate change.
However, the spring and autumn seasons are more attractive for tourists at the Croatian
coast.
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Climate change and Croatia
Coastal zone and sea-level rise Global sea level is expected to rise between 9 and 88 cm by 2100 – though large-scale melting of ice in the Antarctic or in Greenland could mean that sea level woud rise much higher
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Climate change and Croatia
According to the approximation, the total amount of land submerged with sea-level rise of 50 cm would be over 100 million square metres.
Hoever, there is a lot of uncertainity about sea-level rise and it will occur slowly, meaning that there will be time to adapt. At the same time, plans for infrastructure and long-term investments should consider possible sea-level rise
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Climate change and Croatia
Figure 15. Sea surface during stormy wind.
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Climate change and Croatia
Health impacts The future health risks of climate change in Croatia are not fully understood because there has not been sufficient research. However, the effects may include:
- higher cardiovascular risk due to heat waves - increases in allergic reaction and increased frequences of heat stroke - increases in vector-borne illneses carried by mosquitoes and other organisms
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Climate change and Croatia
In the summer 2003, it is estimated that 185 additional deaths occured due to the heat wave
While heat related health problems may occur, deaths due to cold weather may decrease during the winter time.
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Climate change and Croatia
Water resources Climate change is expected to result in changes to evaporation, soil humidity, ground water recharge, and the amount of water flowing through the rivers
Agriculture In the future, crop models predict that maize production will likely be affected by climate change – resulting in losses of between 6-16 million EUR in 2050
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Climate change and Croatia
Fishing and mariculture Marine fish populations in the Adriatic are already showing fluctuations and changes in behaviour/migration patterns due to climate
It is expected that climate change will change the growing season and rearing time for farmed fish such as tuna
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Climate change and Croatia
In addition to the migration of existing species of commercial fish, there is the potential for increase of invasive species
Fishing fleets are interested in having available sea surface temperature – it helps them to find fish shoals
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Strategic goals
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE SPLIT
SUB-REGIONAL WIS CENTRE
Vision
To be the WMO Information System (WIS) Centre
on meteorological information relevant for marine safety and the related tasks for the (eastern) Adriatic
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Strategic goals
RADAR AND LIGHTNING NETWORK Radar network on the Adriatic sea Modernization of the old radars National and international radar
network radar composite Lightning detection system integrated
with neighbouring countries
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Strategic goals
IMPROVEMENT OF THE EXISTING ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE
Climate Monitoring and Prediction proactive role in global climate change
and research adaptation and mitigation Air Quality Monitoring Public Relation and Relation with the
Users
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Strategic goals
Strenghtening of the units responsible for warnings
Outsourcing of the hail suppression activities to local authorities
New law on the meteorological and hydrological activities (the role and duties of the Meteorological and Hydrological Service)
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Strategic goals
NEW NEW HEADQUARTER BUILDINGHEADQUARTER BUILDING
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