increase in violence: fragmented militancy getting … · 2015-08-12 · security forces have...

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Monthly Security Assessment Report – June 2015 1

CMC/PICSS, Islamabad Copyright @ 2015. All Rights Reserved.

List of Acronyms

AJK Azad Jammu & Kashmir

Arst Arrested by Security Forces

C Civilian

CBA Cross Border Attack

FATA Federally Administrated Tribal Areas

GB Gilgit-Baltistan

GrA Grenade Attack

IED Improvised Explosive Device or Handmade bombs

ICT Islamabad Capital Territory

KP, KPK Khyber Pakhtonkhwa

K Kidnapping

KK Kidnapping and Killing

Kdnp Kidnappings by militants

M Militant

MA Militant Assault

MAs Militant Attacks

MC Militant Clash

MrS Mortar Shelling

Nos Number of incidents

PGR, RZ Razakar (Pro government tribal militias)

RA Rocket Attack

SFAs Security Forces Actions

SFP Security Forces Personnel

SA Suicide Attack

TK Targeted Killing



Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 4

Overall Violence ................................................................................................................................................ 6

Militant Activities .............................................................................................................................................. 7

Security Forces Actions ..................................................................................................................................... 9

Significant development of the Month ............................................................................................................ 11

Accusations aimed at India – Indian Leadership Acknowledges ................................................................ 11

Black money being used to fund terrorism in Karachi: Rangers ................................................................. 13

One year of Operation Zarb-e-Azb .............................................................................................................. 14

BBC Report of Indian Funding of MQM .................................................................................................... 16

Amnesty in Balochistan – Is there any silver lining? .................................................................................. 17

Security Situation in Baluchistan ..................................................................................................................... 18

Security Situation in FATA ............................................................................................................................. 19

Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtoonkha (KP) ............................................................................................. 21

Security Situation in Sindh .............................................................................................................................. 22

Security situation in AJ&K, GB, ICT, and Punjab .......................................................................................... 23

Key Points: ....................................................................................................................................................... 23

Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................... 24



List of Tables

Table 1: Category-Wise Break–Up of SFAs and MAs (June 2015) .................................................................. 6

Table 2: Province-Wise detail of SFAs and MAs (June 2015) ............................................................................. 7

Table 3: Province wise detail of Militant Activities (June 2015) ........................................................................ 9

Table 4: Nature/ Type of Militant Attacks (June 2015) ..................................................................................... 9

Table 5: Province-wise breakup of security forces actions (June 2015) .......................................................... 11

Table 6: District wise detail of militant activities in Baluchistan (June 2015) ................................................. 18

Table 7: Type of Militant Attacks in Baluchistan (June 2015) .......................................................................... 19

Table 8: Agency wise break up of Militant Activities – FATA (June 2015) ................................................... 20

Table 9: Type of Militant Attacks in FATA (June 2015) ................................................................................ 20

Table 10: District wise spread of Militant Attacks in KP (June 2015) ............................................................ 21

Table 11: Type of Militant Attacks in KP (June 2015) ................................................................................... 22

Table 14: District-Wise Breakup of MAs in Sindh (June 2015) ........................................................................ 22

Table 15: Types of MAs in Sindh (June 2015) .................................................................................................. 23

List of Figures

Figure 1: Geographical Spread of SFAs and MAs (June 2015) ........................................................................... 6

Figure 2: Geographical distribution of MAs & their impact (June 2015) ........................................................... 8

Figure 3: Type of Attacks– Impact (June 2015) .................................................................................................. 9

Figure 4: Month Wise Comparison of Militant Activities in Baluchistan ......................................................... 19

Figure 5: Month-wise comparison of MAs in FATA ...................................................................................... 20

Figure 6: Monthly Comparison of Militant Activities in KP ........................................................................... 21

Figure 8: Month-wise comparison of MAs in Sindh ......................................................................................... 22



Executive Summary

June witnessed decrease in overall violent incidents (anti state violence by militants and

counter-insurgency operations by the state) though number of deaths have gone up as compared

to previous month. In 143 overall violent incidents, at least 406 people were killed while 113 others

injured. The month has witnessed downward trend in civilian deaths and injuries while an upward

trend in security forces’ deaths/ injuries.

After seeing an increase in militant activities in the previous month, June witnessed a decline

in violent militant activities as well as resulted deaths/ injuries. In 57 militant activities, 116 people

were killed while 64 people were injured. Despite reduction in militant activities due to strong

armed tactics by the state in the form of military operations in FATA, there are fears that militants

have spread out to urban areas to establish their sleeper cells to resume their activities when

situation becomes favourable to them. Continuously evolution security situation in Afghanistan will

have profound effects on militancy in Pakistan.

In 86 security forces actions across the country in June, 290 people were killed while 49

others were injured. 459 suspects were arrested across the country. Continuing with previous

trend, security forces conducted most of the actions in Balochistan while majority of deaths resulted

from forces operations conducted in FATA. Forces also hunted down various suspects in Karachi

during the month. Reportedly, security forces have concluded operation Khyber-II in Khyber Agency

while securing most part of the agency. Military had gained control of strategically important areas

and had also taken physical control of the three passes from Afghanistan into Tirah which will

definitely restrict militants’ movement into Afghanistan and back. Security forces also suffered

some losses in this phase. Military has also completed initial phase of its operation in Shawal valley

while seizing some important peaks but still lot of work is required to completely clear the valley.

Security forces have already completed one year of operation Zarb-e-Azb and security

situation in the country has improved tremendously since start of operation.

Indian involvement in anti-Pakistan activities have become more pronounced. The

statement of Indian PM during his visit to Bangladesh that India played an active part in

dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971 only confirmed Pakistan’s accusations. The statement of Indian

junior minister that India will use the option of surgical strikes against Pakistan once again raised

the temperature between the two countries. India has also shown its reservations against Pakistan-

China Economic Corridor though Pakistan out-rightly rejected Indian objection. Unresolved Kashmir



issue, especially when politico-diplomatic relations between the two countries are at the lowest

ebb, continues to remain a point of concern and any misadventure by any of the two states could

bring the two states to a war with sword of nuclear option always hanging.

The accusations of Pakistan Rangers Sindh mostly against MQM as well as sitting PPP

government and its leadership has raised the political temperature in the country particularly after

an outburst from PPP co-chairperson and former President Asif Ali Zardari. Rangers had claimed

that more than Rs230 billion being generated annually in Karachi through extortion, smuggling of

Iranian diesel, water supply and land-grabbing, etc and that part of this huge amount is being used

for terror funding. By cancelling his scheduled meeting with Mr Zardari, PM Nawaz Sharif put his

weight behind Rangers and military establishment is hell bent to disturb finances of militants

regardless of latter’s political affiliation.

A rare clash between insurgents in Balochistan has been witnessed, which is considered to

be positive development in terms of fighting insurgency in the province. Moreover, political

leadership has also made an effort to reach out to Khan of Kalat to initiate dialogue with hardliners.



Overall Violence

June witnessed decrease in overall violent incidents (anti state violence by militants and

counter-insurgency operations by the state) though number of deaths have gone up as compared

to previous month. In 143 overall violent incidents, at least 406 people were killed including 343

militants, 38 SFPs and 25 civilians while 113 others injured including 50 militants, 43 SFPs and 20

civilians. The month has witnessed downward trend in civilian deaths and injuries while an upward

trend in security forces’ deaths/ injuries. Geographically, Balochistan continues to be the area with

highest number of militant activities while FATA kept its record of being top in terms of deaths.

Breakup of overall violence is given in Table-1, detailed break-up of violence in Table-2 and

geographical spread/ impact of violence is given in Figure-1.

Table 1: Category-Wise Break–Up of SFAs and MAs (June 2015)

Category Nos Killed Injured

Arst Kdnp SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

SFAs 86 1 0 287 2 290 8 0 41 0 49 459 0

MAs 57 37 0 56 23 116 35 0 9 20 64 6 2

Total 143 38 0 343 25 406 43 0 50 20 113 465 2

Figure 1: Geographical Spread of SFAs and MAs (June 2015)



Table 2: Province-Wise detail of SFAs and MAs (June 2015)

Region Nos Killed Injured


Baluchistan 54 12 0 80 13 105 14 0 4 2 20 389 2

FATA 31 17 0 209 7 233 18 0 44 8 70 8 0

ICT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

KPK 24 6 0 5 1 12 7 0 0 4 11 14 0

Punjab 6 0 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 6 6 11 0

Sindh 26 3 0 43 4 50 4 0 2 0 6 42 0

Total 143 38 0 343 25 406 43 0 50 20 113 465 2

Militant Activities

After seeing an increase in militant activities in May, the month of June witnessed a decrease

in violent militant activities as well as resulted deaths/ injuries. In 57 militant activities during the

month of June, 116 people were killed including 56 militants themselves in addition to 37 SFPs and

23 civilians while 64 people were injured including 35 SFPs, 20 civilians and nine militants. Six

suspected militants were arrested when militants went to attack while two people were kidnapped

by the militants. Although Balochistan continued to top the list with highest number of militant

activities but the number suggest that the province has actually witnessed a decrease in militant

activities as compared to previous month. On the other hand, militant activities in FATA has

witnessed an upward trend. Detailed break up of militant activities across geographical regions is

given in Table-3, type of attacks in Table-4, geographical impact of militant activities in Figure-2 and

impact with reference to attack type is given in Figure-3.

Despite variation in number of incidents/ deaths, the fact remains that overall security

situation in the country has improved since start of military operation Zarb-e-Azb in North

Waziristan, operations Khyber-I and Khyber-II in Khyber Agency and measures adopted under

National Action Plan post-Peshawar School attacks suggesting that strong armed tactics by the state

have put militants on the defensive in addition to inflicting heavy men and material losses to them

while they have been mainly dislodged from their strongholds of North Waziristan and Khyber

Agency. However, it is naïve to believe that militants’ capabilities have completely diminished.

There are valid apprehensions that militants would have shifted to safer placers and would have

established their sleeper cells in urban areas to avoid any immediate backlash from the security

forces who are also quite active in intelligence based operations across the country. Now, it will be

a testing time for intelligence to bust these sleeping cells otherwise militants would definitely find

space to operate sometime in future.



In addition to internal dynamics, the situation across the border in Afghanistan will also have

its impact on rise and fall of militants/ militant activities here in Pakistan. Situation in Afghanistan

is changing rapidly. On one hand, Afghan Taliban are busy in intense fighting with Afghan security

forces under their so-called spring offensive “Azm” and making notable gains in the North while, on

the other, Afghan Taliban have been busy in fighting the emerging Islamic State militants whom

they believe to be a direct threat particularly on ideological lines.

Another notable development during the past years had been widening distance between

Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda as the former perceived no benefit in remaining attached to them

despite latter’s persistent effort to drive the Afghan Taliban out of their nationalistic shell and push

them for pan-Islamic cause which Afghan Taliban refused to accept. But lately, some tweets of

Afghan Taliban leaders suggested a change of heart and a liking for Al-Qaeda is being shown which,

in fact, is due to emergence of Islamic State in Afghanistan.

Such developments across the border would have direct bearing on security situation in

Pakistan as sympathizers of Islamic State are constantly increasing in Pakistan while Al-Qaeda is

already in hand-and-gloves with various militant outfits including TTP, LeJ, etc. Notwithstanding

developments in Afghanistan on this front, the nature of turf war between Al-Qaeda and IS in

Pakistan will also depend on how state responds to emerging threat. However, presently, militants

have shown some spine with rise in attacks on security forces particularly in FATA, Balochistan and

Karachi (Sindh).

Figure 2: Geographical distribution of MAs & their impact (June 2015)



Table 3: Province wise detail of Militant Activities (June 2015)


Arst Kdnp SFP PGR M C Tot SFP PGR M C Total

Balochistan 21 11 0 20 13 44 9 0 0 2 11 5 2

FATA 16 17 0 23 7 47 18 0 7 8 33 1 0

ICT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

KPK 12 6 0 3 1 10 6 0 0 4 10 0 0

Punjab 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 6 6 0 0

Sindh 6 3 0 8 2 13 2 0 2 0 4 0 0

Total 57 37 0 56 23 116 35 0 9 20 64 6 2

Figure 3: Type of Attacks– Impact (June 2015)

Table 4: Nature/ Type of Militant Attacks (June 2015)

Type Nos Killed Injured


IED 22 6 0 4 5 15 18 0 2 10 30 0 0

K 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

KK 5 0 0 1 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MA 12 18 0 10 2 30 8 0 0 2 10 0 0

MC 1 0 0 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

RA 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0

SA 3 9 0 21 0 30 7 0 7 8 22 1 0

TK 10 4 0 0 10 14 0 0 0 0 0 5 0

Total 57 37 0 56 23 116 35 0 9 20 64 6 2

Security Forces Actions

June also witnessed almost the same number of security forces actions as were reported

during May. In 86 security forces actions across the country, 290 people were killed including 287



suspected militants, two civilians and one SFP while 49 others were injured including 41 suspected

militants and eight SFPs. 459 suspects were arrested across the country. Continuing with previous

trend, security forces conducted most of the actions in Balochistan while majority of deaths resulted

from forces operations conducted in FATA. Forces also hunted down various suspects in Karachi

during the month. Detailed break up of security forces actions is given in Table-5.

Reportedly, security forces have concluded operation Khyber-II in Khyber Agency while

securing most part of the agency. Military had gained control of strategically important areas and

had also taken physical control of the three passes from Afghanistan into Tirah including Mzatal,

Kandao Gharibi and Dramudrad. Among these, two of the passes have been physically taken over

by the military, while the third is under direct fire power, thus putting an end to any movement

through that pass. Thus TTP and Lashker-e-Islam have been deprived of their basis in Khyber Agency

where militants’ movement into Afghanistan and back have been put to an end through these

passes. During this phase of operation, security forces also suffered losses – more than 100 men

including officers while same number of security forces personnel were wounded.

Military has already indicated that the area cleared of the militants has been heavily mined

using foreign made devices, which will take some time to be completely cleared. Once the area is

completely cleared of landmines, the next phase of rehabilitation of the temporarily displaced

persons will start. Although military will continue to hold the area for some time but it cannot hold

the area for the very long time. Eventually, the area is to be handed over to the political

administration and unfortunately no efficient political institutions exist in whole of the tribal areas

to take control. Development of such institutions at the fast pace would be a real test of the Federal

government who is handling FATA through its nominated political agents.

On the other hand, military is busy in its operation in North Waziristan where area close to

Pakistan-Afghanistan border in Shawal valley is being targeted where local and foreign militants

have built their basis. Army Chief General Sharif visited forward areas of North Waziristan where

forces recently completed the preliminary phase of Shawal operation by seizing peaks around the

strategic valley. In various statements, Army chief has categorically flagged the importance of

intelligence based operations across the country suggesting that military is quite aware of the

militants spreading out in the urban areas for establishing their sleeper cells. Still a long way to go

to bring security situation in the country under the control especially when Islamic State is also

making ground and trying to increase its presence in the area while sympathizers of the outfit



already exist in great number in the country. This also include highly qualified/ educated youth and

people belonging to well-off families which we have seen in the form of Safoora incident.

Table 5: Province-wise breakup of security forces actions (June 2015)


Arst SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

Baluchistan 33 1 0 60 0 61 5 0 4 0 9 384

FATA 15 0 0 186 0 186 0 0 37 0 37 7

ICT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

KPK 12 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 14

Punjab 5 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 11

Sindh 20 0 0 35 2 37 2 0 0 0 2 42

Total 86 1 0 287 2 290 8 0 41 0 49 459

Significant development of the Month

Accusations aimed at India – Indian Leadership Acknowledges

During his address to the Parliament on 4 June at the start of new parliamentary year,

President Mamnoon Hussain called for a constant national vigilance against what he called a threat

to use terrorism as a weapon against Pakistan, in remarks aimed at India. President Hussain’s was

the highest level comment on the issue from Pakistan that he made after praising a consensus

reached at a recent conference of political parties chaired by the PM on the route of what is known

as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). President said, “Despite this historic consensus, it is

my advice to the nation, government and political leadership that they remain constantly vigilant,”

the president said. “After the threat to use terrorism as a weapon against Pakistan, it has become

all the more necessary that is no cause for any confusion.” On relations with India, he said, “Friendly

relations with India based on mutual confidence and cooperation is our priority,” he said, but

added: “We want India to honour its promise to settle the Kashmir problem in accordance with the

(relevant) United Nations resolution and aspirations of the Kashmiri people so that a solid

foundation is laid for peace in the region.” He added, “Pakistan thinks a solution to all problems

between the two countries can be found through talks,” he said. “For a lasting peace in South Asia,

it is essential to carry the dialogue process forward with sincerity and both countries solve all

contentious matters including water through dialogue and pave the way for peace and prosperity

in the region.” He also briefly talked of a “new era” in Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan,

“exemplary” relations with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and other Islamic countries, the alliance with

the United States in the war against terrorism, “multifaceted relations” with European countries,



“new worlds of foreign relations” discovered in countries like Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan,

Tajikistan and Belarus, and called for giving attention also to Africa, Latin America and the Far East.

Talking of internal affairs, he counselled the government to initiate a dialogue with disaffected

people, who he said had a tendency to make plans important for development and national

solidarity controversial for self-interest. He said, “This trend should come to an end,” he said, and

added that “national leadership” should take the initiative to bring these elements into the national

mainstream. About the continuing Zarb-i-Azb Operation against militants in FATA, he said it would

“continue until the elimination of the last terrorist”.i

During his visit to Bangladesh, Indian Prime Minister Narindra Modi has finally accepted

Indian role in dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971 which culminated at creation of Bangladesh.

Pakistan’s foreign office spokesperson Qazi M Khalilullah had said in statement “Indian politicians

not only indulge in actions that are in violation of the United Nations’ Charter, but also take pride

in recalling their interference in the internal affairs of other states.” It was an open secret that Indian

intelligence agencies created, sponsored and facilitated “Mukti Bahini” in the then East Pakistan

(now Bangladesh) while exploiting ethnic divide and political differences between East and West

Pakistan. The assertion of the Indian Prime Minister of Indian role in so-called Bangladesh liberation

war is not a new revelation but only an acknowledgement.

When latest Indian involvement in fomenting terrorism in Pakistan is put into equation, it

becomes evident that India and its intelligence agencies are following the same pattern. However,

this time Indian policy is aimed at exploiting existing sectarian, religious, ethnic and political divide

across Pakistan. Researchers have identified four main categories of militancy in Pakistan including

politico-religious (TTP/Al-Qaida), sectarian (LeJ), ethnic (BLA, BRA), and criminals (Karachi-based).

Indian involvement has been identified in almost all four categories while tactical cooperation, soft

corner for each other and operational linkages exist among all the given categories of militants.

On the other hand, India has demonstrated in the recent past a jingoistic mind-set. Following

claimed cross-border attack conducted by the Indian Army in Myanmar, Junior Minister for

Information and Broadcasting Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore said that based on intelligence "we will

carry out surgical strikes at the place and time of our own choosing" adding that "Western

disturbances will also be equally dealt with” suggesting that India wants to execute similar policy

on its border with nuclear Pakistan. Earlier border skirmishes on Line of Control and working

boundary at the time when Pakistani armed forces were internally engaged in war against militants



suggested that India wanted to engage Pakistan into two-front war scenario restricting its options

and diverting its attention. Now with the known Indian involvement in anti-Pakistan activities inside

Pakistan, the assertion of surgical strikes is meant to achieve the same earlier Indian objective. With

the known Indian objection to China Pakistan Economic Corridor, it seems that India is trying to

project an unstable security situation in the region that could thwart development of CPEC.

The Statement of Pakistan Army Chief Gen Sharif could be read in this context when he said

that the entire world endorses Pakistan's security concerns and added that ceasefire violations,

bloodshed in Balochistan, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Karachi manifest the

enemy's hostile intent. The army chief added that Pakistan has been willing to cooperate with other

nations for peace but not at the cost of national interest, sovereign rights and national pride. He

said, "We are ready to pay any price to protect our nationhood and safeguard Pakistan's interests,

be it Kashmir, development of new ports or exploitation of natural resources." He further said that

the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with the Gwadar Port as its catalyst, will be built and

developed as one of the most strategic deep sea ports in the region at any cost and that the armed

forces are acutely aware of enemy campaigns and will defeat designs against it.ii

Black money being used to fund terrorism in Karachi: Rangers

Pakistan Rangers Sindh, on 12 June claimed to have estimated more than Rs230 billion

being generated annually from Karachiites through extortion, smuggling of Iranian diesel, water

supply and land-grabbing, mainly patronised by “a major political party”, and that part of that huge

amount was also being used for “terror-funding”, gang warfare in Lyari and criminal activities across

the city. This was reportedly briefed by DG Rangers to Sindh Apex Committee’s meeting on 4 June

chaired by the Chief Minister Sindh. The Apex Committee set up a three-member committee to

investigate further and recommend measures. “According to an estimate more than Rs230 billion

is being generated annually through different illegal means that is not only a source of loss to the

exchequer but it has also agonised the citizens,” said the statement after detailing types of illegal

business activities being operated by the mafia, political groups and influential personalities of

Sindh. The Rangers DG briefing to the apex committee also referred to the “millions of rupees”

collected in the name of Zakat and Fitra forcibly every year. He also pointed to the money generated

through the collection of hides of sacrificial animals every year by different political and religious

parties, which used to operate their “militant wings” and had become a key source of “terrorist

activities”. Extortion from small markets, vendors, roadside stall operators, weekly bazaars,

canteens and even graveyards and schools also generated millions of rupees for the criminals,



according to the paramilitary force’s findings. The huge crime racket was jointly operated by the

political parties, city district government, district administration, construction companies, estate

agents and police officials. “They all work in connivance in an organised way and most of them are

patronised by a major political party of Karachi. However, other political leaders and builders are

also involved in this heinous business,” said the Rangers DG to the apex committee.iii

Public statement from Rangers Chief especially when the issues were discussed at Apex

Committee level headed by the Chief Minister Sindh caused criticism from political parties

especially by MQM and ruling PPP. However, the statement amply highlights the mess in the

metropolitan that warrants concerted efforts of not only the armed forces but also of political and

civil administration to resolve the issue at administrative, legal, political and economic levels. The

statement also makes it loud and clear that army does not seem to abandon Karachi operation

under any compulsion and with any political expediency.

Pakistan People Party (PPP) Co-chairperson and former president Asif Zardar’s outburst

against Pakistan Army created a storm and there were all signs that civil-military relations will be

strained. However, ruling PML (N) by cancelling a scheduled meeting between PM Nawaz Sharif and

Asif Zardari on the very next day of Zardari’s utterances send a strong message in favour of Army.

Mr Zardari hosted an iftar dinner for opposition parties in Islamabad who also reportedly suggested

Zardari to exercise restraint. Despite reservation of majority of the political parties into meddling

of Army in political affairs, majority believe that issuing statement against army at this point in time

could be counter-productive when military is busy in operations in FATA and intelligence based

operations across the country.

It is yet to be seen how provincial government in Sindh will deal with the situation as Rangers

seems to be quite assertive in its latest actions and moves. Irrespective of the outcome, the latest

rift is likely to negatively affect the ongoing Karachi operation. Without cutting the financial lifeline

of militancy, there could be hardly any success in eradicating militancy be it religious-political,

sectarian, criminal or political backed violence in the metropolitan. A nexus between political

figures, criminals and militants need to be broken once for all for lasting peace in the financial

capital. Federal government and Pakistan Army seems to be hell bent to do that.

One year of Operation Zarb-e-Azb

On 12 June, DG ISPR Maj Gen Asim Bajwa on the eve of completing one year of Operation

Zarb-e-Azb said that so far 2,763 suspected terrorists have been killed in the North Waziristan



operation. It added that 837 hideouts have been destroyed and 253 tons of explosives have been

recovered. He further said that militant strongholds, communications infrastructure and

sanctuaries were cleared on a large scale in FATA including North Waziristan and Khyber agencies.

He further said that thousands of suspected terrorists and their abettors had been apprehended

whereas ‘218 hardcore terrorists’ were killed in around 9,000 intelligence-based-operations (IBOs).

Maj Gen Bajwa added that 347 military personnel had also lost their lives during the operation. He

said that during search operation in North Waziristan, 18,087 weapons including heavy machine

guns (HMGs), light machine guns (LMGs), sniper rifles, rocket launchers and AK-47 rifles had been

recovered during the past one year.iv

Impact of Operation Zarb-e-Azb is visible from the fact that militant attacks in the country

dropped to six years low after one year of operation Zarb-e-Azb. Before start of Zarb-e-Azb, average

militant attacks gone up to historic high of 154 attacks per month which has now dropped to more

than 50 percent to 71 attacks per month. Average militant attacks after one year of Zarb-e-Azb is

lowest since 2008. It is worth mentioning that militant attacks escalated in Pakistan after Lal Masjid

Operation in July 2007 and then situation further worsened after formation of Tehreek-e-Taliban.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb not only improved overall security situation in the country but it also caused

serious dents to the unity of TTP. TTP splinted into at least three major factions. Punjabi Taliban led

by Asmatullah Muawia, Mehsud militants led by Khan Saeed Sajna separated their ways from the

major group at the start of the operation. Later, more than 70 key commanders of TTP defected to

form Jamat-ul-Ahrar. Some key commanders further defected from Jamat-ul-Ahrar and joined

Islamic State. Operation Zarb-e-Azb forced senior leadership of the militants to flee and thus cut off

effective communication between top leadership with middle and low level field commanders.

During one year of Zarb-e-Azb, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa benefitted although the ruling Pakistan

Tehreek-e-Insaf was, at that time, not in favor of the military operation. Before Zarb-e-Azb average

militant attacks per month in the province was 49 which saw 75 percent decline to 12 attacks per

month during 2015. Before Zarb-e-Azb, highest number of militant attacks was being recorded from

KPK. In FATA average militant attacks before Zarb-e-Azb were 31 which have now dropped to 16

attacks per month. During last one year, Pakistani military carried out Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North

Waziristan and Operation Khyber 1 and Khyber 2 in Khyber Agency and cleared most of the area

from militants in both agencies of FATA. After these operations very few small pockets are left under

militant control and military expects to clear them soon.



To support Zarb-e-Azb and control blow back in major cities, security forces had launched

Intelligence Based Operations (IBOs) across the country. These operations helped in limiting the

blow back though militants managed to carry out some high profile attacks in Peshawar, Karachi,

Lahore, Rawalpindi and Shikarpur. Almost all high profile attacks targeted innocent civilians as

militants failed to target military. Recently an upsurge in target killing of police officer has been

observed in Karachi but it is not clear so far whether the attacks are planned and executed by TTP-

Al-Qaeda linked militants or armed wing of political parties are responsible.

Karachi has also seen remarkable reduction in anti-state violence (apart from violence

perpetrated by militant wings of political parties) emanating from groups like TTP, Al-Qaeda and

their local affiliates. Prior to Zarb-e-Azb the average was 25 attacks per month which has dropped

to 9 after 64 percent decline. Security Forces have gunned down some key commanders of Al-Qaeda

in South Asia, TTP and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi recently in the city. Punjab witness a decline in overall

number of militant attacks but the province seen major target of high profile attacks as militants

carried out Wahga Border, Two Churches in Lahore and Imam Bargahs in Rawalpindi besides

targeted killing of some prominent leaders of a Sunni Sectarian group.

BBC Report of Indian Funding of MQM

The sinking ship of MQM has got another jolt when BBC published a report of MQM

receiving funds from India. The BBC report, while quoting an unnamed "authoritative Pakistani

source", reported that officials in MQM have told UK authorities that they received Indian

government funds. The report further stated that UK authorities investigating MQM for alleged

money laundering also found a list of weapons in an MQM property. MQM is constantly under

pressure not only in Pakistan but also in London. Although party is out rightly rejecting the

allegations saying that it is part of international media campaign against the party. However,

independent observer and sane voices in Pakistan believe that MQM, as a sizable political force

particularly in Karachi, needs to come clean. However, presently there are very bleak chances that

MQM leadership in London will be able to get its name cleared. Recently, a team of Scotland Yard

visited Pakistan in connection with murder of Dr Imran Farooq and the team was reportedly given

access to those arrested in Pakistan in connection with the murder of said MQM leader in London.

Apparently, there seems to be tacit understanding between Pakistan and UK to help each other in

logically concluding the cases being investigated respectively in UK and Pakistan. This is despite the

fact that no Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty exists between the two countries. Since no Extradition

Treaty exists between the two countries, which can allow extradition of accused in such cases, both



the countries can find ways and means to extend cooperation in this regard to each other.

Alternatively, both the countries might consider signing such treaties at the earliest to sail through

legal formalities.

The recent arrests of some of the MQM workers in connection with collection of Fitrana (a

religious donation made by every fasting Muslim to help lower strata of society to celebrate Eid in

respectable manner) under the banner of MQM’s charity organization suggest that government/

military establishment is not going to allow any space to MQM to continue collecting money under

any pretext.

Amnesty in Balochistan – Is there any silver lining?

On 25 June 2015, Balochistan Apex Committee has announced amnesty for youth giving up

armed rebellion. The decision to this effect was made during the apex committee meeting chaired

by Balochistan Chief Minister Dr Abdul Malik Baloch. Commander Southern Command, Home

Minister Balochistan, Inspector General Frontier Corps (FC), Home Secretary and other high ups

attended the meeting. It was also decided that Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), Customs,

National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and police would probe into funding and resources being

used for terrorist activities in the province. The meeting decided to provide financial assistance to

militant youths abandoning violent acts against the state. Reportedly, from Rs 0.5 to 1.5 million is

to be given for rehabilitation of those who will lay down their arms.

Although the given amnesty is likely to help some of the insurgents to lay down their arms

but it will have little effect on those who have their genuine grievances. Moreover, foreign hand

involved in Balochistan unrest will always try to scuttle such government efforts through

introducing their own plans and moves to keep the province bleeding. With the view to deny

external forces space to exploit, the government will have to make efforts, through political means,

for bridging those internal gaps that exists at societal level as neither merely pumping money would

suffice nor it is a permanent solution of integrating those who took arms. The initiative to hold talks

with the Khan of Kalat in London is reportedly in offing and could be right step towards right

direction for reaching out to hardline separatist leaders.



Security Situation in Baluchistan

Low-level insurgency in Balochistan continues unabated despite efforts of the law

enforcement agencies to quell the insurgency through military means. As compared to May, the

month of June witnessed some reduction in militant activities. In 21 militant activities, 44 people

were killed including 20 insurgents, 11 SFPs and 13 civilians while 11 others were injured including

nine SFPs and two civilians. Detailed break up of district wise violence in the province is given in

Table-6, monthly Comparison of militant activities in Figure-4 and type of attacks in Table-7.

An important development that has the potential to hugely impact low-level insurgency in

Balochistan is reported clash, on 30 June, between two insurgent groups Balochistan Liberation

Army and the United Baloch Army near the border of Kohlu and Dera Bugti districts in which at least

20 militants were killed and dozen others injured when both the groups used heavy weapons. On

same day, security forces gunned downed at least 13 militants belonging to another insurgent group

Balochistan Liberation Front. Among the killed were nephew and brother of Dr Allah Nazar who

heads the outfit. The rift between BLA and UBA could be positive development as previously the

insurgent groups have always shown utmost restraint in fighting against each other despite having

major differences.

Table 6: District wise detail of militant activities in Baluchistan (June 2015)

District Nos Killed Injured


Awaran 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Dera Bugti 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 0

Gwadar 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

Jafarabad 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 3 0 0

Kalat 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kech 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 5 0 0

Khuzdar 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kohlu 2 0 0 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mastung 2 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nasirabad 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pishin 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Quetta 5 9 0 0 7 16 0 0 0 0 0 5 0

Total 21 11 0 20 13 44 9 0 0 2 11 5 2



Figure 4: Month Wise Comparison of Militant Activities in Baluchistan

Table 7: Type of Militant Attacks in Baluchistan (June 2015)



IED 5 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 2 8 0 0

K 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

KK 3 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MA 5 11 0 0 0 11 3 0 0 0 3 0 0

MC 1 0 0 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

RA 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TK 4 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 5 0

Total 21 11 0 20 13 44 9 0 0 2 11 5 2

Security Situation in FATA

June witnessed almost the same number of militant activities in FATA as were reported in

last month with almost same number of deaths. In June 16 militant activities were reported in which

47 people were killed including 23 militants, 17 SFPs and seven civilians while 33 others were injured

including 18 SFPs, seven militants and eight civilians. The figures of deaths and injuries clearly

suggest that although militants were at the receiving end but they were able to inflict losses to

security forces. Highest number of deaths and injuries were reported from South Waziristan which

again suggest that militants in Shawal, facing the military operation, have spread out to other areas

including South Waziristan. A suicide attack was observed in Ladha area of South Waziristan in

which seven security personnel were killed and three others injured. In the retaliatory attack, at

least 19 militants, including five of their ‘commanders’, were killed. Seven militants were injured



and one was captured. Self-explanatory monthly comparison of militant activities is given in Figure-

5, detailed agency wise break up of militant activities in Table-8 and break up of type of attacks is

given in Table-9.

Figure 5: Month-wise comparison of MAs in FATA

Table 8: Agency wise break up of Militant Activities – FATA (June 2015)

Agency Nos Killed Injured

Kdnp SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

Bajur 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 5 7 0 Khyber 3 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 3 3 0

Kurram 1 2 0 4 0 6 2 0 0 0 2 0 Mohmand 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 South Waziristan 7 9 0 19 5 33 8 0 7 0 15 1 North Waziristan 2 2 0 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 6 0

Total 16 17 0 23 7 47 18 0 7 8 33 1

Table 9: Type of Militant Attacks in FATA (June 2015)



IED 9 6 0 4 5 15 10 0 0 8 18 0 0

KK 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MA 3 3 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 0

RA 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0

SA 1 7 0 19 0 26 3 0 7 0 10 1 0

TK 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 16 17 0 23 7 47 18 0 7 8 33 1 0



Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtoonkha (KP)

After witnessing an increase in violent militant activities in the province during previous

month, a decline in violence is observed in KP. In 12 militant activities across the province, 10 people

were killed including six SFPs, three militants and one civilian while 10 others were injured including

six SFPs and four civilians. Self-explanatory monthly comparison of militant activities in KP is given

in Figure-6, militancy affected districts in Table-10 and type of Attacks in Table-11. Militant

activities, in addition to Peshawar and its surrounding areas, continue to be witnessed from

Southern areas which suggest militant efforts to spread to adjoining settled areas due to strong

armed tactics applied by the forces in North Waziristan’s Shawal Valley. A suicide blast targeting

the vehicle of Deputy Commandant of Frontier Reserve Police (FRP) took place in Peshawar's

Hayatabad area. The suicide bomber was riding a motorcycle when the blast took place. TTP

spokesman Mohammad Khurasani said a special group of his terrorist organization had carried out

the attack.

Table 10: District wise spread of Militant Attacks in KP (June 2015)



Bannu 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charsadda 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

DI Khan 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 2 0

FR Bannu 1 1 0 3 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lakki Marwat 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Peshawar 5 4 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 4 8 0

Tank 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 12 6 0 3 1 10 6 0 0 4 10 0

Figure 6: Monthly Comparison of Militant Activities in KP



Table 11: Type of Militant Attacks in KP (June 2015)

Type Nos Killed Injured Kdnp

SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

IED 6 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0

TK 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

MA 2 2 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 2 2 0

SA 1 2 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 2 6 0

TK 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 12 6 0 3 1 10 6 0 0 4 10 0

Security Situation in Sindh

Security situation in Sindh (mostly Karachi) improved significantly during the month of June

as only six militant activities were reported and that too spread out with incidents noticed in other

parts of the province. Sindh Rangers’ efforts not to collect donations and fitrana in the metropolitan

means that militants will be deprived from a large chuck of their finances. Monthly comparison of

militant activities in Sindh is given in Figure-7, affected districts in Table-14 and type of attacks in

Table-15.

Figure 7: Month-wise comparison of MAs in Sindh

Table 12: District-Wise Breakup of MAs in Sindh (June 2015)



Jacobabad 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0

Karachi 3 1 0 2 0 3 1 0 0 0 1 0

Shikarpur 1 2 0 6 2 10 1 0 0 0 1 0

Sukkar 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 6 3 0 8 2 13 2 0 2 0 4 0



Table 13: Types of MAs in Sindh (June 2015)



IED 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0

KK 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

MA 2 2 0 7 2 11 2 0 0 0 2 0

TK 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 6 3 0 8 2 13 2 0 2 0 4 0

Security situation in AJ&K, GB, ICT, and Punjab

Security situation in AJ&K, Islamabad Capital Territory, and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) remained

stable while situation in Punjab has remained under control with only a failed suicide bombing

incident when two young suspected suicide attackers were killed in an explosion in Sargodha. The

incident occurred when a rift between the two emerged resulting in one of them to explode his

suicide vest killing both of them while injuring six pedestrians.

Key Points:

June witnessed decrease in overall violent incidents though number of deaths have

witnessed an increase. The month has witnessed downward trend in civilian deaths

and injuries while an upward trend in security forces’ deaths/ injuries.

June also witnessed decrease in militant activities but this decrease could not be long

lasting given the fact that militants have established their sleeper cells in urban

areas.

Continuously evolution security situation in Afghanistan will have profound effects

on militancy in Pakistan.

Security forces have almost concluded their operation in Khyber Agency while

preliminary phase of operation in Shawal has also been completed with forces taking

control of strategically important peaks. Security forces have already completed one

year of operation Zarb-e-Azb and security situation in the country has improved

tremendously since start of operation.

Indian involvement in anti-Pakistan activities have become more pronounced. The

statement of Indian PM that India played an active part in dismemberment of

Pakistan in 1971 only confirmed Pakistan’s accusations.



The statement of Sindh Rangers that more than Rs230 billion being generated

annually in Karachi through various illegal and criminal activities pointed towards

important fact that how part of militant enterprise is financed in the country.

Disrupting finances from all internal and external sources will be crucial for

effectively fighting this menace.

Conclusion

Security situation in the country continues to improve with some variations, in between, in

terms of violent militant activities. While strong armed tactics by the state/ security forces have

shown direct impact on security situation, still lot of work is required to be done. Not only various

dynamics in Pakistan will affect militancy in the country but evolving situation in Afghanistan will

also have its direct impact on security in Pakistan.

i “President says Indian terror threat calls for vigilance”, Dawn, 5 June 2015. http://www.dawn.com/news/1186268/president-says-indian-terror-threat-calls-for-vigilance

ii “Battle against terrorism cannot be won by the armed forces alone: COAS”, Dawn, 13 June 2015.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1187983/battle-against-terrorism-cannot-be-won-by-the-armed-forces-alone-coas

iii “Billions of black money being used to fund terrorism in Karachi: Rangers chief”, Dawn, 11 June 2015.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1187627/billions-of-black-money-being-used-to-fund-terrorism-in-karachi-rangers-chief

iv “Nearly 350 military men killed in Zarb-e-Azb: ISPR”. Dawn, 12 June 2015.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1187994/nearly-350-military-men-killed-in-zarb-e-azb-ispr

http://www.dawn.com/news/1186268/president-says-indian-terror-threat-calls-for-vigilance

http://www.dawn.com/news/1187983/battle-against-terrorism-cannot-be-won-by-the-armed-forces-alone-coas



http://www.dawn.com/news/1187994/nearly-350-military-men-killed-in-zarb-e-azb-ispr

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