In this presentation, we will:

1. Describe each step the Compass model and show comparable steps in the IRM.

• Compass = What, , Where, How• IRM= Who, What, When, Where, How, Why

1. Take a household through these steps and show how the household is treated differently in the two models.

2. Show how the additional complexity of the IRM provides additional sensitivity (we can test and represent more.) Reality Is more complicated than 4 step models can show.

– “Putting on the Glasses”

The New Regional Model - Focus

Big Picture• Effects of development pattern/design

– UGB scenarios– TOD– Urban Centers– “New” Urbanism vs traditional 20th century

suburban patterns– Mixed versus single use

The New Regional Model - Focus

Big Picture• Explicit modeling of bike/ped.• Time of day modeling• Person/household characteristics:

– Age– Gender– Household population composition

• Presence and age of children• Number of workers

The New Regional Model - Focus

Big Picture• Number of vehicles• Work at home• Full induced demand for the first time

– Trip/tour suppression/re-structuring– Trip-length changes– Mode changes– Time of day changes– Path changes

The New Regional Model - Focus

Details for Tekkies• Modeling trips in tours, not separately• Each household and job is given a precise

location (xy point)• Each household/person in the region is

represented individually – PUMS-level data

The New Regional Model - Focus

Details for Tekkies• More / real trip purposes:

– Old model: home-based work, home-based non-work, non-home-based

– New model: work, school, escort, shopping, eat meal, social-recreation, personal business

The New Regional Model - Focus

Bottom Line• The model operates at the level at which

decision actually are made– Usually the person– Occasionally the household

The New Regional Model - Focus

Bottom Line• The model operates at the level at which

decision actually are made– Usually the person– Occasionally the household

The New Regional Model - Focus

Bottom Line• disaggregate modeling means recognizing

that things are different, and describing them as they are:– Person/household type– Tour/trip type– Location– Time of day

The New Regional Model - Focus

Bottom Line• better modeling now – better ability to

improve in the future – better ability to run scenarios– Example – where will the elderly live?– Example – use of hybrid / electric vehicles.

Compassi. Network Processing

ii. Area Type

1. Trip Generationi. Highway/Transit Skims

2. Trip Distribution3. Mode Choice

i. Parking Cost

ii. Time-of-Day

4. Highway/Transit Assignment

1. Population SynthesizerNetwork Skims

Aggregate Mode/Destination Choice Logsum Generator

Mode Choice Logsum Generator

2. Regular Workplace Location Choice

3. Regular School Location Choice

4. Auto AvailabilityIntermediate Stop Logsum Generator

5. Daily Activity Pattern Choice

IRM

Exact Number of Tours Choice Work Tour Destination Type Choice ModelWork-Based Subtour Generation Choice

6. Tour Primary Destination Choice

7. Tour Main Mode Choice8. Tour Time of Day ChoiceIntermediate Stop Generation Choice

Intermediate Stop Location Choice

9. Trip Mode Choice10. Trip Departure Time Choice11. Assignment

How does the model do its job?It answers these questions:

– What kind of people…– In what kinds of households…– Living in what locations...– Working and going to school where and how– Do what kinds of things during their day…– Requiring them to make what kinds of trips…– To what locations…– By what travel modes…– By what paths through the transportation system?– At what times?

How does the model do its job?It answers these questions:

–What kind of people…– In what kinds of households…– Living in what locations…– Working and going to school where and how– Do what kinds of things during their day…– Requiring them to make what kinds of trips…– To what locations…– By what travel modes…– By what paths through the transportation system?– At what times?

?? ?

What do we know about the people in the households in the Compass model?

Answer: nothing.Example Family:Adult - Age?Job status?Adult – Age?Job status?Child – Age?Student status?RelationshipTo adults?

Example Family:Mother, Age 33Part Time Service WorkerFather, Age 34Full Time Education WorkerSon, Age 4Pre-School StudentFamily Income : $61,000

What do we know about the people in the households in the IRM?

Answer: Anything included in the Census.

What do we know about individual people in Compass?

Person Data in the IRM

Person IDHousehold ID Age

School Grade Gender

Hours Worked Per Week

Income Earned

Employ Category

556053 321005 29 0 Female 40 23400 Service556054 321006 8 2 Male 1 0 0556055 321007 61 0 Male 16 32500 Retail

Person ID RaceRelationship to Householder

School Grade

Weeks Worked per Year

Marital Status

Poverty Status

Employ Status

556053 Afr American Householder 0 52 Married 0 Full Time556054 White Son 2 0 Single 1 Not556055 Asian Householder 0 32 Single 0 Part Time

How does the model do its job?It answers these questions:

– What kind of people…

–In what kinds of households…– Living in what locations...– Working and going to school where and how– Do what kinds of things during their day…– Requiring them to make what kinds of trips…– To what locations…– By what travel modes…– By what paths through the transportation system?

Household Data in Compass

Household Data in the IRM

Household ID TAZ

Household Income

Number of People

Number of Children

Number in Household Under Age 5

Number in Household age 5 to 15

342652 307020 55000 1 0 0 0342653 307020 51000 2 1 1 0342654 307020 56000 6 4 2 2

Years at Residence Race

Building Size

Number of University Students

Own or Rent

Distance from household to nearest transit stop

Number of Full Time Workers

6 1 1 0 1 0.5 11 3 2 0 0 1 13 2 6 0 1 2 2

How does the model do its job?It answers these questions:

– What kind of people…– In what kinds of households…

–Living in what locations...– Working and going to school where and how– Do what kinds of things during their day…– Requiring them to make what kinds of trips…– To what locations…– By what travel modes…– By what paths through the transportation system?– At what times?

307320

705110301460

202120

202460

307200

703170

307120

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704160

307130

302250

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705150

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202280 307300

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705160

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307160

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705120704170

307150

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705100

704130

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202150

307180

307140

202260

705140

202140

704100

307260

704120

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106170

307330

704030

306020

704050

309010

202270

705180

704110

301450

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704070

704180

307240

302240

202320

705170

301510704210

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307170

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202300

307190

306010301500

704200

301480704090

307290

705130

202290

307090

704080

307030

306210

704220

704190

202470

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202340

120th Av e

I-25

Ok, so what do we know about household locations in Compass?Answer: They are located in traffic analysis zones, and…

And what do we know about households in the IRM?

We know a lot more about households in the IRM: why is that

better?• Households with more drivers and workers own

more cars.• Households with more cars make different

choices than households with fewer cars:– They make more tours– And use drive mode for them more often

• Point-level location means we actually know:– Walk distance to/from transit– Walk trip distance– Bike trip distance– Short auto trip distance.

We know a lot more about people in the IRM:

why is that better?• Lots of reasons!

– People tend to work in places where there are a lot of jobs in their field.

– Kids tend to go to school where their older siblings go.

– Workers tend to go to work, students tend to go to school, retired people tend not to do either (etc.)

– People with kids tend to cart them around a lot, and drive doing it.

How does the model do its job?It answers these questions:

– What kind of people…– In what kinds of households…– Living in what locations...

–Working and going to school where and how

– Do what kinds of things during their day…– Requiring them to make what kinds of trips…– To what locations…– By what travel modes…– By what paths through the transportation system?– At what times

405090

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412190

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412324412207

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412209412323

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412322

412321412214

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Civ ic Ce nte r Park

Colfax Av enue

Broa

dway

What do we know about where jobs are in Compass?

Answer: they are in traffic analysis zones, and…

What do we know about where jobs are in the IRM?

Job Data in Compass

Job Data in the IRM

Building ID Legal NameEmployment Type

Number of Employees Address

115497 Colorado State Glass and Mirror Retail 9 1120 Cooke Ct18663 Lookin Good Day Spa Service 2 6662 W 38th Ave

115498 Bruner Consulting Inc Service 1 1117 Alder Way

Building ID X Coordinate Y Coordinate Wages115497 5689090 4572891 $62,300

18663 4089972 57890849 $5,200115498 5575757 2890798 $6,700

What do we know about schools in Compass?

And about Schools in the IRM?

We know a lot more in the IRM:why is that better?

• Tie the kind of job people have to the kind of company and its location.

• We know precisely how far the company is from the transit stop.

• Non-university students tend to go school in their home school district.

• We know precisely how far the school is from each home.

How does the model do its job?It answers these questions:

– What kind of people…– In what kinds of households…– Living in what locations...– Working and going to school where and how

–Do what kinds of things during their day…

–Requiring them to make what kinds of trips…

– To what locations…– By what travel modes…– By what paths through the transportation system?– At what times?

What do we know about what people do during their day in Compass?

• Number of work trips by households in the zone.

• Number of other kinds of trips made by households in the zone.

Table 13: Final HBW Trip Production Rates Household Size Income Group

1 2 3 4 5+ Low (Less than $15,000) 0.515 1.339 1.339 1.339 2.575 Middle ($15,000 - $74,999) 1.236 1.854 2.060 2.266 2.575 High ($75,000 or more) 0.927 1.854 2.472 2.472 2.060 Source: PRD_HB_R.asc TransCAD file dated 10/22/2003

Table 14: Final HNW Trip Production Rates

Household Size Income Group 1 2 3 4 5+

Low (Less than $15,000) 1.272 2.438 4.982 4.982 4.982 Middle ($15,000 - $74,999) 1.378 3.392 4.876 7.526 10.282 High ($75,000 or more) 1.590 2.968 4.876 9.540 10.282 Source: PRD_HB_R.asc TransCAD file dated 10/22/2003

Table 15: Final NHB Trip Production Rates

Household Size Income Group 1 2 3 4 5+

Low (Less than $15,000) 0.784 0.784 2.912 2.912 2.912 Middle ($15,000 - $74,999) 1.344 2.576 2.912 3.808 3.584 High ($75,000 or more) 2.240 3.248 4.256 4.816 5.936 Source: PRD_HB_R.asc TransCAD file dated 10/22/2003

Compass Trip RatesNote also: only three types of trips- Home-Based Work, Home-Based Non-Work, and Non-Home Based

What do we know in the IRM?

• Mostly about things they do when they leave the house:– Exception: we know if they work at home.

• Out-of-home activities: work, school, shop, eat meal, socialize, escort others, personal business.

Doing what? Primary reason for going out

Just making a stop along the way

Working x

Going to school

Shopping

Escorting others x

Socializing

Eating out x

Personal business

IRM Activities in the Day

HOMEDAY CARE

PARK AND RIDE

WORKRESTAURANT

Walk

TOUR-BASED MODEL1 home-based work tour• 1 work- based meal tour• 2 intermediate serve passenger

stops

TRIP-BASED MODEL• 4 non-home based trips• Two home-based other trips• NHB trip poorly handled...

Tours Generated in the IRM

Doing what? Primary reason for going out

Just making a stop along the way

Working x

Going to school

Shopping X

Escorting others

Socializing

Eating out x

Personal business

IRM Activities in the Day

HOME WORK

STORE

TOUR-BASED MODEL• 1 home-based work tour• 1 shopping stop

TRIP-BASED MODEL• 1 home-based work trip• 1 non-home-based trip• 1 home-based non work trip

Tours Generated in the IRM

Doing what? Primary reason for going out

Just making a stop along the way

Working

Going to school X

Shopping

Escorting others

Socializing

Eating out

Personal business

IRM Activities in the Day

passenger

HOME DAY CARE

13 TOTAL TRIPS BY HOUSEHOLD:1 HOME-BASED WORK5 HOME-BASED NON-WORK7 NON-HOME BASED:

TOUR-BASED MODEL• 1 school tour

TRIP-BASED MODEL• 2 home-based non work trips

TOTAL TOURS BY INDIVIDUAL:WOMAN: 1 HOME BASED WORK TOUR

1 WORK-BASED MEAL TOUR 2 SERVE PASSENGER STOPS

MAN: 1 HOME BASED WORK TOUR 1 SHOPPING STOP

CHILD: 1 HOME-BASED SCHOOL TOUR

Tours Generated in the IRM

Why is it better that the IRM is more detailed in describing why

people travel?• Able to depict how changes in

demographics, like a larger older population, can cause different amounts and types of travel.

• Able to represent how much accessibility and mixed use density a person’s home zone has to other locations impact the amount of travel they do.

How does the model do its job?It answers these questions:

– What kind of people…– In what kinds of households…– Living in what locations...– Working and going to school where and how– Do what kinds of things during their day…– Requiring them to make what kinds of trips…

–To what locations…– By what travel modes…– By what paths through the transportation system?– At what times?

Table 23: Final HBW Trip Attraction Rates by Income Group

Income Group

Trip Attraction Rate per:

HouseholdProduction / DistributionEmployee

RetailEmployee

ServiceEmployee

Low (Less than $15,000) 0.003 0.027 0.082 0.070

Middle ($15,000 - $74,999) 0.020 0.787 0.916 0.776

High ($75,000 or more) 0.014 0.269 0.250 0.440

Total 0.037 1.083 1.248 1.286

Source: ATTHBW_R.asc TransCAD file dated 10/22/2003Notes: 1 Total rates shown only for comparison with models from other regions.

To what location do people go to do the activities? In Compass, the trip attractions and productions are used to predict trip origins and destinations.

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jijijiij

AFK

AFKPT

1

Tij = trips between TAZ i and TAZ jPi = productions in TAZ iAj = attractions in TAZ jKij = “K-factor” adjustment between TAZ i and TAZ jFij = “friction factor” between TAZ i and TAZ ji = production TAZj = attraction TAZn = total number of TAZs

In Trip-based models, the gravity model predicts the number of trips from origin to destination based on the number of productions in the origin zone and attractions in the destination zone.

Friction Factors are calibrated so that modeled trip length frequency distributions match observed trip length frequency distributions.

Trip Distribution Output: O-D matrix

Compass model outputFrom Trip Distribution:

Home-Based Work Trips from Zone 307020

Compass model outputFrom Trip Distribution:

Home-Based Non-Work Trips from Zone 307020

Tour origin

Tour destination

Where does the woman go during her day? The IRM destination choice models could predict the following for the woman:

The IRM destination choice models could predict the following for the man:

Why is it better how destinations are chosen in the IRM?

• Can test how desirable a location is by how easy it is to get there by all modes including transit.

• Can test how mixed use density causes a destination to be more desirable

• Can test how a person chooses destinations close to their usual work or school zone.

How does the model do its job?It answers these questions:

– What kind of people…– In what kinds of households…– Living in what locations...– Working and going to school where and how– Do what kinds of things during their day…– Requiring them to make what kinds of trips…– To what locations…

–By what travel modes…– By what paths through the transportation system?– At what times?

How does mode choice work in Compass?

• Each trip purpose has a model (HBW, HBNW, NHB.)

• All trips between each zone-pair are treated as being identical.

• Trips that are really in the same tour know nothing about each other.

• Outputs are trip tables by mode by purpose (and by income for HBW.)

Compass mode choice output: O-D Trips by Mode

HOME DAY CARE

PARK AND RIDE

WORKRESTAURANT

Drive- SR2

Drive to Transit

Walk

Example IRM Mode Choices for the Woman

HOME WORK

STORE

Drive Alone

Example IRM Mode Choices for the Man

passenger

HOME DAY CARE

Drive- SR2

Example IRM Mode Choices for the Child

Why is the IRM better at representing mode choice?

• Has bike and walk modes as a choice• Represents how Origin and destination

employment density impacts a person’s mode choice

• Represents how a person’s auto availability impacts mode choice

• Allows school tours and work-based subtours to have different mode choices than other tours (Compass just has home-based other)

How does the model do its job?It answers these questions:

– What kind of people…– In what kinds of households…– Living in what locations...– Working and going to school where and how– Do what kinds of things during their day…– Requiring them to make what kinds of trips…– To what locations…– By what travel modes…– By what paths through the transportation system?

–At what times?

When do trips occur?

CompassVery Simple Model:Time-of-Day Factors

For Example, 68% of Home-Based Work Tours, arrive at work from 6:30 am –9:00 am.

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OP1 AM1 AM3AM2 OP3OP2 OP4 OP1PM3PM2PM1

Compass: Time-of-Day Factors applied (based on total observed vehicles hours observed in each period)

Compass Model Time of Day Outputs: O-D Trips by Time of Day

IRM Time of Day Models

• Tour time-of-day:– Predicts start and end of tour– Higher priority tours run first, block out times

of day not available to lower priority toursTour time-of-day:

• Trip time-of-day:– Predicts departure time from each stop– In-transit time known, so serves as departure

time and duration model

HOME DAY CARE

PARK AND RIDE

WORKRESTAURANT

time Time

time

Example IRM Mode Choices for the Woman

Why are the IRM time of day models better?

• Can better represent time-shifting due to congestion

• Can represent how changes in demographics impact time of day choices, i.e. more retired people means less congestion peaking

• Can represent how a person’s mode choice impacts what time of day they travel, i.e. I can’t take the bus until 3:15 PM

Tour ID Person ID Tour PurposeTour Origin Point ID

Tour Destination Point ID Tour Mode

Tour Destination Arrival Time

Tour Destination Departure Time

541298 127804 Work 987130 1384689 Drive to Transit 8:00 AM 5:00 PM541299 127804 Restaurant 1384689 1578908 Walk 12:00 PM 1:00 PM541300 127805 School 987130 693920 Shared Ride 2 7:00 AM 6:00 PM541898 127806 Work 987130 578925 Drive Alone 8:00 AM 5:00 PM

Example Tour Outcomes for the Family : Purpose, Origin, Destination Mode, Time of Day

Finally, in both the IRM and Compass models the choices of where to go, when, by what mode are

assigned to the networks. Example AM Peak Highway Flows:

The woman drives with the child to the daycare down 120th, then takes the bus route 122X to Civic Center, and walks from the station to work down Broadway.

Key Model Differences

• Trip/tour generation sensitivity.• Time-of-day sensitivity.• Development pattern sensitivity.• Modeling of non-motorized modes and

walk access to transit.• Trips connected in tours.• Person-level decisions made at the person

level – using many person characteristics.

Scenario Sensitivity Examples- Why the IRM is better?

How does putting on the glasses help us see better?

• Effects of aging population or other changes in demographics.

• Effects of neighborhood “gentrification.”• Enhanced EJ evaluation.• Better evaluation of “induced demand.”• “Peak spreading” effects.• Effects of transit-oriented development.• Effect of built environment on Bike and Ped

Movement

Walk Mode SharesExample Output

Bike Mode SharesExample Output

Factors that make a trip more likely to use walk/bike modes

Factors that make a trip less likely to use walk/bike modes

PERSON CHARACTERISTICS•No car in Household•Fewer cars than drivers•Low income•University student•Meal or Social Trip Purpose

BUILT ENVIRONMENT•Mixed use origin/destination•Intersection density•CBD destination•Residential density

PERSON CHARACTERISTICS•High income•Age over 50•Female•Preschool age•Driving age HS student

BUILT ENVIRONMENT•Rural origin•Long walk/bike time

A Bit on Status

• All models estimated (around 50 or so.)• Database design complete.

– Suzanne Childress will talk more about this.• Software 2/3 complete.

– Jen Malm will talk more about this.