In the In the name of name of

GODGOD

Population and Its Norm (Iran Specimen)

By: Dr. Mehdi MomeniIslamic Azad University Najafabad Branch

With regard to its geographic and climatic conditions, Iran has some limitations in its natural resources,

notably water and land. The recent uncontrollable population growth has

exerted great pressure on forests and grassland leading to their total

destruction in some parts. The present study pivots on this assumption that

Iran’s population has exceeded its proportional equilibrium norms.

The uncontrollable growth in recent decades and The uncontrollable growth in recent decades and the relative poverty of water and soil resources the relative poverty of water and soil resources have caused intense pressure on these natural have caused intense pressure on these natural blessings, leading to ecological imbalances in many blessings, leading to ecological imbalances in many areas of the country. This problem forced the areas of the country. This problem forced the governments to consider population projects. governments to consider population projects. Graph 1 shows Iran’s population in recent decades.Graph 1 shows Iran’s population in recent decades.

Graph 1. Population Growth in Recent Decades in IranGraph 1. Population Growth in Recent Decades in Iran

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

year

million

Favorable Population NormsFavorable Population NormsFrench famous demographer, Vebre, gives a more French famous demographer, Vebre, gives a more precise and clear definition of desirable population precise and clear definition of desirable population norm. To him, a desirable population norm maintains norm. To him, a desirable population norm maintains the best balance between resources and the number the best balance between resources and the number of people. A standard population, in a country or of people. A standard population, in a country or region, is economically balanced if it can meet the region, is economically balanced if it can meet the following conditions.following conditions.

1- All of the people seeking work are employed is 1- All of the people seeking work are employed is different social jobs.different social jobs.

2- All of the natural resources are exploited logically 2- All of the natural resources are exploited logically and proportionally without destruction or waste.and proportionally without destruction or waste.

3- The average cost of living permits people to use the 3- The average cost of living permits people to use the lowest level of calories needed individually. lowest level of calories needed individually.

Based on the above three conditions, the present state Based on the above three conditions, the present state of population in Iran reveals an uncontrolled increase. of population in Iran reveals an uncontrolled increase. The available official statistics show that in 1980, 89.8 The available official statistics show that in 1980, 89.8 percent of people of the total groups between 15 to 64 percent of people of the total groups between 15 to 64 years of age were busy and 10.2 percent of people years of age were busy and 10.2 percent of people were jobless. The number of the unemployed between were jobless. The number of the unemployed between 1990 and 2000 has augmented to 14.2 percent in 1990 1990 and 2000 has augmented to 14.2 percent in 1990 to almost 19.1 percent in 2000. At the present time, to almost 19.1 percent in 2000. At the present time, (2006) the unemployment rate, as the official figures (2006) the unemployment rate, as the official figures show, is 13 percent but unofficial statistics indicate it is show, is 13 percent but unofficial statistics indicate it is two times as much. two times as much.

The main reasons for such an increase could be the The main reasons for such an increase could be the relatively high rate of population growth in recent relatively high rate of population growth in recent decade, the economic recessions of the recent years, decade, the economic recessions of the recent years, and the lack of sufficient investments to employ the and the lack of sufficient investments to employ the jobless population.jobless population.

• To study how to exploit natural resources without causing any destruction, it suffices to examine forests and grasslands in Iran. Based on the statistical figures released by the F.A.O., the surface area of forests in Iran was 18 million hectares at the end of the year 1980 (FAO, 1988, p. 25). The last figures published in 2002 by the Organization for the Protection of the Environment estimated the total area of the forest to be about 12 million hectares. This means 6 million hectares of woods has been destroyed just in 2 decades

An inevitable result of the destruction of grasslands and forests is An inevitable result of the destruction of grasslands and forests is the recent horrific catastrophic floods which are the immediate the recent horrific catastrophic floods which are the immediate results of mismanagement and lack of attention to these valuable results of mismanagement and lack of attention to these valuable natural resources. The frequency of flood incidences has been on natural resources. The frequency of flood incidences has been on the rise in the past 50 years. In the 1960s the number of floods the rise in the past 50 years. In the 1960s the number of floods was 195. It increased to 233, 431, and 904 in the 1970s, 1980s was 195. It increased to 233, 431, and 904 in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, respectively. In the past 5 years we have witnessed and 1990s, respectively. In the past 5 years we have witnessed 1108 flood in Iran.1108 flood in Iran.

Graph 2. The Growth of Floods in Recent DecadesGraph 2. The Growth of Floods in Recent Decades

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

year

flood

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1330

1335

1340

1345

1350

1355

1360

1365

1370

1375

1380

1385

YEAR

POPULATION

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FLOOD

POPULATION FLOOD

Conclusion and SuggestionsConclusion and Suggestions Iran’s geographical situation and its climatic Iran’s geographical situation and its climatic

conditions, resulting from its place in the world conditions, resulting from its place in the world desert belt have imposed certain restrictions on its desert belt have imposed certain restrictions on its resources. Its uncontrolled population growth in resources. Its uncontrolled population growth in recent decades has pressurized its natural recent decades has pressurized its natural resources leading to extensive destruction. The resources leading to extensive destruction. The impact of such pressure, direct or indirect, is quite impact of such pressure, direct or indirect, is quite remarkable in all economic and social projects, remarkable in all economic and social projects, especially in agricultural ones. The scarcity of especially in agricultural ones. The scarcity of water, a direct result of its dry climate, dominating water, a direct result of its dry climate, dominating all of the country is a basic problem. As far as Iran’s all of the country is a basic problem. As far as Iran’s soil is concerned, as a result of uncontrolled soil is concerned, as a result of uncontrolled exploitation of soil, its ecosystem hardly exploitation of soil, its ecosystem hardly reconstructs itself in the arid and semi arid regions.reconstructs itself in the arid and semi arid regions.

• to avoid “population explosion”, it is very urgent for the government to use instructional and cultural strategies applying warnings, propaganda, logical guidelines and the latest preventive methods to control population growth.

ENDEND