importance of incorporating ecosystem services within the

Importance of incorporating

ecosystem services within the context

of social-ecological systems

Lawrence (Larry) A. Kapustka, Ph.D

LK Consultancy

Turner Valley, Alberta [email protected]

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, & Medicine

Committee on the Potential for Biotechnology to Address Forest Health

Public Meeting #3

5 April 2018

Washington, DC

mailto:[email protected]

Themes

Ecological-Sociological Constructs for Sustainability

Ecological Risk Assessment with a Landscape Perspective (Scale Issues)

Hierarchical Constraints (Understanding Emergent Properties)

Adverse Outcome Pathways and –omics

Conceptual Models and Bayesian Networks

Cautions of Predicting Futures and the Need for Active Adaptive Management

Interrelationships within Socio-ecological Systems

Ecological System Maintain diversity and redundancy

Manage connectivity

Manage slow variables and feedbacks

Social System Foster an understanding of social-

ecological systems as complex adaptive systems

Encourage learning and experimentation

Broaden participation

Promote polycentric governance systems

Biggs R, Schlüter M, Schoon ML. 2015. Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological Systems. Cambridge University Press, 290 pp.

Ideals for the Risk Framework

Structured approach to identify stakeholder issues and values

Builds values into project-specific conceptual model

Links values to activities in the context of the ecological setting

Places values in proper time and space relationships

Organizes information into scenarios

Evaluates likelihood of scenarios being realized

Informs decisions

Pertaining to Trade-offs

Explicitly describes uncertainty (quantitative and qualitative)

Structures triggers for active adaptive management

4

PROBLEM FORMULATION

ANALYSIS

RISK CHARACTERIZATION

Data

Ac

qu

isitio

n; V

erific

atio

n a

nd

Mo

nito

ring

Characterization of

Exposure

Characterizationof

Effects

Risk Management

Discussion Between the

Risk Assessor and Risk Manager

(Results)

Discussion

Between the

Risk Assessor

and

Risk Manager

(Planning)

Source: US EPA Risk Assessment Forum 1992

U.S.EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Framework

New Directions in Ecological Risk Assessment

Shift toward integrated, holistic approaches to frame and analyze ecological systems.

One Health – integration of human health and ecological systems addressed holistically

Landscape Perspective – Considers the connectivity and interactions among

communities (also requires holistic approach)

Ecosystem Services as Endpoints – Uses a systems perspective to examine multiple

components within the sociological-ecological landscape with a focus on the stocks and

flows of ecological services (i.e., those things that are beneficial to human societies)

Genomics – allows detailed interrogation of a system to identify community composition

(primarily using DNA extracted from the medium such as water, sediment, or soil) and

function (primarily using RNA to identify which genes are being expressed)

Adverse Outcome Pathways – attempts to build weight of evidence and causal linkages

from molecular dynamics to the input into population models. [Note that some purport to bridge

from molecule to population, but really it only reaches the point of having plausible data to put into individual-based population models.]

Bayesian Network Models to establish probability of alternative outcomes and address

causality

Problem FormulationUnderstand management goals and decision spaceIdentify Receptors consistent with management goalsDevelop a Conceptual ModelSelect Assessment EndpointsDefine Data Quality ObjectivesSelect Measurement EndpointsPrepare Sampling and Analysis PlanPrepare Quality Assurance Plan

Lignin Modification• Aim is to reduce pulping costs and use

of hazardous chemicals in bleaching

processes thereby lowering associated

contamination

• Challenges in compromised structural

integrity, increased susceptibility to

pathogens leading to increased need

for pesticides

Enhanced Frost Tolerance• Aim is to increase the range

of trees (e.g., Eucalyptus

species)

• Questions of introducing

exotic species and

accompanying “hitchhiker”

species

Lowered Rootstock Vigour

• Aim is to keep orchard trees

short to facilitate harvest

• Challenge of weakened

anchoring

Accelerated Growth• Aim is to reduce time to harvest (heading toward

5-year cycle) and increase yield

• Challenge to maintain soil fertility in the face of

increased water and nutrient demand

Disease Resistance

• Elm, Chestnut in hope of re-establishing that have been

lost in wild conditions

• Challenge of displacing species that have filled the

ecological void

Insect Resistance (Bt)• Resist insect infestation

• Concerns of gene transfer

and creating “super

weeds”

Conceptual Model (CM):a critical part of the risk framework focus

A pictorial/narrative description of how the project, stressor, or event is perceived to work in the specific ecological setting

Proper consideration time and space scales of project and surroundings

Humans and human activities part of the ecological system

Individual values (issues) arranged into linkage diagrams compatible with modelling efforts

8

The Hardest Part – reaching an agreed CM

The overarching goal in building a conceptual model, is to

effectively communicate an agreed understanding of the

ecological-sociological setting and how the substance, project,

or policy will influence that system.

Like all wicked problems, reaching the agreed understanding

must be negotiated anew for each situation, and as new

information or insights are obtained, the CM will require

modification

As the process unfolds, a touchstone focus should be directed

toward agreement on what constitutes success and maintains

open channels of dialogue to address new insights and shifting

values

An Introductory Biology Fallacy

Molecule

Atom

Organelle

Cell

Tissue

Organ

Organism

Population

Species

Community

Biome

Biosphere

Hierarchical Patch Dynamics

Level of Interest

Context

Mechanism

Emergent Properties Thwart Attempts at Linear

Modelling

Community(Structure, diversity,

energy transfer

efficiency, stability,…)

Xenobiotic

introduction

Site of action

DNA-RNA

Membrane receptors

Key enzymes

Molecules(Biotransformation

parameters)

Cells(Biochemical

parameters)

Ecosystem

effects

Organisms(Physiological

parameters: mortality,

morbidity, reproductive

success, mutation)

Organismal approach Eco-systemic approach

Toxicology Ecology

Ecotoxicology

Population(Density, productivity,

mating success,

competitive alterations

Inheritable genome, homeostasy Historical traits, non-linearity, chaotic

behaviour around attractors

An Approach to Mechanistic Toxicology

Tracing the causal chain from molecular interactions to organism-and population-level effects

Source: Ankley et al. 2010. Adverse outcome pathways: A conceptual framework to support ecotoxicology research and risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 29:730-741.

The Ultimate Goal: Explicit Linkage of Suborganismal Effects to Population Effects

Source: Kramer et al. 2011. Adverse outcome pathways and ecological risk assessment: Bridging to population‐level effects. Environ Toxicol Chem 30:64-76

As of yet, there is no

robust model capable

of predicting real-

world population

responses.

Emergent properties of

populations confound

predictions.

[births, deaths,

immigration,

emigration, influenced

by compensatory

feedback loops]



Manage connectivity








15

Feedback LoopFeedback

Loopa b

-

+Positive also Reinforcing

Negative also Dampening

Time

Are

a

ab

c d

e fA B n

Multiple, nested feedback loops operating on

different temporal and spatial scales.

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

1

Time (yr)

Are

a (

ha

)

Kapustka L. 2008. Limitations of the current practices used to perform ecological risk assessment. Integrated Environ. Assess Management 4:290-298

Adapted from Kapustka L. 2008. Limitations of the current practices used to perform ecological risk assessment. Integrated Environ. Assess Management 4:290-298.

organism

The Answer is 42!

“…[due to] the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically

studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error.”

A type III error is when a correct analysis is conducted but to the wrong

question for establishing the cause (Schwartz and Carpenter 1999)

June 2017Assessing Risks to Humans and the Environment

17

Landis WG, Durda JL, Brooks ML, Chapman PM, Menzie CA, Stahl Jr RG, Stauber JL. 2013. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change. Environ Toxicol Chem 32:79-92.

Schwartz S, Carpenter KM. 1999. The right answer for the wrong question: Consequences of type III error for public health research. Am J Public Health 89:1175–1180.

McCormick R, LA Kapustka. 2016. The Answer is 42… What is “THE” Question? J Environ Studies Science DOI 10.1007/s13412-016-0376-7

Ecosystem Services – sustainability

McCormick et al. 2012. Exploring SETAC’s Roles in the Global Dialogue on Sustainability—An Opening Debate Integr Environ Assess Manag 9:7-11

“Usable expressions (i.e., models) of the

processes by which ecosystems produce

ecosystem services, often including external

influences on those processes…”

EcosystemEcosystem

Servicesecological production function

How are EPFs defined?

Source: Van Wensem J, Calow P, Dollacker A, Maltby L, Olander L, Tuvendal M, Van Houtven G. 2017. Identifying and

assessing the application of ecosystem services approaches in environmental policies and decision making. Integr Environ Manag Assess 13(1):41–51.

EPFs in an environmental management context and decision space

Greater need for EPFs in the assessment of chemicals in environmental management: agricultural pesticides as an example

In the spirit of managing forest lands

for multiple uses, benefits and risks

need to be considered holistically to

account for the complexity of

ecosystem services cherished by the

diverse array of stakeholders.

Bruins RJF, Canfield TJ, Duke C, Kapustka L, Nahlik AM, Schäfer RB. 2017. Using ecological production functions to link ecological processes to ecosystem services. Integr Environ Assess Manage 13:52-61.

The Relative Risk Model and Bayesian Networks

Bruce Marcot and colleagues have used Bayesian Networks to address forest

management challenges for the past two decades.



Manage connectivity








“Mind Map” of System Foci of most

assessments

Principal features of community conditioning

1. Ecological systems are complex, multidimensional,

and dynamic

2. Equilibrium is never attained, one piece of the system

may appear to be in stasis, but other parts of the system

are in flux

3. Historical events determine current and future

structures

4. Past conditions cannot be repeated

5. Forecasting future state of systems is tenuous

Matthews, R.A., Landis, W.G., and Matthews, G.B. 1996. The community conditioning hypothesis

and its application to environmental toxicology. Environ. Toxicol. Chem., 15, 597–603.

Why humility should be front and centre when attempting to manipulate ecosystems.

Qualitatively an Impact?From USGS website.

Additional References

Kapustka LA, Landis WG (Eds.). 2010. Environmental Risk Assessment and

Management from a Landscape Perspective. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York,

NY USA, 396pp.

Kapustka L, Froese K, McCormick R. 2010. Revisiting the Rationale for Holistic,

Integrated Risk Assessments. Integrated Environ Assess Management 4:774-776

Kapustka LA, Landis WG. 1998. Ecology: the Science Versus the Myth. Human Ecol

Risk Assess 4:829-838

importance of incorporating ecosystem services within the

Documents