incorporating climate change into ecosystem service ... · incorporating climate change into...
TRANSCRIPT
Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and
decisions: A review
Rebecca Runting ([email protected]) @RKRunting
ACES, 7th December 2016
Supervisors:
Dr. Laura Dee,
Fleur Maseyk,
Dr. Lisa Mandle,
Dr. Perrine Hamel,
Prof. Kerrie Wilson,
KathleenYetka.
Collaborators:
A/Prof. Jonathan Rhodes
Dr. Brett Bryan
Prof. Hugh Possingham
Photo: Catherine Lovelock
Aims
• Identify gaps relating to– Ecological/geographical context
– The inclusions in the study: • ecosystem services,
• attributes of climate change,
• other drivers,
• uncertainties,
• decision making
• Determine the impacts of climate change and other key drivers
• Identify methods used across assessment components
[email protected] @RKRunting
Literature search: Articles published between 1990 - July 2014 using specific key-words: (“ecosystem service*” OR “ecosystem good*”) AND (climat* NEAR chang*) n = 1567
Filter: Title and abstract examined for relevant studies.
n = 150
Irrelevant Studies excluded:n = 1417
Questionnaire: Full article is reviewed by two readers who independently complete the data extraction survey.
Irrelevant Studies excluded:n = 33
Crosscheck: The independent responses were compared then resolved through discussion. Further papers were excluded if it was agreed that they did not meet the requirements of the first filter.
n = 117
Analysis: Extracted data is summarized and analyzed.
Review Methods
4
Questions
(i) Study AreaLocation, spatial scale, type of ecosystem
(ii) Ecosystem services (ES)Which ES? Supply/demand?
(iii) Drivers: ClimateWhat aspects of climate change (e.g. temperature)?
Impact on ES? Methods used?
(iv) Drivers: OtherWhich drivers? Impact on ES? Interaction?
(v) Decision MakingNo. objectives? Which methods? Solutions?
(vi) UncertaintySource of uncertainty? Methods used? Are solutions robust to uncertainty?
[email protected] @RKRunting
7
Results: Ecosystem services
8
Results: Impacts on ES
Climate change:
9
Results: Impacts on ES
Other drivers:
13
Results: Uncertainty
Food
Raw materials
Freshwater
Medicinal Resources
Local Climate
Carbon Sequestration
Moderation of extreme events
Waste water treatment
Erosion prevention/soil fertility
Pollination
Biological control
Recreation
Tourism
Aesthetic appreciation
Spiritual
Methods
EmpircalStatistical (no field data)Statistical (with field data)Process-based (no field data)Process-based (with field data)Expert / stakeholderOther
a
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Number of analyses
Sce
nario
ana
lysis
Sen
sitiv
ity a
nalysis
Muliple m
odels
Pro
babilis
tic
Oth
er
Magnitude of climate change
Magnitude of other drivers
How climate change impacts ES
How other drivers impact ES
How an intervention impacts ES
How ES are supplied
How ES are delivered
49
23
2
1
1
1
0
8
3
5
0
3
10
2
25
1
2
0
0
1
2
1
1
1
1
0
1
2
0
1
0
0
1
5
0
49
c
b
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percent of analyses
Positive Negative Mixed Neutral
Empircal
Statistical (no field data)
Statistical (with field data)
Process-based (no field data)
Process-based (with field data)
Expert / stakeholder
Other
d
0 5 10 15 20
Number of analyses
Market methods
Production approaches
Avoidance cost
Replacement cost
Travel cost
Contingent valuation
Benefit transfer
Method used
Sou
rce
of
un
cert
ain
ty
Results: Decision Making
• Not often included:
• Rarely robust:– Only 5 studies had solutions/management strategies that were
robust.– 3 of these focused on a single ecosystem service (1 objective).– Usually only 1 or 2 sources of uncertainty.
Decision making
Uncertainty
Other drivers
Incorporated Mentioned Ignored
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percent of studies
[email protected] @RKRunting
Conclusions
15
• Variability of impacts across drivers, services and methods (!)
• Multiple drivers and uncertainties should be incorporated.
• Need to develop/apply robust decision making methods.
Photo: Catherine Lovelock
