Implications of bio-fuels expansion on water

Rome, September, 2010

László Máthé

Bioenergy coordinator

WWF International/Scotland

Freshwater Team

Outline

• First, understand the water implications for food...

• What does this mean for biofuels? • 4 first steps

Step 1 - Read this!

Our water future?• In the next 50 years the global population will rise to a projected 9 billion.• Rural to urban migration and changing diets will increase agricultural

water demand, as people choose to eat more “thirsty crops” like fruit, vegetables, edible oils and especially meat.

• Therefore food and feed crop demand will nearly double over the next 50 years (not including fibre and biofuels).

• With current water productivity this increased demand will result in a 70-90% increase in evapo-transpiration from agriculture.

• These estimates do not yet include the impacts of climate change on evapo-transpiration.

• Currently around 70% of all water abstraction globally is for agricultural purposes.

• Irrigation provides 40% of the world’s food from less than 20% of its arable land.

• In times of crisis, governments will prioritise their national needs for food security over other concerns.

Projected changes under the CA’s

“Optimistic Scenario”

Year 2000

Year2050

Irrigated agricultural area (million ha)

% growth

340 394

+16%

Rainfed agricultural area (million ha)

% growth

860 920

+7%

Irrigated cereal yield (metric tonnes/ha)

% growth

3.70 5.74

+55%

Rainfed cereal yield (metric tonnes/ha)

% growth

2.46 3.88

+58%

Water productivity: irrigated crops (kg/m3)

% growth

0.68 1.01

+48%

Crop water consumption: rainfall (km3)

% growth

5560 6570

+19%

Crop water consumption: irrigation (km3)

% growth

1570 1945

+24%

Withdrawals for irrigation (km3)

% growth

2630 2975

+13%

Water-saving practices for thirsty crops

Crop Selected water-saving practices

Rice

Shorter land preparation period Direct or dry seeding Laser levelling Aerobic rice varieties

Sugarcane

Drip, sprinkler and alternate furrow irrigation Water deficit during crop elongation Replanting crop die-off each year

Cotton

Knowledge about cotton growth models Water deficit in non-critical growth periods Shallow soil cultivation Drip, sprinkler and alternate furrow irrigation

Wheat

Broad-bed cultivation Drip, sprinkler and alternate furrow methods Zero tillage and laser levelling Water deficit in non-critical growth periods Crop varieties that grow under sub-optimal water availability

Biofuels

• What does this all mean for biofuels?

• Subject to the same if not more scrutiny• Under the spotlight – judged as competition• Watershed – not field level impacts are what

matters• Understand your total ‘context’

Under the spotlight

1. Screen using the WBCSD tool2. Target Water Footprint on problem areas3. Reduce your own ‘impacts’4. Get the context managed

Four steps to start

Step 1 – Screen using WBCSD tool What is the water status around your factories and farms?

Abundant

Stress

Scarce

Extremely scarce

Sufficient

Acknowledgements to SABMiller

Step 2 - Target Water Footprint assessment on known problem areas

What kind of water dependency is it?

34

293

391

47

281

836

416

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-

459

350

155

-

96

-

-

148

-

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Barley - Taung (irrigated)

Barley - Caledon (rain fed only)

Maize - Mpamalanga (rain fed only)

Maize - NW Province (irrgated)

Hops - George (irrigated)

Sugar - Natal (part irrigated)

Depth of water per hectare of cultivation (mm)

Green Water

Blue Water

Grey Water

Step 3 - Reduce your own ‘impacts’Reduce the impacts of your operations and purchases –

without this you are not credible

Step 4 - Get the context managedAct beyond the fence-line

Water is a shared problem so work together to address it Working together will reduce costs of mitigating risks

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Mean groundwater level* Annual asapragus production** (millions kg's)

Species example

“we shan’t save all we’d like to, but we shall save a great deal more

than if we had never tried.”

Sir Peter Scott – WWF Founder