global trends in transport fuels and the implications for australian policy russell caplan chairman,...
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Global Trends in Transport Fuels and the implications for
Australian policy
Russell CaplanChairman, Shell Companies in Australia
Bureau for Transport and Regional Economics ColloquiumCanberra, 15 June 2006
Global trends
1. Continuing use of conventional fuels
2. Cleaner transport fuels
3. Fuel and engine efficiency
4. Price pressures
5. Refinery location & capacity
6. Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
0
4
8
12
16
1971 2002 2010 2020 2030
World energy demand 1971-2030
IEA 2004 (reference case)
billion tonnes oil equivalentother renewableshydronuclearbiomass & waste
coal
gas
oil
Demand for Oil to 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2004 2010 2030
mbb
l per
day
OECD
TransitionEconomies
DevelopingCountries
InternationalBunkers
From Akmal and Riwoe (2005), per AIP submission to the Inquiry into Future Oil Supply and Alternative
Transport Fuels (2006)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Heavy Oil
Diesel / Gasoline
Electricity
GasHydrogen
Data source ： WEC; with modification
Synthetic fueland biofuels
Liquid Fuels
Gaseous Fuels
Energy Demand （ x1018 J ）
Forecast global automotive fuel demand to 2100
Global trends
1. Continuing use of conventional fuels
2. Cleaner transport fuels– Clean fuels - unleaded, lower sulphur– Synthetic fuels – GtL, CtL– Biofuels
3. Fuel and engine efficiency
4. Price pressures
5. Refinery location & capacity
6. Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
Identical products from gas, coal and biomass
Range of feedstock options
Synthetic Fuels Continuum
Natural Gas
Biomass
Fischer-Tropsch processIdentical Products
GTL
Syngas
BTL
CTL
Coal
Shell Gasificati
on Process
Shell Coal Gasificatio
n Process
Gasifier
Biofuels
Bio-Gasoline 4%
Bio-Diesel 3%
XTL Diesel 4%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
KBPDShell Global Road Transport Fuel
Volume Base Case
Diesel 45%
Gasoline 44% Conventional gasoline and diesel = 89%
Bio-fuels: ~ 7 %
CO2 reduction from bio-fuel:
~ 3 MT 2005~ 17 MT 2025
Source: IEA, PX, DXF
Global trends1. Continuing use of conventional fuels
2. Cleaner transport fuels
3. Fuel and engine efficiency– Smaller cars, hybrids– More diesel– More efficient engine technology– Driver education
4. Price pressures
5. Refinery location & capacity
6. Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
Global trends
1. Continuing use of conventional fuels
2. Cleaner transport fuels
3. Fuel and engine efficiency
4. Price pressures
– Demand side factors
– Supply side factors
5. Refinery location & capacity
6. Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
Global trends
1. Continuing use of conventional fuels
2. Cleaner transport fuels
3. Fuel and engine efficiency
4. Price pressures
5. Refinery location & capacity – Construction of mega-refineries– Located in Asia or Middle East– Rising finished product imports into Australia
6. Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
Asian Refining
Refinery**China: large coastal refineries only
Source: Oil & Gas Journal; Petroleum Economist World Energy Atlas; McKinsey analysis
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Refinery Capacity, thousands of barrels per day
Australian Refineries
Global trends
1. Continuing use of conventional fuels
2. Cleaner transport fuels
3. Fuel and engine efficiency
4. Price pressures
5. Refinery location & capacity
6. Self-sufficiency vs economic growth
Determining a vision for transport fuels in 2050• Should we have a long term transport energy
vision?
• What fuels are present in the vision?
• Where do our fuels come from?
• What is the interplay between transport fuels and generation fuels?
• What environmental footprint will the fuels of the future have?
• What do we need to do today to set ourselves up to achieve the vision?