implication of cancer biology to the future
TRANSCRIPT
Predicting the Future of Economic Growth:
A Lesson from Cancer BiologyChi-Ping Day, Ph.D.
Laboratory of Cancer Biology and GeneticsNational Cancer Institute, NIH
Las Vegas
Why Urban Sprawl….
Urban development
Tumor formation
Founding business center
Initiating cells in niche
Worsening environment of
the city
Cellular crowding and hypoxia
Necrotic core and angiogenesis to
promote growth of peripheral region
Deteriorating inner city and highway system to
promote suburban development
Worsening environment of suburban and new highways
to promote urban sprawl
Expansion of necrotic core and further angiogenesis to promote tumor invasion and
spreading
… Looks So Familiar for Cancer Biologists?
Howard Odum’s Maximum Power Principle
“When a lion is chasing, all you have to do is to run faster than your friends.”
Resource (R)
Capital/Structure (C)
Powerk1 k2 k3
’R = -k1CR ’C = k2CR-K3C
Simple Model of Organization Growth Driven by Non-renewable Resource (Lotka-Volterra Style)
Structural maintenance Resource
extraction
Organization Becomes More Complex as Resource Depleting
Early Stage Later Stage
Size Range
1
3 4
52
R’ = −k1CRC’= k2CR – k3C
R’ C
Time
Stoc
k of
R o
r Size
of C
R
Size of economy (C)
Rate
of P
rodu
ction
(R’)
1
3
4
5
2
Why Economy Has to Grow: Lock-in Effect
Resource depletion
Harder to extract
Organization growth
Increasing extraction capacity
Resource Crisis Spiral
Lock-in Effect: Demographic Transition
Demographic Resource
Social structure & life style Power
Structural maintenance
Extraction & regeneration
Paul Chefurka, http://www.paulchefurka.ca/DTMandEnergy.html
390 BC 200 BC
200 AD
30 BC
500 AD410 AD
Mediterranean agriculture Sicilian grain and Spanish silver North African grain and Dacian gold
Egyptian and North African grains(“Pax Romana”)
Loss of North Africa Collapse of empire system
Example of Roman Empire
Infrastructure of Roman Empire: Water Ways and Land Roads
Out of Resource Crisis Spiral: Lesson from Tumor
GlucoseO2
Glucose GlutamineFatty acids,
ketone bodiesMobilization of
distant resources
Anaerobic glycolysis
Anaerobic glutaminolysis Mitochondria
revivalAutonomic neural and endocrine controls of
metabolism
Oncogene
Cell cycle and anti-apoptosis
Glucose and lactate
transporters
Angiogenesis and ECM degradation
Local adipose tissue Metastasis
Reso
urce
Tech
nolo
gyIn
frast
ruct
ure
Lesson from Tumor: Wave of Resource Switch
Cancer Cachexia
Wound repair Oxidative stress Systemic inflammation
https://www.census.gov/history/www/reference/maps/growth_distribution_of_cities_1790-2000.html
Coal Coal and oil Imported oil
wood and coalWoodWood
Energy Transition and Urbanization in U.S.
Energy and Infrastructures in U.S.
Coal mines
Canal system
WoodsOil fields
Pipe system
US Prim
ary Energy Consumption
(Quadrillion BTU
)
US
Urb
an P
opul
ation
Rati
o
(Per
cent
age
of to
tal p
opul
ation
)
U.S. Urban Population Growth Is Driven by Energy
Age of domestic oil Age of imported oil
Beginning of imported oil era(“Pax Americana”)
Urb
an p
opul
ation
ratio
(%) ?1973 1st Oil Crisis
1978 2nd Oil crisis
1989 collapse of USSR
2007 recession
Deceleration of Urbanization Indicates the Current Status as “Phase 3”
Energy Consumption Fluctuation Signals Transition- If We Know What the New Energy Is!
Time
Ener
gy u
se
Total energy consumption
Energy 1
Energy 2
Improving efficiency
Reducing demand
Decreasing price
Energy Use Vibration
Increasing consumption
Trends in Phase 3:Virtual Urbanization Driven by Time and Information
City
“Virtual” metropolitan
Suburban
Broad band Wireless connection
Servers Shipping system
Actually, It’s Oil Substitution with Time, Information, and Computing Power (TIC)
Energy-consuming TIC-enriched
Mall shopping Cyber shopping
Commuting Work at home
Big meeting Webinar
Land line telephone system Cell phone system
Highway transportation Drone shipment
Mass production 3D printing
Coordination by centralization
Coordination by computing
Fossil Fuel vs. Solar/Wind Energy
Fossil Fuel Solar/Wind
Production rate High Low
Storage cost Low High
Transportation cost Low High
Power generated High Low
Energy supply mode Continuous Intermittent
Converting to materials
Yes No
Impact on environment
High ?
The Path to Get Around Collapse: Adaptation to Life Style Supported by Low-Power Renewable Energy
Local power station (solar,
wind, etc.)
Computing power &Infrastructure for scaling up
coordination
Manufacturing based on recycled
materials
Limited transportation
Energy-efficient agriculture
Local community
How Driverless Cars Can Become Solar-Powered
Driverless cars
RadarInter-vehicle communication
Car-signal communication
Safe and light-weight
Low-power engine
Automatically return to a charging station
Solar energy driven
Why Does Society Support Scientific Research?
1
3 4
52
R’ = −k1CRC’= k2CR – k3C
R’ C
Time
Stoc
k of
R o
r Size
of C
R
Phase Type of research
Goal from collective “mentality”
Example
1 Substitution How to utilize new resource to replace old one
Modern physics and organic chemistry in 1920-40s.
2 Expansion How to utilize the abundant resource to drive everything
Electronics and molecular biology in 1940-1980s.
3 Efficiency How to improve efficiency of the current procedures
Computer science and material science in 1980-1990s.
4 Exploration Searching for the replacement for current energy
Earth science, data science, informatics, and communication since 2000.
The New Energy for Cities: Not Oil for the Future, Not Renewable Energy Soon, Then
What?
High population densityRelative short travel distanceInformation transmissionAdaptability to new technologyEfficient education system
Current Features of Metropolitans
Life Style of Renewable/ Low-Power Society
Self-sufficient home energyInformation system for working in homeLimited travel distanceLocal and focused agricultureRecycle-based home manufacturing technologyRemote medical care systemCommunity support
Transition to Renewable energy
Solar and wind powerManufacture based on recycled materialLocal power stationSystem integration by computing power
THE FUTURE IS NOW