impact of mega-events on hotel performance - ahic 2014

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Page 1: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014
Page 2: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Impact of mega-events on hotel performance Elizabeth Winkle, Managing Director STR Global

Page 3: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Dubai Currently Ranks Amongst Highest ADR Cities

ADR and %Chg in USD, YE 2013

-1.3% -0.5%

+4.8%

-12.5% +3.4%

-4.3%

-3.2% -1.7%

-1.1% +6.5%

+3.0%

+4.0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Beijing Shanghai Los Angeles Tokyo Milan Sydney GreaterLondon

Hong Kong Singapore Dubai New York Paris

Page 4: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Supply % Chg Demand % Chg

Dubai Peak Supply Growth

12 MMA YE 2006 – Jun 2015, % change

Page 5: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Dubai Occ/ADR % Change

12 month moving average YE 2005 to February 2014, in USD

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Occ % Chg ADR % Chg

Page 6: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

-7 years -6 years -5 years -4 years -3 years -2 years -1 year Expo Year

Shanghai Milan Dubai Forecast Dubai Scenario

Build up to Expo

Index of supply growth

Page 7: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Occupancy peaks at Expo start, ADR peaks at closing

YOY Occ, ADR % Jan’09 -Mar ’14 (Shanghai excluding Econ Class)

¥500

¥550

¥600

¥650

¥700

¥750

¥800

¥850

¥900

¥950

¥1,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jan

YR

-1

Mar

YR

-1

May

YR

- 1

Jul Y

R -

1

Sep

YR

-1

No

v YR

-1

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

YR

+ 1

Mar

YR

+ 1

May

YR

+ 1

Jul Y

R +

1

Sep

YR

+ 1

No

v YR

+ 1

Jan

YR

+ 2

Mar

YR

+ 2

May

YR

+ 2

Jul Y

R +

2

Sep

t YR

+ 2

No

v YR

+ 2

Jan

YR

+ 3

Mar

YR

+ 3

May

YR

+ 3

Jul Y

R +

3

Sep

t YR

+ 3

No

v YR

+ 3

Jan

YR

+ 4

Mar

YR

+4

Occ ADR

Page 8: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Often More Displacement than Demand

Total Demand and % Changes, YE of each Olympic city

+0.8%

-1.3%

+9.6%

-5.9% +2.6%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Atlanta Sydney Athens Beijing Greater London

Mill

ion

s

Page 9: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Occupancy Below 90%

Occupancy by month during Olympic Year

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Atlanta '96 Sydney '00 Athens '04 Beijing '08 London '12

Page 10: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Concentrated Rate Growth During Olympics

ADR % Chg, in local currency, YOY during Olympic year

-25%

25%

75%

125%

175%

225%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Atlanta '96 Sydney '00 Athens '04 Beijing '08 London'12

Page 11: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

ADR Gains, Occupancy Declines

Occ and ADR % Chg, local currency

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

Atlanta '96

Sydney '00

Athens '04

Beijing '08

London '12

OCC

ADR

Page 12: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Mixed RevPAR Results, Athens benefitted from games timing and limited supply

YE of each Olympic each year, RevPAR and % Chg in USD

+8.1%

-5.4%

+51.5%

+6.0%

+1.4%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

Atlanta Sydney Athens Beijing London

Page 13: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

0.5%

5.4%

December 2013

December 2013

Actual Performance

Actual Performance

Olympic Legacy London becomes the first city to achieve post-Olympic RevPAR growth in YR +1

LONDON

REGIONAL UK

Page 14: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Rising Tides

Q1 2014 RevPAR % change

Page 15: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Global picture Supply & Demand

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

North America Central- South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania

Supply Demand

Supply & Demand % Change, March 2014 YTD

Page 16: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Spotlight Middle East & Africa

Market performance – Occ %, ADR $ and RevPAR $, March 2014 YTD

Northern Africa

Occ 44.4% -8.3%

ADR $ 80 -4.0%

RevPAR $ 36 -11.9% Southern Africa

Occ 61.4% -0.3%

ADR $ 133 -2.5%

RevPAR $ 82 -2.7%

Middle East

Occ 75.1% +3.3%

ADR $ 220 +2.2%

RevPAR $ 165 +5.6%

Page 17: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

MEA Classes Occ and ADR

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy

Occ 13 Occ 14 ADR 13 ADR 14+1.2

+2.5 -0.4

+0.0

March 2013 & 2014 YTD, in USD

+6.5

+2.0 +0.7 +0.2 +1.7 +2.6

Page 18: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

MEA Markets Occ, ADR % Chg

March 2014 YTD, in local currency

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Abu Dhabi Amman Beirut Cairo CapeTown

Doha Dubai Jeddah Lagos Manama Muscat Nairobi Riyadh Sandtonand Surrd.

Occupancy ADR

Page 19: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

MEA Markets Occ, ADR

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cairo Beirut Nairobi Lagos Manama Amman Sandtonand

Surrd.

Riyadh Jeddah AbuDhabi

Doha CapeTown

Muscat Dubai

Occupancy ADR

March 2014 YTD, in USD

Page 20: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Accelerating Pipeline

Pipeline % increase # of rooms

+7%

+16%

+3%

+40%

+15% +8%

Page 21: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Accelerating Pipeline

Global Pipeline # of Rooms

Under Contract:

+1.16 million

In Construction +513k Final Planning +270k Planning +380k

MEA +137k

Saudi Arabia +34.9k UAE +34.7k Qatar +9.0k Morocco +6.6k Oman +5.0K

Upper Upscale Chains +47.8k Luxury Chains +26.9k Upscale Chains +25.0k Upper Midscale +9.8k Midscale +5.7k Economy +1.1k

Page 22: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

Opportunities in Africa No Branded Supply (Red) Angola Burundi Central African Republic Comoros Democratic Republic of Congo Eritrea Liberia Mauritania Niger Republic of Congo Sierra Leone Somalia South Sudan

One African Brand (Blue) Burkina Faso (1 hotel) Guinea Bissau (1 hotel) Lesotho (2 hotels) Malawi (1 hotel) Rwanda (2 hotels) Swaziland (3 hotels)

Source: STR Global

March 2014

Page 23: Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

THANK YOU