impact of mega-events on hotel performance - ahic 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Impact of mega-events on hotel performance Elizabeth Winkle, Managing Director STR Global
Dubai Currently Ranks Amongst Highest ADR Cities
ADR and %Chg in USD, YE 2013
-1.3% -0.5%
+4.8%
-12.5% +3.4%
-4.3%
-3.2% -1.7%
-1.1% +6.5%
+3.0%
+4.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Beijing Shanghai Los Angeles Tokyo Milan Sydney GreaterLondon
Hong Kong Singapore Dubai New York Paris
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Supply % Chg Demand % Chg
Dubai Peak Supply Growth
12 MMA YE 2006 – Jun 2015, % change
Dubai Occ/ADR % Change
12 month moving average YE 2005 to February 2014, in USD
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Occ % Chg ADR % Chg
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
-7 years -6 years -5 years -4 years -3 years -2 years -1 year Expo Year
Shanghai Milan Dubai Forecast Dubai Scenario
Build up to Expo
Index of supply growth
Occupancy peaks at Expo start, ADR peaks at closing
YOY Occ, ADR % Jan’09 -Mar ’14 (Shanghai excluding Econ Class)
¥500
¥550
¥600
¥650
¥700
¥750
¥800
¥850
¥900
¥950
¥1,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan
YR
-1
Mar
YR
-1
May
YR
- 1
Jul Y
R -
1
Sep
YR
-1
No
v YR
-1
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
YR
+ 1
Mar
YR
+ 1
May
YR
+ 1
Jul Y
R +
1
Sep
YR
+ 1
No
v YR
+ 1
Jan
YR
+ 2
Mar
YR
+ 2
May
YR
+ 2
Jul Y
R +
2
Sep
t YR
+ 2
No
v YR
+ 2
Jan
YR
+ 3
Mar
YR
+ 3
May
YR
+ 3
Jul Y
R +
3
Sep
t YR
+ 3
No
v YR
+ 3
Jan
YR
+ 4
Mar
YR
+4
Occ ADR
Often More Displacement than Demand
Total Demand and % Changes, YE of each Olympic city
+0.8%
-1.3%
+9.6%
-5.9% +2.6%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Atlanta Sydney Athens Beijing Greater London
Mill
ion
s
Occupancy Below 90%
Occupancy by month during Olympic Year
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Atlanta '96 Sydney '00 Athens '04 Beijing '08 London '12
Concentrated Rate Growth During Olympics
ADR % Chg, in local currency, YOY during Olympic year
-25%
25%
75%
125%
175%
225%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Atlanta '96 Sydney '00 Athens '04 Beijing '08 London'12
ADR Gains, Occupancy Declines
Occ and ADR % Chg, local currency
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Atlanta '96
Sydney '00
Athens '04
Beijing '08
London '12
OCC
ADR
Mixed RevPAR Results, Athens benefitted from games timing and limited supply
YE of each Olympic each year, RevPAR and % Chg in USD
+8.1%
-5.4%
+51.5%
+6.0%
+1.4%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Atlanta Sydney Athens Beijing London
0.5%
5.4%
December 2013
December 2013
Actual Performance
Actual Performance
Olympic Legacy London becomes the first city to achieve post-Olympic RevPAR growth in YR +1
LONDON
REGIONAL UK
Rising Tides
Q1 2014 RevPAR % change
Global picture Supply & Demand
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
North America Central- South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania
Supply Demand
Supply & Demand % Change, March 2014 YTD
Spotlight Middle East & Africa
Market performance – Occ %, ADR $ and RevPAR $, March 2014 YTD
Northern Africa
Occ 44.4% -8.3%
ADR $ 80 -4.0%
RevPAR $ 36 -11.9% Southern Africa
Occ 61.4% -0.3%
ADR $ 133 -2.5%
RevPAR $ 82 -2.7%
Middle East
Occ 75.1% +3.3%
ADR $ 220 +2.2%
RevPAR $ 165 +5.6%
MEA Classes Occ and ADR
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy
Occ 13 Occ 14 ADR 13 ADR 14+1.2
+2.5 -0.4
+0.0
March 2013 & 2014 YTD, in USD
+6.5
+2.0 +0.7 +0.2 +1.7 +2.6
MEA Markets Occ, ADR % Chg
March 2014 YTD, in local currency
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Abu Dhabi Amman Beirut Cairo CapeTown
Doha Dubai Jeddah Lagos Manama Muscat Nairobi Riyadh Sandtonand Surrd.
Occupancy ADR
MEA Markets Occ, ADR
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cairo Beirut Nairobi Lagos Manama Amman Sandtonand
Surrd.
Riyadh Jeddah AbuDhabi
Doha CapeTown
Muscat Dubai
Occupancy ADR
March 2014 YTD, in USD
Accelerating Pipeline
Pipeline % increase # of rooms
+7%
+16%
+3%
+40%
+15% +8%
Accelerating Pipeline
Global Pipeline # of Rooms
Under Contract:
+1.16 million
In Construction +513k Final Planning +270k Planning +380k
MEA +137k
Saudi Arabia +34.9k UAE +34.7k Qatar +9.0k Morocco +6.6k Oman +5.0K
Upper Upscale Chains +47.8k Luxury Chains +26.9k Upscale Chains +25.0k Upper Midscale +9.8k Midscale +5.7k Economy +1.1k
Opportunities in Africa No Branded Supply (Red) Angola Burundi Central African Republic Comoros Democratic Republic of Congo Eritrea Liberia Mauritania Niger Republic of Congo Sierra Leone Somalia South Sudan
One African Brand (Blue) Burkina Faso (1 hotel) Guinea Bissau (1 hotel) Lesotho (2 hotels) Malawi (1 hotel) Rwanda (2 hotels) Swaziland (3 hotels)
Source: STR Global
March 2014
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